I will post this every Monday, and I’ve added it to the top menu bar (at top of your browser window, just right of center). This way, you can quickly access it for the remainder of the week. I am pulling a screenshot from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar
Author Archives: Jeff
Econ Calendar this week
It’s all about FOMC on Wednesday…
Options Expiration 9/16/16
— Expiring —
$SVXY 85 calls
$UVXY 30 calls
A few trades today…
#Earnings #CoveredPuts STO $FB Oct 7th 125 covered put for 1.10
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Oct 21st 55 call for .84. Sold for 4.25 on Aug 2nd.
#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Sept 16th 23 puts for 4.45 and 5.20. Sold for 1.45 on Aug 26th.
Rolled to: Sept 30th 16 puts for 1.00, and waiting for fills on others.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2240/2265 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Sept 6th.
UVXY call
#VXXGame Was trying to get a few of the new 45’s but only filled on one: STO $UVXY Nov 45 call for 3.25
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Oct 14th 1980/1955 puts for 1.50, with SPX at 2133.
SPX call sold
#SPXcampaign Selling some extra call spreads above all time highs.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2220/2245 call spreads for 2.30 (adding to this one at higher premium)
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.75
AVGO covered call
#Earnings #CoveredCalls STO $AVGO Oct 21st 175 covered call for 3.30.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2235/2260 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 2.
SPX calls sold
Sold to open $SPX Oct 14th 2220/2245 call spreads for 1.60, with SPX at 2128.
Third signal fired on VIX Indicator
#VIXindicator A third signal just fired, after the two on Friday, as VIX is up 25% from yesterday’s close.
Of the 36 corrections since 1/1/2000, a third signal fired 29 times. A fourth signal fired 22 times. So based on that data there is just under a 25% chance that we’ve reached the bottom of the correction.
VXXgame trades
#VXXGame These are my first volatility sales in this correction:
STO $VXX Oct 21st 65 calls for 1.10
STO $UVXY Sept 15th 30 calls for .70
STO $UVXY Dec 55 call for 4.40
STO $UVXY Jan 2017 60 call for 5.10
SPX put roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Oct 7th 1980/1955 put spreads for 1.80, with SPX at 2124. This is a roll from Sept 30th put spreads stopped on Friday for 2.60. I used 1.5x position size for a small overall credit on the roll.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 1950/1925 put spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2129.
SPX ITM roll
#SPXcampaign I’ve been rolling this one for a few weeks, started as the Aug 18th 2130/2165. I waited until one week before expiry and roll 5-points higher, adding an additional call or put spread as necessary to make up for lost premium in each roll.
This week is the first time I’m making the roll while the full spread is OTM. This allowed me to jump 15 points higher. Now I can roll the spread higher when and if the short strike becomes ATM.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 15th 2150/2175 call spreads for 6.00. Sold for 19.50 last Tuesday.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2165/2190 call spreads for 6.00.
Closing Sept VIX calls
Since these long calls expire next week, I’m dumping now with small profit rather than watch them drain to nothing. I’ve started an October VIX position at the same strike, so I will add to that as price drops.
STC $VIX Sept 20th 14 calls for 2.00. Bought for 1.75 (avg price) over the last month.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 5th 2215/2240 call spreads for 1.70. This is a #ReverseRoll from the Sept 23rd 2050/2025 put spreads stopped on Friday for 2.55. I used extra contracts to give me a credit on the roll.
If this morning was the bottom, I still believe it will be unlikely to get up above 2200 by early October.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2135.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2245/2270 calls for .20. Sold for 1.35 on Aug 29th.
Looking to sell calls this morning, and wait to sell puts at lower levels.
VIX Indicator
A DOWNSIDE WARNING is in effect.
It was established Friday, when VIX exceeded 14.93 (25% above the 2-day low), and 16.53 (50% above August 9 low).
Since 1/1/2000, there have been 36 downside warnings. The subsequent high in the VIX is reached on an average of 12 trading days after the Warning, which in this case would be Sept 27th. The range has been from zero days (happened 3 times) to a max of 50 days (in 2007).
After the Warning, there is usually at least some upside retracement in the SPX before the VIX high is reached, but it is usually minimal and early. The average SPX rally high is only 1.9% above the Warning-day low, and happens on an average of 4 days after the warning. This would mean a high of 2168.24 reached this coming Thursday, before we collapse to new lows. Again, this is based on averages.
Additional signals that occur now will indicate worsening conditions, but also could signal a correction bottom. Monday’s next signals are 21.88 (25% above Friday’s close), and 22.04 (100% above Aug 9th low). After a warning there is a 86% chance at least one more signal will fire, and only an 8.3% chance that the Warning day is also the VIX high.
VIX low was 11.02 on Aug 9th; VIX high Friday was is 17.54. To cancel the Downside Warning, we must have one close below the 78.6% Fib retracement, which is 12.42. This level will change anytime the VIX hits a new intraday high.
Let me know if there are any questions! #VIXIndicator
Options Expiration 9/9/16
–Expiring —
$SPX Sept 9th 2120/2095 puts, sold for 1.90 on Aug 19th
$SPX Sept 9th 2200/2225 calls, sold for 8.00 on Aug 22nd
Should (finally) be an exciting market next week! I’ll be posting more data on the VIX Indicator and the current correction over the weekend.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign With such an ugly close I see a very high chance that any short put spreads will open Monday at least a dollar further in the hole. So,
Bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.55. Sold for 1.25 on Aug 24th. I will look to roll next week. This leaves me with only 4 put spreads going into next week, as opposed to 8 call spreads.
SPX Calls sold
#SPXcampaign i have been trying to sell the 2220/2245 calls all day, but price kept slipping lower. So I threw in the towel and moved a strike lower.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2215/2240 call spreads for 1.50.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign This one did not quite hit my 3.00 stop, but because the Downside Warning fired, I closed it early.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.60. Sold for 1.50 on Aug 30th.
I will wait to roll this on Monday, unless we rally into close today in which case I will reverse-roll into calls.
Downside Warning Fired
#VIXIndicator And there we have it… a full warning to the downside. Two signals hit today.
More downside expected in the coming days and weeks. It is very rare for the day of a warning firing to be the low.
We may hit a Warning…
We may hit a Warning today after all… 16.53 level in sight
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign #reverseroll
Bought to close $SPX Sept 21st 2125/2100 put spreads for 4.20. Sold for 1.90 on Wednesday.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 28th 2190/2215 call spreads for 4.50.
This shifts the risk to the upside at around the all-time high, with no position size increase and a .30 credit.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign – Sold another standard spread and a roll
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.40.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2025/2000 put spreads for 2.10, rolled from Oct 7th spread stopped earlier, 1.5x position size.
Downside signal fired
#VIXIndicator The VIX has hit 14.93, which is 25% above the 2-day VIX closing low (11.94 close from Wednesday). This meets the criteria to fire a downside signal on the Bistro Vix Indicator. A second signal will mean we get a downside warning, which puts us on the defensive for lower SPX prices.
This signal also cancels the Upside Warning that has been in effect since July 8th.
Based on data since the beginning of 2000, there is a 72% chance we will go further down in the markets and hit a Downside Warning.
SPX puts stopped, VIX Indicator
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2075/2050 put spreads for 2.85. Sold for 1.55 on Tuesday.
Will look to roll this later today. Also trying to stop out of a Sept 21st put spread at the moment.
The VIX intraday high so far is only .11 short from firing a VIX Indicator signal. A second signal is required for a Downside Warning, but that level for today would be 16.53, so it’s unlikely we’ll get a warning today.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Sept 15th 2215/2240 calls for .20. Sold for 2.40 on Aug 29th.
Bought to close SPX Sept 23rd 2240/2265 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on Aug 26th.
TLT adding
#LongCalls Only trade today was adding to these positions:
BTO $TLT Sept 23rd 138 call for 1.40 Position cost basis 1.79.
BTO $TLT Oct 21st 140 call for 1.40. Position cost basis 1.69.
Moved!
We are in our new house in North Portland… buried in boxes and unplaced furniture, but we are here!
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX 2140/2115 put spreads for .20. Sold for 3.35 on Aug 19th.
SPX put spread sold
#SPXcampaign Selling an extra spread in the Sept 21st (Wednesday) series since I sold some calls there yesterday. When SPX was at 2180, sold to open $SPX Sept 21st 2125/2100 put spreads for 1.90.
Rolling protection
BTO $VIX Oct 18th 14 call for 2.40. I’m holding Sept 14 calls which are draining of value, so I’m shifting the position to October. I will wait to sell the Septembers for less of a loss on any vol spikes we get.
SPX puts sold, then puts closed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2075/2050 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2184.
Bought to close SPX Sept 15th 2075/2050 puts for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Aug 16th
NUGT stock sold
#ContangoETFs Sold to close NUGT stock for 25.00. Assigned via 22 puts on 8/26.
SVXY trade closed after 21 months
#VXXGame BTC $SVXY Jan 2017 40 puts for 1.80. Sold for 9.20, avg price, in Nov/Dec 2014.
SPX calls sold, puts closed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2240/2265 call spreads for 1.55.
Bought to close SPX Sept 15th 2065/2040 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Aug 24th.
NUGT calls added
#ContangoETFs Quite a different week shaping up for NUGT.
STO NUGT Oct 7th 30 calls for 1.50
TLT add
#LongCalls Earlier on the small morning dip, added to my TLT long calls:
BTO TLT Sept 23rd 138 call for 1.85
BTO TLT Oct 21st 140 call for 1.70
SPX ITM rolling
#SPXCampaign My weekly ITM roll-out continues, so far so good. My short has moved from 2130 to now 2150. If a correction doesn’t close the whole thing, I will eventually be able to roll out by moving up 5 points per week.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 9th 2145/2170 call spreads for 22.00. Sold for 17.50 on Aug 26th.
Sold to open $SPX Sept 15th 2150/2175 call spreads for 19.50, and to make up for the roll debit:
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 21st 2210/2235 calls for 3.25.
Options Expiration 9/2/16
— Expired —
$NUGT 17 puts
$PANW 122/127/155/160 iron condors
$SPX 2125/2100 put spreads
— Assigned —
$AVGO 177.5 puts, assigned stock
AVGO earnings
#Earnings Closed half of my $AVGO Sept 2nd 177.5 puts for 4.50 before the close, so a 2.20 loss (from 177.5/172.5 put spread sold yesterday for 2.30). Then I saw something shiny and didn’t close the other half on time, so I will be assigned some shares.
NUGT closing
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Sept 2nd 21 puts for .10, to avoid possible assignment.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Everyone was waiting for these job numbers; volatility is being drained out of positions and GTC orders are filling…
Bought to close $SPX Sept 9th 2210/2235 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.70 on Aug 26th.
TLT long calls
#LongCalls Started a $TLT position. This pullback is within the uptrend channel.
BTO TLT Sept 23rd 138 calls for 1.95
BTO TLT Oct 21st 140 calls for 1.82
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open SPX Sept 23rd 2210/2235 call spreads for 4.75
Sold to Open SPX Sept 30th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.60
SPX closed trades in pre-market
#SPXcampaign A couple filled in middle of night, and more after the jobs number was released:
3:10am ET Bought to close SPX Sept 2nd 2175/2200 calls for 3.50. Sold for 14.40 on Aug 9th (as a roll).
3:24am ET Bought to close SPX Sept 15th 2235/2260 calls for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Aug 18th.
8:30am ET Bought to close SPX Sept 9th 2060/2035 puts for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Aug 10th.
8:33am ET Bought to close SPX Sept 2nd 2140/2115 puts for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Tuesday.
9:01am ET Bought to close SPX Sept 9th 2080/2055 puts for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Aug 12th.
I still think down on…
I still think down on SPX today, but likely up on Gold/NUGT
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart are updated
#Market Tomorrow, my guess we’ll get a decent job number, and it will give us an initial pop in the pre-market…. but I believe it will fade and we will end the day down. I don’t have a ton of conviction in it, however; will be ready to play either direction. But I believe near-term risk is more to downside.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2010/1985 put spreads for 1.30, when SPX was at 2157. I bottom-picked this one nicely, and I wasn’t even home at the time!
More NUGT rolling
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Sept 2nd 21 put for 2.10 and Sept 16th 23 put for 4.60.
STO Sept 30th 25 calls for 1.35. More rolling to come.
NUGT rolls
#ContangoETFs BTC Sept 2nd 21 put for 2.60, and Sept 16th 23 put for 5.00. These are ITM and starting to unwind them. I had 5 contracts on each (from the split), doing one at a time. Will look to #ReverseRoll or #StrangleRoll.
NUGT popping up
NUGT popping up
AVGO and AMBA
#Earnings AVGO: Going for a Sept 2nd 177.5/172.5 put spread for 2.30. Will need some intraday down movement for the fill.
AMBA: Trying the old fashion naked strangle: Sept 2nd 65/79 are outside it’s max historical moves. Asking .95, no fill yet.
Earnings today
#Earnings $AMBA and $AVGO on deck… AVGO has been pretty bullish on recent earnings; I’ve had winning put credit spreads last 2 quarters. AMBA less predictable. What are you considering for trades?
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart are updated
It looks like we could be “creeping” up on a downside warning. This happens when we have no days that are violently volatile but the VIX slowly rises and hits 50% increase over its most recent low.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2140/2115 put spreads for 1.30, w/SPX at 2169. Short-termer expiring Friday.
CRM earnings
#Earnings CRM on deck after the close… fairly bullish moves over last three years. Share your trade ideas!
Average move: 6.4%
May 18, 2016 AC 4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC 11.03%
Nov. 18, 2015 AC 4.25%
Aug. 20, 2015 AC 1.96%
May 20, 2015 AC 3.91%
Feb. 25, 2015 AC 11.72%
Nov. 19, 2014 AC -4.45%
Aug. 21, 2014 AC 7.34%
May 20, 2014 AC -5.10%
Feb. 27, 2014 AC -5.81%
Nov. 18, 2013 AC -4.99%
Aug. 29, 2013 AC 12.55%
VIX Indicator and SPX position…
VIX Indicator and SPX position chart have been updated
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2050/2025 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2174.
PANW earnings trade
#Earnings Thanks to Bobbie for helping find the strikes….
Sold to Open $PANW Sept 2nd 122/127/155/160 iron condor for 1.25. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 10.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -12.4%, Average move: 6.1%. My short strikes are 11% and 8.6% OTM respectively. Definitely more risk to upside, can try the 157.5/162.50 as an alternative.
PANW earnings
#Earnings If the indices and gold look boring again, maybe we can find something in $PANW earnings. It’s average move has been about 6%, although last quarter it had an outlier -12% move DOWN. Considering a condor with shorts at 135 and 148, giving me 1.83, risking 3.17. Breakevens about 6% up or down.
Any other thoughts?
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 31st 2140/2115 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.45 on Aug 12th.
More SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 15th 2215/2240 call spreads for 2.40, with SPX at 2178. This is the second part of my ITM roll from Friday; I needed an extra 1.60 to make up for the debit that the roll required to move up a strike. I usually fill that gap with puts, but since we are up today and call spreads have been working brilliantly, I replaced the call spread that closed early this morning with this roll.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2245/2270 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2177.
Perfect time to be selling call spreads. I had the same spread close this morning for .20 with 18 days to expiration, then able to sell one two weeks further out a couple hours later with only a small move in the underlying.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX Sept 15th 2245/2270 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on Aug 15th.
Options Expiration 8/26/16
— Expiring —
NUGT 36 & 40 calls
SPX 2150/2125 put spreads
— Assignment —
NUGT 22 put – one I forgot to close, so taking some stock
— Full Loss —
DG 93.5/95.5/97.5 call butterfly. Did I say bullish? I meant bearish. .30 loss.
Escrow closes in two weeks. Until then we are staying in a friend’s basement. See you Monday everyone!
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Sept 9th 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.70.
SPX continuing ITM roll experiment
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Sept 2nd 2140/2165 call spreads for 19.10. Sold last Friday for 20.45. Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 2145/2170 calls for 17.50.
#Rolling myself out one week at a time, one strike higher each time. Making up the loss in the roll (in this case 1.60) by adding an extra put spread.
NUGT escape attempt
#ContangoEYFs was hoping to get out of these at expiration but having to pay a bit for it. Originally sold for 1.20, effective price (pre-split).
BTC NUGT Aug 26th 22 puts for .25, .70, and possibly more for the rest off it keeps dropping.
Meantime, STO NUGT Sept 23rd 18 puts for 1.50.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2040/2015 put spreads for 1.40. Sold the second half of the weekly campaign today; calls earlier on the pop up and now the puts on the drop down.
