#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2100/2075 put spreads for 2.75. This is an extra spread to offset my call spread with the same expiry. I will stop and roll if we break the Sept 12th low of 2119.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Sept 19th.
Karen SuperTrader saga
Here’s a link to the SEC’s response to request for dismissal. Interesting to read at least the intro in the continuing saga of a revered trader who was allegedly perpetrating fraud.
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/56010098/mtd-opposition-10032016
Open Action
TWTR sinking on rumors; Gold, NUGT sinking further, Bonds sinking further.
What will the jobs data do to this market tomorrow?
VIX indicator and the SPX…
VIX indicator and the SPX chart have been updated
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold an extra call spread above all time highs:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2200/2225 calls for 4.50, with SPX at 2163.
The importance of Monday morning premium
#SPXcampaign On Monday in the first hour of trading, the market was down less than half a percent. I sold the Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spread for 1.40 on an uptick to 2162. 33 days until expiration.
In the first hour today, 31 days to expiration, our intraday high was just below 2162. The same spread topped out at about 80 cents.
I have seen this constantly with call spreads… Monday morning premium is highly elevated, and drops quickly by Monday afternoon. Provided there are no large moves in SPX, theta makes quick work of the premium. This is less dramatic with put spreads, and I have not tested it as much with different expirations (just the 30-35 DTE range).
This is why that I sold that call spread even though the market was down.
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart…
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
DUST added
#ContangoETFs Added another DUST Oct 7th 50 call, sold for 1.85 right before bell, at the high of the day.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2010/1985 put spreads for 1.45, earlier when SPX dipped to 2153.
DUST takes the reigns from NUGT
#ContangoETFs looks like these two might be changing hands as to which has the better action.
STO DUST Oct 7th 50 call for 1.10
#TopoftheChain :
STO DUST Nov 18th 60 call for 3.50
STO Dust Dec 16th 60 call for 5.40
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2220/2245 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Sept 14th.
My order to sell a put spread was surprisingly not filled on that drop.
More SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 1975/1950 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 20th.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2025/2000 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.10 on Sept 9th.
Econ Calendar week of 10/3/16
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 12th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Mondays are a great day to sell the 5-week-out call spreads, even if the market is down a bit. Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2162.
Options Expiration 9/30/15
–Expiring —
$SPX 2185/2205 call spreads
$SPX 2210/2235 call spreads
$NUGT 16 puts
–Full Loss–
$NKE 53/55/57 iron butterfly
More calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2190/2215 call spreads for 3.50. Expire next Friday (or will be rolled if rally continues).
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2210/2235 call spreads for 2.10. Doing the #ReverseRoll of put spreads stopped yesterday. Unless and until yesterday’s VIX Indicator signal is canceled I am fading the rallies.
SPX put roll closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2100/2075 put spreads for 3.35. Sold for 2.10 last Thursday. This one hit my 4.00 stop on Monday and again today, and you don’t have to tell me twice… okay, maybe you do, but you don’t have to tell me three times to get out when stops are hit.
SPX condor corrupted
#SPXcampaign Bought to close Sept 30th 2050/2030 put spreads for 4.30. Sold a couple hours ago with a call spread for 1.50. Quick loss, but that’s the risk of these short-term trades. Will look to roll.
Downside Signal Fired
#Market #VIXIndicator Things suddenly look dark… DB and all banks continue dropping. After last Thursday’s Downside Warning cancelation, we have a new signal this Thursday. It takes two signals for a Warning. Next level today is 16.53.
I’m looking to exit the put side of the condor I entered earlier… immediate loss on that one!
Market
Deutsche Bank (DB) is down over 6%, putting pressure on all banks (XLF) and the market. Bonds (TLT) and VIX (UVXY) soaring.
AVGO covered call
#Earnings #LongStock #CoveredCalls
STO $AVGO Oct 28th 177.5 call for 2.00.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2158.
And a minute later it’s at 2153. Whoa.
SPX next day condor
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2130/2150/2185/2205 iron condors for 1.50. Expire tomorrow. Thanks @rknight52 for the inspiration.
FB covered put
#Earnings #CoveredPuts #ShortStock
And my short stock position continues. Someday my cost basis will equal the stock price…. some day.
STO $FB Oct 21st 126 covered put for 1.25.
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position Chart are updated.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2171.
SPX call rolling
#SPXcampaign This is a partial roll of the ITM roll that’s going into its third month. At least now I am selling OTM spreads, albeit pretty close.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2185/2210 call spreads for 7.60.
I closed a spread last week for 13.75. Sold a 2.00 put spread and now this, so 9.60 total and 4.25 more to go.
Oregon Ducks
For those of you discussing NKE and the Oregon Ducks, my stepson is the second guy from the right.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 9th.
NKE earnings trade
#Earnings BTC NKE Sept 30th 55 calls for .10. Now need a rally back to 55 to close the puts.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 1980/1955 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 16th.
NKE earnings
#Earnings For the earnings 53/55/57 iron butterfly, the best outcome would be to get the down flush today, followed by buying into Friday. You may consider closing the short 55 call today, currently going for .25. This will increase your risk by .25 but allow an easier exit should we rally into Friday.
I will look for a deeper flush and consider closing the 55 call if I can get closer to .10.
NKE movement
#Earnings volatility but looking decent for our neutral trades.
VIX Indicator and SPX chart…
VIX Indicator and SPX chart updated
NKE earnings
#Earnings Neutral play on NKE… needs to end the week between 53.50 and 58.50. Max risk, .43, max gain 1.57. Thanks @rknight52 for the idea.
Sold to open $NKE Sept 30th 53/55/57 iron butterfly for 1.57.
Buy 1x 57 call
Sell 1x 55 call
Sell 1x 55 put
Buy 1x 53 put
Recent 1-day moves on NKE earnings:
June 28, 2016 AC 3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.36%
Sept. 24, 2015 AC 8.89%
June 25, 2015 AC 4.26%
March 19, 2015 AC 3.72%
Dec. 18, 2014 AC -2.30%
Sept. 25, 2014 AC 12.22%
June 26, 2014 AC 1.06%
March 20, 2014 AC -5.12%
Dec. 19, 2013 AC -1.17%
Sept. 26, 2013 AC 4.69%
Average move: 4.5%
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2159.
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart updated
#VIXIndicator Today we were denied a third consecutive close below the 78.5 line on the VIX (13.05), so there is no Upside Warning.
The market may react to tonight’s debate; I lean a bit bullish in sentiment as I believe it could be sell the anticipation then relax and resume buying after it’s over. But that’s only a guess and I don’t expect to be very surprised by anything tomorrow… just ready to trade it.
If there is a negative reaction, it will likely fire a signal and put us on a correction watch again.
SPX calls spreads closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 5th 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.75 on Sept 12th.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 28th 2190/2215 call spreads for .20. Sold for 4.50 on Sept 9th.
Econ Calendar for Week of Sept 26
This is quickly accessible in the menu bar, above (top/right-of-center).
FB put sold
#CoveredPuts STO $FB Oct 14th 125 put for 1.45
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2151.
Options Expiration 9/23/16
#OptionsExpiration It’s been a good month with the small correction backing me out of pressured call positions. But still got stuck paying up to close one yesterday that would have expired worthless today.
— Expiring w/max gain —
NUGT 18 puts
NUGT 25 and 30 calls
SPX 2090/2065 put spreads. Sold for 1.70 on Wednesday
SPX 2110/2235 call spreads. Sold for 4.75 on Sept 2nd
— Expiring w/max loss —
TLT 138 long calls
NUGT calls closed
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Sept 30th 25 calls for .20. Sold for 1.00 on 9/16.
Thrilling day!
SPX ITM rolls
#SPXcampaign The Position chart is now updated.
Yesterday I had to stop out of this week’s 2165/2190 for 13.75. I didn’t get filled on attempts to roll to a new call spread. The only partial reverse-roll I got was:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2100/2075 put spreads for 2.10.
Was hoping for more strength this morning to get a call spread… will do my best to make up the premium.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator With today’s close below the 78.6% Fib line on the VIX chart, the downside warning is canceled.
Of the 36 VIX Indicator corrections since 2000, a canceled Downside Warning led to an Upside Warning 26 times, or 72%. An Upside Warning occurs after three consecutive closes below the 78.6 line, which currently is 13.05 on the VIX. The average time between a canceled Downside Warning and an Upside Warning is 5.7 trading days.
(For the 10 times an Upside Warning did not follow, it was an average of 16 trading days until a new Downside signal).
We are still using the VIX Aug 9th low of 11.02. The levels for new Downside signals to fire are 15.03 (25% above 2-day closing low), and 16.53 (50% above Aug 9 low).
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 2050/2025 put spreads for 1.30, earlier when SPX was at 2173.
AZO earnings
#Earnings The small move is a thing of beauty. With 30 days to expiry, I have orders in to close naked options at .20, and the iron condors at .40. Will close earlier if margin becomes an issue, or if price starts moving dramatically.
TICK highs
On TC2000 charting, the opening TICK this morning was the highest reading since June of 2013. This will differ in other platforms, but indicates very strong buy programs.
Every time I’m almost out, they pull me back in
Well, looks like the ITM rolling goes on. Was previously able to roll my ITM call spread up to a 2165 short… It went ITM again this morning, and this close to expiration I cannot wait to see how the week will end as the spread price will increase very quickly if SPX continues to rise.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 2165/2190 call spreads for 13.75. Sold for 6.00 last week.
I will look to roll into a condor later this morning. Another week, another roll!
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign
Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 1980/1955 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.80 on Sept 13th (as a roll).
Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2000/1975 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.33 on Sept 9th.
Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 1950/1925 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.33 on Sept 13th.
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position chart have been updated
We almost canceled the Downside Warning today, when the VIX dipped below 13.05 Fib line, but then closed above it. Thursday will tell us if it’s over or if uncertainty will linger.
SPX calls expired
#OptionsExpiration 9/21/16 (Wednesday Weeklys)
$SPX Sept 21st 2210/2235 call spreads expired. Sold for 3.25 on Sept 6th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2164.
Volatility crashing
#VIXIndicator If we close below 13.05 the Downside Warning will be canceled.
SPX puts drained
#SPXcampaign The Sept 23rd 2090/2065 put spread i sold 1.70 ninety minutes ago is now going for .25. I love the smell of fear in the markets.
Also: Bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2010/1985 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 1st.
VXX calls closed
#VXXGame BTC $VXX Oct 21st 65 calls for .20. Sold for 1.10 on Sept 13th.
NUGT calls
#contangoetfs – Expiring this Friday…
STO NUGT Sept 23rd 24 calls for .35
STO NUGT Sept 23rd 25 calls for .25
No change. No surprise.
No change. No surprise.
SPX same-week puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2090/2065 put spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2142. Expire in two days unless the world explodes.
Another RGLD call sold
#CoveredCalls #Earnings Moved up a strike to sell another. Cost basis on stock is about 83.00
Sold to Open RGLD Oct 21st 85 call for 2.45.
SPX puts rich
#SPXcampaign Put premiums on Options expiring this Friday are pretty rich. I’m selling the Sept 23rd 2090/2065 spread… asking 1.80.
I believe today’s announcement will lead to near-term upside. But even if I’m wrong and we drop, I don’t think 2090 is in danger by Friday’s close. If I’m wrong, I will roll.
Playing the FED
Starting at about 1:59pm ET, many of our favorite tickers will start getting nutty. If you like to sell premium, have orders ready on NUGT, UVXY, SPY or SPX, etc as you might get some very good fills with the market reaction to the 2pm announcement.
AZO earnings fill
#Earnings STO $AZO Oct 21st 690/800 strangle for 5.85
AZO, classic earnings trade
#Earnings I call this a “classic” because it is naked selling standard Iceman taught many of us, with my classic earnings trade analysis. There are 31 days until Oct monthly expiration. Over the last 12 reports, AZO’s moves over 34 days: Biggest UP move: 7.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.3%, Average move: 3.9%. (Also note that its maximum swings between 1 & 34 days never exceeded these percentages)
If we give room for its largest move of 7.1%, the 690/800 strangle is at least 7.3% OTM on each side. You can sell that strangle for about 6.00. Of course, you have to have the margin power, and you have to be ready in case we get an outlier move.
The safer bet… a 10-wide condor at same short strikes is about 1.75-2.00.
Thar’s gold in dem thar hills
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Oct 7th 23 call for 1.25
STO NUGT Oct 25th 25 call for 1.25
#CoveredCalls STO RGLD 82.5 covered call for 2.35, adding to my position
Fed statement at 2pm ET,…
Fed statement at 2pm ET, 11am PT
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position Chart (finally) updated
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign At 12 minutes after the close, sold to open $SPX Oct 20th 1975/1950 put spreads for 1.30, on the dip in SPX below the day’s closing price.
RGLD Covered Call
#Earnings #coveredcalls
Sold to Open $RGLD Oct 21st 82.5 covered call for 1.65.
Been stuck with shares from the 84.00 area; neglected to sell calls until now.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Earlier, bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 2040/2015 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Aug 26th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2148.
