#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 9th.
Author Archives: Jeff
NKE earnings trade
#Earnings BTC NKE Sept 30th 55 calls for .10. Now need a rally back to 55 to close the puts.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 1980/1955 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 16th.
NKE earnings
#Earnings For the earnings 53/55/57 iron butterfly, the best outcome would be to get the down flush today, followed by buying into Friday. You may consider closing the short 55 call today, currently going for .25. This will increase your risk by .25 but allow an easier exit should we rally into Friday.
I will look for a deeper flush and consider closing the 55 call if I can get closer to .10.
NKE movement
#Earnings volatility but looking decent for our neutral trades.
VIX Indicator and SPX chart…
VIX Indicator and SPX chart updated
NKE earnings
#Earnings Neutral play on NKE… needs to end the week between 53.50 and 58.50. Max risk, .43, max gain 1.57. Thanks @rknight52 for the idea.
Sold to open $NKE Sept 30th 53/55/57 iron butterfly for 1.57.
Buy 1x 57 call
Sell 1x 55 call
Sell 1x 55 put
Buy 1x 53 put
Recent 1-day moves on NKE earnings:
June 28, 2016 AC 3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.36%
Sept. 24, 2015 AC 8.89%
June 25, 2015 AC 4.26%
March 19, 2015 AC 3.72%
Dec. 18, 2014 AC -2.30%
Sept. 25, 2014 AC 12.22%
June 26, 2014 AC 1.06%
March 20, 2014 AC -5.12%
Dec. 19, 2013 AC -1.17%
Sept. 26, 2013 AC 4.69%
Average move: 4.5%
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2159.
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart updated
#VIXIndicator Today we were denied a third consecutive close below the 78.5 line on the VIX (13.05), so there is no Upside Warning.
The market may react to tonight’s debate; I lean a bit bullish in sentiment as I believe it could be sell the anticipation then relax and resume buying after it’s over. But that’s only a guess and I don’t expect to be very surprised by anything tomorrow… just ready to trade it.
If there is a negative reaction, it will likely fire a signal and put us on a correction watch again.
SPX calls spreads closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 5th 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.75 on Sept 12th.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 28th 2190/2215 call spreads for .20. Sold for 4.50 on Sept 9th.
Econ Calendar for Week of Sept 26
This is quickly accessible in the menu bar, above (top/right-of-center).
FB put sold
#CoveredPuts STO $FB Oct 14th 125 put for 1.45
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2151.
Options Expiration 9/23/16
#OptionsExpiration It’s been a good month with the small correction backing me out of pressured call positions. But still got stuck paying up to close one yesterday that would have expired worthless today.
— Expiring w/max gain —
NUGT 18 puts
NUGT 25 and 30 calls
SPX 2090/2065 put spreads. Sold for 1.70 on Wednesday
SPX 2110/2235 call spreads. Sold for 4.75 on Sept 2nd
— Expiring w/max loss —
TLT 138 long calls
NUGT calls closed
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Sept 30th 25 calls for .20. Sold for 1.00 on 9/16.
Thrilling day!
SPX ITM rolls
#SPXcampaign The Position chart is now updated.
Yesterday I had to stop out of this week’s 2165/2190 for 13.75. I didn’t get filled on attempts to roll to a new call spread. The only partial reverse-roll I got was:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2100/2075 put spreads for 2.10.
Was hoping for more strength this morning to get a call spread… will do my best to make up the premium.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator With today’s close below the 78.6% Fib line on the VIX chart, the downside warning is canceled.
Of the 36 VIX Indicator corrections since 2000, a canceled Downside Warning led to an Upside Warning 26 times, or 72%. An Upside Warning occurs after three consecutive closes below the 78.6 line, which currently is 13.05 on the VIX. The average time between a canceled Downside Warning and an Upside Warning is 5.7 trading days.
(For the 10 times an Upside Warning did not follow, it was an average of 16 trading days until a new Downside signal).
We are still using the VIX Aug 9th low of 11.02. The levels for new Downside signals to fire are 15.03 (25% above 2-day closing low), and 16.53 (50% above Aug 9 low).
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 2050/2025 put spreads for 1.30, earlier when SPX was at 2173.
AZO earnings
#Earnings The small move is a thing of beauty. With 30 days to expiry, I have orders in to close naked options at .20, and the iron condors at .40. Will close earlier if margin becomes an issue, or if price starts moving dramatically.
TICK highs
On TC2000 charting, the opening TICK this morning was the highest reading since June of 2013. This will differ in other platforms, but indicates very strong buy programs.
Every time I’m almost out, they pull me back in
Well, looks like the ITM rolling goes on. Was previously able to roll my ITM call spread up to a 2165 short… It went ITM again this morning, and this close to expiration I cannot wait to see how the week will end as the spread price will increase very quickly if SPX continues to rise.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 2165/2190 call spreads for 13.75. Sold for 6.00 last week.
I will look to roll into a condor later this morning. Another week, another roll!
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign
Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 1980/1955 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.80 on Sept 13th (as a roll).
Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2000/1975 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.33 on Sept 9th.
Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 1950/1925 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.33 on Sept 13th.
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position chart have been updated
We almost canceled the Downside Warning today, when the VIX dipped below 13.05 Fib line, but then closed above it. Thursday will tell us if it’s over or if uncertainty will linger.
SPX calls expired
#OptionsExpiration 9/21/16 (Wednesday Weeklys)
$SPX Sept 21st 2210/2235 call spreads expired. Sold for 3.25 on Sept 6th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2164.
Volatility crashing
#VIXIndicator If we close below 13.05 the Downside Warning will be canceled.
SPX puts drained
#SPXcampaign The Sept 23rd 2090/2065 put spread i sold 1.70 ninety minutes ago is now going for .25. I love the smell of fear in the markets.
Also: Bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2010/1985 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 1st.
VXX calls closed
#VXXGame BTC $VXX Oct 21st 65 calls for .20. Sold for 1.10 on Sept 13th.
NUGT calls
#contangoetfs – Expiring this Friday…
STO NUGT Sept 23rd 24 calls for .35
STO NUGT Sept 23rd 25 calls for .25
No change. No surprise.
No change. No surprise.
SPX same-week puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2090/2065 put spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2142. Expire in two days unless the world explodes.
Another RGLD call sold
#CoveredCalls #Earnings Moved up a strike to sell another. Cost basis on stock is about 83.00
Sold to Open RGLD Oct 21st 85 call for 2.45.
SPX puts rich
#SPXcampaign Put premiums on Options expiring this Friday are pretty rich. I’m selling the Sept 23rd 2090/2065 spread… asking 1.80.
I believe today’s announcement will lead to near-term upside. But even if I’m wrong and we drop, I don’t think 2090 is in danger by Friday’s close. If I’m wrong, I will roll.
Playing the FED
Starting at about 1:59pm ET, many of our favorite tickers will start getting nutty. If you like to sell premium, have orders ready on NUGT, UVXY, SPY or SPX, etc as you might get some very good fills with the market reaction to the 2pm announcement.
AZO earnings fill
#Earnings STO $AZO Oct 21st 690/800 strangle for 5.85
AZO, classic earnings trade
#Earnings I call this a “classic” because it is naked selling standard Iceman taught many of us, with my classic earnings trade analysis. There are 31 days until Oct monthly expiration. Over the last 12 reports, AZO’s moves over 34 days: Biggest UP move: 7.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.3%, Average move: 3.9%. (Also note that its maximum swings between 1 & 34 days never exceeded these percentages)
If we give room for its largest move of 7.1%, the 690/800 strangle is at least 7.3% OTM on each side. You can sell that strangle for about 6.00. Of course, you have to have the margin power, and you have to be ready in case we get an outlier move.
The safer bet… a 10-wide condor at same short strikes is about 1.75-2.00.
Thar’s gold in dem thar hills
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Oct 7th 23 call for 1.25
STO NUGT Oct 25th 25 call for 1.25
#CoveredCalls STO RGLD 82.5 covered call for 2.35, adding to my position
Fed statement at 2pm ET,…
Fed statement at 2pm ET, 11am PT
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position Chart (finally) updated
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign At 12 minutes after the close, sold to open $SPX Oct 20th 1975/1950 put spreads for 1.30, on the dip in SPX below the day’s closing price.
RGLD Covered Call
#Earnings #coveredcalls
Sold to Open $RGLD Oct 21st 82.5 covered call for 1.65.
Been stuck with shares from the 84.00 area; neglected to sell calls until now.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Earlier, bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 2040/2015 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Aug 26th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2148.
Econ Calendar now in top menu
I will post this every Monday, and I’ve added it to the top menu bar (at top of your browser window, just right of center). This way, you can quickly access it for the remainder of the week. I am pulling a screenshot from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar
Econ Calendar this week
It’s all about FOMC on Wednesday…
Options Expiration 9/16/16
— Expiring —
$SVXY 85 calls
$UVXY 30 calls
A few trades today…
#Earnings #CoveredPuts STO $FB Oct 7th 125 covered put for 1.10
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Oct 21st 55 call for .84. Sold for 4.25 on Aug 2nd.
#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Sept 16th 23 puts for 4.45 and 5.20. Sold for 1.45 on Aug 26th.
Rolled to: Sept 30th 16 puts for 1.00, and waiting for fills on others.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2240/2265 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Sept 6th.
UVXY call
#VXXGame Was trying to get a few of the new 45’s but only filled on one: STO $UVXY Nov 45 call for 3.25
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Oct 14th 1980/1955 puts for 1.50, with SPX at 2133.
SPX call sold
#SPXcampaign Selling some extra call spreads above all time highs.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2220/2245 call spreads for 2.30 (adding to this one at higher premium)
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.75
AVGO covered call
#Earnings #CoveredCalls STO $AVGO Oct 21st 175 covered call for 3.30.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2235/2260 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 2.
SPX calls sold
Sold to open $SPX Oct 14th 2220/2245 call spreads for 1.60, with SPX at 2128.
Third signal fired on VIX Indicator
#VIXindicator A third signal just fired, after the two on Friday, as VIX is up 25% from yesterday’s close.
Of the 36 corrections since 1/1/2000, a third signal fired 29 times. A fourth signal fired 22 times. So based on that data there is just under a 25% chance that we’ve reached the bottom of the correction.
VXXgame trades
#VXXGame These are my first volatility sales in this correction:
STO $VXX Oct 21st 65 calls for 1.10
STO $UVXY Sept 15th 30 calls for .70
STO $UVXY Dec 55 call for 4.40
STO $UVXY Jan 2017 60 call for 5.10
SPX put roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Oct 7th 1980/1955 put spreads for 1.80, with SPX at 2124. This is a roll from Sept 30th put spreads stopped on Friday for 2.60. I used 1.5x position size for a small overall credit on the roll.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 1950/1925 put spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2129.
SPX ITM roll
#SPXcampaign I’ve been rolling this one for a few weeks, started as the Aug 18th 2130/2165. I waited until one week before expiry and roll 5-points higher, adding an additional call or put spread as necessary to make up for lost premium in each roll.
This week is the first time I’m making the roll while the full spread is OTM. This allowed me to jump 15 points higher. Now I can roll the spread higher when and if the short strike becomes ATM.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 15th 2150/2175 call spreads for 6.00. Sold for 19.50 last Tuesday.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2165/2190 call spreads for 6.00.
Closing Sept VIX calls
Since these long calls expire next week, I’m dumping now with small profit rather than watch them drain to nothing. I’ve started an October VIX position at the same strike, so I will add to that as price drops.
STC $VIX Sept 20th 14 calls for 2.00. Bought for 1.75 (avg price) over the last month.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 5th 2215/2240 call spreads for 1.70. This is a #ReverseRoll from the Sept 23rd 2050/2025 put spreads stopped on Friday for 2.55. I used extra contracts to give me a credit on the roll.
If this morning was the bottom, I still believe it will be unlikely to get up above 2200 by early October.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2135.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2245/2270 calls for .20. Sold for 1.35 on Aug 29th.
Looking to sell calls this morning, and wait to sell puts at lower levels.
VIX Indicator
A DOWNSIDE WARNING is in effect.
It was established Friday, when VIX exceeded 14.93 (25% above the 2-day low), and 16.53 (50% above August 9 low).
Since 1/1/2000, there have been 36 downside warnings. The subsequent high in the VIX is reached on an average of 12 trading days after the Warning, which in this case would be Sept 27th. The range has been from zero days (happened 3 times) to a max of 50 days (in 2007).
After the Warning, there is usually at least some upside retracement in the SPX before the VIX high is reached, but it is usually minimal and early. The average SPX rally high is only 1.9% above the Warning-day low, and happens on an average of 4 days after the warning. This would mean a high of 2168.24 reached this coming Thursday, before we collapse to new lows. Again, this is based on averages.
Additional signals that occur now will indicate worsening conditions, but also could signal a correction bottom. Monday’s next signals are 21.88 (25% above Friday’s close), and 22.04 (100% above Aug 9th low). After a warning there is a 86% chance at least one more signal will fire, and only an 8.3% chance that the Warning day is also the VIX high.
VIX low was 11.02 on Aug 9th; VIX high Friday was is 17.54. To cancel the Downside Warning, we must have one close below the 78.6% Fib retracement, which is 12.42. This level will change anytime the VIX hits a new intraday high.
Let me know if there are any questions! #VIXIndicator
Options Expiration 9/9/16
–Expiring —
$SPX Sept 9th 2120/2095 puts, sold for 1.90 on Aug 19th
$SPX Sept 9th 2200/2225 calls, sold for 8.00 on Aug 22nd
Should (finally) be an exciting market next week! I’ll be posting more data on the VIX Indicator and the current correction over the weekend.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign With such an ugly close I see a very high chance that any short put spreads will open Monday at least a dollar further in the hole. So,
Bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.55. Sold for 1.25 on Aug 24th. I will look to roll next week. This leaves me with only 4 put spreads going into next week, as opposed to 8 call spreads.
SPX Calls sold
#SPXcampaign i have been trying to sell the 2220/2245 calls all day, but price kept slipping lower. So I threw in the towel and moved a strike lower.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2215/2240 call spreads for 1.50.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign This one did not quite hit my 3.00 stop, but because the Downside Warning fired, I closed it early.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 30th 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.60. Sold for 1.50 on Aug 30th.
I will wait to roll this on Monday, unless we rally into close today in which case I will reverse-roll into calls.
Downside Warning Fired
#VIXIndicator And there we have it… a full warning to the downside. Two signals hit today.
More downside expected in the coming days and weeks. It is very rare for the day of a warning firing to be the low.
We may hit a Warning…
We may hit a Warning today after all… 16.53 level in sight
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign #reverseroll
Bought to close $SPX Sept 21st 2125/2100 put spreads for 4.20. Sold for 1.90 on Wednesday.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 28th 2190/2215 call spreads for 4.50.
This shifts the risk to the upside at around the all-time high, with no position size increase and a .30 credit.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign – Sold another standard spread and a roll
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.40.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2025/2000 put spreads for 2.10, rolled from Oct 7th spread stopped earlier, 1.5x position size.
Downside signal fired
#VIXIndicator The VIX has hit 14.93, which is 25% above the 2-day VIX closing low (11.94 close from Wednesday). This meets the criteria to fire a downside signal on the Bistro Vix Indicator. A second signal will mean we get a downside warning, which puts us on the defensive for lower SPX prices.
This signal also cancels the Upside Warning that has been in effect since July 8th.
Based on data since the beginning of 2000, there is a 72% chance we will go further down in the markets and hit a Downside Warning.
SPX puts stopped, VIX Indicator
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2075/2050 put spreads for 2.85. Sold for 1.55 on Tuesday.
Will look to roll this later today. Also trying to stop out of a Sept 21st put spread at the moment.
The VIX intraday high so far is only .11 short from firing a VIX Indicator signal. A second signal is required for a Downside Warning, but that level for today would be 16.53, so it’s unlikely we’ll get a warning today.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Sept 15th 2215/2240 calls for .20. Sold for 2.40 on Aug 29th.
Bought to close SPX Sept 23rd 2240/2265 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on Aug 26th.
