#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 2200/2225 call spreads for .20. Sold for 4.50 on Oct 5th.
Author Archives: Jeff
NFLX price not moving but…
NFLX price not moving but options premiums going up.
GS earnings
#Earnings Not a big mover on earnings: Biggest UP move: 3.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.6%, Average move: 1.6%.
Going for neutral iron butterfly: STO $GS Oct 21st 167.5/170/172.5 IB for 2.05. Max risk = .45.
NFLX earnings
#Earnings Over last three years, over five days after earnings, Biggest UP move: 25.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -19.9%, Average move: 12.7%. Seems to be an upside bias to earnings premiums. Looking to sell the 85 put for .53, 14 points OTM, and the 115 call for .75, 16 points OTM. The farther out call is selling for more than the closer put.
These strikes are 14.1% and 16.2% OTM respectively.
STO $NFLX Oct 21st 85/115 strangles for 1.27.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 17th 1960/1935 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2127.
I am still selling put spreads, even with a Downside Warning in effect. Everything has remained fairly orderly in the SPX so I’m not spooked yet. I will take profits early or stop out if anything violent starts happening.
Econ Calendar week of 10/17/16
Options Expiration 10/14/16
Alls I gots expiring is the DUST 55 call. Have a great weekend everyone!
AZO earnings closed
#Earnings BTC $AZO Oct 21st 800 call for .20. Sold for 2.76 on 9/21. Now flat in AZO; all earnings trades closed yesterday and today.
SPX puts sold, puts closed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Nov 11th 1980/1955 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2137.
Earlier: Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 2050/2025 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 22nd.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 2220/2245 call spreads for 2.00, with SPX at 2144.
Looks like gold may have…
Looks like gold may have found its bottom
Is the VIXIndicator punking us?
#VIXIndicator Well, if that was a near-term bottom today, that will be three Downside Warnings in a row that occurred on the day of the market bottom… Brexit in June, last month and this month.
That is not the historical norm, but if it’s becoming a new reality I may need to look at some adjustments. The main purpose of the Downside Warnings is to avoid huge dumps like August 2015. For the bigger corrections, it has always given fair warning before the huge dive. It may just be that it is less useful on these smaller dips.
AZO naked put closed
#Earnings Bought to close $AZO Oct 21st 690 put for .20. Sold for 3.07 on 9/21. Now just waiting for the 800 call to close.
SPX next-day spread closed same day
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2090/2065 put spreads for .40. Sold 2.5 hours ago for 2.10.
Overcoming fear
It’s the toughest thing about trading, and nothing has provided a bigger leap away from fear than my recent experience of managing an ITM call spread. I was short the August 2130/2155 call spread as the SPX reached all time highs of 2193. It was a big trade, too, over twice my normal size, and it sucked as the index went through my strikes (I had already rolled several call spreads, but let this one sit). But as it sat there ITM for days and then weeks, I grew more relaxed and started exploring ways to roll my way out. I figured a system, without increasing position size, and started rolling it one week before it expired. All it would take is a decent pullback or two and I’d be out. It took about 6 rolls and now I’m out with no loss, in fact retaining the profit I expected on the original trade.
Going ITM and realizing max loss seems to be a great fear for many option traders. To help overcome it, I suggest trading an ITM spread on an index. Indices do not have huge overnight gaps like stocks, and there is no possibility of early assignment, as they are cash settled at expiration, never earlier. Your risk never changes, whether you are 100 points OTM or 100 points ITM (except with Portfolio Margin, which is unpredictable).
Today, I sold a 1-lot:
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 2175/2150 put spread for 14.00. I will wait until mid November to even worry about it. It will be similar to having a trade go against you, except we now have the benefit of a very fat credit upon entry, rather than the 1.30 or so for which we usually sell these spreads.
Feel free to join if you are looking to overcome some of your fear. If you do it, understand that if it remains ITM in November, we may be selling condors or extra options during the rolls. But as before, I do not plan to increase risk very much. #SPXcampaign #FearTrade #ITMrolling
Fat fingered stop
#SPXcampaign I was holding the $SPX Oct 19th 2100/2075. My stop was the September lows, so when we broke that this morning, I considered closing it. I entered a stop price of 5.40, but did not want to submit the trade until I saw how the bounce would act. Well, guess what? I mistakenly submitted it.
As many expected, the 2120 area held (so far). But it’s done, so I decided to roll into an iron condor with the same expiration and same number of contracts. No doubt risky, probably more to the upside. But I will roll either side, if either are threatened.
Stopped: Bought to close SPX Oct 19th 2100/2075 put spreads for 5.40. Sold for 2.75 last Thursday.
Rolled to: Sold to Open SPX Oct 19th 2055/2080/2150/2175 iron condors for 5.25. Paid a .15 debit on the roll, but that’s okay since I brought in a heft 2.75 on the initial sale.
SPX next-day puts sold
#SPXcampaign — risky as we are still dropping…
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2090/2065 put spreads for 2.10, with SPX at 2115.
We just broke the September…
We just broke the September lows in SPX
UVXY call
#VXXGame Followed @Ramie, STO UVXY Jan 2018 60 call for 7.10.
AZO condors closed
#Earnings Bought to close $AZO 680/690/800/810 iron condors for .20. Sold for 2.00 on Sept 21st.
I have an additional naked strangle at the same short strikes. I have orders in to close each option at .20; thought those orders would fill before the condor.
Downside Warning fired
Downside Warning fired
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart updated
#VIXIndicator We are set to open with VIX above 16.53, which will fire a Downside Warning. Keep on guard for further volatility in the coming days or weeks.
Econ Calendar week of 10/10/16
Okay, this is much too late to be posting this. I’ve set a weekly reminder so I won’t forget!
SPX call spreads closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spreads for .20. Sold last week for 1.40.
VIX Indicator and SPX Charts have been updated
The VIX came within .06 of firing a second signal today. This does not mean that if it had done that, there would be a much greater chance of a correction… it’s just sticking with the rules and trading by them. No Warning yet means remain cautious but continue the #SPXcampaign as normal… sell both call and put spreads, roll if stops are hit, and close for 80-90% of max profit.
SPX condor roll sold
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 1900/1925/2225/2250 iron condors for 2.00. This is a roll from earlier stopped spread, at 1.5x position size.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign This one hit the 3.00 stop level: Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.80. Sold last Friday for 1.85. Will look to roll today or tomorrow.
FB covered puts
#ShortStock #CoveredPuts #Earnings #Rolling some $FB positions…
BTC FB Oct 14th 125 put for .07. Sold for 1.10 on Sept 16th.
BTC FB Dec 90 put for .11. Sold for 2.68 on June 15th.
STO FB Oct 28th 127 put for 1.11
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 2230/2255 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 27th.
DUST call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DUST Oct 14th 55 call for 1.25. Expires this Friday.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2156.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign In Pre-Market, bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2185/2210 call spreads for .80. Sold for 7.60 on Sept 28th. I’m nearing the end of my ITM rolling, recouping all losses from a few spreads that went completely ITM over the summer.
Boring day…
…but interesting that VIX has been flat all day despite the indices all up significantly. I still don’t feel that new highs are in the cards without first having a deeper dip than we got in September.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 2240/2265 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2169.
Options Expiration 10/7/16
–Expiring–
$FB 125 covered put
$NUGT 23 and 30 calls
$SPX 2190/2215 call spreads, sold last Friday for 3.50
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 19th 2210/2235 call spreads for .20. Sold last Friday for 2.10.
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2215/2240 call spreads for 1.65. Tried selling the 2220 short spread this morning for 2.00 on the pop up, but missed the fill and watched my dreams dissolve away.
Next week I’ll be selling Nov 11th spreads, starting with calls first thing Monday.
DUST closed and sold calls
#ContangoETFs
BTC $DUST Oct 7th 50 call for .50. Sold for 1.475 (avg price) on Tuesday.
STO $DUST Oct 21st 60 call for 2.00.
Still have another 50 call that’s expiring today. Will look to close or roll as day progresses.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 2235/2260 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Sept 28th.
SPX puts sold, calls closed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2050/2025 put spreads for 1.85
Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Sept 19th.
Jobs Results
156,000 non-farm added in September.
Unemployment rate up to 5.0%, as numbers added to both employed and unemployed (job participation went up slightly).
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
Have a great jobs Friday everyone!
UVXY call closed
#VXXGame Bought to close $UVXY Dec 55 call for .86. Sold for 4.40 on Sept 13th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2100/2075 put spreads for 2.75. This is an extra spread to offset my call spread with the same expiry. I will stop and roll if we break the Sept 12th low of 2119.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Sept 19th.
Karen SuperTrader saga
Here’s a link to the SEC’s response to request for dismissal. Interesting to read at least the intro in the continuing saga of a revered trader who was allegedly perpetrating fraud.
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/56010098/mtd-opposition-10032016
Open Action
TWTR sinking on rumors; Gold, NUGT sinking further, Bonds sinking further.
What will the jobs data do to this market tomorrow?
VIX indicator and the SPX…
VIX indicator and the SPX chart have been updated
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold an extra call spread above all time highs:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2200/2225 calls for 4.50, with SPX at 2163.
The importance of Monday morning premium
#SPXcampaign On Monday in the first hour of trading, the market was down less than half a percent. I sold the Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spread for 1.40 on an uptick to 2162. 33 days until expiration.
In the first hour today, 31 days to expiration, our intraday high was just below 2162. The same spread topped out at about 80 cents.
I have seen this constantly with call spreads… Monday morning premium is highly elevated, and drops quickly by Monday afternoon. Provided there are no large moves in SPX, theta makes quick work of the premium. This is less dramatic with put spreads, and I have not tested it as much with different expirations (just the 30-35 DTE range).
This is why that I sold that call spread even though the market was down.
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart…
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
DUST added
#ContangoETFs Added another DUST Oct 7th 50 call, sold for 1.85 right before bell, at the high of the day.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2010/1985 put spreads for 1.45, earlier when SPX dipped to 2153.
DUST takes the reigns from NUGT
#ContangoETFs looks like these two might be changing hands as to which has the better action.
STO DUST Oct 7th 50 call for 1.10
#TopoftheChain :
STO DUST Nov 18th 60 call for 3.50
STO Dust Dec 16th 60 call for 5.40
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2220/2245 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Sept 14th.
My order to sell a put spread was surprisingly not filled on that drop.
More SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 1975/1950 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 20th.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2025/2000 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.10 on Sept 9th.
Econ Calendar week of 10/3/16
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 12th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Mondays are a great day to sell the 5-week-out call spreads, even if the market is down a bit. Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2162.
Options Expiration 9/30/15
–Expiring —
$SPX 2185/2205 call spreads
$SPX 2210/2235 call spreads
$NUGT 16 puts
–Full Loss–
$NKE 53/55/57 iron butterfly
More calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2190/2215 call spreads for 3.50. Expire next Friday (or will be rolled if rally continues).
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2210/2235 call spreads for 2.10. Doing the #ReverseRoll of put spreads stopped yesterday. Unless and until yesterday’s VIX Indicator signal is canceled I am fading the rallies.
SPX put roll closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2100/2075 put spreads for 3.35. Sold for 2.10 last Thursday. This one hit my 4.00 stop on Monday and again today, and you don’t have to tell me twice… okay, maybe you do, but you don’t have to tell me three times to get out when stops are hit.
SPX condor corrupted
#SPXcampaign Bought to close Sept 30th 2050/2030 put spreads for 4.30. Sold a couple hours ago with a call spread for 1.50. Quick loss, but that’s the risk of these short-term trades. Will look to roll.
Downside Signal Fired
#Market #VIXIndicator Things suddenly look dark… DB and all banks continue dropping. After last Thursday’s Downside Warning cancelation, we have a new signal this Thursday. It takes two signals for a Warning. Next level today is 16.53.
I’m looking to exit the put side of the condor I entered earlier… immediate loss on that one!
Market
Deutsche Bank (DB) is down over 6%, putting pressure on all banks (XLF) and the market. Bonds (TLT) and VIX (UVXY) soaring.
AVGO covered call
#Earnings #LongStock #CoveredCalls
STO $AVGO Oct 28th 177.5 call for 2.00.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2158.
And a minute later it’s at 2153. Whoa.
SPX next day condor
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2130/2150/2185/2205 iron condors for 1.50. Expire tomorrow. Thanks @rknight52 for the inspiration.
FB covered put
#Earnings #CoveredPuts #ShortStock
And my short stock position continues. Someday my cost basis will equal the stock price…. some day.
STO $FB Oct 21st 126 covered put for 1.25.
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position Chart are updated.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2171.
SPX call rolling
#SPXcampaign This is a partial roll of the ITM roll that’s going into its third month. At least now I am selling OTM spreads, albeit pretty close.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2185/2210 call spreads for 7.60.
I closed a spread last week for 13.75. Sold a 2.00 put spread and now this, so 9.60 total and 4.25 more to go.
Oregon Ducks
For those of you discussing NKE and the Oregon Ducks, my stepson is the second guy from the right.
