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Author Archives: Jeff
Snickers Bar
#ContangoETFs #Rolling
BTC NUGT March 19th 63 call for 11.00. Sold for 1.12 on Monday. Harrumph.
STO NUGT April 15th 72 call for 12.20.
BTC NUGT March 19th 70 call for 5.00. Sold yesterday for 1.00
STO NUGT April 15th 90 call for 6.10
UVXY rolls
#VXXGame $UVXY puts obviously under pressure… continuing to roll into strangles once they go ITM. This is my first roll of several I’ll need…
BTC UVXY April 15th 24 puts for 3.40.
STO UVXY April 29th 20/33.5 strangles for 3.72
I don’t think both of those April 29th strikes will survive, but I will roll the one that gets ATM.
WSM closed
#Earnings BTC $WSM March 19th 55 puts for .30, sold as a 55/50 condor yesterday for .70. Order in to sell the 50 puts for .05, but doubt it will fill unless we get a spike down.
VIX indicator comes through
At least in the short-term, the VIX Indicator’s Upside Warning is working… albeit pretty late from when the rally started. Many prognosticators saying rally should have been over and we are due for a drop. Could be true, but when the VIX passes below 78.6% Fib line, almost always mean more upside ahead, sometimes violently. I don’t trust this rally, but I respect it for now and can see us getting up to the 2070 or 2080 resistance that Robert posted easily. Above 2100 would be a surprise for me, however. Currently moving any call spreads I can to above 2110. #SPXcampaign
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market (3:09a ET), bought to close $SPX April 1st 1850/1825 for .20. Sold for 2.00 on March 3rd.
VIX confirming
A day after the Upside Warning, VIX is confirming upside bias. This is a new post-correction low, and the lowest VIX reading since Christmas Eve.
WSM earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $WSM March 18th 55/50 put spreads for .70.
Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 10.3% , Biggest DOWN move: -12.0% , Average move: 6.0% . This trade is 7.3% OTM.
Geez, were we early on…
Geez, were we early on NUGT calls or what?
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Going above 2100 for any further sales.
Sold to Open $SPX April 14th 2110/2135 call spreads for 1.25
Sold to Open $SPX May 19th 2125/2150 call spreads for 3.50 (as a roll)
SPX put spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX April 8th 1880/1855 put spreads for 1.30.
roll it NOW
#Earnings #Rolling #CoveredCalls
BTC $NOW March 18th 55 call for 6.10. Sold for 1.35 on 2/9
STO NOW April 15th 55 call for 7.90.
SPX put spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX April 1st 1925/1900 put spreads for 1.60, double position as a #ReverseRoll to stopped call spreads.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX April 1st 2040/2065 call spreads for 7.50. Sold for 8.00 on March 4th as a roll. Small profit on this one, but since my stop level of 20-points OTM (2020) was hit last week, needed to close this and wait for higher prices to replace the roll.
Upside Warning fired
#VIXIndicator UPSIDE WARNING fired. We have just hit 3 consecutive VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement. This historically has meant that volatility has subsided in the near term, and we should be seeing further strength to the rally in the SPX.
This also sets a new VIX low of 16.05 from Friday, 3/4.
Tuesday’s levels that would negate this and switch us to a downside warning are 21.05 and 23.58.
This is the first time a VIX upside warning has fired since I developed the indicator, so it will be interesting to see if SPX pushes higher before any big drops. SPX has risen in the days or weeks following this signal over the majority of times it has fired since 2000.
NUGT puts this morning, now calls…
#ContangoETFs STO $NUGT March 18th 63 calls for 1.15
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 24th 2025/2050 call spreads for 7.05. Sold for 1.60 on Feb 24th. Using the pullback to kill another threatened spread. This pretty much clears me of problem call spreads, and I will slowly build back positions to recoup losses.
NUGT opener
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT March 18th 47 put for 1.20
Fat Fingers
#SPXcampaign While trying to set up a GTC order to close for .20, I mistakenly closed the $SPX March 23rd (Wednesday weekly) 2050/2075 call spread for 2.55. Sold for 1.60 last week. Rather than replace immediately, I will wait for next spike in SPX.
More NUGT
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT March 18th 48 put for 1.25
STO March 24th 40 put for .80
STO June 17th 20 put for 1.00
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 17th 2025/2050 call spreads for 6.50. Sold for 1.50 on Feb 16th. This blew through my STOP on Friday, so needed this pullback for a less painful exit. I’m keeping track of the costs of stops and will work in “rolls” in coming weeks to chip away at the losses premium.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 24th 1950/1925 put spreads for 2.05. Fairly aggressive hedge to my call spreads… if this one gets in trouble I will be happy for the relief.
morning NUGT
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT March 18th 48 puts for .65
Options Expiration 3/11/15
#OptionsExpiration What started out okay turned out to be a crappy end.
— Expiring with max profit —
NUGT 40, 48, and 50 puts
NUGT 70 calls
— Expiring with losses —
SPX 2015/2040 call spreads
SPX 2020/2045 call spreads
SPX 1650/1625 LONG put spreads… small position bought awhile ago…. hmmm, not quite.
SPX call spreads hammered
#SPXcampaign Two spreads I had thought would expire hammered me at day’s end. Allowing the 2015 and 2020 calls expire ITM and taking the loss based on settlement. It should be a more favorable price than trying to work the bid/ask spread (especially since IB does not charge for execution).
Will add to my list of rolls for next week.
UVXY roll
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 24th 1825/1800 put spreads for .15. Double position sold for 1.30 on March 1st.
SPX roll calls
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX April 8th 2050/2075 call spreads for 8.10. Yes, I am still fighting the cup trend… this is a roll from previously stopped call spreads. Stop will be 2030. Will try to exit when price of spread drops below 4.00.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 17th 1880/1855 put spreads for .15. Sold last week for 1.01.
FB call
#Earnings STO $FB March 24th 111 call for 1.10. Still trading around my short stock position, waiting for a deeper pullback.
SPX calls
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open March 23rd (Wed expiry) 2050/2075 call spreads for 1.50. First try on a Wednesday weekly… that week’s regular weeklys expire on Thursday due to Good Friday holiday, so this is only one day earlier.
UVXY puts
#VXXGame Sold to Open $UVXY April 8th 22 puts for .60
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 11th 2025/2050 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.50 on Feb 16th. Still short two others for March 11th with shorts at 2015 and 2020; will allow to expire.
a NUGT morning’ to ya
#contangoetfs
STO NUGT March 11th 70 call for .75
STO NUGT March 18th 80 calls for 1.50
STO NUGT April 8th 105 call for 2.00
Another put spread closed
#SPXcampaign, just noticed this one filled about 52 minutes before the open: Bought to close $SPX April 1st 1735/1710 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.35 on March 1st.
Futures dropping from their highs…
Futures dropping from their highs and gold spiking again.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market bounce courtesy of ECB…
Bought to close $SPX March 11 1935/1910 put spreads for .20. Sold on Tuesday for 1.50.
Bought to close $SPX March 17 1850/1825 put spreads for .20. Sold on 2/26 for 2.00.
SPX call spread bonus
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 2015/2040 call spreads for 2.20. Squeezing this one in there, hoping no one notices.
VIX action interesting today. Despite…
VIX action interesting today. Despite the market being up all day, VIX has moved very little, and is actually also up on the day. I remain bearish over short-term.
Market up and gold pops…
Market up and gold pops too.
SPX calls
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX April 8th 2090/2115 call spreads for 1.25.
NUGT drop
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Mar 24th 37 puts for 1.00
BTC NUGT March 18th 15 put for .05. Sold for 1.40 on Oct 16th
BTC NUGT March 11th 37 puts for .05. Sold for 1.125 avg price in Feb
PNRA dumping
#Earnings BTC $PNRA March 18th 220 call for .80. Sold yesterday for 2.55. This one spiked then collapsed two days in a row. Maybe I can do this again before expiration.
NUGT puts
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT March 18th 45 put for 1.40
STO NUGT April 15th 30 put for .85
SPX same week spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 1935/1910 puts spreads for 1.50. Expire this Friday unless I close out on next rally up.
FB covered put
#Earnings STO $FB March 24th 102 put for 1.25, against short stock position.
SPX 2005 seems to be…
SPX 2005 seems to be formidable resistance.
PNRA call
STO $PNRA March 18th 220 call for 2.55. Also short the 210’s, sold this one on today’s spike.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 11th 1900/1875 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.80 last Wednesday.
FB much weaker than market
FB much weaker than market
SPX iron condor
#SPXcampaign Unable to sense a true direction, betting that we don’t get a huge break up or down anytime soon. So selling a condor seems best. Will treat each side separately if threatened.
Sold to Open $SPX March 17th 1855/1880/2060/2085 iron condors for 2.20.
NUGT weeklys
#ContangoETFs STO $NUGT March 11th 80 calls for 1.25
VIX indicator… available every day on right-hand sidebar —>
VIX indicator for Monday 3/7: Friday was the second close under the VIX’s Fib 78.6% retracement. Three of those in a row and the Downside Warning ends; it is currently in effect from these dates: 11/13, 12/3, 12/9, 12/14, 1/4, 1/7, 1/20, 2/8.
Monday’s signal levels, which would indicate further downside warning, are 20.88 and 25.60.
To nullify Downside warnings:
1) SPX above 2116.48 (Nov 3 high), or
2) VIX close below 16.93 for three consecutive days, or
3) New VIX low (below 12.80)
Upside Warning: VIX close below 16.93; one or two days is caution, third consecutive day is an Upside Warning.
UVXY roll
Options Expiration 3/4/16
— Expiring w/max profit —
AVGO 125/115 put spreads
NUGT 70 & 75 calls
NUGT 47 puts
UVXY 50 calls
Have a good weekend all!
NUGT puts
#ContangoETFs Rolled up some puts…
BTC NUGT March 11th 35 puts for .05. Sold for 1.075 in Feb.
STO NUGT March 11th 48 puts for .70
STO NUGT March 18th 40 puts for .65
BOIL closes
#ContangoETFs Funny how these calls only close on UP days with my GTC orders. I imagine it is because they are the only days when any bids are available.
BTC $BOIL June 27 calls for .05. Sold for 1.50 on Dec 28th.
SPX call roll
#SPXcampaign Changed my mind and decided to roll into a new call spread. This one will have a short leash… stop will be at or before 2020.
Sold to Open $SPX April 1st 2040/2065 call spreads for 8.00, with SPX at 2008.
UVXY approaching highs of the…
UVXY approaching highs of the day despite SPX going sideways. Signaling a top?
Closing down TLT
#LongCalls Can’t justify holding $TLT long calls any more… closing down March 130 calls and April 133 calls, about 1.00 average loss on each. Short calls sold yesterday lessen that loss to below .80, and I will close those for pennies one of these days.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 17th 2005/2030 call spreads for 11.00. Sold for 5.50 on Tuesday as a roll. That was a painful one I had to chase after missing this morning’s lows. With VIX going lower, I cannot roll up at this time. I have to save rolls for much higher SPX levels, or if VIX reverses upward.
FB short
#Earnings #ShortStock STO $FB April 1st 100 put for .80. Selling against my short stock position. Earlier this week closed March 4th 110 short calls and 105 covered puts to avoid any possible assignment today.
Is GOLD a tell?
Strength in GLD and NUGT for 2nd straight day could be signaling a market top? Highest point in NUGT since July
Jobs beat expectations, UE rate stays the same
I feel more upside is in order no matter what the number was… yesterday was first day of VIX closing below the Fib 78.6%… this is a signal that downside risk could be ending… three consecutive closes below that line on the VIX (16.93) has historically meant a continued uptrend for weeks or months. But if we can’t hold VIX down there for three days, it could bounce into more volatility.
UVXY put roll
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 24th 1750/1725 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.35 on 2/23.
Diagonalizing
#LongCalls #Diagonals Selling some shorter term calls against my TLT long calls (thanks @prvtrader for the idea).
Against long March 18th 130 calls, STO TLT March 11th 131 calls for .60
Against long April 15th 133 calls, STO TLT March 18th 132 calls for .68
Took only partial position at this point, will sell more or higher strikes if TLT continues rally.
Divergences or convergences?
TLT rallying… so market should be weak…
But transports are strong, even with down-market.
Gold/Silver rallying big.
Searching on Bistro
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AVGO earnings
#Earnings… This is what I wrote on December 2nd on $AVGO’s last earnings:
… this one almost never moves down on earnings. You have to go back to Dec 2010 for its only significant down move, -6.5%.
AVGO moved up 9.5% the next day, so enough said:
Sold to Open AVGO March 4th 125/115 put spreads for 1.00. Last 12 reports, Biggest UP move: 14.7% , Biggest DOWN move: -0.2% , Average move: 6.5% . Short strike is 8.1% OTM.
SPX put spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX April 1st 1850/1825 put spreads for 2.00. Slightly more aggressive than usual since I’m treating as a partial roll from stopped call spreads.
SPX call roll
#SPXcampaign 14 minutes after the bell, sold to open $SPX March 11th 2025/2050 call spreads for 2.25.
SPX same-day spread
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 4th 1935/1910 put spreads for .40. Sold this morning for 1.60.
New low on VIX, touching…
New low on VIX, touching below 16.93 level intraday. Getting closer to an Upside Warning, but this could be the place where it bounces, too.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 11th 1840/1815 put spreads for .30. Sold for 1.70 on Monday.
Options Bistro 