#Earnings BTC $GME Nov 27th 45 calls for .01. Sold for .40 on Friday. The 34 puts may recover today; order in to close for .05.
Author Archives: Jeff
Good morning, 11/23/15
Probably a pretty quiet holiday week, which is great for theta decay and one and a half fewer days before weekly expiration this Friday, when markets close early after a full day off. I will be sell Dec 24th credit spreads in the #SPXcampaign. The $GME #Earnings trade looks to be in $2 worth of trouble to start the week… I’ve actually been here before with GME… it usually is a quick trade but one time I took the stock and waited a few weeks with covered calls before turning a good profit. It may take its time to recover but it always has. Have a great week, everyone!
Expirations!
#OptionsExpiration 11/20/15
These expired with max profit:
$BOIL 40 calls
$FL 55 puts
$KOLD 100, 105, 110 puts
$NXPI 75 put
$NXPI 85 covered calls
$UVXY 25 puts
$VLO 67 covered puts
$WSM 57.5/75 strangles
$ZOES 22.5 and 25 puts
$ZSL 63 call
Assignment:
$KOLD 109, 135, 136 calls, stock called away
And this #Earnings one didn’t work…
Long $WMT 55 puts, expiring worthless. Bought for .34 on Monday.
Have a great weekend, all!
Cover up it’s KOLD
#ContangoETFs #ShortCalls Bought $KOLD stock at 144.91 to cover my short calls at 109, 135, and 136. Will look to handle the rolls next week… want to keep margin exposure down over weekend. Thanks @optioniceman for the idea!
Also, BTC $ZSL Nov 20th 60 calls for 2.75. These were sold for effective price of 1.22. Also will look to replace with rolls next week.
CMG dump
What happened to $CMG? Dumped 50 points in last couple hours, down 10% on day.
GME earnings strangle
#Earnings STO $GME Nov 27th 34/45 strangles for .80 (sides sold separately for .40 each). Over last twelve earnings reports, Biggest FIVE DAY up move: 12.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -14.7% , Average move: 8.2% . So these are the moves you can expect for the 5 days between Monday morning announcement to Friday’s expiration. The trade’s strikes are 12.8% OTM (puts) and 15.4% OTM (calls).
SPLK trade closed
#Earnings BTC $SPLK iron fly Nov 20th 62.50 puts for 1.25… sorry I couldn’t post earlier, but I closed these as stock started dropping. Too bad to have missed early morning exit, but still escaped with decent profit. If you are still holding, either get out when you can or see if there’s an end of day rally. Breakeven on trade will be a few cents under 60.00.
SPLK closed calls
#Earnings #IronButterfly BTC $SPLK 62.5 calls for .30. Now will wait for next bounce to exit short puts cheaply.
SPLK iron fly
#Earnings $SPLK behaving beautifully for the iron fly, heading toward our center strike. Best move would have been to close the short put at the highs, but missed that. Now watching for chance to close both shorts when we can.
NXPI puts
I’m still long this stock from an #Earnings play but selling #CoveredCalls and #ShortPuts against it, bringing cost basis down.
STO $NXPI Dec 4th 75 puts for .80
SPX spread close
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 30th 1940/1915 put spreads for .15. Sold as part of a 2.00 iron condor roll on Nov 9th.
Good morning, Expiration Friday 11/20…
Bulls are in charge… $VIX should drop below 16.05 today, which was the level from which our last signal fired (11/11 close, from which we spiked 25% last Friday). This is an indication that the 11/13 warning is more likely a false alarm. Given this, I think we can lower the threat level. Next levels to watch on $SPX would be the most recent peak around 2015, then all-time highs at 2034. A break through either could mean the bulls drive us into year-end. Meantime, #Earnings plays in $FL, $ZOES, and $WSM look solid, and $SPLK iron fly will probably maintain at least a small profit.
SPLK earnings trade
#Earnings STO $SPLK 57.5/62.5/67.5 iron butterflys for 3.65. Risking 1.35 to make a max of 3.50 or so. See my earlier post for further explanation.
KOLD roll
#ContangoETFs On Friday I closed some ITM $KOLD calls to reduce margin in case of another manic Monday. I replaced those with these today:
STO KOLD Dec 18th 120 call for 17.00
STO KOLD Dec 18th 125 call for 14.60
STO KOLD Dec 18th 100 puts for 3.00
STO KOLD Feb 135 call for 18.10
STO KOLD Feb 70 puts for 2.10
WSM earnings strangle
#Earnings STO $WSM Nov 20th 57.5/75 strangles for 1.05. Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 10.3% , Biggest DOWN move: -12.0% , Average move: 6.0% . These strikes are 12.9% and 13.6% OTM respectively.
SPLK iron butterfly
#Earnings Looking at $SPLK, I see the moves on earnings have been under 5% for the last four reports. Before that, it is higher, so I don’t want to sell naked on it. Instead, I’ll take a low risk bet that it will make another small move. An ATM iron butterfly, 5 points wide, is risking 1.5 to make 3.5. I will wait until end of day to put on the trade, in case I need to move to a different strike, but for now the plan is : Sell 1-62.5 put, buy 1-57.5 put / Sell 1-62.5 call, buy 1-67.5 call. Here are the last 12 reports, 1-day moves:
Aug. 27, 2015 AC -2.27%
May 28, 2015 AC -4.85%
Feb. 26, 2015 AC -3.33%
Nov. 20, 2014 AC 3.06%
Aug. 28, 2014 AC 19.07%
May 29, 2014 AC -16.34%
Feb. 27, 2014 AC -2.87%
Nov. 21, 2013 AC 22.80%
Aug. 29, 2013 AC 12.85%
May 30, 2013 AC 3.40%
Feb. 28, 2013 AC 7.86%
Nov. 29, 2012 AC 0.73%
SQUARE
#LongStock #IPO Bought shares of $SQ for 11.85. Never traded on an IPO day, but just seeing of this will take a bull run. Out by end of day.
FL earnings trade
#Earnings STO $FL Nov 20th 55 puts for .60. Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 8.8% , Biggest DOWN move: -7.1% , Average move: 4.2% . This trade is 10.0% OTM.
BBY earnings trade
#Earnings BTC $BBY Nov 20th 27 puts for .06. Sold yesterday for .32 avg price.
SPX put spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 17th 1925/1900 put spreads for 1.30. Thursday is a bit late to sell the first put spread, but that’s what you get with a rip-roaring bullish week.
Good morning….
Futures were up, but now negative, so perhaps we’ve reached a consolidation area… but be leery of strong moves in either direction as action has been bullish, but a downside warning is still in effect from Friday. (In my backtesting, the correction low of $SPX can be anywhere between 1 day and 1 month after the first warning). I will look to sell Dec 17th put spreads near the open. Meanwhile, we can search for earnings trades in $ADSK, $FL, $GPS, $INTU, $ROST, $SPLK, $WDAY, $WSM. Trade smart!
SPX puts close
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 20th 2010/1985 put spreads for .10. This was trading over 7.00 last Friday. Sold for 2.15 on Nov 9th.
Would normally allow these to expire, but with monthly expiration and Friday morning settlement, I won’t leave the risk out there.
NUGT roll
#ContangoETFs #ReverseRoll Continuing to back out my small but ill-advised put positions.
BTC $NUGT Dec 18th 22 put for 2.50. Sold for 1.00 on Oct 16th
STO $NUGT Jan 15th 34 call for 2.70.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign Selling another call spread as part of the rolls I need from last week’s stops. This is pretty far above all-time highs.
STO $SPX Dec 24th 2180/2205 call spreads for 1.30.
SPX closing spread at 80%
#SPXcampaign
BTC $SPX Nov 27th 1915/1890 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Oct 26th.
ContangoETFs
I’m prepping a webinar for #ContangoETFs and just built this chart. Thought I’d share it with you since it’s an example of the kind of predictable behavior you can see in ETFs like $DUST, $NUGT, $UVXY, $ZSL, $TZA, $BOIL, $KOLD. Kind of like finding money on the sidewalk…
ZOES earnings trade
#Earnings This one is a bit riskier since it is fairly new with only 6 previous earnings reports. Still, the options are pretty far OTM and lower than the stock has been since its IPO month; stock is cheap if assigned.
PLUS, earnings are after tomorrow’s close, so only entering partial today. Will update tomorrow.
STO $ZOES Nov 20th 25 puts for .50, and 22.5 puts for .25.
Biggest UP move: 7.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -4.6% , Average move: 4.6% . These strikes are 20.5% and 28.4% OTM respectively.
BBY Earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $BBY Nov 20th 27 puts for .30 and .32. Scaling in to full position as stock drops off its highs. Next order is in for .34. Not enough premium in calls to make a strangle.
Over last 12 earnings reports: Biggest UP move: 13.2% , Biggest DOWN move: -13.0% , Average move: 6.9% . This trade is 13.3% OTM.
ZSL calls
#ContangoETFs STO $ZSL Nov 20th 63 call for 1.15
STO ZSL Dec 18th 67.5 call for 2.35
Need to keep an eye if its behavior will be any different after the split. If there’s no change, this one will always top out and fail in the 60-65 area.
NXPI covered calls
#Earnings #CoveredCalls STO $NXPI Nov 27th 83 call for .50 and 84 call for .45. (assigned stock at 86.00)
Good morning…
Up and down yesterday, up today? Check out the great chart Robert posted (prvtrader) last night… we are at resistance on a downtrend line from beginning of November… pressed against it yesterday then failed; we will press it again this morning. I’m picking and choosing $SPX spreads wisely, playing the whipsaw action. I remain watchful for more downside since we are under a Warning from Friday.
KOLD puts
#ContangoETFs Hard to believe I still get someone to buy these, expiring in 3 days…
STO $KOLD Nov 20th 110 puts for 1.25.
SPX put roll
#SPXcampaign #Rolling STO $SPX Nov 27th 1965/1940 put spreads for 1.30, as a partial roll of spreads stopped out last week.
DUST in the wind
#ContangoETFs STO $DUST Jan 45 calls for 1.15. Will add more if premium rises.
SPX call spread #2
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 17th 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.25. Second call spread for the week, 20 points higher than yesterday. I won’t worry about defending these unless we break through all-time high at 2134.
Good morning…
Another day rocketing higher? Looks that way. I have been backtesting the $VIX warning signals, and I have not found a downside warning that triggers without a subsequent correction in the $SPX (I have tested 1999 thru 2011 thus far). Sometimes, the correction may come weeks later, or sometimes it may be only a decent pullback rather than “correction.” But nonetheless, I am staying on watch for more downside in the days and weeks to come after Friday’s Warning.
Signs that we should reset the clock would be either a new $VIX low (below 12.80) or a new $SPX high (2134). Also, a firm break of the recent SPX high (2116) or a close below the most recent base for the VIX warning (Wednesday’s close of 16.05) I believe would mean relative safety. This is a new indicator and our first time working with it in real-time. So every day is an education.
Monthly expiration is this Friday, and it could be playing a role in this rally. Seeing what happens next week will be interesting.
SPX pre-market call spread
#SPXcampaign In pre-market (4:34am ET) STO $SPX Dec 4th 2130/2155 call spreads for 1.20. This is actually my second regular call spread for this expiry, given that I only sold half my normal amount a couple weeks ago. Staying at or above all-time highs, and above the most recent swing high.
WMT bearish trade
#Earnings – this is NOT my normal earnings trade, but with market volatility I do not feel like shorting options on earnings, especially because there isn’t a lot of premium in many of these companies reporting. But much of retail is very bearish, dropping further on earnings. So I bought 3 $WMT Nov 20th puts for .34, a $100 bet that this could crater down toward 50 when it reports tomorrow morning.
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SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign STO Dec 17th $SPX 2145/2170 call spreads for 1.25
Good morning..
Quite a Friday the 13th we had…. we got our $VIX warning signal, and it looked like it could be a repeat of Aug 20-24… however, a significantly more minor one; $SPX was only down 1.12% for the day. Then the Paris attacks instilled fear, but because they happened Friday, with the weekend to digest, it was anyone’s guess what Monday would look like.
For now, we STILL have an active warning from Friday, so be on the lookout. VIX would need to fall at least back below Wednesday’s close of 16.05 before I would say we can ease off the brakes. SPX vol is high so selling new spreads will get you fairly far OTM; just proceed cautiously. Call spreads should be above all-time high of 2135. I will look to sell my normal 5-week out spreads for Dec 17th before I consider putting rolls on from spreads that were stopped last week.
Options Expiration 11/13/15
Followers who do not have Posting privileges can respond to the Post with their expirations
Expiring with 100% of max profit:
$NXPI 75 puts
$NXPI 85 covered call
$UVXY 25 put
$VLO 67 & 68 covered puts
$SPX 2125/2145 call spreads
$SPX 2150/2175 call spreads
No assignments. Thanks everyone, have a great weekend!
If you’d like Posting privileges, please email me or reply here and I will invite you.
Closed positions
I closed some of my short options positions for profit in $NUGT, $ZSL, $TDG. I closed some options and stock for losses in $KOLD, $NXPI, $VLO (I intend to roll the KOLD positions once the market settles down). Took off the risk to manage margin should we have an ugly Monday.
…and another SPX stop
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 27th 1950/1925 put spreads for 2.75. Sold for 1.70 on Oct 23rd (part of a roll).
$SPX new call spread
#SPXcampaign Don’t normally sell call spreads on a day like this, but I still needed another for Dec 11th, and I’m still able to get one right at all-time highs. If next week is more down, it will be fine. If we rebound, the relief from put spreads will make up for any pain on this one. It is my only call spread below 2160.
Sold to open $SPX Dec 11th 2130/2155 call spreads for 1.25.
$SPX stopping Dec 11th spread
#SPXcampaign Bought to close Dec 11th 1920/1895 put spreads for 3.20. Sold for 1.25 on Wednesday.
With warning signal in effect and continuing downside, I am closing non-SPX positions as well, to keep margin clear for a possible Monday crash. I don’t really expect it, but the end of this week is looking like a minor version of August 20-24.
$VIX steadily rising, $SPX steadily…
$VIX steadily rising, $SPX steadily decreasing for last two hours. We are getting a retest of the 20.05 signal level. Take caution as risk remains high for Monday and next week. Need a very strong end-of-day rally to say otherwise.
SPX Stop-out
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 1940/1915 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.25 on Nov 5th. Closing down a few put spreads today to avoid weekend risk after $VIX Warning has fired.
TICK low of the day.
Something is still roiling us intraday… epic battle.
$NUGT and $KOLD ETFs
#ContangoETFs Managing some ITM positions in these…
BTC KOLD Nov 20th 100 call for 22.50. Sold for 4.00 on Aug 17th
STO KOLD Nov 20th 110 puts (x2) for 2.55. Will also add a Dec call for 17.50 or more on next KOLD up day.
BTC NUGT Nov 20th 30 put for 5.50. Sold for 2.50 on Oct. 12th.
STO NUGT June 45 call for 5.60
$SPX new LOD, but…
…TICKs fired huge after bottoming… $RUT near positive on day. That may have been bears’ last breath?
$SPX new LOD
$SPX new LOD
Danger Zone colors…
I’ve changed the background color and included the note in the header… “VIX danger zone entered 11/13.” Since #SPXcampaign is a key strategy followed by multiple members, I’ll alter the site appearance based on different conditions to be aware of.
Second $VIX signal hit – DANGER ZONE
#SPXcampaign…. well, that sounds dramatic. But we hit 20.06, which is 25% above Wednesday’s close of 16.05. That’s the second signal which means we have entered a Danger Zone. Increasing volatility into a Friday is scary, as Monday could be a follow through. Friday the 13th, no less.
Even though we have been ticking up since the lows (and the $RUT is moving up strongly), we should be cautious for more possible downside. This could be a false warning, but those are rare in the backtesting I have done. I recommend you close put spreads if they are anywhere near your stops. If placing any new put spreads today, please make sure they are as far OTM as possible. We are now on warning until $VIX falls back below Wednesday’s close of 16.05.
$VIX warnings for Monday are 25.60 (100% from 10/28 low) and 22.96 (25% up from Thursday’s close).
$SPX Not an ideal stop…
$SPX Not an ideal stop on the 2025/2000… got caught in the downdraft, and ended up paying 5.00 to get out. These same day expirations have caught me before. Very dangerous and you have to be aggressive to get out before your stop is hit.
We are pennies away from second $VIX signal at 20.05. If we do not rally back toward flat-on-day, I recommend being careful with any spreads you leave on over the weekend.
SPX, stopped out of today’s…
SPX, stopped out of today’s 2025/2000, closed short, will look to sell longs with next push down.
First $VIX signal hit
We are up 50% from the recent 12.80 low from 10/28. So we are now on notice for a second signal. With one signal fired, we should now proceed more cautiously on put spreads.
$ZSL forward split…
#ContangoETFs Now trading at 61.84, which would be 123.68 in yesterday’s dollars. All options positions have doubled in size.
SPX spread rolled
#SPXcampaign Rolling the Dec 11th spread I STOPPED out last night:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 17th 1890/1865 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size.
$SPX will gap down, but…
$SPX will gap down, but not to much… a bigger gap might be a signal of capitulation, leading to a rip higher. A small gap is less telling, so we’ll have to watch. If you have $SPX spreads hitting stops, be patient in getting your exit, or even wait to see what the morning’s direction will be.
Futures are saying we will open at 18.75, so shy of our next two signal points: 19.20 and 20.05. Watch that area, and watch @prvtrader‘s Fib levels on SPX.
SPX took one stop early
Since I had a few spreads threatening if we gap down tomorrow, I closed one before the $3.00 stop was hit.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 11th 1940/1915 put spreads for 2.70. Sold for 1.25 on Monday.
SPX call spread, UVXY call closings
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 2170/2195 call spreads for .20. Sold Nov 2nd for 1.25.
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Dec 18th 80 call for 1.25. Sold for 9.20 avg price in August. Not worth risk when over 80% profit available.
$SPX new lows of the…
$SPX new lows of the day
NXPI and VLO management
#Earnings… got some movement today in stocks I was assigned through earnings plays.
$VLO, was assigned short shares at 65.00. Been selling puts and calls, raising my cost basis. Today closed some Nov 13th 71 calls for .08, and sold a Nov 27th 65 covered put for .55
$NXPI was assigned long shares at 86.00. Yesterday sold Nov 20th 85 covered call for .95, and today a Nov 20th 75 put for .60. Lowering my cost basis by selling premium.
SPX 1-day spread
#SPXcampaign Selling $SPX Nov 13th 2025/2000 put spreads. These expire tomorrow, assuming we won’t go too much lower, so risky… stop at 3.00. I have sold a couple for 1.10, looking for 1.20 for more.
Closing trades for margin clearance
#ContangoETFs Bought to close $ZSL Nov 20th 150 call for .25. Sold for 6.10 on August 25th
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 13th 1970 puts for .15. Sold as part of 1970/1945 put spreads for 1.35 on Oct 23rd.
TZA calls
#ContangoETFs Sold to open $TZA Dec 18th 50 calls for 1.55.Even on the extreme volatility spike of 8/24 this only topped out at 56.
SPX another call spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 27th 2160/2185 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.25 on Oct 28th.
SPX call spread close
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 27th 2165/2190 call spreads for .15. Sold as part of an iron condor roll on Oct 23rd.
Good morning
Futures are plummeting… our current $VIX warning signals are 19.11 and 19.20…. so if we get that high both signals would be hit on the same day, meaning we’d enter a Danger Zone. If that happens, look to take profits/stops early on $SPX put spreads and be cautious when selling new ones.
$TDG earnings look to be a beat, so that should open higher and the 200 puts can be closed early.
Welcome to any new members! Please be sure to Reply to Posts with trades, questions, or comments.
SPX call spread close
#SPXcampaign one minute after the close: Bought to close $SPX Nov 13th 2110/2135 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.20 on Oct 22nd. Was planning to let this expire Friday, but I hadn’t taken off my GTC order yet. It filled right after the bell, so now I can forget about it.
SPX Dec 11th put spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 1920/1895 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2075. This is the second and final put spread I’m selling for Dec 11th expiry. I also sold a call spread yesterday, so I need one more call spread to complete the Dec 11th campaign.
KOLD call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $KOLD Nov 20th 136 call for 5.60.
I’m underwater on a handful of short calls in this one, so pressing it a bit here, but this strike is at its recent high, and this is juicy premium for only 8 days until expiration. Also selling puts against the calls, waiting for the eventual fall.
TDG earnings play
#Earnings Sold to Open $TDG Nov 20th 200 puts for 1.40. Never traded this before, but it is not much of a mover on earnings. Over last 12 quarters:
Biggest UP move: 4.2% Biggest DOWN move: -4.4% Average move: 2.3%
These expire NEXT week, and are 9.5% out-of-the-money. IV should drop by at least 10% tomorrow.
If selling naked options, be sure to use an appropriate position size for your account.
Closed TZA calls
#ContangoETFs Bought to close $TZA Nov 20th 50 calls for .12. Sold for 1.50 on Oct 21st.
Options Bistro 