SPXpire

#SPX1dte Both condors expiring worthless. I chose not to close either since market made no threatening moves. I’m also not selling for Monday now, since IV on Monday options is always super low on Friday afternoons, only 9.35% at 15 minutes before close.

Over last couple weeks, some of the more traditional width of 6-delta condors returned, with ability to get 100 or more points even if selling same-day. Hope that remains.

Economic Calendar for 8/14-8/18

Screen Shot 2023-08-11 at 6.30.44 AM
Screen Shot 2023-08-11 at 6.30.57 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 11th 4380/4400-4510/4530 condors for 0.974, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 25.9%

This is inside the condor I sold yesterday for 1.20 (in the post below). I am planning on making this a “roll”, so I will close the other one… order in now to close for .25.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4365/4385-4525/4545 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4463, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 19.1%

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 10th 4430/4410 put spreads for .30, condors sold this morning for 1.15

My stop was NOT hit, but this stair-stepping down has me nervous I’ll face a bigger loss before the close.

CPI report & Jobless claims

July inflation was +0.2%, as expected. +3.2% year over year, versus 3.3 expected.
Weekly jobless claims higher than expected: 248K versus 230K estimated

SPX same day

#SPX1dte About three minutes after CPI report release: Sold to Open $SPX Aug 10th 4410/4430-4555/4575 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 28.2%.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 9th 4460/4440 put spreads for 2.60. Condors sold this morning for .90. That wiped away most profit for the week, I am now at +0.44.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 4440/4460-4545/4565 condors for .90, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 19%

SPX removing risk

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 8th 4435/4415 put spreads for .30. This is from condors sold yesterday. Stop has not been hit, but removing the double downside risk, leaving today’s 4440/4420 spreads in place.

Missed the Upside Warning cancelation

#VIXindicator In updating my charts today, I see that I missed the cancelation of the Upside Warning last Thursday, August 3rd, when the $VIX spiked over 25% than the 2-day closing low. I have updated the information on the sidebar to the right.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 4420/4440-4535/4555 condors for .95, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 22%

I still have 4415/4435 put spreads, so double risk on downside. Call spreads were more threatened at the close so I closed them, but then market dropped overnight, and IV is higher.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Aug 7th 4420/4440-4530/4550 condors, sold this morning for 1.00

Bought to close $SPX Aug 8th 4555/4575 call spreads for .35. Condors sold this morning for 1.05. Delta of the calls was .05, puts .02. So taking off most threatened side and leaving puts for expiration tomorrow.

Economic Calendar of 8/7 – 8/11

Screen Shot 2023-08-07 at 11.37.34 AM
Screen Shot 2023-08-07 at 11.37.50 AM

SPX next day

$SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 4415/4435-4555/4575 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 15%, SPX at 4505.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 4420/4440-4530/4550 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 21.3%

July Jobs Report

#Jobs — Lower than expected, but steady growth continues.

Gain of +187,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 200K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.5%, vs expected no change
U6 unemployment 6.7%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.6% for 5th straight month
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.4% increase over the year, stronger than expected

May jobs revised down by -25K to +281K
June jobs revised down by -24K to +185K

Risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 4445/4425 put spreads for .10. Condors sold this morning for 1.10

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 4425/4445-4545/4565 condors for 1.10, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 23.35%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 4505/4485 put spreads for 1.60. Condors sold this morning for 1.00.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 4485/4505-4600/4620 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 22.1%

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 4510/4530-4610/4630 condors for .95, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 19.1%

#riskreversal

Put Risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 1st 4535/4515 put spreads for .45. Condors sold earlier for 1.30.

Put deltas got up to -.09 a few minutes ago, but dropped to -.06 when I was filled. Call strike is +.04 so I will let that sit overnight. I will look to reload put side in the morning.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 4515/4535-4625/4645 condors for 1.30, deltas -.07 +.07

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 31st 4530/4550-4620/4640 condors for .876, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 17.65%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 28 4600/4620 call spreads for 1.60. Condors sold this morning for 1.00.

Horrible week due to my major error yesterday. I had ruminated in the past that when I hit midweek with profit target already met, I need to be overly careful on Thursday and Friday. I forgot that, and when I should have closed put spread to remove risk, I instead sold a next-day condor. That error sucked 10.00 out of my accounts when market took a mid-day dive.

If today turns out to be a super rally I will take profits on the long Aug 2nd calls I entered this morning.

SPX 3-dte R/R

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal I can’t see a strong reason for yesterday’s dip, and with $VIX resuming its downward trend this morning, it’s possible the Upside Warning is still strong.

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 4465/4445 put spreads
Bought to Open Aug 2nd 4650/4670 call spreads
Total DEBIT -.25

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 28th 4495/4515-4600/4620 condors for 1.00. Deltas -.08 +.06, IV 19.3%

This should have been 1.05 or 1.10, I made an entry error and got filled for 1.00.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 27th 4560/4540 put spreads for 4.00. Major suckage. I was so happy to be up +4.00 on a Wednesday, and it all goes up in smoke on a day I was trying to be careful.

Economic Calendar week of 7/31 – 8/4

Jobs report for June released FRIDAY morning

Screen Shot 2023-07-27 at 10.01.43 AM
Screen Shot 2023-07-27 at 10.01.52 AM

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 28th 4520/4540-4640/4660 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4595, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 12.9%

My bullish call fizzled out quickly so now focused on tomorrow.

SPX risk reversal

#SPX1dte As yesterday’s trades expired worthless I am at +4.00 for the week, exceeding my $3 target. I did not want to risk that by selling a condor the evening after the Fed decision, which often triggers an overnight move. Sure enough, the market rose overnight and has now shown more strength after economic news.

Although we may be too toppy to continue higher today, I am still entering a bullish trade. I had to go with a pretty wide delta disparity to avoid paying a high debit.

Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 4560/4540 put spreads, delta -.15
Bought to Open July 27th 4635/4655 call spreads, delta +.05
Total DEBIT -.45, IV 17.8%

I don’t expect to reach the short call strike but getting close would allow for 2.00 to 4.00 in profit.

Economic news

Jobless claims at 221,000 vs estimate of 235,000.
Q2 U.S. GDP +2.4% vs estimate of 2.0%

Market already higher overnight is now spiking more.

SPX put spread

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 4520/4500 put spreads for 1.25. At time of fill: SPX at 4557, delta -.12

Fed Risk/Reversal

#SPX1dte Betting that we rise into the announcement and spike higher from there.

Sold to open $SPX July 26th 4510/4490, delta -.07
Bought to Open July 26th 4615/4635 call spreads, delta +.05

Total credit on trade: +.25

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 25th 4590 calls for .30. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Also put spread sold this morning for .60, so profit on day 1.35

SPX same day add-on

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 4540/4520 put spreads for .60. This is in addition to my condor sold yesterday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4552, IV 11.4%, deltas -.07 +.07

Expiring: July 24th 4490/4510-4575/4595 condors. sold this morning for 1.15

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 24th 4490/4510-4575/4595 condors for 1.15, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 17%

This is pretty tight range, so be cautious if you follow.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 21st 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors, sold this morning for 1.00.

Profit for week: +2.44

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 21st 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for 1.00, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 18.8%.

I still have the 4595/4615 call spreads from yesterday’s sale, so double risk on upside. Futures started an upside spike about 40 minutes ago, so if that has momentum I will need to watch the calls closely.

Economic Calendar 7/24 – 7/28

Screen Shot 2023-07-20 at 9.04.22 PM
Screen Shot 2023-07-20 at 9.04.42 PM

Risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 21st 4485/4465 put spreads for .50. Condors sold this morning for 1.05. Will leave calls to expire or maybe close cheaply.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 4525/4505 put spreads for .30. Condors sold this morning for 1.15. Stop was hit at the day’s low, then we bounced right away, so I was able to wait for a cheap price to close.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 20th 4465/4485-4600/4620 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 14.5%, SPX 4544

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 20th 4505/4525-4595/4615 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.07, IV 17.9%

Stopped out

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jul 19th 4560/4540 put spreads for 1.30. This leaves me flat for the week. I waited for third day to partake in the rally… surprise surprise, it didn’t work!

SPX uncle

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 19th 4560/4540 put spreads for 2.80, SPX at 4572, delta -.27

Selling a put spread only 12 points from ATM is not usually my style, but such is this bullish market. I may get a long call spread going as well.

SPX quandary

#SPX1dte I don’t see a strong reason for the rally to stop… we hit new 15-month highs yesterday and next resistance would be the $SPX April 2022 high of 4637. So I’m trying to enter an aggressive same-day #RiskReversal but want the futures to dip down to 4586 (symbol: /ES). Since it ain’t happening, I will likely wait for the open and look for SPX to take a small spike down and try the fill then.

Trade is
Selling 4530/4510 put spreads
Buying 4590/4610 call spreads
Net credit will be 50 to 60 cents. That put spread is pretty close to money so it is aggressive.

Another stop

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 19th 4580/4600 call spreads for 1.85. Condors sold earlier for 1.15.

This is a week to be long and nothing else. I’m now slightly negative on week. Both mornings I missed entries to get long. Just gotta pull the trigger and not wait for a greedier fill.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jul 18th 4555/4575 call spreads for 1.70.

Two days in a row. This time I sold lopsided deltas 0f -.10 and +.05 and the call side STILL stopped me out. I also tried to get into a long call spread this morning but missed the fill before we rocketed higher.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 19th 4470/4490-4580/4600 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 12.4%, SPX 4534

SPX same day

#SPX1dte In pre-market a couple minutes after Retail sales number released…

Sold to Open $SPX Jul 18th 4470/4490-4555/4575 condors for 1.05, deltas -.10 +.05.

Definitely a bullish lean on the trade. Also my 4470 long put strike was my SHORT strike on the trade I placed yesterday which was still live. So this trade effectively closed that leg and my long strike is the 4450 from yesterday’s trade, meaning the put side has a 40-pt wing.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jul 17th 4530/4550 call spreads for .60. Condors sold this morning for 1.15

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 18th 4450/4470-4560/4580 condors for 1.10, SPX at 4511, IV 12.5%, deltas -.09 +.05

These 10-hour+ trades are fairly new for me, so still exploring. Since premium is low and/or condors are narrow at end-of-day or pre-open trades, these provide more of both. They can lose a lot of premium by end of day, or if they get pressured I can close the threatened side at day’s end, usually for a profit.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 17th 4450/4470-4530/4550 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.08, IV 16.3%

Train Keeps A-rollin

#VIXindicator After a break of only 6 trading days, the Upside Warning is back on, meaning a likelihood of higher market over the next days or weeks. That is TWO consecutive cancelations of the Upside Warning that were NOT followed by a Downside Warning.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 14th 4455/4475-4555/4575 condors, sold this morning for 1.05.

Profit for week: +5.05

Economic Calendar week of 7/17 – 7/21

This is from Bloomberg, and only showing the Market Moving items (triple bull)

Screen Shot 2023-07-14 at 11.52.04 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 4455/4475-4555/4575 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 19.45%

Removing Upside Risk

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 14th 4540/4560 call spreads for 1.00. Condors sold this morning for 1.15. I will leave put side to expire. Action decidedly bullish, and Upside Warning may get reinstated tomorrow.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 4420/4440-4540/4560 condors for 1.15, Deltas -.07 +.07.

Trying something here… selling for tomorrow’s expiration with plan to assess at end of today. I may exit before today’s close if profit is there. No major economic data is scheduled to be released tomorrow.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX July 13th 4420/4440-4520/4540 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.07

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX July 12th 4390/4410-4510/4530 condors, sold this morning for 1.00.

I am at 3.00 profit for the week, similar to last week before Thursday’s overreaction to weekly jobs number took it all away. So imma proceed cautiously and wait for morning to consider a trade.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 12th 4390/4410-4510/4530 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.05

CPI in June

Up only 0.2%, less than the 0.3% expected. Lowest since February 2021.
Year on year: +3.0% vs 3.1% estimate.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 11th 4325/4345-4455/4475 condors, sold yesterday morning for 1.05.

Will watch market’s reaction to CPI report in the morning and consider trades then.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 10th 4340/4360-4435/4455 condors, sold this morning for .95

Holding until tomorrow: July 11th 4325/4345-4455/4475 condors, sold later in the morning for 1.05. Deltas are down to -.04 +.04. Had I waited to sell now, I would have been 20 points narrower and probably .10 less premium. Perfect sideways day.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 11th 4325/4345-4455/4475 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 13.95%

This worked last Monday, so trying again, selling next day’s early to get additional width on the wings. This is ahead of Wednesday morning’s CPI report so good chance we chop around today and tomorrow.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 10th 4340/4360-4435/4455 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 18.1%

June Jobs Report

#Jobs — Lower than expected.

Gain of +209,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 230K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.6%, as expected
U6 unemployment 6.9%, up by 0.2
Labor force participation 62.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.4% increase over the year, stronger than expected

May jobs revised down by -33K to +306K
April jobs revised down by -77K to +211K

SPX 1-dte LONG

#SPX1dte Not comfortable going short after today, and especially with another jobs report coming in the morning. I was planning to avoid tomorrow’s *monthly* report, not thinking today’s *weekly* report would shake the market like it did. So I will take a cheap shot at another out-sized move… and consider other trades after the report is released at 8:30am ET

Bought to open $SPX July 7th 4325/4345-4465/4485 condors for .80, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 16.3%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 6th 4410/4390 put spreads for 5.50. I am a lucky bastard that we got this bounce, but I neither deserve a better price if it comes, or want to risk a worse price if we fall.

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled today when $VIX spiked 25% above Friday’s close. It went into effect on June 5th, when the close was 4,273.79. The subsequent high of 4,458.48 was on Friday, a 4.3% increase.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 6th 4390/4410-4490/4510 condors for .90, deltas -.08 +.06, SPX at 4450, IV 12.2%.

Expiring: 4400/4380 put spreads, sold this morning, and call side of condors sold Monday (4495/4515)