CPI rose 0.1% in November

Prices across a broad range of goods and services edged higher in November as energy prices declined, providing hope that inflation could be on a lower trajectory.

The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.

While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month ago.

Excluding volatile and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates and little changed from October.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html

SPX trades 12/11

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 4550/4570-4635/4655 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 16.2%

Economic Calendar 12/11 – 12/15

Inflation reports and Fed decision the week!

Screenshot 2023-12-10 at 9.42.27 AM
Screenshot 2023-12-10 at 9.42.46 AM

SPX trades 12/8

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4515/4535-4630/4660 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 21.65%

Muted reaction to Jobs number, wish I could have sold before the report but been burned too many times this year.

November Jobs Report

#Jobs — A bit more than expected. Wages increased strongly.

Gain of +199,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 185K
Unemployment down by 0.2 to 3.7%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.0%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.8%, up by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.0% increase over the year

September jobs revised down by -35K to +262K
October jobs unchanged at 150K

SPX trades 12/7

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 4500/4520-4590/4610 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 16.7%

Weekly jobless claims came in exactly as expected so market has no meaningful reaction. Tomorrow’s MONTHLY job number may have more impact as we have both CPI and Fed Decision coming next week.

Bearish?

Today’s candlestick is bearish engulfing. Similar to last Wednesday, but that time was not engulfing on the lower side like today’s.

SPX trades 12/6

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 6th 4555/4535 put spreads for 1.15, delta -.17

SPX trades 12/5

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 5th 4610/4630 call spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.45. 4520/4500 put spreads still short. Econ data coming at 9:45 & 10 ET.

SPX trades 12/4

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 4th 4525/4545-4620/4640 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 18%

#riskreversal

Economic Calendar 12/4 – 12/8

JOBS report is Friday
Screenshot 2023-12-01 at 12.53.48 PM
Screenshot 2023-12-01 at 12.54.06 PM

SPX trades 12/1

#SPX1dte Sokd to Open $SPX 4515/4535-4610/4630 condors for .65, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 20.2%

Waited until Powell finished remarks and for Q&A to begin. Went with less aggressive deltas, so I have less chance of stepping in sh*t on a Friday.

#riskreversal

SPX trades 11/30

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 4525/4505 put spreads for .55, delta -.09, IV 18.45%. Sold 4 minutes after jobless claims and other data released.

SPX trades 11/29

#SPX1dte Sold partial of $SPX Nov 29th 4590/4610 call spreads for 3.00. Bought yesterday for .30.

Overnight rally came through. Now bouncing around after GDP numbers came in a bit above estimates and some yapping from Fed members.

#riskreversal

SPX trades 11/28

#SPX1dte Condor sold yesterday is doing fine so will allow to expire unless challenged

Sold to Open $SPX Nov 29th (next day) 4485/4505-4585/4605 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 10.4%

SPX trades 11/27

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 27th 4510/4530-4585/4605 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09 +.06, IV 14.5%

Economic Calendar 11/27 – 12/1

Screenshot 2023-11-26 at 4.55.52 PM
Screenshot 2023-11-26 at 4.56.17 PM

No trade

#SPX1dte Not enough premium on the usual 6-delta spreads so I may not be placing a trade today. I’ll take another look after the open.

SPX trades 11/22

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 4495/4515-4585/4605 condors for 1.00, deltas -.09 +.06, IV 17.1%

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 21st 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for .95, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 10.95%

What news just hit?

Anyone know reason for sudden pop?

SPX trades 11/20

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 20th 4460/4480-4540/4560 condors for 1.40, deltas -.09 +.10, IV 16.8%

This may be narrowest condor I’ve sold in early AM and also highest deltas. The next deltas out were -.07 and only +.04. So I went more aggressive with a width of 60 rather than 70. Market is expecting a quiet holiday week.

Economic Calendar 11/20 – 11/24

Market closed on Thursday, and closes early on Friday (1pm ET)

Screenshot 2023-11-19 at 8.33.39 PM
Screenshot 2023-11-19 at 8.34.11 PM

SPX trades 11/17

#SPX1dte Going for another #RiskReversal. If it doesn’t pull through I will sell a lower call spread.

Sold to Open $SPX Nov 17th 4475/4455 put spreads, delta -.08
Bought to Open Nov 17th 4565/4585 call spreads, delta +.04
Net CREDIT .10

SPX trades 11/16

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 4440/4460-4545/4565 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 20%

SPX trades 11/15

#SPX1dte Super late to game but with retail sales number coming and already strong $TGT earnings, going with bullish #riskreversal…

Sold $SPX Nov 15th 4460/4440 put spreads, delta -.08
Bought 4570/4590 call spread, delta +.05
Net CREDIT .05

SPX trades 11/13

#SPX1dte Waiting for the open to sell. Call premiums are much higher than put premium at comparable deltas.

Inflation flat in October

Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a hopeful sign that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.

Headline CPI had increased 0.4% in September.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html

SPX trades 11/13

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 13th 4345/4365-4450/4470 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 20.3%

Economic Calendar for 11/13 – 11/17

CPI report is Tuesday morning

Screenshot 2023-11-11 at 9.09.35 AM
Screenshot 2023-11-11 at 9.09.51 AM

SPX trades 11/10

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 10th 4290/4310-4400/4420 condors for .90, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 21.3%

SPX trades 11/9

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 9th 4355/4335 put spreads for .65, delta -.10, IV 20.2%

Upside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator Third consecutive $VIX close below the 78.6% retracement means an Upside Warning. Expect possibility of higher market in coming days or weeks.

The last time this fired was September 1st, and it was a dud; the market did not get higher at all over the 16 days until it was canceled. Here are the recent results of the UpW’s before that:

July 14, 2023: close on that day: 4,505. Subsequent high was 4,607 on July 27. 9 trading days, +2.3%
June 5, 2023: close on that day: 4,274. Subsequent high was 4,458 on June 30. 18 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 30, 2023: close on that day: 4,051. Subsequent high was 4,187 on May 1. 21 trading days, +3.4%
Nov 23, 2022: close on that day: 4,027. Subsequent high was 4195 on Feb 2. 47 trading days, +4.2%
Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days, 0.0%
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%

SPX trades 11/8

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 4345/4325 put sprewads for .60, delta -.08.
Futures trending upward so I will wait until after the open to sell call side.

SPX trades 11/7

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 4305/4325-4395/4415 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.07, IV 19.1%

Only 70-point range and aggressive deltas to get the premium over a dollar.

#rolling

SPX trades 11/6

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 6th 4295/4315-4405/4425 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 20.9%

Economic Calendar 11/6 – 11/10

Screenshot 2023-11-04 at 9.38.35 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 3rd 4290/4310-4390/4410 condors for 1.00, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 23.2%

Watching on tight leash as I’m at end of wining week.

October Jobs Report

#Jobs — A bit less than expected and a big drop from September.

Gain of +150,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 170K
Unemployment up 0.1 to 3.9%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.2%, up by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.7%, down by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; 4.1% increase over the year

September jobs revised down by -39K to +297K
August jobs revised down by -62K to +165K

SPX trades 11/2

#SPX1dte Just before close yesterday I did a bullish #RiskReversal, since reaction to Fed decision was positve.

Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 4175/4155 put spreads
Bought to Open Nov 2nd 4300/4320 call spreads
Net CREDIT +0.25

This morning the call spread is doing well, and I’ll wait until after open to see if we can kick higher. I will also probably roll up the put spread.

#rolling

SPX trades 10/31

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4125/4105 put spreads for .70, delta -.08 IV 25.1%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte BTC call side for 2.35. My error was not legging in. With pre-market up I should have only sold puts and waited for open to sell calls. This is the current reality in volatile markets. For same day trades, if pre-market is trending sell only in opposite direction and wait for open spike up or down.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 30th 4060/4080-4185/4205 condors for 1.45, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 28.8%

Economic Calendar 10/30 – 11/3

FOMC decision on Wednesday and Jobs Report on Friday

Screenshot 2023-10-30 at 5.33.45 AM
Screenshot 2023-10-30 at 5.34.31 AM

SPX trades 10/27

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 27th 4065/4085-4210/4230 condors for 1.15, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 31%

SPX trade 10/26

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 4110/4090 put spreads for .75, delta -.06, IV 31.3%. Sold after GDP and Jobless data were released.

SPX trades 10/25

#SPX1dte #Rolling Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 4280/4300 call spreads for .60. Delta -.08, IV 26.1%.

Bearish MACD crossover on 5-min /ES chart. My 4310 short calls pretty far OTM; order in to close for .05.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 4160/4180-4310/4330 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 19.5%

SPX trades today

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 24th 4145/4125 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.

MACD bearish crossover in futures half-hour ago, but it may be short-lived. Call side stop has not been breached.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 4125/4145-4280/4300 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 20.3%

Economic Calendar 10/23 – 10/27

Screenshot 2023-10-23 at 5.48.20 AM
Screenshot 2023-10-23 at 5.48.37 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 23rd 4130/4150-4275/4295 condors for 1.15, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 30.7%

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 4180/4200-4325/4345 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 32.5%

VIX high

$SPX was lower a couple weeks ago, but this is a new $VIX high, highest since March.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4265/4245 put spreads for .95, delta -.09, IV 31.6%

Futures were flat when jobless claims report came out and then we ticked a bit higher. MACD bullish crossover on 5-min chart. I will look to sell call side and roll up put side if strength continues.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 18th 4280/4300-4405/4425 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 26.9%

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 4280/4300-4405/4425 condors for 1.25, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 26.4%

Economic Calendar 10/16 – 10/20

Screenshot 2023-10-16 at 11.39.59 AM

Another beautiful day, another stop

#SPX1dte Rather than getting stopped out in sunny Los Angeles, I’m being stopped out in a cloudless sunny morning of the Colorado mountains.

Bought to close call side for 2.20.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 4265/4285-4395/4415 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 27%

Flat

#SPX1dte. Closed call side for .15 and put side for .35. Profit for day +.75

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 13th 4275/4295-4405/4425 condors for 1.25, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 27%

Revenge Trade

#SPX1dte At 37 minutes before the close, Sold $SPX Oct 11th 4360/4365/4370 call butterfly for 1.30. Risking 3.70 to make 1.30. Trade expired worthless.

Market was more subdued today but still was whipsaw swinging. This is first time I have done a narrow butterfly like this; although market was consolidating at 4365 for about 30 minutes, it seemed apparent there would be another move before the close so I took this shot. It succeeded when market shot higher into the close.

No trade for tomorrow to avoid the CPI report aftermath (plus I’m driving to Colorado). I will consider a trade Friday morning. I am breakeven for the week, so I want to break the losing streak, even if it’s only by a dollar or so.

Flat

#SPX1dte Had to close put side as this steady march downward has small chance of following through. BTC puts for .25, so profit on day +.85

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close call side for .15. Today looking less bullish, however, the rallies in last few days started later in the morning so I’m getting out of the way.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 4290/4310-4420/4440 condors for 1.25, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 26.3%.

Slight bullish lean based on futures being slightly higher and the 5-day trend. Producer Price Index (PPI) report coming up at 8:30am ET.

Stopped

#SPX1dte. Neutral trading just not in the cards right now. Closed this morning’s call side for 2.05.

Now I need to worry about the one I sold yesterday. As we’ve been seeing for a third day straight, the move up moves quickly and steadily, then stops when it finds its level. Unfortunately, I just don’t know what that level will be. Yesterday I stopped out but would have been fine. Friday I stopped out and avoided a much bigger loss.

SPX part 2

#SPX1dte. Doubling down today. I know, I know, I’ve sworn off pushing boundaries… but I definitely need some catch-up premium in this slump.

Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 4260/4280-4385/4405 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 25.6%

IV higher in the AM than when I sold yesterday afternoon, as usual. This means I got same premium for a condor that is not much narrower. I will be looking to close one of the legs on each side as soon as premium drops.

SPX-1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 4245/4265-4390/4410 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 17.9%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped out of call side for 2.00. This was clearly a day i needed to close when the closing was cheap, and not wait for a stop.

Economic Calendar 10/9 – 10/13

Monthly CPI report is released Thursday morning.

Screenshot 2023-10-09 at 5.34.52 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 9th 4210/4230-4345/4365 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 28.2%

Torpedoed again

#SPX1dte Another week torpedoed by over-trading on a Friday. Just a blistering reversal that I could not get filled on, so chased all the way to close for 7.80.

Third losing week in a row. I set some new rules for myself last Friday and I stuck with them mostly… until today. My first error was selling before the report. I got stopped out on bottom for a small loss. My second error was selling too soon after the open, but even if I had waited this rally would have stopped me. My last error was not being aggressive enough on exiting when my upside stop was hit.

So the new rule I am implementing today is a temporary halt on trading for CPI report, Fed announcement, and Jobs report days. I will not place trades for these days until current volatility comes down and inflation/interest rate concerns significantly diminish.

SPX roll

#SPX1dte Trying a new one: Sold to Open $SPX Oct 6th 4150/4170-4285/4305 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 32.6%, SPX at 4230.

The put side is only 5 points below my last one, since we bounced higher than from when I was stopped out.

Already stopped!

#SPX1dte Well, should have stuck to my plan of WAITING, but fortunately I only suffered a loss of .40. The low of the morning so far in $SPX futures breeched my stop level, and then we got a decent enough of a bounce to minimize the cost of closing put side. I closed it for 2.00. I will look for another trade AFTER the open; waiting to see it settle into a range.