#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 17th 4450/4470-4530/4550 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.08, IV 16.3%
Author Archives: Jeff
Train Keeps A-rollin
#VIXindicator After a break of only 6 trading days, the Upside Warning is back on, meaning a likelihood of higher market over the next days or weeks. That is TWO consecutive cancelations of the Upside Warning that were NOT followed by a Downside Warning.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 14th 4455/4475-4555/4575 condors, sold this morning for 1.05.
Profit for week: +5.05
Economic Calendar week of 7/17 – 7/21
This is from Bloomberg, and only showing the Market Moving items (triple bull)
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 4455/4475-4555/4575 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 19.45%
Removing Upside Risk
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 14th 4540/4560 call spreads for 1.00. Condors sold this morning for 1.15. I will leave put side to expire. Action decidedly bullish, and Upside Warning may get reinstated tomorrow.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 4420/4440-4540/4560 condors for 1.15, Deltas -.07 +.07.
Trying something here… selling for tomorrow’s expiration with plan to assess at end of today. I may exit before today’s close if profit is there. No major economic data is scheduled to be released tomorrow.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX July 13th 4420/4440-4520/4540 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.07
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX July 12th 4390/4410-4510/4530 condors, sold this morning for 1.00.
I am at 3.00 profit for the week, similar to last week before Thursday’s overreaction to weekly jobs number took it all away. So imma proceed cautiously and wait for morning to consider a trade.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 12th 4390/4410-4510/4530 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.05
CPI in June
Up only 0.2%, less than the 0.3% expected. Lowest since February 2021.
Year on year: +3.0% vs 3.1% estimate.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 11th 4325/4345-4455/4475 condors, sold yesterday morning for 1.05.
Will watch market’s reaction to CPI report in the morning and consider trades then.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 10th 4340/4360-4435/4455 condors, sold this morning for .95
Holding until tomorrow: July 11th 4325/4345-4455/4475 condors, sold later in the morning for 1.05. Deltas are down to -.04 +.04. Had I waited to sell now, I would have been 20 points narrower and probably .10 less premium. Perfect sideways day.
SPX next day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 11th 4325/4345-4455/4475 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 13.95%
This worked last Monday, so trying again, selling next day’s early to get additional width on the wings. This is ahead of Wednesday morning’s CPI report so good chance we chop around today and tomorrow.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 10th 4340/4360-4435/4455 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 18.1%
June Jobs Report
#Jobs — Lower than expected.
Gain of +209,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 230K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.6%, as expected
U6 unemployment 6.9%, up by 0.2
Labor force participation 62.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.4% increase over the year, stronger than expected
May jobs revised down by -33K to +306K
April jobs revised down by -77K to +211K
SPX 1-dte LONG
#SPX1dte Not comfortable going short after today, and especially with another jobs report coming in the morning. I was planning to avoid tomorrow’s *monthly* report, not thinking today’s *weekly* report would shake the market like it did. So I will take a cheap shot at another out-sized move… and consider other trades after the report is released at 8:30am ET
Bought to open $SPX July 7th 4325/4345-4465/4485 condors for .80, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 16.3%
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 6th 4410/4390 put spreads for 5.50. I am a lucky bastard that we got this bounce, but I neither deserve a better price if it comes, or want to risk a worse price if we fall.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled today when $VIX spiked 25% above Friday’s close. It went into effect on June 5th, when the close was 4,273.79. The subsequent high of 4,458.48 was on Friday, a 4.3% increase.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 6th 4390/4410-4490/4510 condors for .90, deltas -.08 +.06, SPX at 4450, IV 12.2%.
Expiring: 4400/4380 put spreads, sold this morning, and call side of condors sold Monday (4495/4515)
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 5th 4400/4380 put spreads for .75. Delta -.07, IV 18.25%
Adding to my already existing 4375/4395-4495/4515 condors, sold Monday morning for 1.25. Futures are at the low end of their overnight range, so making a bet on a drift higher into today’s close. This does however, double my risk on downside. Expected move is only 18.67 at 30 minutes before the open (usually between 20-25 at this time in last couple months).
SPX next day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 5th 4375/4395-4495/4515 condors for 1.25, deltas -.07 +.07, SPX at 4448, IV 10.1%.
Jumping in early on this one, at risk of the three hours remaining today spoiling my fun.
SPX same (half) day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 5th 4395/4415-4475/4495 condors for .80, deltas -.06 +.07
Halfway through 2023
#SPX1dte The halfway mark, and I’m at 17.0% ROI for this strategy. That projects to be 34% annually. I have averaged 1.21 per week, or $3,151 for each 15K invested.
Before my smash up at end of April I was on track for 100% annually (3.00 per week). That goal is not reasonable, as Q1 was a relative breeze to manage. My expectation was and still is 2.00 per week. I am low now because April/May
losses were higher than they would be had I handled it properly. Nonetheless, it was a good lesson. It will be tough to get back to 2.00 average by end of the year, but I’ll try.
No trade for Monday, which is a half day for the market. Premium is just too low to bother with. I will consider a trade or two before the open Monday morning.
Happy Fourth everyone! Refresh your browser for patriotic awesomeness!
SPX risk reversal
#SPX1dte Sold last HALF of #RiskReversal long for 4.78 (legged out): $SPX Jun 30th 4455/4475 call spreads. Entered for -.20 debit last Friday. Sold first half for measly .60 yesterday, not thinking we’d be here today. Short put spread expiring worthless.
It does rescue my week from being a loss, now a small profit.
Looks like I picked the wrong time to…
…switch back to shorts. I’m always off on timing. Today we get the rip higher I was expecting this week, but only after I threw in the towel.
Bought to close $SPX Jun 30th 4445/4465 call spreads for 3.70. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
My only hope now is the second half of my 4455/4475 LONG call spread. This is 10 points higher than the one I just closed, so I’m rooting for a super rip of a day so I can recoup the loss.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 30th 4320/4340-4445/4465 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4389, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 15%
Expiring: Jun 29th 4305/4325-4415/4435 condors, sold yesterday for .95
SPX R/R
#SPX1dte Sold to close HALF of #RiskReversal I entered last Friday: $SPX Jun 30th 4455/4475 call spreads for .60. R/R entered for -0.20 debit.
Switching back
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 29th 4305/4325-4415/4435 condors for .95, deltas -.06 +.06, SPX at 4369, IV 13.1%
It was an informative test run going long, but I think it’s better suited for occasional shots while sticking to short strategy on the regular.
SPX scraps
#SPX1dte Sold to close $SPX Jun 28th 4330/4310 put spreads for .45. Condors bought yesterday for .70.
I do not think a big drop is in the cards today so taking what I can.
SPX 1-dte long
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Jun 28th 4310/4330-4430/4450 condors for .70, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX partial
#SPX1dte Sold to close HALF of position: $SPX Jun 27th 4380/4400 call spreads for 2.00. Condors bought yesterday for .85. Holding second half to see if I can grab a juicier price.
SPX1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Jun 27th 4260/4280-4380/4400 condors for .80, just AFTER closing bell, deltas -.05 +.05
Expired at a loss: Jun 26th 4285/4305-4395/4415 condors, bought Friday for 1.00
Going long really flips the script. You have to bear through consecutive small losses to get that less frequent but potentially larger win. My usual short approach is enjoying multiple small wins but then getting smacked down by less frequent but bigger losses.
SPX 1-dte LONG
#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Jun 26th 4285/4305-4395/4415 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, SPX at 4353, IV 7.55%.
Need a move in either direction for profit.
Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte Since these are so cheap I’m adding another #RiskReversal, since with Upside Warning and declining $VIX, I’m less concerned with a correction coming in the next week (although it is still entirely possible, in which case I will stop out of put side).
Sold to Open $SPX Jun 30th 4250/4230 put spreads
Bought to Open Jun 30th 4455/4475 call spreads
Net DEBIT -0.25
SPX stop hit
#SPX1dte Another day, another stop. Been doing a lot of thinking this week and realized that whatever has caused the change in SPX option chain does not matter. It has changed. At least for now. The distance between .06 deltas for the next day is consistently under 100 and sometimes under 90. This stands in contrast to the 1st quarter this year, during a prolonged upside warning, where the distance stayed above 120 even on calm days.
The $VIX spent that quarter mostly between 17 and 23. This week we have been drifting to 3-year lows even as we head for a down week. This is likely the reason for the tight range, and it hopefully can widen again after we go through a small (or big) correction.
Until then, the last two weeks demonstrate that going LONG on these condors is the more profitable approach. On the traditional #SPX1dte short daily condors, stops were hit on 7 out of the 9 trading days. I could have easily made 2.00 on each one of those days, by buying a condor for about -1.00 and selling one side for at least +3.00. It’s a much tougher strategy to manage however, as selling for 3.00 may remove the chance to sell for more, or even ending day fully ITM for 19.00 profit, which could have been the case last Thursday. But of course, waiting for those types of windfalls risks losing all profit.
This is a tough switch to make. I tried it last summer, but as soon as I switched the market calmed to the point that I had to switch back to short. I stayed with the short strategy ever since. So if I make this switch, it may be short lived; I can wait for widths to return to 105 points or more consistently. Or I may switch between them on a daily basis, based on conditions.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 23rd 4315/4335-4420/4440 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4376, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 12.4%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 22nd 4390/4410 call spreads for .50. Paired with 4330/4310 put spreads sold yesterday for .50. Pretty tight range, so we’ll see how it goes.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 22nd 4330/4310 put spreads for .50, delta -.07.
In my usual horrendous method of legging in, I sold this before the afternoon low, expecting a rally into close. Looking to sell call side if that rally materializes.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jun 21st 4345/4325 put spreads for .30. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15
Am I sick of stops being hit nearly every day? Yes. But into this upside warning it feels like 1st Quarter of this year, where we’d swing in the morning but relax after first hour. With $VIX hitting new lows this morning, I held out. I would like to see the 120-170 point width we saw in 1Q return, but deltas remain frustratingly narrow.
New VIX THREE YEAR low
#VIXindicator The $VIX just hit a new low, exceeding the low from Friday and touching its lowest level since February of 2020.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 21st 4325/4345-4435/4455 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4389, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 20th 4360/4340 put spreads for 1.65. Small loss to start week. I avoided a trade that spanned the long weekend, but definitely plan to switch to overnight trades as the spreads on the morning trades have become too narrow.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 20th 4340/4360-4440/4460 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 18.9%
Monday holiday
This is the first year stock market will be closed for Juneteenth.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jun 16th 4500/4520 call spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
I’m keeping the second half of Jun 23rd 4450/4470 call spreads into next week. I believe these can go ITM.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 16th 4345/4365-4500/4520 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 19.55%, SPX at 4430.
SPX long
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Sold to close HALF of position: $SPX Jun 23rd 4450/4470 call spreads for 5.00. Risk reversals entered last Friday for -.30 debit. Saving second half at least into tomorrow, possibly for next week.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jun 15th 4405/4425 call spreads for 3.75. Super frustrating. Puts my week in the negatiuve, not counting my long call spreads which are in profit about 3.50. Stop hit, but couldn’t get decent pullback so ended up chasing higher.
I want to switch back to selling in afternoon to get wider on these condors. It has been awhile since we’ve had any large overnight moves, and I have been unable to reach the 3.00 per week target again since my April/May drawdown.
And of course, as soon as I’m forced out, the pullback begins in earnest.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 15th 4285/4305-4405/4425 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 24.2%
SPX put spread
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 14th 4320/4300 put spreads for .95, filled at 10:16am, delta -.09
I’m expecting a rise higher after Fed announcement, so I may only sell put side today.
SPX long positions
#SPX1dte Sold to close HALF of position: $SPX June 16th 4450/4470 call spreads for 1.20. #RiskReversal entered on June 5th for -.30 debit. I’ll make a decision later today on how long to hold second half, since this expires Friday.
I have the same long spread for June 23rd expiry, also a R/R entered for -.30 debit. Currently trading at +2.50, so I’ll give it room to grow.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 13th 4280/4300-4400/4420 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09 +.05, IV 24.5%.
Sold four and a half minutes after CPI data release.
CPI year over year was +4.0%, as expected. A pause in interest rate hikes is expected in tomorrow’s announcement.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte More evidence we should close legs when it’s cheap and market is showing directional bias. This surge over the last hour hit my stop, so bought to close $SPX Jun 12th 4345 calls for .30.
I think it is probable that we’ll see a strong day tomorrow, after the CPI report is released. The report will likely be a lower number, reflecting the downward trend, and it should signal a dovish Fed decision on Wednesday. I have two long positions that would benefit, and I’ll decide how to trade the same-day based on the reaction.
New highs
$SPX just broke through the high of last August. We are now at the highest level since April 2022. Next stop is 4,637.30 high from March 29, 2022.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 12th 4250/4270-4345/4365 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06 IV 18.2%
SPX down and out
#SPX1dte Well, that kinda blew up in my face… it was only a glancing blow but sucks nonetheless. BTC 4290/4270 put spreads for 2.50.
Today will likely be one where I was stopped out on both ends but the day will end safely in between… however, it’s only because I tried the #ReverseRoll. But it reduced my week from being best in 4 months to just being average.
Last Friday made my week, this one torpedoed it.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte. Bought to close call side for 1.30. Stop not yet hit when I closed this, but I’m not letting a Friday ruin a good week. $TICK has been below zero most of the day but $VIX dropping and $SPX moving higher. This may be the start of the rally we’ve been waiting for.
Looking to enter a couple more bullish positions, maybe another put spread for today and another long term #RiskReversal since the one I bought on Monday is fizzling out.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 9th 4235/4255-4335/4355 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 19%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jun 8th 4310 calls for .10. Got a good week going so not gonna let a surprise move ruin it.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 8th 4210/4230-4310/4330 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 19.4%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close put side for .10… my stop was not hit but it got close, so taking risk off as I will be away from computer into close. Profit for day is 1.15.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 7th 4230/4250-4320/4340 condors for 1.25, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 18.9%
This is more aggressive on deltas to get some premium. Tight range established last couple of days needs to continue for this trade to succeed.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 6th 4215/4235-4310/4330 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 19.3%.
The IV for today’s chain was only 12.9% before the close yesterday. That extra IV that comes in overnight is why these morning trades have been the better bet. But now that the market isn’t swinging much overnight the choice is tougher. For the same premium 15 minutes before yesterday’s close, I could have gotten 5 more points on put side and 10 more on call side (-.06 +.06 deltas)
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close on Monday, meaning probable upside to the market in coming days or weeks. This one comes after the previous UpW was canceled on May 2nd, but no Downside Warning resulted. The market chopped around for a month but stayed fairly strong.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Today’s same-day trade expiring, sold this morning for 1.05. It still looks like a better bet to sell in the morning, as afternoon trades give slightly LESS premium per delta, and only 5 to 10 points of extra width.
Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte Adding a longer term bullish position:
Sold to open $SPX Jun 16th 4075/4055 put spreads
Bought to open $SPX Jun 16th 4450/4470 call spreads
Net DEBIT .30
I’ll use expected move for the put side stop-out, which is currently 91 points, so SPX 4166. I’ll look for 5.00 or more if we fly up this week, but lower my goal if we stall out or rise slowly.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 5th 4220/4240-4320/4340 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 19.8%
SPX profit
#SPX1dte Sold to close the remaining call spreads for 5.00 and 6.00, with a few contracts expiring for 0.00. My main account saw composite profit of 2.78 on the trade.
Tough decisions being long when high of day and close are ATM. Obviously sold the first half too cheaply but you can only say that in hindsight. I have tried these trades many times and this is a rare time I was correct about the move and how far it would go.
Lock in
#SPX1dte Sold to close HALF my long call spreads for 2.20. This locks in +.95 of profit on the whole trade. I’m going to give it time now to see if we can reach the 4285 short strike.
May Jobs Report
#Jobs — Higher than expected again. And a gain of +94K in prior month revisions.
Gain of +339,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up by 0.3 to 3.7%, higher than expected gain to 3.5%
U6 unemployment 6.7%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation 62.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; 4.3% increase over the year, 0.1 less than expected.
March jobs revised up by +53K to +217K
April jobs revised up by +41K to +294K
Taking a shot
#SPX1dte After losing the week’s profits yesterday on the rip higher, I’m taking a shot today that the jobs report will release us to go even higher, now that debt ceiling is resolved. Went with #RiskReversal for upside.
Sold to Open $SPX June 2nd 4185/4165 put spreads
Bought to open $SPX June 2nd 4285/4305 call spreads
Total DEBIT -0.15
deltas -.07 +.05
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC call side for 2.00
Pretty deep dip in $VIX happening, could finally be the push higher that debt ceiling resolution will trigger.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 1st 4120/4140-4225/4245 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.07
Risk off
#SPX1dte BTC put side for .10.
In other news, the long call spread I bought last week is at zilch. Best chance to sell was yesterday morning, but I was holding out for a bit more. Knocks 90 cents off my week.
