#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 14th 3775/3795-3970/3990 condors for 1.40, deltas -.06 +.06
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX puts closed
$SPX1dte Earlier, Bought to close $SPX Mar 13th 3750/3730 for .10. Taking a cue from last week and closing puts when I can. Condors sold Friday for 1.25, expecting call side to expire.
No trade for Tuesday due to CPI report release.
SPX bearish long
#spx5dte Taking a shot for a bearish week since $VIX has exploded and Downside Warning started. Probably take half off if it doubles soon, then wait for more.
Bought to Open $SPX March 17th 3700/3680 put spreads for 2.00. SPX at 3878.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator Fired at the close with $VIX over 25% higher than its two-day closing low.
Here are recent Downside Warnings for reference:
Fired 9/23/22, at the SPX close of 3,693.23. The SPX low of 3,491.58 was 14 trading days later (-5.5%)
Fired 4/22/22, at the SPX close of 4,272. The SPX low of 3,637 was 39 trading days later (-14.9%)
Fired 2/11/22, at the SPX close of 4,419. The SPX low of 4,115 was 8 trading days later (-6.9%).
Fired 1/20/22, at the SPX close of 4,483. The SPX low of 4,223 was 2 trading days later (-5.8%).
Fired 11/26/21, at the SPX close of 4,585. The SPX low of 4,495 was 5 trading days later (-2.0%).
Fired 9/20/21, canceled quickly but fired again on 9/28/21, at the SPX close of 4,353. The SPX low of 4,278 was 4 trading days later (-1.7%).
Fired 8/18/21, at the SPX close of 4,427. The SPX low of 4,368 was the next day, so another FALSE warning (-1.3%).
Fired 7/19/21, at the SPX close of 4,258. The SPX low was also that day, so this was a FALSE warning.
Fired 5/11/21, at the SPX close of 4,152. The SPX low was the next day at 4,056, so basically a FALSE warning. It dipped again 5 trading days after that to 4,061, then recovered from there(-2.3%).
Fired 2/25/21, at the SPX close of 3,829. The SPX low of 3,723 was 5 trading days later (-2.8%).
Fired 1/27/21, at the SPX close of 3,750. The SPX low of 3,694 was only 2 days later (-1.5%).
Fired 9/3/20, at the SPX close of 3,455. The SPX low of 3,209 was 3 weeks later on Sep 24th (-7.1%).
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In last minute before closing bell, sold to open $SPX March 13th 3730/3750-3955/3975, SPX at 3861, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 3850/3830 put spreads for 3.25. Condors sold an hour earlier for 1.50.
That makes for my worst week of 2023 so far, but still managed a profit of +1.35.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator Well, yesterday was not an anomaly. Drop continues, I will be stopped out, and the Upside Warning in effect since late November was just canceled with the $VIX spiking higher.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte SAME DAY Sold to Open $SPX March 10th 3830/3850-4010/4030 condors for 1.50, deltas -.06 +.06
February Jobs report
#Jobs — Down from January, but exceeding expectations again. Wage growth lower than expected, which may be taken as good news about inflation
Gain of +311,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 225K
Unemployment rose 3.6%, vs. expected 3.4%
U6 unemployment 6.8%, up by 0.2
Labor force participation 62.5%, up by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; 4.6% increase over the year. Both are 0.2 lower than expected.
January jobs revised down by -14K to +504K
December jobs revised down by -21K to +239K
Only takes one day
#SPX1dte Today is the first day in 2023 where my stop-out was necessary and saved money. Before today, all of my stop-outs had cost me 14.17, and all were unnecessary. If I hadn’t stopped out on any of those days, my YTD profit would have jumped from +34.85 to +49.02. That’s a huge difference. But today, we had 2023’s first strong breach of my short strike, and that +14.17 “woulda-coulda” number plummets to be -0.36.
So the “no-stop” alternative is now basically dead even with my actual profit.
Tomorrow, I will look for a same-day trade after the jobs number is released.
SPX trouble
#SPX1dte My stop is hit and I’m not risking this today. Looking for an exit. Behavior of $VIX and $TICK charts signal the possibility of a real flush out here. Watching closely for an exit on bounce.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 9th 3915/3935-4045/4065 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3991, deltas -.07 +.07
Went with 7 delta rather than usual 6; looking for a quiet day ahead of Friday morning’s job numbers.
Expired: March 8th 3905/3925-4050/4070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 8th 3905/3925-4050/4070 condors for 1.20, SPX at 3990, deltas -.06 +.06.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 7th 3975/3955 put spreads for .50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.80.
Stop was hit at the open. As part of my new approach I did not seek to close it quickly, but waited for a cheap exit. I got pretty good premium yesterday due to aggressive deltas and the impending Powell comments. So my profit is 1.30, which is around normal.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 7th 3955/3975-4120/4140 condors for 1.80, SPX at 4050, deltas -.07 +.07
Expiring: March 6th 3960/3980-4105/4125 condors, sold Friday for 1.30.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 6th 3960/3980-4105/4125 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4040, deltas -.08 +.05. Purposefully leaning a bit bullish, since some follow through from today’s rally may start the week.
As usual, the stop out ended up not being necessary, but short strike was breached so I’m happy with decision. Also managed to sell the long 4075 calls for .10, reducing my loss on the trade to be only -.50.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 3rd 4045 call for 2.00. Taking my first stop in just over 3 weeks. This is the kind of day that can sneak up and kill a trade. A Friday with a slow climb upwards. Odds are we have already topped out for the day, but chances of a follow through are good enough to take the small loss and retain a nicely profitable week of +4.30.
SPX-1dte part 2
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 3rd 3880/3910-4045/4075 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3979, deltas -.06 +.05
The wings on this are accidentally 30-points wide, so got a bit more premium with a bit more risk.
SPX1dte
#SPX1dte Not placing a trade for Friday since we have Jobs numbers released an hour before the open. I will consider a trade in that hour after the release.
Expiring: $SPX Mar 2nd 3865/3885-4015/4025 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 2nd 3865/3885-4015/4025 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3950, delta -.06 +.05
Expiring: March 1st 3890/3910-4035/4055 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 1st 3890/3910-4035/4055 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3973, deltas -.06 +.05
Expired: Feb 28th 3890/3910-4040/4060 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 28th 3890/3910-4040/4060 condors for 1.15. SPX at 3979, deltas -.05 +.06
Expired: Feb 27th 3860/3880-4030/4050 condors, sold Friday for 1.35.
Friday’s trades
#SPX1dte I was traveling Friday so I couldn’t post, but as usually happens when I travel, my trade was threatened. It was the first sharp threat I’ve had since I loosened my stop rules. I was able to keep an eye on it and even though we got within 4 points of my short put, I hung on and expired worthless.
Expired: $SPX Feb 24th 3920/3940-4090/4110 condors, sold Thursday for 1.30.
Then, Sold to Open $SPX Feb 27th 3860/3880-4030/4050 condors for 1.35.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 24th 3920/3940-4090/4110 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4019, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Feb 23rd 3885/3905-4050/4070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 23rd 3885/3905-4050/4070 condors for 1.20, SPX at 3981, deltas -.05 +.06
Expiring: Feb 22nd 3905/3925-4070/4090 condors, sold yesterday for 1.40.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Twelve minutes after closing bell, Sold to Open $SPX Feb 22nd 3905/3925-4070/4090 condors for 1.40.
SPX 1-dte
Expired: $SPX Feb 17th 3965/3985-4165/4185 condors , sold yesterday for 1.30.
Best week of the year so far: 4 trades, +5.50.
No trade for Tuesday due to my work schedule. Have a great 3-day weekend y’all.
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SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 17th 3965/3985-4165/4185 condors for 1.30.
Expired: Feb 16th 4045/4065-4200/4220 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 16th 4045/4065-4200/4220 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4139, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Feb 15th 4050/4070-4200/4220 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.
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Thanks, and happy trading,
Jeff
CPI report tomorrow
No trades expiring today and not placing one for tomorrow either, due to CPI report at 8:30am ET.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 10th 3980/4000-4155/4175 condors for 1.15.
Stopped out this morning when we opened at the day’s highs and my stop level was hit. Totally unnecessary. In fact, 100% of my stop-outs so far this year were not necessary. Had I gone with no-stop policy, my profits would be about 75% higher. Results from second half of last year are similar.
This year I have made a total of 16.10, but I have paid 12.75 for unnecessary exits.
(I trade one contract per 15K in each account. So 16.10 amounts to a 5.4%- 10.7% return on each account in 40 calendar days)
So I’m going to start a more relaxed approach. If stop level is hit (which is when SPX comes within the day’s expected move of either of my short strikes) I will watch closely and look for a chance to exit cheaply. If that chance does not come or I miss it, I will let it ride. If my strikes are breached, I will watch more closely and consider exiting for a loss.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Market soared on Powell’s remarks. It hit my stop but then retreated pretty quickly so I was able to wait for a cheap close.
Bought to close $SPX Feb 7th 4190/4210 call spreads for .45. Condors sold yesterday for 1.60.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 7th 4000/4020-4190/4210 condors for 1.60, SPX at 4106, deltas -.06 +.06.
Upside Warning finally coming through
#VIXindicator After peaking at 4100 on Dec 13th, $SPX made a hammock on a pullback. But the Upside Warning was never canceled. Now it is coming through with a new high on SPX and new low on $VIX.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 27th 3965/3985-4120/4140 condors for 1.35
Expired: Jan 26th 3910/3930-4075/4095 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 25th 3940/3920 put spreads for 2.65. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25.
First loss of 2023!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 25th 3920/3940-4075/4095 condors for 1.25, SPX at 4011, deltas -.06, +.06
Expiring: Jan 24h 3925/3945-4075/4095 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 24th 3925/3945-4075/4095 condors for 1.25
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I’ve been working the new job so unable to post as much. But the year has started well, with no losing trades, 8 winners, 2 breakevens.
Week 1: 4 trades, +2.60
Week 2: 3 trades, +3.55
Week 3: 3 trades, +3.90
Any questions, don’t hesitate.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 11th 3970 call for .30. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
No trade for tomorrow due to CPI report. May try to sell something after the release in the morning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 11th 3840/3860-3970/3990 condors for 1.30.
Today’s condor expired.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 10th 3805/3825-3970/3990 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3892, deltas -.07 +.05
Jobs Jobs Jobs
#Market The job growth just won’t abate… private sector growth way above expectations this morning, and market reacts negatively because it may signal continued rate hikes. Same could happen after tomorrow morning’s monthly report. I will not be trading tonight or tomorrow because of that and my schedule, and will likely skip a Monday trade as well.
Today’s trade is threatened but I did not stop out. The recent range has been pretty tight in terms of CLOSES…. intraday can get wanky, but last time the market closed in breach of my strikes was November 30 (I had stopped out earlier in day, so lost 4.00 rather than 20.00). In fact, I tracked all my #SPX1dte trades since May 1st, and I would have made about 13% more profit if I had followed a “no stop” approach, taking a few big losses but eliminating all of the small losses from stop-outs that ended up being unnecessary. So I’m analyzing the whole year to see if a no-stop approach would be okay.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 4th 3900/3920 call spreads for .30. Put side closed for .05. Condors sold for 1.60 yesterday.
Thursday trade will follow in comments.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte This morning, soon after bell, call-side stop was hit. Bought to close $SPX Jan 3rd 3905/3925 call spreads for 1.25. Condors sold for 1.30 on Friday.
Just now, sold to Open Jan 4th 3725/3745-3900/3920 condors for 1.60, SPX at 3823, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 30th 3780/3760 put spreads for .30. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15. Stop touched barely right after open, but it bounced so decisively I put it on watch rather than exiting quickly.
Final 4-day week profit: +2.98
That completes 2022 for me. I found a pretty steady profit and learned a lot more about managing this strategy. I’m doing some analysis of the year to assess whether any changes should occur for 2023. I’ll place the first trade for Tuesday expiration this afternoon.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 30th 3760/3780-3915/3935 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3853, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Yesterday, sold to open $SPX Dec 29th 3690/3710-3855/3875 condors for 1.20.
This morning, stopped out of the call side for 1.80.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 28th 3750/3770-3900/3920 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3836, deltas -.06 + .06
Expiring: Dec 27th 3735/3755-3905/3925 condors, sold Friday for 1.283
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 27th 3735/3755-3905/3925 condors for 1.283.
Expiring: Dec 23rd 3715/3735-3895/3915 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
Have a great weekend everyone!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 3715/3715-3895/3915 condors for 1.10, SPX at 3820, deltas -.06 +.06
Believe it or not, I broke my rule again today… but this time it was because I wasn’t at my computer at the open. Thought I was in for some real pain, but now flirting with a worthless expiration.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 3800/3820-3940/3960 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3872, deltas -.09, +.04, IV 19.25%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 21st 3730/3750-3885/3905 condors for 1.60, at about 12:30pm PT
CPI report tomorrow
Before the bell… IV at 90%, so I won’t be trading now… will look at opportunities after the report and closer to the open.
SPX trades
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Wednesday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.
Here is data on last several Upside Warnings.
Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3950/3970-4080/4100 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4026, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 11.3%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 4065/4085 call spreads for .20. Also closing put spreads. I doubt today’s Fed minutes will have much affect, but cannot be certain.
Fed Meeting Minutes today
#FOMC Released at 2pm Eastern… decision on interest rates will be released December 14th.
SPX 1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 23rd 3920/3940-4065/4085 condors for 1.40, SPX at 4000, deltas -.08 +.05. IV 19.5%.
Bullish lean as tomorrow will likely melt upwards slowly.
Expiring: Nov 22nd 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator $VIX closes at 22.36, ending the Downside Warning that started on Sept 22. If we get two more days closing under 22.50, it will mean an Upside Warning. Not surprising as Thanksgiving week is usually mildly bullish. And $SPX was actually down on the day… but volatility dropped steadily.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3950, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.8%
Today’s condor expired worthless.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 21st 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3960, deltas -.07 +.05
Today’s condor expiring worthless.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3820/3840-4010/4030 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3933, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.7%
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 17th 3880/3860 put spreads for 3.50. Filled at 6:14:47, 13 seconds before the 15-minute pause in trading before the opening bell.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 17th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3961, delta -.07 +.06, IV 24.4%
Expiring: Nov 16th 3895/3915-4050/4070 condors, sold this morning for 1.30
SPX same day
#SPX1dte In pre-market, Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 3895/3915-4050/4070 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 37.65%
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close each side of condor for .05 each. Closed risk as I’m on location scouts today and tomorrow. Not placing another trade probably until Wednesday morning.
Missed it by THAT much
#VIXIndicator Almost got the Downside Warning canceled on Friday. Closed $VIX at 22.52, needed 22.49. Next week should tell us whether the near term direction will continue higher or reverse lower.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 14th 3865/3885-4080/4100 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3995, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 17.34%
Expiring: Nov 11th 3865/3885-4040/4060 condors, sold this morning for 1.40.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Nov 11th 3865/3885-4040/4060 condors for 1.40. Deltas -.06 +.06
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Not sure if stop was breached but it was close. Bought to close $SPX Nov 9th 3735/3715 put spreads for .20. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
No trade for tomorrow due to CPI report at 8:30am ET
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3715/3735-3935/3955 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3843, IV 31.3%, deltas -.05 +.05
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