#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 8th 3880/3900 call spreads for .65. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 3715/3735-3880/3900 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3807, deltas -.07 +.05
Expiring: Nov 7th 3655/3675-3850/3870 condors, sold Friday for 1.35
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 3655/3675-3850/3870 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3758, deltas -.07 +.04, IV 16.1%
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 3810/3830 call spreads for .80. Condors sold for 1.35 this morning.
My P/L chart looks like railroad tracks on a candle chart. Here are results of last 4 weeks:
+4.70
-5.85
+7.90
-5.71
The good news is I can identify two mistakes from this week that turned it sour. If it weren’t for my human mistakes, the strategy would be the problem.
I have been tracking paper results if I used a “no stop” strategy, and it officially pulled slightly ahead of my actual gains. Had I gone with no stops since May 16th, my profits would be 11.7% higher.
As it is, my accounts are up an average of 22.3% since May 16th, using ONLY the #SPX1dte and a small amount of #SPX5dte.
Jobs continue to exceed expectations
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 in October, better than the estimate for 205,000.
The unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, while a broader jobless measure also increased, to 6.8%.
Big job gainers by industry included health care, professional and technical services, and leisure and hospitality.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and were up 4.7% from a year ago.
Labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a point to 62.2%.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte At 21 minutes after opening bell, sold to open $SPX Nov 4th 3630/3650-3810/3830 condors for 1.35. Deltas -.06 +.06
No trade before Jobs report
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX 3685/3665 put spreads for 3.10. Condors sold for 1.30 yesterday.
In retrospect, it was a bad trade. The market was plummeting into the close, but the IV for today’s option chain was low, and my wings were not far enough OTM. I also sold a few minutes before the close, so the last drop of the day pushed me closer to my put strike. I should have waited until after the closing bell, or even considered a bearish risk/reversal since such a bad drop in the final half-hour usually means we will open next day lower.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 3rd 3665/3685-3880/3900 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3776, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 30%
Watching today’s put spread carefully.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 3960/3980 call spreads for 2.00, SPX at 3885, delta probably about +.10 when filled.
Will consider a put side if we pull back enough.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 1st 3785/3805-3955/3975 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45
Not selling for tomorrow due to Fed announcement on rates at 2pm Eastern. If I’m available, I may place trades after the announcement.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 3785/3805-3955/3975 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3878, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 23.7%
Expiring: Oct 31st 3780/3800-3985/4005 condors, sold Friday for 1.45
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 3915 call for .30. Condors sold for 1.65. Stop hit with first spike above 3902. Monday trade will come in comment.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 16.50. Bought Tuesday for 17.75, so 1.25 loss. Not enough movement and too risky to hold until tomorrow.
1-dte trade to follow in comments.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 27th 3725/3745-3920/3940 condors for 1.60, SPX at 3833, IV 28%, deltas -.07 +.06
Expiring: Oct 26th 3740/3760-3935/3950, sold yesterday for 1.30
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 3740/3760-3935/3950 for 1.30, at 12 minutes after closing bell. Deltas -.07 +.04
This is broken wing, 20 points on puts, 15 on calls, due to limited strikes above 3950. Market moved on me after setting it up and getting filled ($MSFT and $GOOGL earnings), so deltas are skewed.
SPX 5-dte
#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 17.75. SPX was at 3838, these expire Friday so looking to be out by end of day Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 3685/3710-3900/3925 condors for 1.80, SPX at 3801, IV 30%, deltas -.07 +.05
25-point wide due to limited strikes available above 3900.
SPX 5-dte
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 19.30. Bought for 17.75 on Thursday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 3625/3645-3855/3875 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3753, IV 20%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 21st 3755/3775 call spreads for .90. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 17.75. First one of these I’ve done in a few weeks because volatility has made them too expensive. Here I’m only going 3 trading days out (Tuesday) so I can keep price under 18.00.
1-dte trades to follow in comments
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 3565/3585-3785/3805 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3687, IV 32.1%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Oct 19th 3600/3620-3770/3790 condors, sold this morning for 1.55.
SPX-1dte
#SPX1dte So much for this Risk/Reversal crap… i thought we’d get more of a rally here, especially with good earnings news. But I’ve been thoroughly bitch-whipsawed this week.
Sold to open $SPX (same day) Oct 19th 3600/3620-3770/3790 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3698, deltas -.06 +.07
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I am still bullish for more move higher. I’m trying a risk/reversal again, placed after the close then immediately helped by $NFLX blowout…
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 3635/3615 put spreads
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 19th 3820/3840 call spreads
Net DEBIT -.40.
SPX risk/reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Definitely late to game but I think we will go higher into close.
Sold $SPX Oct 18th 3675/3655 put spreads
Bought Oct 18th 3815/3835 call spreads
Net CREDIT +.05
Deltas -.07 +.07
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Not a fun thing to wake up to. Earlier, in pre-market, bought to close $SPX Oct 18th 3770/3790 call spreads for 6.00. That’s my biggest hit since June 24th. I really do not know what I was thinking yesterday, since it was an obvious day to play directionally to upside. I will consider a same day trade after the open.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 18th 3565/3585-3770/3790 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3685, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Oct 17th 3575/3595-3740/3760 condors, sold this morning for 1.20 after being stopped out of first one.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 17th 3700/3720 call spreads for 4.20. Condors sold for 1.30 on Friday. Looks like I picked the wrong day for my Risk/Reversal.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 3420/3460-3700/3720 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3595, deltas -.05 +.07
SPX R/R
When you are long one of these spreads, you are faced with decisions all day long (and even all night long with $SPX)… when to exit? With a small profit? Or wait for a bigger one.
Being short is easier.. if stop is hit, GET OUT.
Last night at 9:30pm Pacific I could have taken profits on call spread by selling at 2.50. I instead put in an order for 4.00, thinking we’d edge higher over night. Instead, we dropped. Then after the open, I put in a new sell order for 1.50… the opening spike got me to 1.35, so no fill. Now we have collapsed, and likely profit will be zero. Only hope is whatever volatility just spiked us down will be seen as a buying opportunity like yesterday’s morning was.
Still, successful week with 4 wins, 1 likely breakeven (today) for total profit of 4.85.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Bullish into tomorrow, so playing for more upside. When SPX at 3668:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 3550/3530 put spreads, delta -.07
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 14th 3785/3805 call spreads, delta +.05
SPX closed for safety
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Oct 13th 3400/3380 put spread for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25. I will let calls expire.
My job looks like it will afford enough access to my computer that I can continue trading semi-regularly, at least until end of November when we begin shooting. The show I am working on is the third season of “Hacks,” produced by NBC/Universal for HBO.
It will mean I will be closing one or both sides for safety more often than I normally do, so I can be risk-off for remainder of day.
CPI higher than expected (hoped)
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September and were up 8.2% from a year ago. Expectation was 0.2% increase.
$SPX set to open at new low for 2022, lowest levels since November 2020.
$VIX doesn’t seem to care much, at least in pre-market.
SPX 1-dte, into the storm
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 13th 3380/3400-3750/3770 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3583, deltas -.03 +.04
Normally wouldn’t sell going into CPI report after last month’s volatile down day, but these strikes are far OTM and low delta, and still providing ample premium.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Closed full condor for .25… now it’s only .10. Perfect day for neutral trader.
CPI report tomorrow
And today we get this preview… Futures were moving higher until this one dropped…
Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected as inflation persists
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 12th 3460/3480-3685/3705 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3587, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte At 11 minutes into trading, sold $SPX Oct 11th 3495/3515-3655/3675 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3583, deltas -.06 +.05.
Don’t forget, September CPI report (inflation) released this Thursday at 8:30am ET
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte At 27 minutes into trading, sold to open $SPX 3545/3565-3690/3710 condors for 1.45. Deltas -.06 +.06
My first day on the new show so depending on my schedule, my trading and posting will be more limited.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped out of put side for 2.60. Let’s pretend today never happened.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Driving in Northern California, managed to listen to CNBC coverage of Jobs Report on TuneIn radio, now stopped at a supercharger so I placed a trade.
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 3610/3630-3800/3820 condors for 1.55. IV 50%, deltas -.07 +.04. I built the trade with +/-.06, but by the time it executed the market spiked down a bit, which is why deltas are off balance.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Oct 6th 3665/3685-3860/3880 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45.
I am traveling back to LA tomorrow to start work on a new show. So no trade now, and not sure if I’ll be around in the morning to place a same-day. Look out for the JOBS report at 8:30am Eastern, 5:30am Pacific.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte … And on the third day, the market rested, and did NOT stop me out of my trade.
Expiring: Oct 5th 3655/3675-3860/3880 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
Sold to open $SPX Oct 6th 3665/3685-3860/3880 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3781, IV 28%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 5th 3655/3675-3860/3880 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3778, IV 28.75%, delta -.06 +.06
Expiring: My 2nd attempt, Oct 4th 3710/3730-3835/3855 condors, sold this morning for 1.70. Loss on day: -.60
Trying Again
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 3710/3730-3835/3855 condors for 1.70, SPX at 3778 at 7:31am Pacific Time. IV 39.7%, deltas -.14 +.05
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Oct 4th (same day) 3615/3635-3790/3810 condors for 1.70, IV 42.3%, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 3rd 3695/3715 call spreads for .90. Sold this morning for 1.45.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd (same day) 3500/3520-3695/3715 condors for 1.45, IV 60.7%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte No new trade…. this plunge in final minutes is a clear enough sign to WAIT until Monday.
Expiring: $SPX Sept 30th 3490/3510-3750/3770 condors, sold yesterday for 1.75.
SPX1dte
#SPX1dte Sold 6 minutes after closing bell: $SPX Sept 30th 3490/3510-3750/3770 condors for 1.75, SPX closed at 3640, IV 40.8%, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Well, my instincts were correct to wait until morning to sell, but in the end made little difference.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 29th 3590/3570 put spreads for 3.40. Condors sold for 1.45 this morning. First loss of the week.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Sept 29th 3570/3590-3775/3795 condors for 1.45, IV 53.6%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte No trade placed this afternoon, will wait for morning
Expired: $SPX Sept 28th 3515/3535-3740/3760 condors, sold for 1.60 yesterday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte My stop was not hit, but I don’t trust this market… BTC $SPX Sept 27th 3590/3570 put spreads for .60. Condors sold this morning for 1.70.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In pre-market, Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3570/3590-3765/3785 condors for 1.70, IV 51.3%, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Sept 27th 3750/3770-3780/3800 condors for 19.15. Bought for 17.80 on Thursday.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Sept 26th 3525/3550-3800/3825 condors, sold Friday for 1.40.
No trade placed for tomorrow due to insufficient premium to get safely OTM. Will consider a same-day trade in the morning.
Downside WARNING FIRED
#VIXindicator A warning fired at the close today with the $VIX over 29.00. The last warning in April took 39 trading days before reaching the market low, about a 15% drop. Before that, this warning was not a great indicator in 2021, with many small drops & short-lived drops. This time, we have been dropping for weeks and it took awhile to finally fire.
Here are recent Downside Warnings for reference:
Fired 4/22/22, at the SPX close of 4,272. The SPX low of 3,637 was 39 trading days later (-14.9%)
Fired 2/11/22, at the SPX close of 4,419. The SPX low of 4,115 was 8 trading days later (-6.9%).
Fired 1/20/22, at the SPX close of 4,483. The SPX low of 4,223 was 2 trading days later (-5.8%).
Fired 11/26/21, at the SPX close of 4,585. The SPX low of 4,495 was 5 trading days later (-2.0%).
Fired 9/20/21, canceled quickly but fired again on 9/28/21, at the SPX close of 4,353. The SPX low of 4,278 was 4 trading days later (-1.7%).
Fired 8/18/21, at the SPX close of 4,427. The SPX low of 4,368 was the next day, so another FALSE warning (-1.3%).
Fired 7/19/21, at the SPX close of 4,258. The SPX low was also that day, so this was a FALSE warning.
Fired 5/11/21, at the SPX close of 4,152. The SPX low was the next day at 4,056, so basically a FALSE warning. It dipped again 5 trading days after that to 4,061, then recovered from there(-2.3%).
Fired 2/25/21, at the SPX close of 3,829. The SPX low of 3,723 was 5 trading days later (-2.8%).
ired 1/27/21, at the SPX close of 3,750. The SPX low of 3,694 was only 2 days later (-1.5%).
Fired 9/3/20, at the SPX close of 3,455. The SPX low of 3,209 was 3 weeks later on Sep 24th (-7.1%).
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 3525/3550-3800/3825 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3691, IV 22.9%, deltas -.05 +.05. These are 25-points wide, as not all strikes available so low on the put side. Also went with 5 deltas rather than usual 6 for a bit more safety.
Week in review:
#SPX5dte one loss: -2.20
#SPX1dte: two losses, three wins: +0.70
Same day Fed trade, Friday revenge trade: 2 wins: +7.00
Total for week: +5.50
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 23rd 3680/3660 put spreads for 5.05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.75.
Another Friday where most of the week’s profit is obliterated. Even though a Downside Warning has not yet fired (it may today), I’m going to need to switch back to same day trades to account for overnight moves. It also is becoming a pattern where a big move (like last Tuesday after CPI and this Wednesday after FOMC) is followed by a quiet day, but then a sharper move will occur a day or two later.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3750/3770-3780/3800 condors for 17.80, with SPX at 3786.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 22nd 3650/3670-3920/3940 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3798, IV 38.8%, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX 2 hour trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 21st 3770/3750 put spreads for 3.40.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte SAME DAY: Sold to open $SPX Sept 21st 3720/3740-3995/4015 condors for 1.60, SPX at 3872, IV 77.4%, deltas -.05 +.04.
IV incredibly high, probably as a result of the huge move we had last Tuesday after inflation report. I felt these strikes were far enough OTM, with lower deltas than I normally sell, to place the trade before Fed announcement.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 20th 3815/3795 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold for 1.50 yeasterday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 20th 3795/3815-3970/3990 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3896, IV 24.5%, deltas -.06 + .06
Expiring: Sept 19th 3740/3760-3965/3985 condors, sold Friday for 1.55
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 3740/3760-3965/3985 for 1.55. Sold 42 minutes before close, when SPX was at 3865, deltas -.06 +.05. SPX closed 8 points higher at 3873, so deltas ended trading at -.04 +.05
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 16th 3800/3780 put spreads for 2.70. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
Another Friday stop to blunt most profit from the week. Last week was flat, but this week I netted 1.40, with 3 wins and 2 losses.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 20th 3895/3915-3925/3945 condors for 17.65, with SPX at 3919.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Sept 15th 3810/3830-4025/4045 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3941, IV 29.8%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Sept 14th 3795/3815-4025/4045 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX 3980/4000-4010/4030 condors for 18.00. Bought last week for 17.75. Tomorrow too unpredictable to hang on for more.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 13th 3985/3970 put spreads for 3.05. Condors sold for 1.50 yesterday.
August CPI
Up 0.1% vs. expected Down 0.1%. Up 8.3% on the year, vs. +8.0% estimate.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 3970/3985-4210/4225 condors for 1.45, SPX at 4105, IV 33.8%, deltas -.06 +.06. This has 15 point wide wings since there is no 4230 available.
Expiring: Sept 12th 3965/3985-4150/4170 condors, sold Friday for 1.25
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 3965/3985-4150/4170 condors for 1.25, IV 14%, deltas -.06 +.05
Options Bistro 