Before the bell… IV at 90%, so I won’t be trading now… will look at opportunities after the report and closer to the open.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX trades
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Wednesday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.
Here is data on last several Upside Warnings.
Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3950/3970-4080/4100 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4026, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 11.3%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 4065/4085 call spreads for .20. Also closing put spreads. I doubt today’s Fed minutes will have much affect, but cannot be certain.
Fed Meeting Minutes today
#FOMC Released at 2pm Eastern… decision on interest rates will be released December 14th.
SPX 1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 23rd 3920/3940-4065/4085 condors for 1.40, SPX at 4000, deltas -.08 +.05. IV 19.5%.
Bullish lean as tomorrow will likely melt upwards slowly.
Expiring: Nov 22nd 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator $VIX closes at 22.36, ending the Downside Warning that started on Sept 22. If we get two more days closing under 22.50, it will mean an Upside Warning. Not surprising as Thanksgiving week is usually mildly bullish. And $SPX was actually down on the day… but volatility dropped steadily.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3950, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.8%
Today’s condor expired worthless.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 21st 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3960, deltas -.07 +.05
Today’s condor expiring worthless.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3820/3840-4010/4030 condors for 1.15, SPX at 3933, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.7%
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 17th 3880/3860 put spreads for 3.50. Filled at 6:14:47, 13 seconds before the 15-minute pause in trading before the opening bell.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 17th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3961, delta -.07 +.06, IV 24.4%
Expiring: Nov 16th 3895/3915-4050/4070 condors, sold this morning for 1.30
SPX same day
#SPX1dte In pre-market, Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 3895/3915-4050/4070 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 37.65%
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close each side of condor for .05 each. Closed risk as I’m on location scouts today and tomorrow. Not placing another trade probably until Wednesday morning.
Missed it by THAT much
#VIXIndicator Almost got the Downside Warning canceled on Friday. Closed $VIX at 22.52, needed 22.49. Next week should tell us whether the near term direction will continue higher or reverse lower.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 14th 3865/3885-4080/4100 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3995, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 17.34%
Expiring: Nov 11th 3865/3885-4040/4060 condors, sold this morning for 1.40.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Nov 11th 3865/3885-4040/4060 condors for 1.40. Deltas -.06 +.06
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Not sure if stop was breached but it was close. Bought to close $SPX Nov 9th 3735/3715 put spreads for .20. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
No trade for tomorrow due to CPI report at 8:30am ET
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3715/3735-3935/3955 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3843, IV 31.3%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 8th 3880/3900 call spreads for .65. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 3715/3735-3880/3900 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3807, deltas -.07 +.05
Expiring: Nov 7th 3655/3675-3850/3870 condors, sold Friday for 1.35
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 3655/3675-3850/3870 condors for 1.35, SPX at 3758, deltas -.07 +.04, IV 16.1%
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 3810/3830 call spreads for .80. Condors sold for 1.35 this morning.
My P/L chart looks like railroad tracks on a candle chart. Here are results of last 4 weeks:
+4.70
-5.85
+7.90
-5.71
The good news is I can identify two mistakes from this week that turned it sour. If it weren’t for my human mistakes, the strategy would be the problem.
I have been tracking paper results if I used a “no stop” strategy, and it officially pulled slightly ahead of my actual gains. Had I gone with no stops since May 16th, my profits would be 11.7% higher.
As it is, my accounts are up an average of 22.3% since May 16th, using ONLY the #SPX1dte and a small amount of #SPX5dte.
Jobs continue to exceed expectations
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 in October, better than the estimate for 205,000.
The unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, while a broader jobless measure also increased, to 6.8%.
Big job gainers by industry included health care, professional and technical services, and leisure and hospitality.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and were up 4.7% from a year ago.
Labor force participation rate declined by one-tenth of a point to 62.2%.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte At 21 minutes after opening bell, sold to open $SPX Nov 4th 3630/3650-3810/3830 condors for 1.35. Deltas -.06 +.06
No trade before Jobs report
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX 3685/3665 put spreads for 3.10. Condors sold for 1.30 yesterday.
In retrospect, it was a bad trade. The market was plummeting into the close, but the IV for today’s option chain was low, and my wings were not far enough OTM. I also sold a few minutes before the close, so the last drop of the day pushed me closer to my put strike. I should have waited until after the closing bell, or even considered a bearish risk/reversal since such a bad drop in the final half-hour usually means we will open next day lower.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 3rd 3665/3685-3880/3900 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3776, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 30%
Watching today’s put spread carefully.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 3960/3980 call spreads for 2.00, SPX at 3885, delta probably about +.10 when filled.
Will consider a put side if we pull back enough.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 1st 3785/3805-3955/3975 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45
Not selling for tomorrow due to Fed announcement on rates at 2pm Eastern. If I’m available, I may place trades after the announcement.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 3785/3805-3955/3975 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3878, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 23.7%
Expiring: Oct 31st 3780/3800-3985/4005 condors, sold Friday for 1.45
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 3915 call for .30. Condors sold for 1.65. Stop hit with first spike above 3902. Monday trade will come in comment.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 16.50. Bought Tuesday for 17.75, so 1.25 loss. Not enough movement and too risky to hold until tomorrow.
1-dte trade to follow in comments.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 27th 3725/3745-3920/3940 condors for 1.60, SPX at 3833, IV 28%, deltas -.07 +.06
Expiring: Oct 26th 3740/3760-3935/3950, sold yesterday for 1.30
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 3740/3760-3935/3950 for 1.30, at 12 minutes after closing bell. Deltas -.07 +.04
This is broken wing, 20 points on puts, 15 on calls, due to limited strikes above 3950. Market moved on me after setting it up and getting filled ($MSFT and $GOOGL earnings), so deltas are skewed.
SPX 5-dte
#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Oct 28th 3825/3845-3855/3875 condors for 17.75. SPX was at 3838, these expire Friday so looking to be out by end of day Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 3685/3710-3900/3925 condors for 1.80, SPX at 3801, IV 30%, deltas -.07 +.05
25-point wide due to limited strikes available above 3900.
SPX 5-dte
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 19.30. Bought for 17.75 on Thursday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 3625/3645-3855/3875 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3753, IV 20%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 21st 3755/3775 call spreads for .90. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 25th 3640/3660-3670/3690 condors for 17.75. First one of these I’ve done in a few weeks because volatility has made them too expensive. Here I’m only going 3 trading days out (Tuesday) so I can keep price under 18.00.
1-dte trades to follow in comments
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 3565/3585-3785/3805 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3687, IV 32.1%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Oct 19th 3600/3620-3770/3790 condors, sold this morning for 1.55.
SPX-1dte
#SPX1dte So much for this Risk/Reversal crap… i thought we’d get more of a rally here, especially with good earnings news. But I’ve been thoroughly bitch-whipsawed this week.
Sold to open $SPX (same day) Oct 19th 3600/3620-3770/3790 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3698, deltas -.06 +.07
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I am still bullish for more move higher. I’m trying a risk/reversal again, placed after the close then immediately helped by $NFLX blowout…
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 3635/3615 put spreads
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 19th 3820/3840 call spreads
Net DEBIT -.40.
SPX risk/reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Definitely late to game but I think we will go higher into close.
Sold $SPX Oct 18th 3675/3655 put spreads
Bought Oct 18th 3815/3835 call spreads
Net CREDIT +.05
Deltas -.07 +.07
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Not a fun thing to wake up to. Earlier, in pre-market, bought to close $SPX Oct 18th 3770/3790 call spreads for 6.00. That’s my biggest hit since June 24th. I really do not know what I was thinking yesterday, since it was an obvious day to play directionally to upside. I will consider a same day trade after the open.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 18th 3565/3585-3770/3790 condors for 1.55, SPX at 3685, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Oct 17th 3575/3595-3740/3760 condors, sold this morning for 1.20 after being stopped out of first one.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 17th 3700/3720 call spreads for 4.20. Condors sold for 1.30 on Friday. Looks like I picked the wrong day for my Risk/Reversal.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 3420/3460-3700/3720 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3595, deltas -.05 +.07
SPX R/R
When you are long one of these spreads, you are faced with decisions all day long (and even all night long with $SPX)… when to exit? With a small profit? Or wait for a bigger one.
Being short is easier.. if stop is hit, GET OUT.
Last night at 9:30pm Pacific I could have taken profits on call spread by selling at 2.50. I instead put in an order for 4.00, thinking we’d edge higher over night. Instead, we dropped. Then after the open, I put in a new sell order for 1.50… the opening spike got me to 1.35, so no fill. Now we have collapsed, and likely profit will be zero. Only hope is whatever volatility just spiked us down will be seen as a buying opportunity like yesterday’s morning was.
Still, successful week with 4 wins, 1 likely breakeven (today) for total profit of 4.85.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Bullish into tomorrow, so playing for more upside. When SPX at 3668:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 3550/3530 put spreads, delta -.07
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 14th 3785/3805 call spreads, delta +.05
SPX closed for safety
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Oct 13th 3400/3380 put spread for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25. I will let calls expire.
My job looks like it will afford enough access to my computer that I can continue trading semi-regularly, at least until end of November when we begin shooting. The show I am working on is the third season of “Hacks,” produced by NBC/Universal for HBO.
It will mean I will be closing one or both sides for safety more often than I normally do, so I can be risk-off for remainder of day.
CPI higher than expected (hoped)
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September and were up 8.2% from a year ago. Expectation was 0.2% increase.
$SPX set to open at new low for 2022, lowest levels since November 2020.
$VIX doesn’t seem to care much, at least in pre-market.
SPX 1-dte, into the storm
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 13th 3380/3400-3750/3770 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3583, deltas -.03 +.04
Normally wouldn’t sell going into CPI report after last month’s volatile down day, but these strikes are far OTM and low delta, and still providing ample premium.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Closed full condor for .25… now it’s only .10. Perfect day for neutral trader.
CPI report tomorrow
And today we get this preview… Futures were moving higher until this one dropped…
Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected as inflation persists
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 12th 3460/3480-3685/3705 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3587, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte At 11 minutes into trading, sold $SPX Oct 11th 3495/3515-3655/3675 condors for 1.30, SPX at 3583, deltas -.06 +.05.
Don’t forget, September CPI report (inflation) released this Thursday at 8:30am ET
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte At 27 minutes into trading, sold to open $SPX 3545/3565-3690/3710 condors for 1.45. Deltas -.06 +.06
My first day on the new show so depending on my schedule, my trading and posting will be more limited.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped out of put side for 2.60. Let’s pretend today never happened.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Driving in Northern California, managed to listen to CNBC coverage of Jobs Report on TuneIn radio, now stopped at a supercharger so I placed a trade.
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 3610/3630-3800/3820 condors for 1.55. IV 50%, deltas -.07 +.04. I built the trade with +/-.06, but by the time it executed the market spiked down a bit, which is why deltas are off balance.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Oct 6th 3665/3685-3860/3880 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45.
I am traveling back to LA tomorrow to start work on a new show. So no trade now, and not sure if I’ll be around in the morning to place a same-day. Look out for the JOBS report at 8:30am Eastern, 5:30am Pacific.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte … And on the third day, the market rested, and did NOT stop me out of my trade.
Expiring: Oct 5th 3655/3675-3860/3880 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
Sold to open $SPX Oct 6th 3665/3685-3860/3880 condors for 1.45, SPX at 3781, IV 28%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 5th 3655/3675-3860/3880 condors for 1.25, SPX at 3778, IV 28.75%, delta -.06 +.06
Expiring: My 2nd attempt, Oct 4th 3710/3730-3835/3855 condors, sold this morning for 1.70. Loss on day: -.60
Trying Again
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 3710/3730-3835/3855 condors for 1.70, SPX at 3778 at 7:31am Pacific Time. IV 39.7%, deltas -.14 +.05
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Oct 4th (same day) 3615/3635-3790/3810 condors for 1.70, IV 42.3%, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 3rd 3695/3715 call spreads for .90. Sold this morning for 1.45.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd (same day) 3500/3520-3695/3715 condors for 1.45, IV 60.7%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte No new trade…. this plunge in final minutes is a clear enough sign to WAIT until Monday.
Expiring: $SPX Sept 30th 3490/3510-3750/3770 condors, sold yesterday for 1.75.
SPX1dte
#SPX1dte Sold 6 minutes after closing bell: $SPX Sept 30th 3490/3510-3750/3770 condors for 1.75, SPX closed at 3640, IV 40.8%, deltas -.05 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Well, my instincts were correct to wait until morning to sell, but in the end made little difference.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 29th 3590/3570 put spreads for 3.40. Condors sold for 1.45 this morning. First loss of the week.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Sept 29th 3570/3590-3775/3795 condors for 1.45, IV 53.6%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte No trade placed this afternoon, will wait for morning
Expired: $SPX Sept 28th 3515/3535-3740/3760 condors, sold for 1.60 yesterday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte My stop was not hit, but I don’t trust this market… BTC $SPX Sept 27th 3590/3570 put spreads for .60. Condors sold this morning for 1.70.
Options Bistro 