Author Archives: Jeff
Econ Calendar 9/8 – 9/12
August Jobs Report
#Jobs — Lower than expected
Gain of +22,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 75K
Unemployment up by 0.1 at 4.3%
U6 unemployment 8.1%, up by 0.2
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.3%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; +3.7% Y/Y
July jobs revised up by +6K to +79K
June jobs revised down by -27K to -13K
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/4/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 4th 6375/6395-6490/6510 condors for 1.05, IV 16.15%, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/3/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 3rd 6405/6435-6440/6470 condors for 14.25, IV 16.20%
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/2/25
#SPX0dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 2 6300/6280 put spreads for .50, IV 25.31%, delta -.05
At midnight PDT the futures started their drop for the beginning of the historically worst month for the stock market. I’m staying away from the selling, taking a cheap shot for a further downside move after the open.
Earnings 9/1 – 9/5
Econ Calendar 9/1 – 9/5
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/29/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 29th 6425/6455-6460/6490 condors for 14.90, IV 19.64%
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/28/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 28th 6415/6435-6525/6545 condors for 1.10, IV 15.70%, deltas -.07 +.07
It has been a well-contained week and this trade would havew worked all three days. So I’m lifting my moratorium.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/27/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 27th 6435/6465=6470/6500 condors for 12.35, IV 13.43%
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/26/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 6405/6435-6440/6470 condors for 12.70, IV 14.07%
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/25/25
#SPX0dte Taking a pause on the pre-market entries for the 6-delta condors. Although this has been my strongest strategy for about 7 years, it hasn’t been consistent for many months now. I will reinstate the normalcy when I feel the market has restored some normalcy. Meantime I will look for tighter condor opportunities after the mornings calm down, and occasional shots with long spreads.
Earnings 8/25 – 8/29
Econ Calendar 8/25 – 8/29
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/22/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 6255/6275-6470/6490 condors for 1.50, IV 34.76%, deltas -.06 +.05
Was considering sitting on hands but this is pretty good width and premium anticipating Powell’s 10am speech.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/21/25
#SPX0dte BOUGHT to open $SPX Aug 21st 6305/6285 put spreads for .55, IV 20.74%, delta -.06
I’m sticking with long trades at least until we get a day or two of muted moves. I’m only bothering with put side today, given we have trickled lower overnight.
I have also been watching for tight condor options later in the trading day, but the swings have kept up in last two afternoons.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/20/25
#SPX0dte Yesterday was a decent drop. $VIX closed higher but made a LOWER high and a lower low than the day before. The internals just not in sync. I’m buying long condor today.
Not fill yet…. I will increase buy price if not filled before the open.
BUYING $SPX Aug 20th 6325/6345-6450/6470 condors, bidding .90, IV 17.10%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/19/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 6390/6410-6480/6500 condors for 1.15, IV 13.13%, deltas -.085 +.065
IV, EM, premium not expecting much today so this condor a bit aggressive.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/18/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 6375/6395-6485/6505 condors for 1.05, IV 15.75%, deltas -.08 +.06
Earnings 8/18 – 8/22
Econ Calendar 8/18 – 8/22
Jackson Hole Summit starts Wednesday, so it will be a week full of yap from a lot of yappers.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/15/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 6400/6420-6520/6540 condors for 1.15, IV 17.87%, deltas -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/14/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 6355/6375-6485/6505 condors for 1.15, IV 19.70%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/13/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 13th 6400/6420-6495/6515 condors for 1.05, IV 14.18%, deltas -.08 +.07
Sharp drop in IV and premium today, so this one is a bit aggressive. Overnight move was bullish but only represents about 20 SPX points which is modest compared to recent weeks.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/12/25
#SPX0dte I’m skipping the wide condor given the large move after CPI report. Until this market returns to some semblance of normality I will be picking my spots more selectively.
CPI 2.7% in July, less than expected
The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2025.html
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/11/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 11th 6315/6335-6435/6455 condors for 1.00, IV 17.11%, deltas -.07 +.06
I’m taking the brief Downside Warning’s end on Friday as a sign the moves will quiet a bit. At least for today. We’ll see if CPI starts to get ugly tomorrow morning.
Earnings 8/11 – 8/15
Econ Calendar 8/11 – 8/15
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/8/25
#SPX0dte BOUGHT to open $SPX Aug 8th 6275/6295-6405/6425 condors for .95, IV 19.26%, deltas -.06 +.07
After 9 straight days of big moves, I feel forced to reverse strategy and try this long on both sides. Over these nine days the pattern has mostly been to start the move about a half hour or more into the day. So I found my strikes at my usual time, about 45 minutes before the open. This time they would gave SOLD for 1.05. I waited until after the open for a cheaper BUY price. So we’ll see if this becomes the 10th day, two full trading weeks, where the SPX moves past the expected move on 6-ish-delta condors. Since I’m now long, it’s probably the day it won’t happen!
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/7/25
#SPX0dte After 8 days straight of Expected Move getting hit, I’m throwing in the towel and getting directional. Although it is downside that was most tested, I think we bottomed on Friday and now will recover to new highs. So I’m trying a bullish #RiskReversal. This condor would have gotten me about 1.10 had I sold both sides.
Sold to open $SPX Aug 7th 6315/6295 puts, delta -.07
Bought to open 6430/6450 calls, delta -.05
Total CREDIT +.20
IV 19.30%
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/6/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 6th 6225/6245-6360/6380 condors for 1.05, IV 19.60%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/5/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 6250/6270-6385/6405 condors for 1.15, IV 19.53%, deltas -.07 +.06
forgot to click “post” but this was placed about 38 minutes before the open.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/4/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 4th 6170/6190-6325/6345 condors for 1.30, IV 23.20%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 8/4 – 8/8
Econ Calendar 8/4 – 8/8
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/1/25
#SPX0dte Sitting on my hands for now. Have been trying to sell call spread on any bounce, but not getting a chance. Missed my fill in pre market. Given this week’s pattern of fading after the open I was not going to sell a put spread today. Upside Warning is canceled. Downside one will take effect with $VIX close over 19.34.
July Jobs Report
#Jobs — Lower than expected and hugely lower prior month revisions
Gain of +73,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 100K
Unemployment up by 0.1 at 4.2%
U6 unemployment 7.9%, up by 0.2
Labor force participation down 0.1 to 62.2%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; +3.9% Y/Y
May jobs revised down by -125K to +19K
June jobs revised down by -133K to +14K
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/31/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 6335/6355-6470/6490 condors for 1.10, IV 19.75%, IB deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 5/30/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 30th 6285/6305-6430/6450 condors for 1.20, IV 21.43%, deltas -.07 +.06
Surprises are not expected from the Fed announcement, but increased IV giving a better width on the condor.
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/29/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 6345/6365-6435/6455 condors for 1.10, IV 13.20%, IB deltas -.09 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/28/25
#SPX0dte #riskreversal
Sold to Open $SPX July 28th 6360/6340 put spreads, delta -.08
Bought to Open 6440/6460 call spreads, delta +.04
Net CREDIT 0.15
IV 13.76%
After five straight positive gains and the potential for a TACO trade as August 1st tariffs loom, I am going for a bullish Risk/Reversal. Additionally, futures have come down 20 points and that lately has meant a rising SPX in trading hours.
Earnings 7/28 – 8/1
Econ Calendar 7/28 – 8/1
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/25/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 6310/6330-6405/6425 condors for 1.05, IV 14.15%, deltas -.09 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/24/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 24th 6290/6310-6395/6415 condors for 1.05, IV 14.80%, IB deltas -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/23/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 23rd 6265/6285-6365/6385 condors for 1.05, IV 14.21%, IB deltas -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/22/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 6240/6260-6345/6365 condors for 1.05, IV 14.90%, deltas from IB: -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/21/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 21st 6265/6285-6325/6345 condors for 3.75, IV 14.22%. Delta reads were completely out of whack on both ToS and IB, so I estimated as distance from ATM. IV is lowest in premarket that I’ve seen all year.
Earnings 7/21 – 7/25
Econ Calendar 7/21 – 7/25
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/18/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 18th 6255/6275-6345/6365 condors for 1.15, IV 17.09%, deltas (IB) -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/17/25
#SPX0dte I’ve thrown in the towel on neutral trades for the week, given the failure of every trade I have tried, the out-sized intraday swings every day, and another big move in the futures this morning. On this spike higher I did buy a put spread. If we get another drop down I will close that and look for something long. Keeping it cheap, however.
BTO $SPX July 17th 6225/6205 put spreads for .50, IV 15.70%, delta estimated -.055
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/16/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open a 20d condor a few minutes after open: July 16th 6210/6230-6280/6300 for 3.95, IV 17.10%, deltas -.20 +.18
After two days of stop outs I held off on pre-market wide condor… probably means this will be a straight-down-the-middle day!
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/15/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX july 15th 6230/6250-6335/6355 condors for 1.10, IV 15.85%, deltas (estimated) -.08 +.06
Inflation picks up again in June, rising 2.7%
The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The numbers were right in line with the Dow Jones consensus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/cpi-inflation-report-june-2025.html
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/14/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 6175/6195-6280/6300 condors for 1.20, IV 16.11%, deltas -.08 +.06
Earnings 7/14 – 7/18
Econ Calendar 7/14 – 7/18
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/11/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 11th 6150/6170-6295/6315 condors for 1.15, IV 21.26%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/10/25
#SPX0dte #RiskReversal
Sold July 10th 6210/6190 put spreads, delta -.09
Bought July 10th 6300/6320 call spreads, delta +.05
IV 16.34%
Total CREDIT +.30
May have missed my chance at this move yesterday, but since we pulled back from highs on futures I don’t want to sell the call side here.
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/9/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 9th 6170/6190-6280/6300 condors for 1.05, IV 16.43%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/8/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 6190/6210-6260/6280 condors for 4.30, IV 17.62%
I skipped the wide condor today as more tariff news likely to come and there have been too many stop outs in recent days. I may look at selling something at extremes, or even buying something if it gets cheap early in the day.
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/7/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 7th 6175/6195-6300/6320 condors for 1.05, IV 19.01%, deltas estimated -.08 +.06
Earnings 7/7 – 7/11
Econ Calendar 7/7 – 7/11
June Jobs Report
#Jobs — Exceeding expectations again
Gain of +147,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 125K
Unemployment down by 0.1 at 4.1%
U6 unemployment 7.7%, down by 0.1
Labor force participation down 0.1 to 62.3%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; +3.7% Y/Y
April jobs revised up by +11K to +158K
May jobs revised up by +5K to +144K
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/3/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 3rd 6170/6190-6270/6290 condors for 1.15, IV 14.72%, deltas -.08 +.07
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/2/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 2nd 6105/6125-6230/6250 condors for 1.15, IV 18.16%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/1/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open July 1st $SPX 6100/6120-6230/6250 condors for 1.10, IV 19.54%, deltas -.06 +.06
Higher IV due to Powell/LaGarde speeches, and lots of data coming after the open. Likely won’t consider another trade until after 10am ET.
SPX 0-dte trades for 6/30/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 30th 6110/6130-6240/6260 condors for 1.05, IV 19.15%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 6/30 – 7/4
Econ Calendar 6/30 – 7/4
SPX 0-dte trades for 6/27/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 27th 6085/6105-6195/6215 condors for .95, IV 16.10%, deltas -.07 +.05
Options Bistro 