Did we reach a low?
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Apr 19th (monthlys) 2825/2850 call spreads for 1.65.
This is a position I originally sold ITM and have been rolling. At the beginning of last week I thought I might get out for zero. Not so much. This time I’m rolling into an inverse condor, with expectation that calls will expire an puts will need to be rolled again.
BTC $SPX March 23rd 2790/2765 put spreads for 23.35. Sold for 22.00 on March 2nd.
STO March 29th 2790/2765 put spreads for 20.25
STO March 29th 2760/2785 put spreads for 3.45
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Betting that we have another warning today:
Sold $SPX Mar 21st 2710/2735 call spreads for 10.50
Rocky road ahead for TSLA?
Goldman: Tesla shares to drop more than 30 percent in the next 6 months on weak Model 3 deliveries https://t.co/q1PaFtPar7
— OptionsBistro.com (@OptionsBistro) March 19, 2018
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$TSLA
SPX trade
#SPXcampaign Earlier, after we breached 2730, BTC $SPX Mar 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for 6.85, and just now covered the 2790 calls for .15. Sold the #CondorRoll for 8.00 last week.
VIX Indicator downside signal
#VIXIndicator we have gone above the trigger of 19.75. If we close above it, it will be a new assertion of the Downside Warning.
Covered Calls
#CoveredCalls #C0veredCallCampaign
BTC $AAPL Mar 29th 187.5 call for .14. Sold for 1.50 on Feb 28th.
STO $SQ Apr 20th 60 call for 1.40.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX April 19th (monthlys) 2580/2555 put spreads for 1.70.
Econ Calendar for week of 3/19/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
FED announcements Wednesday afternoon.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign. Forgot to post earlier: Sold to Open $SPX Apr 13th 2850/2875 call spreads for 1.70
After hours stock trades
Does anyone know how late in the day you can buy/sell stock after hours?
Options Expiration 3/16/18
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #ShortStrangles #SPXcampaign #VXXGame #LongCalls #IronButterfly
— Expiring w/max profit —
$DG 84 puts
$OLED 140 calls
$TIF 109 calls
— Expiring w/max loss —
$SPX 2840/2860 long call spreads, purchased for 1.00 avg price.
$UVXY 91 long calls… purchased for 0.158 avg price… served me well as hedges against short calls
$SQ long 60 calls, bought for 0.964, avg price
— #Assignment —
$SQ 50 long calls, bought for 0.858, avg price. Taking stock (200 shares, cost basis 50.86) and adding it to #CoveredCallCampaign
$AVGO 255 long put – I exited one 265 short put for 9.10. Then, volatility at the close denied my fill on closing more, PLUS, we dropped below my long strike. So, this likely means one spread expired ITM, so a 10.00 debit (against 7.60 sale), but I will likely be assigned short shares based on the ITM long 255 put. Because I feel this may bounce on Monday, I’m buying shares after hours so the assignment will cancel out my position and I’ll be flat. This would amount to about a 2.50 loss overall on the trade.
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More on SVXY
#VXXGame I can only vaguely understand the complexity here. It demonstrates the importance of keeping risk under constant control in these products that we, nor anyone, fully understands.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156919-xiv-svxy-really-happened?auth_param=bf3bv:1dancef:1bc06847ed8b4762c0399a6fda4e3282&uprof=37
DG almost gone
#Earnings BTC $DG March 16th 94 calls for .40 and .30 near the open. Got 1 left, now slightly ITM.
$TIF flirting with my put side, 96.5/109 strangle.
$AVGO looking decent. A 265 pin would be max profit. Closed (1) 265 call for .50.
BABA strangle-roll
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign #StrangleRoll
Stopped: Bought to close $BABA Apr 6th 197.5 covered call for 5.90. Sold for 1.70 on March 2nd.
StrangleRoll: Sold BABA April 20th 190/210 strangle for 7.50.
A fairly aggressive roll, but when I own the stock it boosts my confidence 🙂
AVGO earnings
#Earnings Hasn’t been a huge mover, but can surprise and also has been in the news. So I’m taking a favorable R:R trade:
Sold to Open $AVGO 255/265/275 #IronButterfly for 7.60. Max risk, 2.40. Last quarter its one day move was zero. It opened up then traded down all day to end dead flat. Let’s do that again!
exiting DG
#Earnings BTC (1) $DG March 16th 94 call for .50. Sold 84/94 #ShortStrangles for 1.60 yesterday. Scaling out of the threatened side.
TIF earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $TIF March 16th 96.5/109 #ShortStrangles for 1.05. Biggest UP move: 10.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.7%, Average move: 3.9%. Mt strikes are +6.3% and -5.9% OTM. Slightly bullish lean. Other than the two biggest moves, TIF has not been a big mover on earnings.
Earnings biggies
#Earnings For your consideration, some of our favorites today:
$ADBE, $AVGO, $ULTA, $TIF
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign I’m taking off the Upside Warning for now as the current condition is hard to pin down. We could still be in the larger correction and preparing to test the lows. It seems the tariff issue could be a huge a catalyst now, what with Boeing leading the Dow down today. I think any announced relaxation or elimination of the plan could drive us higher. But if not, sideways to down seems the trend.
Sold to Open $SPX Apr 13th 2600/2575 put spreads for 1.60.
Sold to Open Apr 13th 2870/2895 call spreads for 1.80.
Stopped April 13th 2650/2625 put spreads for 2.85.
#Rolling Sold $SPX April 20th 2595/2570 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size.
SPX indecision
#SPXcampaign With a third day of weakness I have no choice but to switch from bullish to neutral/bearish positioning. The VIX action had been pretty anemic until the significant pop in the last 10 minutes.
Closed $SPX March 16th 2765/2740 put spreads for 8.75. Sold Monday for 4.00.
#CondorRoll: Sold March 21st 2700/2725/2790/2815 condors for 8.00.
Sold April 13th 2600/2575 put spreads for 1.60.
DG earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $DG March 16th 84/94 #ShortStrangles for 1.60. Biggest UP move: 10.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -17.6%, Average move: 5.6%. My strikes are +/-5.6% OTM.
Here are the last 12 earnings; you can see other than one big up move and one big down, it’s not a big mover.
Dec. 7, 2017 BO 2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO 6.54%
March 16, 2017 BO 0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62%
May 26, 2016 BO 4.61%
March 10, 2016 BO 10.66%
Dec. 3, 2015 BO 4.23%
Aug. 27, 2015 BO -3.18%
June 2, 2015 BO 2.98%
March 12, 2015 BO 3.96%
Danger?
#VIXIndicator I don’t know about you, but after what we’ve been through since January, these two little up days on the VIX look like child’s play. I’m sure questioning this “Upside Warning,” but not sensing a lot of fear, despite two weak days.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX March 14th 2775/2750 put spreads for 10.40. Couldn’t risk a further gap down overnight.
OLED roll
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Rolling these to avoid early assignment:
Closed $OLED March 16th 135/140 strangles for 9.00 (closed only puts, will let calls expire). Sold for 12.85 on Feb 23rd.
Sold to Open OLED April 20th 130/140 strangles for 11.80. I got 5 points wider with a 2.80 credit.
Original trade: sold 130 puts for 2.18. Closed for 10.40.
Total credit in trade: 7.43
SPX puts expired
#SPXcampaign #OptionsExpiration
$SPX March 12th 2760/2735 put spreads expired. Sold for 4.85 on Friday.
AAPL covered call
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold to Open $AAPL April 13th 190 call for 1.30.
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KOLD closed
#ContangoETFs BTC $KOLD April 20th 55 call for .10. Sold for 1.40 on Feb 9th.
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign Made these trades before the dip, so not ideal timing, but my $SPX position is now 100% bullish. I would be more comfortable with a lower VIX, so I’m still cautious.
Stopped: closed $SPX Apr 6th 2870/2895 call spreads for 3.50. Sold Friday for 1.75.
#ReverseRoll Sold March 16th 2765/2740 put spreads for 4.00
Upside Warning confirmed
#VIXIndicator After reviewing the data over the weekend, I’ve made an official tweak to the Indicator, which means that the downside warning would have been canceled last Wednesday, and the Upside Warning is now in effect from Friday’s close. This morning’s bullish action was the final element I needed to confirm this change.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Apr 13th 2650/2625 put spreads for 1.60.
Econ Calendar for week of 3/12/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated
Calling an audible
#VIXIndicator. Based on this week’s action I’m going to cancel the Downside Warning. I believe we may also have entered an Upside Warning and I started trading it that way today. This is only a small tweak in the VIX Indicator, since this particular circumstance has only happened once before this week.
Final trades and Options Expiration 3/9/18
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX March 16th 2650/2625 put spreads for .30. Sold for 3.10 on March 7th.
$SPX March 28th 2525/2500 put spreads for .20. Sold as a 1.5x roll for 2.20 on March 1st.
#VXXGame
Sold to close final $VXX long March 9th 40 put for 1.61. Bought for 1.44 on Feb 20th.
BTC $UVXY Apr 20th 26 calls for .44. Sold for 2.00 and 5.30 in early Feb.
BTC UVXY March 16th 16 call for .32. Sold for 1.95 on Feb 27th.
BTC UVXY Jan 2019 70 call for 1.20. Sold in early Feb for 6.50 (avg price) -still holding more.
Bought the following highest strikes, adding to my positions, for protection against future short calls:
April 20th 59 calls for .09
May 18th 40 call for .30
June 15th 60 call for .25
#ContangoETFs
BTC $DRIP April 20th 25 call for .15. Sold for 1.70 on Feb 9th.
#OptionsExpiration
— Expiring —
COST 180/197.5 strangles, sold for 1.55 on Wednesday.
SPX long
#SPXcampaign So I’m still holding $SPX March 16th 2840/2860 call spreads, double-sized position I bought for 1.00 (avg price) back during the correction on 2/12 & 2/14. It’s been dead money for a couple weeks, but if this rally continues next week, may be nice. I’m debating whether to close half today for around 1.50…
But I added another long:
Bought to open March 14th 2810/2830 call spreads for 2.50.
VXX long sold
#VXXGame I took @ramie77‘s idea on this one, but did not close it with profit when he did. On this last day of its life, it’s paying me back a little. Selling one now and seeing if I’ll get more for the other in the next hour.
Sold to close $VXX March 9th 40 put for 1.10. Bought for 1.44 on Feb 20th.
More SPX stops
#SPXcampaign Up 1.5%… face-ripping mode
Stopped $SPX March 23rd 2775/2800 call spreads for 11.50. Sold for 5.25 on March 1st.
Stopped $SPX March 29th 2840/2865 call spreads for 3.60. Sold for 1.60 on March 1st.
I’ve been looking for even the slightest pullback to get longer, but it ain’t coming.
SPX rolls, getting aggressive
#SPXcampaign Stopped: $SPX Apr 6th 2840/2865 call spreads for 3.75. Sold for 1.75 on Monday.
Sold March 12th 2760/2735 put spreads for 4.85. Expire Monday.
Sold March 14th 2775/2750 put spreads for 10.90. Slightly ITM, expire Wednesday.
SPX calls stopped, calls sold
#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX March 15th 2750/2775 for 12.30. Sold for 3.50 on March 1st.
Sold to Open SPX April 6th 2870/2895 call spreads for 1.75.
I need to throw on a few rolls. I will be placing them neural to bearish on the market. If today’s trend stays intact, I’m going to be considering it a provisional upside warning.
VIX Indicator, unprecedented
#VIXIndicator This is pretty tough to explain, but I’ll try anyway…
We are currently in a Downside Warning, but this particular pattern has only happened once before, at least since 1/1/2000, where my tracking begins. The warning was canceled on 2/23, and then, before an Upside Warning fired, it was reinstated on 2/28. When THAT has happened before, the SPX made a new low in all occurrences but 2. In those 2 times, only one time, in 2006, did the second downside correction have a lower 78.6% line.
This time, we did NOT make a new low, and the 78.6% line is down at 12.61. It was at 17.76 from the first warning, so quite a lot lower now. Provided we close decently today, it would be three closes at or below 17.76, which would be an Upside Warning from the FIRST downside warning. In the 2006 occurrence, this did turn out to be an effective Upside Warning, because SPX took off and did not wait for the official upside warning.
If you’re lost, no worries. Here’s all you need to know: There’s not enough precedent to call it one way or the other, but a close today below 17.76 COULD signal a rally back toward all-time highs.
SPX trades yesterday
#SPXcampaign Mostly watched the market bounce, but closed the condor with today’s expiration… thankfully, since the jobs number just drove the market into my call strikes.
Closed $SPX March 9th 2675/2650 put spreads for .20. Sold for 3.55 on Wednesday.
Closed $SPX March 9th 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.60. Sold for 3.80 on March 5th.
Stopped: March 29th 2810/2835 for 2.70. This got up to 3.50 i the morning, but I was able to close it at the lows of the day for ,such cheaper.
February Jobs Report
#jobs Added jobs blow away expectations, but wage growth weak.
+313,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 200K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment steady at 8.2%
Wages up only 0.1%, reflecting 2.6% annualized
Labor force participation up to 63%
Live now
Possible tariff signing
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-trump-expected-to-sign-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum?utm_source=Devices&utm_medium=Notification&utm_campaign=Push+Notification&utm_content=201838-watch-live:
UVXY rotation
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY March 16th 15 call for 2.90, to avoid early assignment. Sold for 1.15 on Jan 16th.
#Rolling STO UVXY Sept 30 call for 3.55.
BTC UVXY March 16th 22 calls for .37. Sold for 3.20 and 4.40 in early Feb.
BTO UVXY APRIL 20th 59 calls for .14, as long hedges against short calls. I have 10 long 91 calls rolling off on next week’s expiration, so I need to replace them.
COST earnings
#Earnings Sold $COST March 9th 180/197.5 strangles for 1.50. Biggest UP move: 3.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.0%, Average move: 2.9%. My strikes are about +/-4.6% OTM.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Selling puts on the morning weakness, as the Gary Cohn news is one of those things that panics investors for about an hour. However, I’m on guard… more news or data could bring us lower… or higher. As I said Monday, this feels like a chop market for the short-term.
Sold $SPX March 9th 2675/2650 put spreads for 3.55.
Sold $SPX March 16th 2650/2625 put spreads for 3.10.
Sold $SPX April 6th 2550/2525 put spreads for 1.95.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Didn’t place any $SPX trades, but this one closed on GTC order:
SPX March 15th 2500/2475 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Feb 15th.
Slow day
Just chop. I made no #SPXcampaign trades. I love the smell of theta decay in the afternoon.
Today in covered calls
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
BTC $AAPL Mar 9th 170 put for .17. Sold for 1.72 on 2/20, in response to a call being stopped.
STO $BABA Apr 13th 205 call for 2.05.
SPX long condor
#SPXcampaign With today’s 52-point range and a fat ATR, it’s much harder to sell short-term spreads because the swings can just crush you in the last hour of the day. So, when I entered this condor with the intent of selling it, I decided to buy it instead when I saw how cheap it was.
Bought to open $SPX March 7th 2640/2665/2775/2800 #LongCondor (1st use of that hashtag) for 1.55.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Seems to me we may be in consolidation for awhile, chopping around. The Downside Warning was canceled, then reinstated, but the second one has NOT produced new low. So I’m going to play the swings as best I can until it stops working. Missed my chance to sell one of these at this morning’s low… had an order ready but it took off on me.
Sold $SPX March 9th 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.80.
FB covered call
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $FB April 6th 190 call for 1.85.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Now the other side of the puts I sold this morning:
Sold to Open $SPX Apr 6th 2840/2865 call spreads for 1.75.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for 1.65.
Econ Calendar for week of 3/5/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
February Jobs report is this Friday, 8:30am ET.
Options Expiration 3/2/18
— Expiring w/max profit —
$AZO 790 calls
$SPLK 84/112 #ShortStrangles
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign My morning sentiment was dead wrong. Just had to stop out on a call roll. Probably not putting any more rolls on as I truly do not know what Monday will bring.
Stopped: $SPX March 5th 2700/2725 call spreads for 5.70. Sold this morning for 3.10.
Also, sold to close LONG March 9th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.90. Bought for 2.60 yesterday.
AZO put closed
#Earnings BTC $AZO March 2nd 660 put for .50, to avoid possible assignment. Sold the strangles for 4.225 on Monday, closed the puts for 1.00 and .50, letting the calls expire.
Covered Calls
#CoveredCalls #coveredcallcampaign
Stopped: $BABA March 16th 177.5 put for 5.85. Sold for 1.35 on 2/21.
#Rolling: Sold BABA April 20th 170 put for 5.60.
Sold BABA Apr 6th 197.5 call for 1.70
Closed on GTC order: $FB Mar 9th 187.5 call for .14. Sold for 1.45 on 2/14.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign With Futures down and a weak open, I rotated some positions out of puts. I may only be talking my book, but I still sense we have lower to go. The chart I posted yesterday shows most of these double-header downside warnings take us down to the previous low (2532) or lower. Yesterday’s low was still 5% above that low.
Sold $SPX March 23rd 2790/2765 put spreads for 22.00. This is the ITM position I originally sold in early Feb. Closed the March 9 roll yesterday and now rolling 2-weeks further.
Stopped Apr 6th 2550/2525 put spreads for 4.30. Sold for 2.00 as a roll on Wednesday.
#ReverseRoll Sold March 5th 2700/2725 call spreads for 3.10, 1.44x position size.
Stopped March 23rd 2525/2500 put spreads for 3.15. Sold for 1.70 on Feb 20th. Cued up some March 29th lower put spreads for a roll. Will fill if we go lower.
Sold March 2nd 2660/2685 call spreads for 8.25. Nail-biter of a day trade.
SPX short
#SPXcampaign #Market I will post trades soon, but I switched more put spreads to calls and I believe we will be going further down today.
The New SVXY: A Comparison
The New SVXY: How Will The Revised ETF Perform Compared To ZIV And To The Old SVXY?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4152553-new-svxy-will-revised-etf-perform-compared-ziv-old-svxy?auth_param=bf3bv:1d9ikf5:969d59d3332385040c89b89bf109e8a1&uprof=37#alt1
SPX trades 2
#SPXcampaign
Sold $SPX March 15th 2750/2775 for 3.50, as a #ReverseRoll from March 23rd puts stopped earlier.
Closed March 2nd 2710/2735 call spreads for 2.80. Sold for 9.20 this morning.
Closed March 16th 2820/2845 call spreads for .65. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 7.85 on Tuesday.
Could be a bounce here, folks.
UVXY call
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY May 18th 25 call for 3.75
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Spent the morning converting the account to be short on $SPX. Took most action before the spike higher, so not ideal entries and exits, but good enough now that were down almost 2%.
In chronological order:
Bought to Open LONG March 9th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.60.
Sold to Open March 29th 2840/2865 call spreads for 1.60.
Closed March 9th 2800/2775 put spreads for 23.00. Sold ITM for 19.70 last Friday. #ITMroll coming
Sold March 2nd 2710/2735 call spreads for 9.20. #ReverseRoll
Closed March 9th 2725/2700 put spreads for 11.05. Sold for 4.05 on Monday. (rolled to spread above)
Sold March 23rd 2775/2800 call spreads for 5.25
Closed March 29th 2610/2585 put spreads for 3.15. Sold for 1.50 on Monday.
Closed March 16th 2695/2670 put spreads for 7.96. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 7.85 on Tuesday.
Sold March 28th 2525/2500 put spreads for 2.20, 1.5x pos size, #Rolling from Mar 29th puts closed above
Stopped: March 23rd 2530/2505 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.60 on Friday. No roll yet.
SPLK earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $SPLK Mar 2nd 84/112 strangles for 1.20. Biggest UP move: 17.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.1%, Average move: 5.9%. My strikes are +19.8% and -10.2% OTM.
Double-header data
#VIXIndicator Below is some data on the previous times this has happened. There was actually once a triple-header, which I missed yesterday. The columns to look at are:
Column D: the number of days between the cancelation and a new Downside Warning. The one we just experienced was only 3 days.
Column N (and Q): this is how much lower we went below the first Warning’s lows. As you can see, all but two occurrences we went lower than the first warning.
Let me know if you have questions!
Double-header
#VIXIndicator Since 2000, what happened today has happened 8 times previously: a Downside Warning going into effect after it had been canceled, with no Upside Warning in between. On half of those occasions, the subsequent drop in the SPX was lower than the first warning, and in the other half, it was roughly the same. So in other words, every occurrence resulted in at least a test of the lows, and half of those times we went significantly lower.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Stopped: $SPX March 29th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.85. Sold yesterday for 1.45.
#Rolling: Sold April 6th 2550/2525 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size.
Stopped: March 2nd 2725/2700 put spreads for 9.60. Sold for 5.20 on Friday.
Downside Warning reinstated at close
#VIXIndicator A rare occurrence so soon after a cancelation.
AAPL covered call
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $AAPL March 29th 187.5 call for 1.50
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Mar 9th 2775/2800 call spreads for 6.25.
AZO closing
#Earnings Just like last May, when this stock dipped over 10% on day 1, it is retracing higher on day 2.
BTC $AZO March 2nd 660 put for 1.00. Sold in 660/790 strangles for 4.225 (avg price) on Monday. I’m putting an order in to close the the other put for .50. Calls I will allow to expire.
