#SPXcampaign So I’m still holding $SPX March 16th 2840/2860 call spreads, double-sized position I bought for 1.00 (avg price) back during the correction on 2/12 & 2/14. It’s been dead money for a couple weeks, but if this rally continues next week, may be nice. I’m debating whether to close half today for around 1.50…
But I added another long:
Bought to open March 14th 2810/2830 call spreads for 2.50.
#VXXGame I took @ramie77‘s idea on this one, but did not close it with profit when he did. On this last day of its life, it’s paying me back a little. Selling one now and seeing if I’ll get more for the other in the next hour.
Sold to close $VXX March 9th 40 put for 1.10. Bought for 1.44 on Feb 20th.
#SPXcampaign Up 1.5%… face-ripping mode
Stopped $SPX March 23rd 2775/2800 call spreads for 11.50. Sold for 5.25 on March 1st.
Stopped $SPX March 29th 2840/2865 call spreads for 3.60. Sold for 1.60 on March 1st.
I’ve been looking for even the slightest pullback to get longer, but it ain’t coming.
#SPXcampaign Stopped: $SPX Apr 6th 2840/2865 call spreads for 3.75. Sold for 1.75 on Monday.
Sold March 12th 2760/2735 put spreads for 4.85. Expire Monday.
Sold March 14th 2775/2750 put spreads for 10.90. Slightly ITM, expire Wednesday.
#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX March 15th 2750/2775 for 12.30. Sold for 3.50 on March 1st.
Sold to Open SPX April 6th 2870/2895 call spreads for 1.75.
I need to throw on a few rolls. I will be placing them neural to bearish on the market. If today’s trend stays intact, I’m going to be considering it a provisional upside warning.
#VIXIndicator This is pretty tough to explain, but I’ll try anyway…
We are currently in a Downside Warning, but this particular pattern has only happened once before, at least since 1/1/2000, where my tracking begins. The warning was canceled on 2/23, and then, before an Upside Warning fired, it was reinstated on 2/28. When THAT has happened before, the SPX made a new low in all occurrences but 2. In those 2 times, only one time, in 2006, did the second downside correction have a lower 78.6% line.
This time, we did NOT make a new low, and the 78.6% line is down at 12.61. It was at 17.76 from the first warning, so quite a lot lower now. Provided we close decently today, it would be three closes at or below 17.76, which would be an Upside Warning from the FIRST downside warning. In the 2006 occurrence, this did turn out to be an effective Upside Warning, because SPX took off and did not wait for the official upside warning.
If you’re lost, no worries. Here’s all you need to know: There’s not enough precedent to call it one way or the other, but a close today below 17.76 COULD signal a rally back toward all-time highs.
#SPXcampaign Mostly watched the market bounce, but closed the condor with today’s expiration… thankfully, since the jobs number just drove the market into my call strikes.
Closed $SPX March 9th 2675/2650 put spreads for .20. Sold for 3.55 on Wednesday.
Closed $SPX March 9th 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.60. Sold for 3.80 on March 5th.
Stopped: March 29th 2810/2835 for 2.70. This got up to 3.50 i the morning, but I was able to close it at the lows of the day for ,such cheaper.
#jobs Added jobs blow away expectations, but wage growth weak.
+313,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 200K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment steady at 8.2%
Wages up only 0.1%, reflecting 2.6% annualized
Labor force participation up to 63%
Possible tariff signing
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-trump-expected-to-sign-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum?utm_source=Devices&utm_medium=Notification&utm_campaign=Push+Notification&utm_content=201838-watch-live:
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY March 16th 15 call for 2.90, to avoid early assignment. Sold for 1.15 on Jan 16th.
#Rolling STO UVXY Sept 30 call for 3.55.
BTC UVXY March 16th 22 calls for .37. Sold for 3.20 and 4.40 in early Feb.
BTO UVXY APRIL 20th 59 calls for .14, as long hedges against short calls. I have 10 long 91 calls rolling off on next week’s expiration, so I need to replace them.
#Earnings Sold $COST March 9th 180/197.5 strangles for 1.50. Biggest UP move: 3.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.0%, Average move: 2.9%. My strikes are about +/-4.6% OTM.
#SPXcampaign Selling puts on the morning weakness, as the Gary Cohn news is one of those things that panics investors for about an hour. However, I’m on guard… more news or data could bring us lower… or higher. As I said Monday, this feels like a chop market for the short-term.
Sold $SPX March 9th 2675/2650 put spreads for 3.55.
Sold $SPX March 16th 2650/2625 put spreads for 3.10.
Sold $SPX April 6th 2550/2525 put spreads for 1.95.
#SPXcampaign Didn’t place any $SPX trades, but this one closed on GTC order:
SPX March 15th 2500/2475 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Feb 15th.
Just chop. I made no #SPXcampaign trades. I love the smell of theta decay in the afternoon.
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
BTC $AAPL Mar 9th 170 put for .17. Sold for 1.72 on 2/20, in response to a call being stopped.
STO $BABA Apr 13th 205 call for 2.05.
#SPXcampaign With today’s 52-point range and a fat ATR, it’s much harder to sell short-term spreads because the swings can just crush you in the last hour of the day. So, when I entered this condor with the intent of selling it, I decided to buy it instead when I saw how cheap it was.
Bought to open $SPX March 7th 2640/2665/2775/2800 #LongCondor (1st use of that hashtag) for 1.55.
#SPXcampaign Seems to me we may be in consolidation for awhile, chopping around. The Downside Warning was canceled, then reinstated, but the second one has NOT produced new low. So I’m going to play the swings as best I can until it stops working. Missed my chance to sell one of these at this morning’s low… had an order ready but it took off on me.
Sold $SPX March 9th 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.80.
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $FB April 6th 190 call for 1.85.
#SPXcampaign Now the other side of the puts I sold this morning:
Sold to Open $SPX Apr 6th 2840/2865 call spreads for 1.75.
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for 1.65.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
February Jobs report is this Friday, 8:30am ET.
— Expiring w/max profit —
$AZO 790 calls
$SPLK 84/112 #ShortStrangles
#SPXcampaign My morning sentiment was dead wrong. Just had to stop out on a call roll. Probably not putting any more rolls on as I truly do not know what Monday will bring.
Stopped: $SPX March 5th 2700/2725 call spreads for 5.70. Sold this morning for 3.10.
Also, sold to close LONG March 9th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.90. Bought for 2.60 yesterday.
#Earnings BTC $AZO March 2nd 660 put for .50, to avoid possible assignment. Sold the strangles for 4.225 on Monday, closed the puts for 1.00 and .50, letting the calls expire.
#CoveredCalls #coveredcallcampaign
Stopped: $BABA March 16th 177.5 put for 5.85. Sold for 1.35 on 2/21.
#Rolling: Sold BABA April 20th 170 put for 5.60.
Sold BABA Apr 6th 197.5 call for 1.70
Closed on GTC order: $FB Mar 9th 187.5 call for .14. Sold for 1.45 on 2/14.
#SPXcampaign With Futures down and a weak open, I rotated some positions out of puts. I may only be talking my book, but I still sense we have lower to go. The chart I posted yesterday shows most of these double-header downside warnings take us down to the previous low (2532) or lower. Yesterday’s low was still 5% above that low.
Sold $SPX March 23rd 2790/2765 put spreads for 22.00. This is the ITM position I originally sold in early Feb. Closed the March 9 roll yesterday and now rolling 2-weeks further.
Stopped Apr 6th 2550/2525 put spreads for 4.30. Sold for 2.00 as a roll on Wednesday.
#ReverseRoll Sold March 5th 2700/2725 call spreads for 3.10, 1.44x position size.
Stopped March 23rd 2525/2500 put spreads for 3.15. Sold for 1.70 on Feb 20th. Cued up some March 29th lower put spreads for a roll. Will fill if we go lower.
Sold March 2nd 2660/2685 call spreads for 8.25. Nail-biter of a day trade.
#SPXcampaign #Market I will post trades soon, but I switched more put spreads to calls and I believe we will be going further down today.
The New SVXY: How Will The Revised ETF Perform Compared To ZIV And To The Old SVXY?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4152553-new-svxy-will-revised-etf-perform-compared-ziv-old-svxy?auth_param=bf3bv:1d9ikf5:969d59d3332385040c89b89bf109e8a1&uprof=37#alt1
#SPXcampaign
Sold $SPX March 15th 2750/2775 for 3.50, as a #ReverseRoll from March 23rd puts stopped earlier.
Closed March 2nd 2710/2735 call spreads for 2.80. Sold for 9.20 this morning.
Closed March 16th 2820/2845 call spreads for .65. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 7.85 on Tuesday.
Could be a bounce here, folks.
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY May 18th 25 call for 3.75
#SPXcampaign Spent the morning converting the account to be short on $SPX. Took most action before the spike higher, so not ideal entries and exits, but good enough now that were down almost 2%.
In chronological order:
Bought to Open LONG March 9th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.60.
Sold to Open March 29th 2840/2865 call spreads for 1.60.
Closed March 9th 2800/2775 put spreads for 23.00. Sold ITM for 19.70 last Friday. #ITMroll coming
Sold March 2nd 2710/2735 call spreads for 9.20. #ReverseRoll
Closed March 9th 2725/2700 put spreads for 11.05. Sold for 4.05 on Monday. (rolled to spread above)
Sold March 23rd 2775/2800 call spreads for 5.25
Closed March 29th 2610/2585 put spreads for 3.15. Sold for 1.50 on Monday.
Closed March 16th 2695/2670 put spreads for 7.96. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 7.85 on Tuesday.
Sold March 28th 2525/2500 put spreads for 2.20, 1.5x pos size, #Rolling from Mar 29th puts closed above
Stopped: March 23rd 2530/2505 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.60 on Friday. No roll yet.
#Earnings Sold to Open $SPLK Mar 2nd 84/112 strangles for 1.20. Biggest UP move: 17.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.1%, Average move: 5.9%. My strikes are +19.8% and -10.2% OTM.
#VIXIndicator Below is some data on the previous times this has happened. There was actually once a triple-header, which I missed yesterday. The columns to look at are:
Column D: the number of days between the cancelation and a new Downside Warning. The one we just experienced was only 3 days.
Column N (and Q): this is how much lower we went below the first Warning’s lows. As you can see, all but two occurrences we went lower than the first warning.
Let me know if you have questions!
#VIXIndicator Since 2000, what happened today has happened 8 times previously: a Downside Warning going into effect after it had been canceled, with no Upside Warning in between. On half of those occasions, the subsequent drop in the SPX was lower than the first warning, and in the other half, it was roughly the same. So in other words, every occurrence resulted in at least a test of the lows, and half of those times we went significantly lower.
#SPXcampaign
Stopped: $SPX March 29th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.85. Sold yesterday for 1.45.
#Rolling: Sold April 6th 2550/2525 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size.
Stopped: March 2nd 2725/2700 put spreads for 9.60. Sold for 5.20 on Friday.
#VIXIndicator A rare occurrence so soon after a cancelation.
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $AAPL March 29th 187.5 call for 1.50
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Mar 9th 2775/2800 call spreads for 6.25.
#Earnings Just like last May, when this stock dipped over 10% on day 1, it is retracing higher on day 2.
BTC $AZO March 2nd 660 put for 1.00. Sold in 660/790 strangles for 4.225 (avg price) on Monday. I’m putting an order in to close the the other put for .50. Calls I will allow to expire.
#SPXcampaign With a second day of weakness I’m looking at call spreads now (after spending Friday and Monday stopping several). I’m offsetting put spreads at the same expiry.
Sold $SPX March 2nd 2775/2800 call spreads for 3.30. Expire this Friday.
#VIXIndicator The clock resets. We need three consecutive closes below 17.76, so Friday is the earliest this may happen. A close above 19.75 tomorrow will mean the Downside Warning is reinstated.
#SPXcampaign In light of the weakness and possible failure of Upside Warning, I stopped nearest put spread and rolled into equal-sized, same date condor. Likely I’ll have to roll one of these sides, but better then waking up tomorrow with a large gap down.
Stopped: $SPX March 16th 2750/2725 put spreads for 8.30. Sold yesterday for 5.80.
#CondorRoll: Sold March 16th 2670/2695/2820/2845 condors for 7.85.
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY June 55 call for .76. Sold for 11.00 on Feb 6th.
STO UVXY March 16th 16 call for 1.95.
Looking more like no Upside Warning today… going to have to roll some put spreads if we creep closer to 2750.
Bad news for those of us holding and hoping with SVXY
#VXXGame Starting tomorrow, $SVXY will be -0.5x and $UVXY will be +1.5x
http://www.tradingvolatility.net/2018/02/svxy-and-uvxy-to-be-re-purposed-feb-28.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TradingVolatility+%28Trading+Volatility%29
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
BTC $BABA March 2nd 202.5 call for .15. Sold for 1.75 on Feb 6th.
Stopped: $AAPL March 16th 180 call for 2.65. The stock breached my strike then immediately offers a nice pullback so I could exit. Sold for 1.70 on Feb 20th.
I will sell new calls on both when we reach new highs.
#SPXcampaign Stopped: $SPX March 15th 2850/2875 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.60 on Feb 15th.
Bought SPX March 7th 2810/2830 call spreads for 3.45. This anticipates an Upside Warning going into effect today, and will profit from the probable strong push higher over the next week.
#ContangoETFs Hitting that sell level again…
Sell $DUST Sept 40 call for 3.10.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 29th 2625/2600 put spreads for 1.65.
Earnings tonight… I didn’t know about the symbol change.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX March 23rd 2860/2885 call spreads for 3.10. Sold for 1.75 last Wednesday.
#ReverseRoll Sold March 16th 2750/2725 put spreads for 5.80.
Signs are pointing to an Upside Warning tomorrow afternoon, but can’t be certain until it happens. VIX is not dropping much today.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX 2845/2870 call spreads for 2.95. Sold Friday for 1.55.
#ReverseRoll Sold March 9th 2725/2700 put spreads for 4.05.
#Earnings Sold $AZO March 2nd 660/790 strangle for 3.95. Biggest UP move: 5.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.8%, Average move: 2.5%. My strikes are +7.2% and -8.7% OTM.
This is a 1-lot. I plan to sell another toward day’s end.
The -11% down move is an outlier from last May. It bounced from there and ended the week down only 6%, and then sunk to new lows a couple weeks later.
#SPXcampaign Determined to sell puts at the open, but I kept having to raise my strikes… this is the bullish action we can expect after a downside warning is cancelled.
Sold $SPX March 29th 2610/2585 put spreads for 1.50. (March 30th is Good Friday and markets will be closed, so final expiration for that week is Thursday the 29th).
#SPXcampaign Closed in pre-market on GTC orders:
$SPX Feb 28th 2675/2650 put spreads for .30. Sold for 3.80 on Wednesday.
$SPX Mar 2nd 2625/2600 put spreads for .30. Sold for 5.75 on Feb 13th.
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
JOBS report will be the SECOND Friday, March 9th.
#OptionsExpiration #SPXcampaign #Earnings #ShortStrangles
— Expiring w/Max Profit —
$SPX 2690/2665 put spreads, sold for 5.45 on Feb 15th
$STMP 150/230 strangles, sold Wednesday for 2.30
— Expiring w/full loss —
$SPX 2425/2400 LONG put spreads, bought for 3.00 and 1.50 on Feb 9 and 12.
#VIXIndicator This is the first day we closed below the VIX Fib 78.6% line. Two more consecutive days will mean an Upside Warning.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Mar 2nd 2725/2700 put spreads for 5.20.
All my recently assigned stock position up: AAPL, BABA, VRTX, FB. And of course, SVXY.
Also, AZO earnings on Tuesday morning…. now with weeklys!
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 23rd 2845/2870 call spreads for 1.55.
#ITMroll Closed March 2nd 2800/2775 put spreads for 23.60. Sold for 23.80 on 2/14.
Sold March 9th 2800/2775 put spreads for 19.70.
Closed on GTC order: March 15th 2400/2375 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Feb 13th.
Stopped Feb 28th 2750/2775 call spreads for 6.50. Sold yesterday for 4.45.
Cancellation of the Downside Warning looking likely. This could mean Upside Warning as early as Tuesday.
This is the time of the day where I post that it looks like we’ll be cancelling the Downside Warning today, but then immediately after that post, S&P drops a bit and the VIX quickly frightens itself higher.
#Earnings #ShortPuts #ShortStrangles #StrangleRoll
Yesterday, sold $OLED Feb 23rd 140 puts for 2.15 and 2.25. In what was clearly an error by the trading Gods, the stock went down rather than up. So I’m rolling into a tight strangle because I know exactly where this stock will be on March 16th.
BTC OLED Feb 23rd 140 puts for 10.40.
STO OLEN March 16th 135/140 strangles for 12.85
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 23rd 2530/2505 put spreads for 1.60.
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
On Wednesday, BTC $BABA March 9th 192.5 call for 5.05. Sold for 1.86 on Feb 12th
Sold BABA March 16th 177.5 put for 1.35
Today: Sold BABA March 23rd 207.5 call for 1.50.
#Earnings Sold $OLED Feb 23rd 140 puts for 2.15. Biggest UP move: 23.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.5%, Average move: 9.6%. Bias: +3.7%. My strike is -9.1% OTM.
Never traded this one before, but it has a nice upside bias. The -11.5% move in Feb 2016 was its biggest ever move down. Last Feb it went up 20%.
I will sell more if stock drops a bit.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 28th 2750/2775 call spreads for 4.45. Offset Feb 28th put spreads sold yesterday.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 28th 2675/2650 put spreads for 3.80.
#Earnings Got put the stock last quarter so was going to skip it, but then saw @fuzzballl‘s trade and couldn’t resist. Going 10-pts lower than he did.
Sold $STMP Feb 23rd 150/230 #ShortStrangles for 2.30.
Biggest UP move: 38.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -22.6%, Average move: 17.1%. My strikes are +23.0% and -19.8% OTM.
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, closed on GTC order:
$SPX Feb 23rd 2775/2800 call spreads for .45. Sold for 5.70 on Feb 6th.
Sold on the post-Fed spike: SPX March 23rd 2860/2885 call spreads for 1.75
Lowest VIX reading since the correction and on track to have Downside Warning canceled today…. UNLESS, we get another round of selling, which might spike VIX right back above 18. 2 hours to go…
#SPXcampaign Heartbreaking… these were trading for 1.50 a couple hours ago… but had to step away and I lost them.
Closed $SPX Feb 20th 2725 puts for 14.60. Sold in the 2700/2725/2765/2790 condor on Friday.
I will get some credit back by selling the 2700 long puts…
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $AAPL March 16th 180 call for 1.70
Sold $AAPL March 9th 170 put for 1.72
Closed on GTC order: $VRTX March 2nd 177.5 covered call for .15. Sold for 1.75 on Feb 6th.
Sold VRTX March 23rd 177.5 call for 1.60
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 23rd 2525/2500 put spreads for 1.70.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated
#OptionsExpiration #VXXGame
Only one #Assignment, my final $SVXY 90 put
#VIXIndicator — The VIX is reacting strongly to the upside at any sign of volatility. Although we spent the morning in cancelation territory, the Mueller spike sent up back above 19.00. So although we’ve been steadily rising, volatility is still hanging around.
