#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 5185/5205-5315/5335 condors for 1.20, IV 22.23%, deltas -.06 +.07
Author Archives: Jeff
CPI comes in lower than expected
Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.
On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations.
Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-april-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-april.html
SPX 0-dte trades 5/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 13th 5145/5165-5265/5285 condors for 1.15, IV 20.62%, deltas -.06 +.06
I decided to hold second half of long May 13th 5260/5280 call spreads through the PPI report. That cost me as we dropped. It’s 5 points below by condor so I will try to sell at an early peak.
SPX 0-dte trades 5/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 13th 5200/5230-5235/5265 condors for 12.40, IV 14.29%.
Economic Calendar 5/13 – 5/17
Starting with this post, I am including only the U.S. items and only “2-bull” and “3-bull” items (ignoring minor items that are rated 1-bull). This is because in recent weeks there have been several 2-bull entries that have caused sharp intraday moves. However, even 3-bull entries for other countries fail to have significant effect. So for the purposes of intraday trading decisions, I hope this is the best use of the Bloomberg website’s calendar. You can find the calendar and make your own filters here: Bloomberg Economic Calendar
Also, you can always find this post quickly by clicking on “Economic Calendar” in the menu at top of this site.
SPX 0-dte trades 5/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 5180/5200-5265/5285 condors for 1.35, IV 15.65%, deltas -.11, +.07
This is much more aggressive than usual. My thinking is we are pretty stretched to upside and that we’ll go higher but not THIS much past all-time highs today. But if we do, my long 5160/5180 call spread for May 14th will be making up for any stop loss for today. As for downside, I don’t see a dip happening today.
I will likely take profits on HALF of the long spread today, currently +4.50 in black. Sure enough, the May 10th spread that I took 1.10 in profit on yesterday is over 4.00 this morning.
SPX 0-dte trades 5/9/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 9th 5155/5185-5190/5220 condors for 13.829, IV 16.03%, at 8:46 ET
SPX 0-dte trades 5/8/24
#SPX0dte No new trade yet but I did pay to close short put side of May 10th #RiskReversal for .30. Not really threatened, but wanted to clear risk so I can enter a new one.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator After three consecutive $VIX closes below the 78.6 Fib retracement line, expect the likelihood of higher market over the coming days or weeks.
SPX 0-dte trades 5/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 7th 5150/5180-5185/5215 condors for 13.45, IV 16.23%, at 8:24 ET
Week-long Risk Reversal
#RiskReversal Taking the lowered $VIX as a sign of a move to new all-time highs. This one is tighter than I usually go on risk reversals, and I’m doing that because the vast majority of these expire worthless on both sides, but usually do result in some move toward the long side and no threat to short side.
Sold to Open May 10th 5050/5030 put spreads, delta -.10
Bought to Open May 10th 5240/5260 call spreads, delta +.07
Total CREDIT +.10
SPX 0-dte trades 5/6/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 6th 5120/5150-5155/5185 condors for 14.40, IV 17.08%, at 8:27 ET
Economic Calendar 5/6 – 5/10
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The $VIX closed below 14.32 on Friday, ending the Downside Warning. Closes like this on Monday and Tuesday will fire an Upside Warning.
Major drop in VIX
#VIXindicator Barring an afternoon volatility spike, looks like Downside Warning will be canceled as the $VIX took a big plunge before the open on the Jobs report. This could put us in an Upside Warning as early as Tuesday’s close.
SPX 0-dte trades 5/3/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 3rd 5030/5050-5180/5200 condors for 1.20, IV 27.50%, deltas -.07 +.05
April Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains slowed in April, rising less than expected, which is good news for the hope of lower interest rates.
Gain of +175,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 240K
Unemployment up 0.1% to 3.9%, vs expectation of unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.4%, up by 0.1%
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%, less than expected; +3.9% Y/Y
February jobs revised down by -34K to +236K
March jobs revised up by +12K to +315K
SPX 0-dte 5/1/24
#SPX0dte Little movement since the open but chain IV has gone from 39% to 56%. Test condors, both wide and tight, have not changed much in value. I will consider trades after press conference starts but likely only take some low risk long shots.
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/30/24
#SPX0dte The “Employment Cost Index” report was listed with two bulls on the Econ calendar from Bloomberg that I use, so it wasn’t something I was expecting to move the market this much. Fortunately I have no trade going yet, and will likely wait until after the 10am Consumer Confidence report. The market continues to overreact to every piece of data that *may* affect the Fed’s decision on when to start cutting rates.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/29/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 29th 5080/5110-5115/5145 condors for 14.80, IV 18.84%, at 8:28 ET
Premium and width on 6-delta too meager, so for this day of lower IV I’m choosing the tight condor option. No major economic data scheduled and big events later in the week should mean a quieter Monday.
Economic Calendar 4/29 – 5/3
FOMC decision on Wednesday and Jobs Report Friday
SPX 0-dte trades 4/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 26th 5000/5020-5135/5155 condors for 1.40, IV 27.55%, deltas -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades 4/25/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 25th 4920/4940-5050/5070 for 1.45 at 9:41 ET, deltas were -.076 +.08, IV 27.09%
Before the GDP and jobs data released at 8:30, I modeled the 6-delta condor for 1.15 with a 120-pt center. Waiting for the open gave me about the same price, although I decided to push the deltas a bit higher for the premium and go for a 110 gap. Expected move is around 30 so stops are currently at 4970 and 5020.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/24/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5050/5080-5085/5115 condors for 16.235, IV 21.15%
Switching to 5-wide ATM strategy as 6-deltas have become to narrow again, and $VIX is calming. Going for 10%
SPX 0-dte trades 4/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 23rd 4940/4960-5070/5090 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 23.38%
SPX 0-dte trades 4/22/24
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 22nd 4905/4925-5050/5070 condors for 1.30, IV 26.35%, deltas -.07 +.06
Economic Calendar 4/22 – 4/26
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/19/24
#SPX0dte So major dip overnight due to Israel/Iran, but now futures are flat. Had I had a sell order in place I may have gotten a fill on my long put spread. Now we are rallying pretty strongly so I’m going to wait for the open to consider a condor.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/18/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 18th 4940/4960-5095/5115 condors for 1.40, IV 28.51%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades 4/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 17th 4970/4990-5135/5155 condors for 1.35, IV 30.1%, deltas -.06 +.06
Risk Reversal
#RiskReversal Taking a shot at a bearish trade and that this turns into a meaningful correction.
Sold to open $SPX Apr 22nd 5230/5250 call spreads, delta +.04
Bought to open Apr 22nd 4855/4835 put spreads, delta -.06
Net DEBIT -.10
SPX 0-dte for 4/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 4955/4975-5140/5160 condors for 1.30, IV 34%, deltas -.05 +.07
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator Fired at the close with $VIX over 50% higher than its recent low of 12.40 on 3/21. Expect the possibilities of lower levels over the coming days or weeks.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/15/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5075/5095-5215/5235 condors for 1.45, IV 26.46%, deltas -.07 +.07
Sticking with wide condors until IV gets lower. Tight condors with 10% exit are still a viable trade, just potentially tougher in high IV/high $VIX environment. If it drops and the swings subside I will resume them, or may add them later in day.
Economic Calendar 4/15 – 4/19
REMINDER: Weekly calendar and Earnings chart are available on the menu at top of the page.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindictor The Upside Warning was canceled today when $VIX intraday spiked above 18.59. We will enter a Downside Warning if we close at these levels.
This was a “secondary” Upside Warning, coming after a previous one with no Downside Warning in between. These are usually weaker, and this one only gave us 30 points of gain for the all-time high on March 28.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/12/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 12th 5140/5170-5175/5195 condors for 19.35, IV 29.07% at 9:49 ET
SPX 7-delta condor
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 12 5060/5080-5225/5245 condors for 1.55, IV 31.87%, deltas -.07 +.07.
I may also add an ATM condor but for now I’m liking the premium and width being offered on my previous 1-dte strategy.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 11th 5130/5160-5165/5195 condors for 19.70, IV 27.98%, at 8:47 ET
CPI higher than expected
The consumer price index increased at a faster than expected pace in March, indicating that inflation is staying stubbornly higher and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates.
The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.
Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2024-consumer-prices-rose-3point5percent-from-a-year-ago-in-march.html
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte I am not trading before CPI, but watching a centered test trade going for 23.85. That’s only 6.15 of risk, which is quite tempting.
I will watch movement and consider a trade if volatility starts dropping and SPX calms down.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/9/24
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 9th 5180/5210-5215/5245 condors for 15.15, IV 16.64%, at 9:28 ET
SPX 0-dte trades 4/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 8th 5175/5205-5210/5240 condors for 16.85, IV 20.35%, at 8:25 ET
Economic Calendar 4/8 – 4/12
CPI report is Wednesday morning
SPX 0-dte trades 4/5/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 5th 5130/5160-5165/5185 condors for 20.35, IV 31.03%, at 9:32 ET.
I watched several spreads in pre-market, but IV nor premium really dropped much between jobs report and the open. So I didn’t feel I would get an advantage entering before the open.
March Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains exceed expectations once again.
Gain of +303,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 214K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 3.8%, as expected
U6 unemployment 7.3%, unchanged
Labor force participation up 0.2% to 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%, as expected; +4.1% Y/Y as expected
February jobs revised down by -5K to +270K
January jobs revised up by +27K to +256K
SPX 0-dte trades 4/4/24
#SPX0dte Another over-reaction to data, this time slight rise in weekly jobless claims. Not sure if I’ll place a trade before the open.
SPX o-dte 4/3/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 3rd 5170/5200-5205/5235 condors for 15.85, IV 18.38%, at 8:41 ET
Powell speaks WEDNESDAY 4/3
Added to the economic calendar is Powell speaking Wednesday at 12:10pm ET
SPX 0-dte 4/2/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 2nd 5190/5220-5225/5245 condors for 14.15, IV 15.43%
Futures trending lower after a day with a decent drop, so this is riskier positioning than last week has been. Also would like to be out by 10a ET to avoid in reaction to JOLT jobs report.
SPX 0-dte 4/1/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 1st 5230/5260-5265/5295 for 12.80, IV 14.78%
Economic Calendar 4/1 – 4/5
ADDED to calendar is Powell speaking WEDNESDAY:
JOBS report Friday morning.
SPX 0-dte 3/28/24
#SPX0dte At 8:38 ET, sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5220/5250-5255/5285 condors for 14.50, IV 17.19%
SPX 0-dte 3/27/24
#SPX0dte At 8:42 ET Sold to Open $SPX Mar 27th 5195/5225-5230/5260 condors for 13.35, IV 14.11%
SPX 0-dte 3/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5205/5235-5240/5270 condors for 12.90, IV 14.08%
20-winged test going for 11.05
SPX 0-dte 3/25/24
#SPX0dte At 8:56 ET, sold to Open $SPX Mar 25th 5200/5230-5235/5265 condors for 14.85, IV 14.45%
Upside Warning reinstated
#VIXindicator This fired at the close today. It comes after the last one was canceled on Feb 13th, but with no Downside Warning in the interim. So it may not be as strong, but don’t be surprised at more movement higher.
Economic Calendar 3/25 – 3/29
Friday holiday so shortened week, but also pretty quiet in terms of data releases.
SPX o-dte 3/22/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 22nd 5210/5240-5245/5275 condors for 13.05, IV 15.67%, at 9:36 ET
Premium was dropping rapidly as I tried to sell this.
SPX 0-dte 3/21/24
#SPX0dte At 9:31 ET, sold to Open $SPX 5220/5250-5255/5285 condors for 14.00, IV 16.41%
Premium on this went from 13.75 at open to now 14.20, even though SPX wasn’t moving dramatically.
20-winged test trade going for 11.85
No SPX trade 3/20/24
#SPX0dte Taking the day off to avoid possible volatility from FOMC rate decision.
I am watching a test position:
Sold $SPX Mar 20th 5140/5170-5175/5205 condors for 21.30, IV 31.70% at 9:39 ET
I want to see how much premium drop we can get before the 2pm event.
SPX 0-dte 3/19/24
#SPX0dte Given the 30-point move in the last 4 hours and also IV at over 20%, I’m going to wait for the open.
SPX 0-dte 3/18/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 18th 5125/5155-5160/5190 condors for 15.60, IV 17.7%
20-winged test trade going for 12.75
Earnings 3/18 – 3/22
Economic Calendar 3/18 – 3/22
#FOMC interest rate decision is Wednesday afternoon
SPX 0-dte 3/15/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5130/5150-5155/5185 condors for 18.00, IV 22%
20-winged test going for 14.00.
SPX 0-dte 3/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 14th 5145/5175-5180/5210 condors for 15.25, IV 18.29%
20-winged test going for 12.40
SPX 0-dte 3/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 13th 5140/5170-5175/5205 condors for 14.65, IV 16.55%
20-winged test going for 11.95.
SPX 0-dte 3/12/24
#SPX0dte At 6:33a, Sold to Open $SPX Mar 12th 5110/5140-5145/5175 condors for 17.40, IV 23.67%
20-winged test trade went for 13.85
CPI for February
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February, as expected, and 3.2% from a year ago, vs expected 3.1%
SPX 0-dte 3/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 11th 5070/5100-5105/5135 condors for 18.80, IV 23.39%
20-winged test at 14.50
This is high IV and high premium for a day with nothing major scheduled. $VIX is up as well. CPI report tomorrow morning.
Economic Calendar 3/11 – 3/15
CPI report on Tuesday morning
SPX 0dte 3/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 8th 5140/5170-5175/5205 condors for 17.35, IV 22.1%
20-point-winged test trade was at 13.65
February Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains exceed expectations again, but UE rises.
Gain of +275,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 198K
Unemployment up 0.2 to 3.9%, vs expected 3.7%
U6 unemployment 7.3%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.1%; 4.3% increase over the year
December jobs revised down by -43K to +290K
January jobs revised down by -124K to 229K
SPX 0-dte 3/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 7th 5095/5125-5130/5160 condors for 16.90, IV 19.87%
20-pt winged test trade selling for 13.40
Options Bistro 