Futures were up, but now negative, so perhaps we’ve reached a consolidation area… but be leery of strong moves in either direction as action has been bullish, but a downside warning is still in effect from Friday. (In my backtesting, the correction low of $SPX can be anywhere between 1 day and 1 month after the first warning). I will look to sell Dec 17th put spreads near the open. Meanwhile, we can search for earnings trades in $ADSK, $FL, $GPS, $INTU, $ROST, $SPLK, $WDAY, $WSM. Trade smart!
Category Archives: General/Announcements
ContangoETFs
I’m prepping a webinar for #ContangoETFs and just built this chart. Thought I’d share it with you since it’s an example of the kind of predictable behavior you can see in ETFs like $DUST, $NUGT, $UVXY, $ZSL, $TZA, $BOIL, $KOLD. Kind of like finding money on the sidewalk…
Good morning…
Up and down yesterday, up today? Check out the great chart Robert posted (prvtrader) last night… we are at resistance on a downtrend line from beginning of November… pressed against it yesterday then failed; we will press it again this morning. I’m picking and choosing $SPX spreads wisely, playing the whipsaw action. I remain watchful for more downside since we are under a Warning from Friday.
It looks like the Bulls…
It looks like the Bulls got a little tired after yesterday’s and this mornings rally…If price moves down tomorrow the Stochastic will give a signal to go short the SPX.
Good morning…
Another day rocketing higher? Looks that way. I have been backtesting the $VIX warning signals, and I have not found a downside warning that triggers without a subsequent correction in the $SPX (I have tested 1999 thru 2011 thus far). Sometimes, the correction may come weeks later, or sometimes it may be only a decent pullback rather than “correction.” But nonetheless, I am staying on watch for more downside in the days and weeks to come after Friday’s Warning.
Signs that we should reset the clock would be either a new $VIX low (below 12.80) or a new $SPX high (2134). Also, a firm break of the recent SPX high (2116) or a close below the most recent base for the VIX warning (Wednesday’s close of 16.05) I believe would mean relative safety. This is a new indicator and our first time working with it in real-time. So every day is an education.
Monthly expiration is this Friday, and it could be playing a role in this rally. Seeing what happens next week will be interesting.
This is what I saw…
This is what I saw today on the SPX; I’ll try to post a chart each day after the close. The idea is to keep a track record of what I see and how I’m trading it.
Adding Avatars
For Contributor/Authors, to add an avatar or photo by your Posts, click on the profile button in upper right (round button with silhouette). Select “My Profile.” (this is also where you can enter profile info and adjust email notifications). Click on the silhouette. This will take you to a separate site, Gravatar, where you can upload a picture. Once finished there it may take several minutes or hours before your photo will appear in OptionsBistro.
The avatars of all contributors can now be found on the right-hand column of this site. —->
By hovering over an avatar, you can see the users name and click through to their profile. I’ve also added new features in this column such as a calendar for search-by-date and a hashtag search cloud.
If you’d like to become a Contributor, please let me know!
Good morning..
Quite a Friday the 13th we had…. we got our $VIX warning signal, and it looked like it could be a repeat of Aug 20-24… however, a significantly more minor one; $SPX was only down 1.12% for the day. Then the Paris attacks instilled fear, but because they happened Friday, with the weekend to digest, it was anyone’s guess what Monday would look like.
For now, we STILL have an active warning from Friday, so be on the lookout. VIX would need to fall at least back below Wednesday’s close of 16.05 before I would say we can ease off the brakes. SPX vol is high so selling new spreads will get you fairly far OTM; just proceed cautiously. Call spreads should be above all-time high of 2135. I will look to sell my normal 5-week out spreads for Dec 17th before I consider putting rolls on from spreads that were stopped last week.
Posting another chart from August….
Posting another chart from August. 
I lost money during that move, because I didn’t pay attention to my indicators. I was trading in “Automatic” since the market had been so kind to me during the consolidation. I should have made a bunch, but missed all the signals.
NFLX
$NFLX breaking below 105, rapidly heading toward the 50 day moving average. Will be interested to see what happens into the close today.
TICK low of the day.
Something is still roiling us intraday… epic battle.
The SPX 2024 level held…so…
The SPX 2024 level held…so now what?
2045-2050 could be the top of the move, if this is just a retracement. It doesn’t have to get there today, but it might. Nevertheless, if it doesn’t get there today, it may do it on Monday; however, there is resistance at 2061 – 2064 which is a double Fib-Node and the retracement could turn back South there.
$VIX Futures
Front 2 months of the futures are in backwardation again. Not sure how much longer it will last but something to note for volatility sellers.
www.vixcentral.com
$SPX new LOD, but…
…TICKs fired huge after bottoming… $RUT near positive on day. That may have been bears’ last breath?
Danger Zone colors…
I’ve changed the background color and included the note in the header… “VIX danger zone entered 11/13.” Since #SPXcampaign is a key strategy followed by multiple members, I’ll alter the site appearance based on different conditions to be aware of.
Second $VIX signal hit – DANGER ZONE
#SPXcampaign…. well, that sounds dramatic. But we hit 20.06, which is 25% above Wednesday’s close of 16.05. That’s the second signal which means we have entered a Danger Zone. Increasing volatility into a Friday is scary, as Monday could be a follow through. Friday the 13th, no less.
Even though we have been ticking up since the lows (and the $RUT is moving up strongly), we should be cautious for more possible downside. This could be a false warning, but those are rare in the backtesting I have done. I recommend you close put spreads if they are anywhere near your stops. If placing any new put spreads today, please make sure they are as far OTM as possible. We are now on warning until $VIX falls back below Wednesday’s close of 16.05.
$VIX warnings for Monday are 25.60 (100% from 10/28 low) and 22.96 (25% up from Thursday’s close).
$SPX will gap down, but…
$SPX will gap down, but not to much… a bigger gap might be a signal of capitulation, leading to a rip higher. A small gap is less telling, so we’ll have to watch. If you have $SPX spreads hitting stops, be patient in getting your exit, or even wait to see what the morning’s direction will be.
Futures are saying we will open at 18.75, so shy of our next two signal points: 19.20 and 20.05. Watch that area, and watch @prvtrader‘s Fib levels on SPX.
$SPX Two possible areas of support…
Two possible areas of support within today’s reach are 2037-2039 and 2017-2024; below that is 2000 and 1967. The first two are agreement areas between Fib Retracements and Extensions.
There is one other support…
There is one other support at 2038 that may hold before getting down to the 2023.
The 38.2% of the move…
The 38.2% of the move from the lows of 9/29 to the highs of 11/3 is at 2023; I won’t be surprised if it comes down to there before the down move is over. The 61.8% is at 1965.2 so be careful.
SPX support at 2055 confluence…
SPX support at 2055 confluence from several Fib-Nodes. It should hold here, if it doesn’t then the next support below it is at 2038 and then 2022 and 2016.
Test Post
Hey gang, It’s Kelly. Making my first post to make sure I’m set up properly
This is a test. Thanks,…
This is a test. Thanks, Jeff.
Test Post 1
Jeff, thanks for inviting me.
Quiet day…
Could be even slower tomorrow on Veteran’s Day.
Welcome to new members coming in today. Feel free to reply to this post if you have any questions about the site or the trades.
SPX campaign PDF now available!
Just click the link at the top of the screen: “SPX Strategy PDF”. Enjoy!
WordPress Mobile Apps
Just thought I’d let everyone know I’ve installed the mobile WordPress app on my Android phone and my iPad. They look and work great!
Options Bistro week 2
Another week, another new look. This one should be more permanent. Now, comments appear under each post without having to click through to them. Also, the name of the Member who posted leads each entry, along with a photo or avatar.
Starting this week, Members besides me will be able to post to this blog. To do so requires an invitation from me and each user to register at wordpress.com. To start, I have invited Ramie, Fuzzball, and Steveo. After we get accustomed to using the site with multiple contributors, I will send out invitations to other followers. Stand by for emails and further announcements. In the meantime, please feel free to post your trades, questions, or comments as replies to any of the posts.
And you can always click ‘Home’ at upper left to list all posts and refresh for new ones.
I will also be announcing this site to additional traders, and posting the PDF of the SPX strategy.
Thanks again for being the first members of Options Bistro!
Options Expiration 11/6/15
Anyone wanting to list their expirations for today can reply to this post with their expirations for today. Have a great weekend, everyone!
One Week In!
Thank you all for being the “beta” group for the first week of OptionsBistro. I am working on several changes you will see by Monday, including a more condensed look to the posts and the ability for users to make entries. There will also be more people, as I will announce the blog to additional groups of traders.
Thanks again, everyone!
WEBINAR Link info – November 5, 2015
Hello, here is the link to today’s webinar! Please reply here if you haven’t yet signed up and would like to attend. There are a couple spots left. OR, if you signed up but now cannot make it, please reply as well.
Jeff Payne is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
Topic: SPX Campaign Webinar
Time: Nov 5, 2015 2:00 PM (GMT-8:00) Pacific Time (US and Canada)
Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS or Android:
A Case For Caution for the Bulls
Morning Plan – Wed Nov 4
FB earnings tonight, so I’ll be looking at potential trades, as well as checking out WFM, FEYE, CELG. Let me know of any earnings plays you’re looking at.
SPX continues its climb. Please obey your call spread stops. If you plan to roll up to a new call spread, be sure to wait for spikes or moves higher. The action remains bullish, so limit your risk. Do NOT follow me on the ITM spreads if you’re not comfortable with them. They can strain your account and your nerves if you are not prepared.
New Look
Good morning. I have designed a new layout for easier use.
- Now, on the left of the screen, you can quickly link to each strategy category.
- Under the categories is a search field which allows you to find posts with any keyword or stock symbol.
- Also on the left, is the “Home” button, which will return you to the entrance page where all posts are visible, with most recent on top.
- Under each post’s title you will see the number of comments, or if there are none, it will read “Leave A Comment,” for quick access.
- NOTE: You’ll need to fill in your name and email for your first comment, but thereafter it should be filled in for you. Email addresses will NOT be displayed to other users.
- THIS WILL CHANGE AGAIN as more contributors are added. Thanks for your patience!
Please reply to this post if you have any feedback or feature suggestions!
WEBINAR – SPX Strategy – Thursday, November 5th, 5p ET
Thanks for following me on the OptionsBistro blog!
I will be holding a webinar this week on the SPX campaign strategy. I started trading it last December and have been developing it while trading it since then. It is turning a decent profit for the year. It took some losses at the end of August, but it also allowed me to develop a “stop trading” signal for downside corrections that I have backtested. Now I have also discovered a similar signal for upside risk, which has caused several call spreads to be closed in October.
I have added these indicators to my presentation, so you are invited to attend a free webinar this Thursday, November 5th, at 5pm ET/2pm PT. I will cover the basics of putting on the trades, and then managing the trades and your portfolio. There’s a lot to cover so it will take about 90 minutes.
There are only 25 spaces so I will accept participants on a first-come, first-served basis. Please reply to this post below if you want to attend, and I will send you a link on Thursday. If you miss this one, there will be future webinars, and I will post the PDF on the blog as well.
Many thanks, hope to see you Thursday!
Options Bistro Launches!
Hello Traders!
Today I launch this blog, Options Bistro. It is meant as a place for options traders to share strategies, ideas, questions, frustrations, and knowledge with each other. I plan for it to eventually grow into a broader site for a community of traders.
I launch at this moment to a grand total of 1 follower (myself). I will be announcing the site once I have posted a few trades, so if you’re reading this, thanks for checking into old posts!
Please contribute… comment or ask questions on my trades and strategies and feel free to post your own ideas or trades.
#Welcome to Options Bistro!
-Jeff Payne
10/30/2013
Options Bistro 