Tracking Rolls

#Rolling #ReverseRoll
I got this question via email: “…with all my rolling of short positions, I’m having a hard time keeping track of each position. I’ve had to roll some positions 4-5 times, and more, especially SVXY, so that my cost basis seems to get lost in all the mess. I currently use an Excel spread sheet that I listed monthly trades, but then I found I had to search for the strike, then enter the roll position, and it just keeps going. Finding each position after a few rolls has been difficult. Any good way that you have found to keep track of the position when you roll, especially numerous rolls?”

I can’t do you much better than Excel, but maybe others can reply with their methods. I track each trade on Excel, and if I roll the position, I will extend that trade’s Excel row to the right, adding and subtracting the costs of each roll into the P/L for that trade… goal is to come out with a profit, or at least breakeven in the end. I can provide more detail if that’s not clear, but it can be a bit confusing with multiple rolls.

Friday trades and Psychology

Couldn’t post these due to my other real job.

#vxxgame:

STO Feb2  UVXY 27 put strike @.40

STO Feb ’16 SVXY 45 call @.60

STO Mar 1 UVXY 23 put @.65

STO Feb2 UVXY 29 put @.65

BTC Jan5 UVXY 82 call @.18-Probably would expire worthless, but nice two day gain and in this market I choose to error on the side of caution and take it when I have the nice gain.

BTC Feb1 25 put @.06

#miners

STO DUST Feb4 12 put @.55  I now have equal calls and puts on both sides for February.

#psychology

I just wanted to comment on what I feel is the most important part of trading and that is psychology.  Hopefully this spurs a continued theme here whereby we can notice certain traits with each other and help with self-coaching in this area as it can make you or break you as a long term and profitable trader.

My 3 main areas I am focusing on as strengths and weaknesses right now:

  1.  Position sizing-Strength – I have made some erroneous trades this last year and what has saved me is my position sizing based on my rules per my account size

Goal-Continue with proper position sizing going forward

2. Discipline-Big Weakness- This is an area whereby I need to really focus my  self-coaching.  I make impulsive direction trades sometimes that are based on “gut” and  not a plan or a setup.

Goal: I’ve started to create a set of daily trading plans using Evernote on my phone (Since most of my trades are via phone due to work) The plan includes If/Than statements same as an Algo would have setup in a trading strategy.

3.  Stop/loss– Moderate weakness- Sometimes I have good stops and sometimes I let it go too far taking a larger loss than I should before an adjustment.

Goal-Write a plan for each month in my #vxxgame  #miners and #/esfutsoptions of what my stops are targets are for each position.

 

Jeff and everyone,

I hope I did not clutter the site too much with this post and want to keep a continued #tag going on various #psychology self-coaching cues and strategies that could benefit everyone.

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

 

OptionsBistro.com – new shortened URL

#Welcome – Hello, all… I’m proud to announce you can now enter simply “optionsbistro.com” (without the wordpress part) to navigate here. And the old way will still work so no need to change your bookmarks.

Also, please become a Member/Contributor if you are not already! Simply reply below or email me any time and I will send you an invitation. You can then make your own Posts and be part of the action.

Thanks all for your involvement and enthusiasm. Much more to come, and I’m always open to suggestions!

Jeff

To calculate the probability of…

To calculate the probability of winning of any vertical spread use the following:
Prob Win% = Max Loss per position / Strike Difference.
So Jeff spread at 1990/2015 is a 25 pt. spread his max loss = 2500 – 125 = 2375.
His prob of Win = 2375/25 = 95%

Stat break

Lowest day on SPX since February 2014 (we have exceeded Oct 2014 correction lows)
VIX hit 150% above Oct 28th low, and at a new high, beating Friday’s high (highest since 9/1/15)
Lowest day ever on USO, which started in 2006
SVXY lowest level since Dec 2012 (when I started #VXXGame!)
In sharp contrast, UVXY was this high only 3 months ago

Contango ETF webinar – TODAY (Wednesday)

Learn about the ETFs that OptionsBistro traders love, like UVXY, NUGT, and KOLD! The products that, by design, are dragged downward over time, giving traders an edge.

If you have not previously replied, this is your chance… there are limited spaces remaining, so the first people to reply to this post will get the remaining slots. If you miss out, look for a recording that will be posted on this site for a limited time starting Thursday.

Thanks!

#Webinars #ContangoETFs

$GDX as Gold Proxy

It is often talked about by traders and others on TV that when they think Gold is going to increase, they will tell people to buy $GDX as the way to do it.  The idea being that the gold miners have a lot of leverage to increases in gold prices and hence will outperform gold.  What we are seeing before our eyes is why that doesn’t work.  Regardless of gold increasing in price, the stocks of the gold miners, are just that, STOCKS.  When the market is selling off, they are selling off everything.  Gold actually had a pretty good day today, up about $15, yet $GDX was down.  It gapped up on the open, likely because the gold futures were up nicely, but then $GDX just sold off all day long.

If you overlay the $GDX on top of $GLD (or /GC) you will see a dramatic under performance of the $GDX vs Gold itself.  I looked out over the past 9 months, 1 year and 3 years.

Lesson, if you think Gold is going to go up because of what is happening to the currencies, or you want to use it as protection during the high volatility we are in, buy $GLD (or $IAU) and forget about playing it through the miners.

#contangoetfs

UVXY & SVXY

I’ve gotten some questions about these and the way some of us sell them. I’ll give some answers here, and then I encourage anyone to ask further questions so the group can answer. Also, those experienced with trading these, please add to this post with your comments…

These both are based on $VXX, which is the “VIX Short-Term Futures ETN” that tracks $VIX futures contracts. It is infected by contango under normal market conditions, meaning over the long term it is always headed down (I will cover this phenomenon in next week’s webinar). But during volatile markets, in can have dramatic spikes up.

The $UVXY is an ETF that seeks to return 2x the VXX move on a DAILY basis. Because UVXY is two-times the VXX, the downward pressure over time is greater in UVXY than VXX, but the up spikes can be much larger.

The $SVXY is the 1x inverse of the VXX. The inverse aspect would indicate a general uptrend overtime, however, over the last 16 months, the SVXY has been under performing and can be slow in reaching new highs.

Most traders here predominantly SELL volatility when the VIX and VXX spike higher, and thus profit when volatility settles down. The most common methods are to sell UVXY calls and sell SVXY puts. Some also sell VXX calls, or sell spreads. But most of us sell these naked. All of us have reaped very strong profits from this strategy over the last 4 to 5 years. The difficult part is when we get into a correction and many positions sold on initial vol spikes go underwater. You need to control your position size and roll options when necessary so your account does not blow up during these times. ALSO, you must be leery if we are entering a bear market. None of these products existed in 2008, so no one really knows how they will perform in another financial crash or an extended downtrend. Personally, I have been more cautious lately with these products for this reason.

What works for me best is to sell near term way OTM strikes that are very unlikely to get hit. Last week I was selling UVXY Jan 100 to 125 calls for .30 or so each. As you can see, since then UVXY has only moved from 30 to 50. Also, I sell highest strikes at the furthest expiration dates, like Jan 2017 and 2018. These will return pretty high premium, but will deflate dramatically when volatility relaxes. Many traders will add strikes from all expirations, including weekly, and at multiple strikes.

We also will take assignment of SVXY stock, sometimes UVXY stock, and sell covered calls until stock is called away. Some of us will hold these positions through large drawdowns, knowing the volatility event will eventually end. I do not recommend that unless you have ice in your veins. We also sell naked PUTS in UVXY, especially in times like now when rallies like yesterday are usually followed by more volatility. Check out the long list of expirations that will be posted at the end of the day, and you’ll get an idea of some of the positions that are being traded.

Hope this helps! The traders here are all very helpful and can answer further questions. – Jeff

Good morning…

Although I thought we might remain calmer until next week, our trip down to October 2014 lows (1820) is resuming now. I don’t think we can look for any meaningful bounce until at least that level.

#ironbutterfly Here is some info…

#ironbutterfly Here is some info on butterfly and broken wing butterfly options
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2016-01-14/episodes/mike-and-his-white-board-01-14-2016?locale=en-US

ETF Webinar – January 20, 2016

A new webinar next week for what I call #ContangoETFs; the bull and bear 2x and 3x ETFs and ETNs that always head toward zero; how they work, and how to keep an edge in trading them. It will be Wednesday, January 20 at 5pm ET, 2pm PT. Limited spaces available; reply below this post if you’d like to attend.

#Webinars

Managing options positions through max Payne

I made a presentation last night to a local Options Trading group about #ContangoETFs, and I included the recent $KOLD trade through the swing from 90 to 220, where many of us held ITM naked calls on the whole ride up. I shared @fuzzballl‘s tactics of selling ITM puts, and of selling the long leg of a way-ITM spread while it was riding high. One member said you need to have “ice in your veins” to handle these types of trades without panic.

It is true that the way many of us trade UVXY and other naked options is not for everyone. I stressed last night and I stress again now, you must know the products you’re trading and you MUST control position size so your account can handle worst case scenarios.

For new members or followers to Bistro, be sure to ask any of the traders here any questions about their positions. This is a good group, always willing to offer advice. I learned much of what I do from many of these people, including @optioniceman who first taught me the tricks to selling naked premium.

(And if you want to see some of the KOLD trading, use search box in the right column and enter the term “KOLD”)

New followers…

Welcome to Options Bistro! You can view the site and make comments immediately, but you’ll find some features (including mobile) easier if you set up a WordPress account. Easy to to at their website… click this link to set up a username-only account: https://signup.wordpress.com/signup/?user=1.

#Welcome

OptionsBistro available on mobile phones or tablets…

Just add the WordPress app to your mobile device! #Welcome

wordpress app

Good Morning… Bad News this…

Good Morning…
Bad News this morning (if you’re long)
Markets are in turmoil.
Chinese stocks close just 29 minutes after open
China’s stock exchanges closed for the day at 9:59 a.m. local time after the CSI 300 Index fell more than 7 percent. The selloff was sparked after the central bank cuts its yuan reference rate by the most since August. China’s foreign reserves dropped by a record $108 billion in December as its defense of the yuan becomes more costly.

European stocks follow China’s lead
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid as much as 3.6 percent, the most since August, before trading 3.2 percent lower at 10:40 a.m. in London. Germany’s DAX Index is trading below 10,000 for the first time since October. In the U.K., mining stocks have been hardest hit with Anglo American PLC down more than 10 percent. The pound dropped to a five-year low.

U.S. futures point to ugly open
Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 2.2 percent to 1,938 as of 10:50 a.m. in London. U.S. markets closed lower yesterday following the release of the Fed minutes from the December meeting which provided little clarity on the rate-path. Market indicators show the chances of a Fed rate rise by April have dropped to 43 percent today, from 52 percent on Tuesday. U.S. treasuries continued their longest advance since 2014.

Oil plunges to 2003 low
U.S. oil futures in New York slid to the lowest in 12 years with West Texas Intermediate dropping as much as 5.5 percent before trading down 2.5 percent at $33.12 a barrel at 11:13 a.m. London time. Volatility in the oil market may increase today as tensions in the Middle East rise following Iran’s accusation that Saudi Arabia was responsible for a missile attack on its embassy in Yemen. Industrial metals are also suffering today, with copper on the London Metal Exchange dropping 1.2 percent to $4,565 a metric ton, while nickel slumped 2 percent and zinc declined 2.2 percent. Gold is the only bright spot, trading above $1100 an ounce earlier this morning.

Good morning…

Well, not like we didn’t expect it. Don’t panic like the guy in the cartoon… protect your capital, take opportunities when you can. I’m looking for a big spike in the VIX to consider any neutral or bullish trades; even with Wednesday’s sell-off, VIX was relatively quiet. It has not yet signaled panic, but it has given plenty of downside warning. Once the panic comes, volatility will be driven to higher levels and VXX products will be primed for selling. SPX spreads will be possible in 1600’s or lower.

Managing iron condors and strangles…

Managing iron condors and strangles
Tasty Trade research from Dec. 30-data showing it’s wise to close them early, don’t wait for expiration. The discussion starts just before the 7 minute mark.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2015-12-29/episodes/iron-condors-varying-profit-targets-12-29-2015?locale=en-US

$NFLX – it’s not a…

$NFLX – it’s not a sign of strength when NFLX is down a fraction when the DJIA is up 180 points

Quadruple Witching could add to Volatility

The exceptionally large Open Interest in options expiring this week could increase volatility on Friday and move stocks lower. It could also move them higher, but given where Futures are before the open, down seems to be the new black. As our VIX Indicator is currently under FOUR warnings (see side bar on the right), the risk is to the Downside.

The massive expiration was explained further on Fast Money last night: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/a-massive-expiration-has-traders-on-edge.html

#futures

SPX after hours trading

For those that don’t know, you can trade $SPX options from 3am to 9:15am ET weekday mornings, and also from 4p to 4:15p after the market closes. You may need to contact your broker to set up this ability.

What I wasn’t sure about was Monthly expiration options, which stop trading at Thursday’s close but whose settlement price is set after Friday’s open. I just confirmed you CAN trade these until 4:15pm on Thursdays (I closed a 1-lot 1975/1950 put spread that expires in the morning for .10 at 4:05pm)

#SPXcampaign

The reason DUST won’t go up

I’ve been working on a Webinar for #ContangoETFs and with the discussion below on $DUST, wanted to pass along part of what I’m preparing. When you have a levered ETF, they are designed to track the DAILY move of the underlying, multiplied by 2 or 3. So if $GDX is up 1% on the day, $NUGT will be up 3% and $DUST down 3%. But then it resets next day. This creates a compound tracking error that will NOT track the underlying beyond a one-day period. In fact, it will drag both the positive & negative levered ETFs down. Here’s an example:

Let’s say the underlying and long and short 2x ETFs all start at $100. We then watch price action as the underlying swings back and forth 10%:

Day 1: underlying up 10% = 110.00
Long 2x up 20% = 120.00
Short 2x down 20% = 80.00

Day 2: underlying down 10% = 99.00
Long 2x down 20% = 96.00
Short 2x up 20% = 96.00

Day 3: underlying up 10% = 108.90
Long 2x up 20% = 115.20
Short 2x down 20% = 76.80

Day 4: underlying down 10% = 98.01
Long 2x down 20% = 92.16
Short 2x up 20% = 92.16

As you can see, with equal up and down days repeated, the underlying moves down slowly but the 2x ETFs go more quickly. Repeat this way for 6 months and both ETFs would be worth only $2.54.

So GDX has been bearish since its 2011 highs… NUGT has absolutely collapsed as a result of this compounding, but DUST has stayed relatively flat for the same reason.

Interesting, huh? That’s why these “ContangoETFs” all work… even if you don’t have the actual “contango” from futures roll, you get this compounding tracking error dragging them all down.

Follow OptionsBistro and learn more!

Site updates and expansion

On the right hand column of this page I have enhanced the VIX indicator Status to make current condition more clear. I will update this each day.

I am working on more changes, and I welcome any feedback on something I can include to he more helpful for everyone’s daily trading. Also, if there are any features you would like to contribute, let me know.

Also, I am always looking for additional followers and contributors. Feel free to invite anyone you know, and offer me any suggestions on ways to promote the site.

Thanks all for being here!

#Welcome

#Markets – Interesting reading this…

#Markets – Interesting reading this morning on ZH. While the S&P 500 closed the day higher by nearly a half of a percent, there were just 810 Advancing Issues on the NYSE vs. 2326 Declining Issues. As a percentage of the total, the Advancing Issues equated to just 25.8% of issues. If that sounds low, you are correct. Going back to 1965, it is in fact the 3rd lowest percentage of Advancing stocks of ANY day that the S&P 500 closed higher. In other words, out of 6,702 Up days since 1965, yesterday ranked 6,699th in terms of breadth.

Good morning…

Fed day… if they act today, it will be the first day in history that we have a rate raise AFTER quantitative easing. In other words, no one knows what the reaction will be. I’ll be looking for possible day trades with $SVXY and $UVXY, and maybe $SPY or $TLT. I will consider short term #SPXcampaign spreads, but more likely hold off until the market settles into its direction in the coming days.

Does anyone’s broker have shares…

Does anyone’s broker have shares of DGAZ to short? Much more liquid than KOLD. Would rather short it than buy UGAZ because of the wicked decay.

Adding Your Picture or Avatar when you post…

For Contributor/Authors, to add an avatar or photo by your Posts, click on the profile button in upper right (round button with silhouette). Select “My Profile.” (this is also where you can enter profile info and adjust email notifications). Click on the silhouette. This will take you to a separate site, Gravatar, where you can upload a picture. Once finished there it may take several minutes or hours before your photo will appear in OptionsBistro.

The avatars of all contributors can now be found on the right-hand column of this site. —->

By hovering over an avatar, you can see the users name and click through to their profile. I’ve also added new features in this column such as a calendar for search-by-date and a hashtag search cloud.

If you’d like to become a Contributor, please let me know!

#AddYourAvatar #Welcome

Good morning…

All hinges on the Fed… many traders are sticking to short term as know one knows how that market will react to tomorrow’s announcement on rates. We have just been through a 5.2% decline (from 12/2 high to yesterday’s low)… is that the extent of the “correction” the $VIX has been signaling? A rally this week into monthly expiration seems feasible, but then what? I am avoiding new index trades until we see how things shake out, and looking for shorter term or ETF opportunities.

$VIX Indicator

Once initial warnings fire, secondary signals are less significant, but still signal likelihood of a correction. Friday saw a signal and we just touched above 25.60, which is 100% higher than the Oct 28 $VIX low. So that’s the fourth warning since Nov 13th.

Good morning…

I will be picking any entries sparingly and carefully before the FOMC decision. The downside risk is evident, but whichever decision they announce on Wednesday could send markets screaming higher, at least briefly. As for the #SPXcampaign, I was stopped out of put spreads and closed several call spreads Friday, and for now will be easing off on the normal weekly entries in the face of unpredictable volatility.

VIX signal fired

#VIXIndicator We are already under a triple $VIX Warning, but another signal just fired, as 24.18 is 25% above yesterday’s close. The Downside risk is increasing (duh).

Bistro emails

If you would prefer to receive fewer emails from Bistro, just go to any one of the emails and click “Manage Subscriptions.” There you can choose to receive an email with a daily or weekly recap, rather than for every post.

#Welcome

Good morning…

Futures dumped overnight, but a pretty decent retail sales report was just released. Wage growth and consumer spending on the rise. It all may not matter, however, as we have multiple VIX warnings piling up, and everyone is hanging on the Fed decision next week.

I have been studying the VIX indicator, and since 1999 there have never been three Warnings before a full correction occurs. I believe the only reason we are not much lower in the indices is because of the impending Fed decision. I am on the lookout for declines… when they start is harder to call.

$UVXY $SVXY – things may…

$UVXY $SVXY – things may settle down by the open, but I just saw UVXY above 34 (up 11%) and SVXY below 50.
Should be a fun day

stock index futures indicated a…

stock index futures indicated a broadly lower open on Friday as traders looked towards the release of a set of data that will provide one last look at the mood of consumers before Federal Reserve officials meet next week to consider the first rate hike in nine years.

Dow futures briefly fell about 150 points — and held about 130 points lower — ahead of the release of some key data points.

Retail sales and PPI are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with business inventories and consumer sentiment scheduled for release at 10:00 a.m.

Scott Redler @RedDogT3 Art Cashin…

Scott Redler @RedDogT3
Art Cashin says this is the toughest market he’s seen in 50 years. And he’s one of the best in the business

$VIX Downside Warning fired again

#VIXIndicator Third time since 11/13.

VIX signal fired

$VIX just hit 19.20, which is 50% above the October 28th low of 12.80. If we hit 19.80, that will be 25% above Tuesday’s close, which will be a second signal and yet another Downside Warning.

#SPXcampaign

SPX fail, VIX Indicator

Wow, had to step out briefly…. not only did I miss call spread fill, I missed my stop on the put spread. What a bad morning to have to step away!
Next $VIX Indicator signals are 19.20, then 19.80.

Good morning…

Well, perhaps the $VIX warning we got Friday will come to fruition before January. More volatility today as oil continues to plunge. At some point we should reach a capitulation point where oil has a rapid, massive sell off and then finally bottoms. For now, it seems to be dragging stocks down with it.

$SPX second test of 2067…

$SPX second test of 2067 area held for now, printing a higher low on the day.

Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) announces…

Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) announces it will be acquired by privately-owned JAB Holding Company for $92 per share in a deal valued at $13.9B. JAB Holding is an experienced collector of large consumer product brands.

GMCR stakeholder Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) says it backs the buyout and indicates it will work with JAB to stay on as a major Keurig single-serve partner.

The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2016.

GMCR closed at $51.70 on Friday. Shares are currently on a trading halt, but will soon skyrocket.

Damn!!!

VIX, VXX – http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-current-vix-etp-landscape.html

VIX, VXX – http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-current-vix-etp-landscape.html

VIX warnings

Today’s strength seems to indicate that the immediate downside danger is over. However, since these $VIX warnings fired twice within a month, it is likely there is some pain coming. These signals often can come weeks or months before a correction. With December often being a lighter, bullish month, be careful with your January positions as I would imagine more volatility is waiting until then.

#SPXcampaign

With this jump today in…

With this jump today in SPX we are still in a down trend
so far just an inside day

Crude oil…no cut in production…oil…

Crude oil…no cut in production…oil pricing under $40 could be downer for market

Jobs…

211,000 added in November, unemployment 5.0%. Probably gives Fed go-ahead to raise in December.

Good morning…

#VIXIndicator Yesterday The $VIX indicator developed for the #SPXcampaign fired a Downside Warning. This was due to a 25% rise over Tuesday’s close, and also a 50% rise from the latest VIX low on 10/28. This happened on Nov 13th as well, but then retraced back down as $SPX rallied. These are the first times since the indicator was developed that we have traded through it in real time. In backtesting, the Warning usually was followed by a correction, but sometimes it would be several weeks later. Today, we have the jobs report which could rally the market and nullify the signal, or it could lead to further downside. Watch your stops, protect your capital, take opportunities when they appear.

$VIX Downside Warning enacted.

Be careful with holding spreads overnight and over weekend that are close to stops.
The non-farm payrolls in the morning could add to further volatility, or also cause a large bounce.

VIX signal fired

The $VIX surpassed 18.34, which is 25% above Tuesday’s close. This is one of two signals we need to fire a Downside Warning on the #SPXcampaign. Next signal would be 19.20.

Additionally, this is the second time we’ve had signals fire since the VIX low on 10/28. A Warning did go into effect on 11/6, but since VIX retraced significantly that warning was nullified. However, because VIX has not reached a new low, we can consider any signals now slightly more urgent.

Sinking…

$VIX just peaked 2 cents shy of a downside signal, 18.34 is 25% above Tuesday’s close. $SPX hitting support level at 2050. May get a bounce here but no telling whether we go lower today or tomorrow.

This is yesterday’s 15 min…

120215 SPX for Tomorrow
This is yesterday’s 15 min chart with today’s support and resistance levels on it. Those levels are normally not apparent on the daily charts, but sometimes, those levels hold the SPX or at least act as points where the price consolidate for a while.

Is this down move a…

Is this down move a reaction to Fed?

Senate panel accused drug company…

Senate panel accused drug company Gilead of they knew many patients can not afford it but went ahead priced it at $1000/tab. and they don’t care about patients with hepatitis C. This is what I am afraid of that some drug companies CEOs will destroy other good drug companies by their exaggerated greed

RUT back down to almost…

RUT back down to almost flat on day

GM all

GM all

All cylinders

Well, I did sell a same-week condor yesterday, but missed a fill on a Dec 31st put spread… thought I’d get a chance this morning, but no beans… Indices off and running… sell some call spreads if you need them!

#SPXcampaign

Short options, Margin, and retirement accounts

I got this question over the weekend:

Question:
What type of account are you trading in when you short naked? Regular margin/Portfolio margin account? Trying to find out what the more experienced folks setup when the run the types of strategies you use and not get killed on the tax side, but have all the strategies open to me unlike an IRA style acct.

Answer:
I use two different account types. My main account is an LLC account with portfolio margin… it is set up as a business partnership with family members. There are no restrictions on the types of trades. I also trade with 401K accounts… these are retirement accounts sponsored by the LLC for the members of the LLC (who are technically employees). Each member, including myself, rolled over portions of IRA accounts into these 401K’s. At Interactive Brokers, 401K accounts do not have restrictions against naked options. They are Reg-T accounts, so margin requirements for shorts are higher than portfolio margin. I typically sell naked options in my LLC account and stick to spreads in the 401K accounts (almost exclusively the #SPXcampaign, which is tailor made for retirement accounts).

For the short strategies such as #Earnings and #ContangoETFs, you will need to use spreads if you want to trade in an IRA. I usually don’t use spreads, but some other contributors on OptionsBistro do, such as @fuzzballl, who uses a mix of naked and spreads.

Let me know if I can help further!

#Yellin this week FYI Speed…

#Yellin this week
FYI Speed bumps…Chairwoman speaks on Wed at 8:30 and 12:25, then testifies on Thurs at 10:00 same time ISM non-manufacturing PMI comes out…mark your calendar.

CNBC Now @CNBCnow BREAKING: Pending…

CNBC Now @CNBCnow
BREAKING: Pending home sales up 0.2% vs. up 1.5% est.

Good morning…

Heavy week of data and reports, including nonfarm payroll on Friday. For #SPXcampaign this week I will be selling spreads in the Dec 31st expiration.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Have a great holiday, and thanks to everyone who has made OptionsBistro a success in its first month!

Have a good holiday to…

Have a good holiday to all

This is today’s chart showing…

112515 Daily Chart at 11AM
This is today’s chart showing the Active Fib-Nodes and LOPs for this week. According to what the chart is showing the SPX should at least reach the XOP next week

Baking vs. Trading

Slow day in the markets, so this is what I’m up to… making pumpkin pie from scratch! pies

Quite Day

Quiet Day

#FOMC

Reminder that the next fed decision I believe is scheduled for Dec 16, 2 days before Dec monthly expiration.  I currently have not opened any #VXX related positions for Dec 24 or Dec 31 expirations.  I plan to hold off until we get close to the Fed meeting.

I expect that volatility could get elevated prior to the meeting, then just about a coin toss as to what the market will do in response.

KBIO…crazy

New CEO seems pretty shady. Wonder how much he made on this deal. Incredible…

Make sure you are viewing OptionsBistro properly!

Some people may be viewing this website through a WordPress blog reader, where you can see Posts but you won’t see all of the features available on the full site. If you do not see the colored background, with a photo or cartoon with the words “Options Bistro” at the upper right of this page, you are NOT viewing the full site. To do so, type OptionsBistro.wordpress.com directly into your browser. Then, save that as a bookmark for future easy access. If you are an Author (contributor), you will need to make sure you are logged in to WordPress each day before navigating to the site. Fell free to comment below or email me if you need help or have questions! My email is jpayne.rdb@gmail.com

Also, as always, if you’d like to be able to make your own posts, please comment below or email me so I can send you an invitation.

Thanks! Jeff

#Welcome

GM

GM

Good morning, 11/23/15

Probably a pretty quiet holiday week, which is great for theta decay and one and a half fewer days before weekly expiration this Friday, when markets close early after a full day off. I will be sell Dec 24th credit spreads in the #SPXcampaign. The $GME #Earnings trade looks to be in $2 worth of trouble to start the week… I’ve actually been here before with GME… it usually is a quick trade but one time I took the stock and waited a few weeks with covered calls before turning a good profit. It may take its time to recover but it always has. Have a great week, everyone!

CMG dump

What happened to $CMG? Dumped 50 points in last couple hours, down 10% on day.

AMBA – No position yet…

AMBA – 12 day squeeze firing long today. I guess GPRO isn’t that big of a customer after all! I’ve been watching this one for awhile. Love those little red TOS dots.

Good morning, Expiration Friday 11/20…

Bulls are in charge… $VIX should drop below 16.05 today, which was the level from which our last signal fired (11/11 close, from which we spiked 25% last Friday). This is an indication that the 11/13 warning is more likely a false alarm. Given this, I think we can lower the threat level. Next levels to watch on $SPX would be the most recent peak around 2015, then all-time highs at 2034. A break through either could mean the bulls drive us into year-end. Meantime, #Earnings plays in $FL, $ZOES, and $WSM look solid, and $SPLK iron fly will probably maintain at least a small profit.

There is a green small…

There is a green small window in the lower right side corner saying following with a check mark on it, can you please let me know what it means? is it someone following me from this group? and how do I know who is following me?

Wed’s Chart….sorry I couldn’t post…

Wed 11-18-15
Wed’s Chart….sorry I couldn’t post it last night.