#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46% July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57% July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Avg (+ or -) 5.75%
Bias 0.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 435.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 385.03 to 484.97 (+/- 11.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 409.98 to 460.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 376.10 to 493.90
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 390.33
CCL STO 4/24/20 13.0 CALL@.30 To complete a #covered call strangle, 12.0 Put, 12.37 Stock.
AAL STO 5/1/20 10.0 PUTS @.63
AAL STO 5/1/20 10.5 PUTS @.78 Sorry I did these AAL trades, earnings this Friday. We will see.
Bought 100 HPE / Sold 1 HPE 04/24/2020 9.50 Covered Call @ 8.97 Net debit..
Earnings and the next dividend(5%) are not for a while. I’ll add more on further weakness.
#shortputs#coveredcalls USO HAL VIAC BOOT
USO bought 100 shares and sold April 24, 3 call for 2.78 Thanks Fuzzball
USO sold May 15, 2 put for .54 #tastytradefollow
HAL sold 2 April 24, 7.5 covered calls for .47 each
VIAC sold April 24, 15 covered call for .57
BOOT sold May 15, 12.50 put for .97
#CoveredCalls – Off it’s lows but it was halted for a little while this morning so still a lot of uncertainty. I’m rolling down the calls into next week for max downside protection while maintaining a profit if called away. There might be a possibility of rolling these but it would be tough at these prices especially if the stock rallies much.
Rolled USO APR 24 2020 3.5 Calls to MAY 1 2020 2.5 Calls @ .90 credit
#SPX1dte The bullish slant didn’t come through but got to keep the credit.
$SPX April 20th long call spread and short put spread expired, put on Friday for .55 credit.
And another idea borrowed from TastyTrade.
Sold $XLE 6/19 jade lizard (sold 28 puts + 36.21/37.21 bear call spread) for 2.10 credit. No upside risk (1.10 capped profit above 37.21) and downside breakeven of 25.90.
#CoveredCalls – Low risk lottery ticket. Iceman style…buying covered stock with call ITM. Either make a little in a week or own stock considerably lower.
Bought USO stock and sold APR 24 2020 3.5 Calls @ 3.27 debit.
AA 6 coveredcall
AAL 10 covered call called away
AAL 11 covered call called away
APA 10 covered call
BOOT 10 short put
BOOT 15 covered call
BOOT 15 put assigned
CAR 8 short put
CCL 7.5 short put
CCL 10 covered call called away
CCL 11.50 covered call called away
CPRI 12 covered call called away
FEYE 11.50 covered call
GPRO 2.50 short put
GPS 5.50 short put
GPS 8 short put
GUSH 1 put ns
HAL 8 covered call
HBI 8 covered call called away
HTZ 4 short put
LB short 13 put
LUV short 25 put
MRO 3.5 covered call called away
MRO 4 short put
NBL 7.5 covered call called away
NKTR 17 short put
NKTR 25 covered call
NTGR 21 short put
NUGT 11.50 covered call
OXY 16 covered call
SPY 230/250 long put spread full loss!
T 29.50 covered call called away
UBER 29 covered call
USO 7 covered call
VFC 60 covered call
#SPX1dte. Given the clearly bullish fervor that has gripped Wall Street, however irrational, I’m selling a more aggressive put spread and buying a call spread, all for a net credit.
Sold $SPX Apr 20th 2775/2755 put spreads
Bought $SPX Apr 20th 2790/2900 call spreads
Total credit: 0.55
IV 24%, SPX 2872, deltas: -.10, +.05
Expiring today: Apr 20th 2655/2675-2895/2915 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20
Bought to close 1 SLB 04/17/2020 17.50 Put / Sold 1 SLB 05/15/2020 17.50 Put @ 0.52 Credit.
SLB cut the quarterly dividend by 75% to $0.125 per share as part of the move to conserve cash and protect its balance sheet. The payout is set for July 9 to shareholders of record on June 3, according to Schlumberger.
Bought to close VIAC 04/17/2020 18.00 Calls @ 0.01. Sold these on 04/07 @ 0.18.
Sold VIAC 04/24/2020 17.0 Covered Calls @ 0.32 with the stock at 15.50.
BEN – I wasn’t going to keep this but…
Between the great entry yesterday, the 7% dividend yield, and the good additional premium I rolled the call.
Bought to close BEN 04/17/2020 15.0 Covered Call / Sold BEN 05/15/2020 15.0 Covered Call @ 0.70 Credit.
The additional premium drops my net cost to 14.09 which is below the YTD low
Bought to close RCL 04/17/2020 33.0 Call / Sold RCL 04/24/2020 34.0 Call @ 1.18 Credit + 1.00 better strike.
This stock is so volatile, it could be 20 or 50 by next Friday
In the past month Dexcom (DXCM) has risen from $190 to over $300. Great news for the stock…..not so good for the APR 17 $260 call. It is discouraging when a stock goes on a huge run and you sold an “at the money” stock option before the rise. The example below is real. $50,505 gain from buying 500 stock on Mar 3 at $206.99. I sold Apr 17 $200 Calls when I bought the stock. The calls have been “rolled up” twice from $200 to $230 and then to $260. Rolling up required an additional $20,728 investment. Instead of a $50,505 gain on the stock the net gain is now $19,180, 40% of what it could have been.
But here is the good news. In 29 days the CC strategy is returning 19.1%. Annualized 241%. Rather than be remorse about the money I missed…..very happy with the potential return so far.
Today is decision day as the Apr 17 $260 calls expire.
Alternatives are:
Do nothing. Let the options expire and take profit of $19,810.
2. Roll the options out (buy back Apr 17 $260 Call and sell May 15 $260 Call). Rolling the call out generates a credit of $8 per share or $4,000 (Buy back Apr 17 $260 Call for $49 ($24,500) and sell May 15 $260 for $57 ($28,500).
3. Roll the options out and up (buy back Apr 17 $260 Call for $49/share and sell May 15 $305 Call for $29/share. Rolling the call out and up requires an investment of $9,500 (500 shares x $49 = ($24,500) – 500 shares X $29 ($14,500). Rolling up and out increases the strike price from $260 to $300 ($40 a share upside).
On the surface alternative #3 looks like the best idea. The “wild card” is an earnings announcement in early May. Historically Dexcom has shown high volatility around earnings. Stock can go up or down by 10%. Many medical device companies are announcing Q1 earnings and pulling their financial projections for the rest of 2020 until they understand how Covid-19 will impact them.
The downside of adding more Dexcom investment is further portfolio concentration. Dexcom now represents $156K of $236K (66%) of the portfolio. Not a good situation if things were to go wrong.
Likely action…..allow at least 1 Apr $260 Call to be “assigned” and sell 100 shares of stock. Roll the remaining 4 Apr $260 Calls up and out….but not all the way to $305. Probably sell $280 or $290 to offer some protection over the earnings call. This takes some of the profit off the table and helps with the portfolio %. Income tax implications are important….but this is long enough.
Bought BEN / Sold 04/17/2020 15.00 Covered Call @ 14.79 Net Debit with the stock @ 15.17.
A new 5-year low was set today @ 14.91 and the Div yield is about 7%
Bought to close OXY 04/17/2020 17.50 Covered Call @ 0.01. Sold on Monday @ 0.60.
Sold OXY 04/24/2020 17.00 Covered Call @ 0.15.
Bought to close OXY 04/17/2020 18.00 Covered Call @ 0.01. Sold on Monday @ 0.47.
Sold OXY 04/24/2020 18.00 Covered Call @ 0.14
Plus on 4/15 I got the $79 dividend on my 1st buy of OXY. Future quarterly dividend rates are down to 0.11.
#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 23, 2020 AC -4.19%
Oct. 17, 2019 AC +6.96%
July 18, 2019 AC -1.45% April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86% April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Avg (+ or -) 4.37%
Bias -0.22%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 510.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.03 to 535.97 (+/- 5.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 487.28 to 532.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 468.33 to 551.67
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 474.30
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 5/1 110 calls and STO 5/15 120 calls at $2 debit. Stock at 126.52
$PLAN BTC 4/17 30 calls and STO 6/19 40 calls at $3.70 debit. Stock at 35.60
Bought to close PNC 04/17/2020 96.00 Covered Call / Sold PNC 05/15/2020 97.00 Covered Call @ 0.87 Credit + 1.00 better strike.
I also will get the 1.15 quarterly dividend at the end of the month.
#Earnings#JadeLizards – A big enough pullback is not looking likely saw hitting the eject button with beer money. Hey that’s 2 cases of Silver Bullets if I catch it on sale!
Bought to Close GS APR 17 2020 165.0/175.0/177.5 Jade Lizards @ 2.40 (sold for 2.55)
Occidental to Pay Warren Buffett’s Berkshire a Stock Premium to Conserve Cash
In an effort to conserve cash at a time of ultralow oil prices, Occidental Petroleum is paying the dividend on Berkshire Hathaway’s $10 billion preferred stock stake in common shares and not in cash, according to a filing early Wednesday.
Occidental (ticker: OXY) will issue 17,274,130 shares to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire (BRK.A), a move that will be nearly 2% dilutive. Occidental is effectively paying Berkshire a premium to save $200 million in cash.
(Note: Berkshire immediately sold that stock dividend and turned it into $CASH – I guess it’s too early to bottom fish)
On March 23, Gov. Gavin Newsom made a dramatic announcement: Tesla founder Elon Musk was donating over 1,000 ventilators to California.
It seemed like miraculous news at a moment when the state was desperately searching for ventilators to help save critical coronavirus patients. But was it true?
Newsom’s office now says Musk was supposed to deliver the ventilators directly to hospitals. So far, however, the governor’s office says no California hospital has received them.
Good return on the strategy so far…..but it would have been better to just buy the shares. Shares dropped after establishing the CC and I rolled down for credit. When stock came back with strong momentum I have been too conservative selling at the money calls. Should have sold out of the money calls but volatility made me conservative. Can’t complain about the rate of return….EW is a stock I would like to keep.
Options Bistro 