Bought to close $LABU 8/21 45 puts @ .55. Sold for 1.80 on 7/28. Thanks @fuzzballl!
Recent Updates Page 190
EWZ
KODK
EWZ Roll: I’m following along w/ @winstonthink ‘s ITM strangle leap w/ weekly straddle sales. I think you guys are calling these #diagonalbutterfly ‘s I’m rolling the weekly straddles at 50% profit.
Core Strangle Leap: Jan 2022 27 call/37 put @ $16.72. Max risk on a 1-lot is $672
Straddle 1 Aug 7 32’s sold at $1.40, covered at $.70 ($70)
Straddle 2 Aug 14 32’s sold at 1.60 covered at $.80 ($80)
Straddle 3 Aug 21 31.5’s sold at 1.50 today
Once $672 profit is realized on the straddles I will add a 2nd leap strangle. My objective is to get to a ratio sell situation where there is always more net long contracts than short, for a beneficial long vega position where all risk has been covered.
KODK….ugh rookie rookie here!
At about $35 I placed a ratio put spread/combo fly at 25/30 for 5.65 cr and a 15/10/7.5 put BWB fly for 1.25 debit. This gave me a breakeven of about 10.68. And a max loss of $5K on stock assignment with stock going to zero. Subsequently I closed the put debit component of the put ratio (30/25) for 4.85 taking 97% of available max profit.
I added a Sep 15/17.5 ATM (at the time) Call Credit spread for .88, and also added a DITM put Sep 20-strike. At this point it surely looks like a stock assignment is inevitable, so it’s about collecting as much as I can until then to lower the cost basis. These things can reverse on news, so trying to collect cash but not dig too big a hole on a reversal. This will be the classic Option Bistro game–that so many of you have mastered— to patiently and persistently work the basis. What a management team disaster on this. Queue the lawsuits!
TSLA
#ShortStrangles – It’s a long way from this new strike especially with the split boost behind it. Rolling up for more credit but still 2x outside the expected move…
Rolled TSLA SEP 18 2020 700.0 Put to SEP 18 2020 1000.0 Put @ 5.55 credit
Now 1000/2900 strangle @ 12.10
AMAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 14, 2020 AC -4.39%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC +3.05%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
Avg (+ or -) 4.16%
Bias -0.46%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 62.49 to 69.51 (+/- 5.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 63.25 to 68.75
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 60.09 to 71.91
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 60.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 18, 2020 AC +2.00%
Feb. 27, 2020 AC +0.05%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC +13.51% Biggest UP
Aug. 19, 2019 AC +4.31%
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45%
Avg (+ or -) 6.51%
Bias 0.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.84 to 134.16 (+/- 7.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 116.86 to 133.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 104.36 to 145.64
Based on UP max only (+13.5%): 141.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte (or maybe 6-dte)
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 19th 3350/3370-3380/3400 condors for 15.80, with SPX at 3378.
Is VIAC a good candidate for covered call writing?
We liked the potential VIAC represented (believe the idea came from Coveredcalladvisor.com)
- Weekly options
- Great dividend
- History of stock growth
- Good option premiums
We opened a CC position on Jun 4 with the goal of capturing the $.24 dividend (Jun 12) and the option premium. Stock quickly jumped up in price and then fell back below what we paid (blue line in chart below). After the stock price fell and our Jun 19 $24 call expired at $0 we didn’t sell additional options hoping for stock price to rebound. On Jul 14 we started selling calls again. We have done calendar rolls at the $25 strike price each Friday.
In 70 days the position has generated profits of $5,050, 21.3% or 111% annualized. Very pleased with the return on this quality stock. I think it is a great CC candidate. Plans are to continue to roll the calls and capture the upcoming dividend in Sep.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 12th 3390/3410 call spreads for .25. Not risking the small chance of a volatile close. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
Not buying a #SPX7dteLong today… going to buy it in the morning, which seems to save me about a buck in price.
Expiring: Aug 12th 3350/3350 call spreads for 20.00 max credit. Condors bought last Thursday morning for 15.80.
ATVI
$ATVI Bounced nicely near the 50 day moving average, at the bottom of its trading range. Sold 9/18 75 puts @ 1.42 (23 delta) with the stock at 81.53.
A TRADE:
CC STO 8/14/20 22.0 PUTS @.63 Trying to acquire stock cheaper.
NTES earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 19, 2020 AC -1.35%
Feb. 26, 2020 AC -6.91%
Nov. 20, 2019 AC +2.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26% Biggest UP
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -1.37%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 473.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 445.25 to 500.75 (+/- 5.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 441.15 to 504.85
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 421.16 to 524.84
Based on UP max only (+10.3%): 521.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
PLUG
#BullPutSpreads – Thanks @Jeff for pointing this one out. Might be a fun one to play with…pretty low risk selling ITM spreads. I’ll manage it similar to an earnings spread when I sell those ITM. If the stock tanks one covered call sale will get that back.
Sold PLUG SEP 18 2020 12.0/10.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 1.30
TRADES:
CODX STO 8/14/20 22.5 CALLS @1.00
CODX STO 8/14/20 20.0 CALLS @1.45
KODK STO 8/14/20 11.0 CALLS @.42 An add.
LULU
LRCX – Unbalanced Condor
LRCX @ $376
BTO 1 x LRCX Aug 21: $375 /$370 long PUT Vertical @ $ 2.60 debit
STO 2 x LRCX Aug 21: $360 / $355 short PUT Vertical @ $1.27 credit (x 2)
Total debit of $0.05 for the unbalanced Condor. Downside breakeven is around $358. No risk to the upside (just the $0.05 cost of the trade).
If LRCX starts imploding then throw on a long PUT diagonal (e.g. -1 Aug 21 $355 / +1 Aug 28 $355) at around $2, which drops the downside breakeven to $346.
Risk/Reward extremely enticing.
LABU
Sold 9/4 40 puts @ 1.75
#ShortPuts
PLUG play
#Speculation This one is waking up after a long dormancy and Cramer was talking it up this morning.
Bought to Open $PLUG Jan 2021 20 calls for .80, when stock dipped to 10.11.
A TRADE:
KODK STO 8/14/20 11.0 CALL @.55
#fallingknife OSTK STO 18 Sep…
#fallingknife
OSTK
STO 18 Sep Bups
75/70 for 2.05
#closing LULU XOM LULU Aug….
#closing LULU XOM
LULU Aug. 5, sold Aug. 21, 365/375 call spread for 1.23, bought today for .70, thanks Ramie
XOM Aug. 4, sold Aug. 21, 41 put for .72, bought today for .13
NFLX
STO September 25, 400/600 strangle at 6.02
TSLA
Peak Insanity: Tesla Adds $16 Billion In Market Cap After Announcing 5-For-1 Stock Split
Tesla stock has added almost half of GM’s market cap after hours on the news of the stock split.
Taking one for the team
TQQQ, STO September 25, 90 put at 4.05
Closing SHOP
Bought to close $SHOP 8/21 1120/1140 bear call spread @ 1.00. Sold for 5.00 on 7/29.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 3225/3245-3390/3410 condors for 1.30, IV 19.8%, SPX 3338, deltas: -.07,+.07
SPX 1 DTE
#spx1dte
$SPX STO 8/12 3240/3260/3420/3400 at 1.05
VXX
Sold VXX 08/14/2020 31.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.15.
Sold against long Sep 38 and 40 calls.
Sold VXX 08/14/2020 32.00 Diagonal Calls @ 0.16.
Sold against long Oct 48 and 51 calls.
Getting back 15% of the cost of my longs.
Converting some short diagonal put spreads to “Short Calendar Iron Condor Spreads”
TRADES:
CC BTO STOCK @21.45
CC STO 8/14/20 ITM 22.0 PUTS @1.05
CC STO 8/21/20 ITM 21.5 PUTS @1.03
SWKS STC STOCK @143.56 Not doing badly, just got tired while stock was making up its mind what to do. ;>)
VXX
Bought to open 1 VXX 11/20/2020 65.0 Call @ 0.94.
Preparing for election fireworks.
VIAC ADS
Sold VIAC 08/14/2020 28.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.35
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 55.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.25
#DoubleDip
VXX KSS AAL WFC Diagonals
Bought VXX 01/21/2022 5.0 Puts / Sold VXX 08/14/2020 25.0 Puts @ 0.37 Credit
Bought KSS 10/16/2020 30.0 Calls / Sold KSS 08/14/2020 23.0 Calls @ 0.13 Credit
Bought AAL 10/16/2020 25.0 Calls / Sold AAL 08/14/2020 15.0 Calls @ 0.12 Credit
Bought WFC 09/25/2020 30.0 Calls / Sold WFC 08/14/2020 26.0 Calls @ 0.04 Credit
XLF vs. FAS
XLF @ $25.70
BTO XLF Jan 2022 15 PUT / 30 CALL long strangle @ $ 1.56 to be financed by the selling of weekly straddles/strangles:
STO XLF Aug 21 $25 short straddle @ $1.02
FAS @ $39.93
BTO FAS Jan 2022 20 PUT / 70 CALL long strangle @ $ 10.28
STO FAS Aug 21 $40 short straddle @ $3.34
It’s kind of like an alternative Pairs trade – I’m pitting XLF against FAS (the 3X long financial ETF). Whichever one is easier to manage in relation to the returns that can be had gets more funds. The other gets cut loose.
Based on the opening trades either I have gone mad or the market makers have gone crazy (and I know the MMs never go crazy!). That relative premium between the core position and the short term sales is outrageous.
TRADES:
AAL STO 8/14/20 15.0 CALLS @.36
PLAY STO 8/21/201 7.5 CALLS @.55
VIAC STO 8/21/20 26.0 PUTS @.46
VIAC STO 8/21/20 27.0 PUTS @.81 To own the stock
CC STO 8/14/20 21.0 PUTS @.67
T
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close T AUG 21 2020 28.5 Puts @ .04 (sold for .52)
SPY
#ShortPuts – Taking a little risk off. Sold this on the bounce off the 20ma and now approaching 100 percent retrace from covid low. I’ll take it here…
Bought to Close SPY SEP 18 2020 285.0 Put @ 1.02 (sold for 3.55)
TQQQ Puts Closed / TDOC LVGO Puts / MRNA Calls
#shortputs
$TQQQ BTC 8/14 80 put at .05. STO 7/28 at 1.10. Thank you @jsd501
$TDOC STO 9/4 165 put at 4.30 Thank you @fuzzballl
$LVGO STO 9/4 100 put at 2.00. Just what the @fuzzballl ordered.
#coveredcalls
$MRNA STO 8/14 75 calls at 1.05
Markets
Why is it still rising?
Earnings Season Shocker: FAAMG Earnings Grew By 2% While EPS For The Other 495 S&P Companies Plunged 38%.
Meanwhile the carnage among small caps was unprecedented with Russell 2000 EPS plunging by 97%.
“Goldman, which over the weekend turned incrementally more bullish on the economy and hiked its GDP forecast as it now expects that a covid vaccine will be discovered and widely distributed in Q1 2021, resulting in what Goldman believes will be a sharp jump in consumption in the first half of next year (whether that actually happens in a country where more than half refuse to get vaccinated is a different story completely), has done a post-mortem on Q2 earnings season and also found some more “good news.”
First, after expecting a 60% plunge in EPS in Q2, Goldman’s David Kostin was delighted to report that S&P 500 EPS declined by “only” 34% year/year, well above both consensus expectations for a -45% decline, and Goldman’s own forecast of a nearly double drop.”
KLAC
#IronCondor – Sold KLAC SEP 18 2020 230 / 220 – 175 /165 Iron Condor @ $3.78. KLAC currently trading @ $203.
TDOC
STO September 4, 150/300 strangle at 3.50
TDOC
#ShortPuts – Same as LVGO. Out another week and 10 points lower than original sale…
Sold TDOC SEP 04 2020 165.0 Put @ 4.30
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 17th 3335/3355-3365/3385 condors for 16.05, with SPX at 3360.
Expiring: Aug 10th 3300/3320 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 16.65.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 10th 3255/3275-3395/3415 condors, sold Friday for 1.10
SEDG
#UnbalancedButterfly – Sold SEDG 1 x 3 x 2 SEP 18 2020 210 / 200 / 190 Unbalanced Put Butterfly @ 2.68 credit.
A starter position on the basis I will be wrong until proven otherwise, whereupon I will add to the position.
It’s useful to look at the Unbalanced Butterfly as the combination of a 1 x long put spread and a 2 x short put spread.
Adjustments down the road: all the risk is to the downside. If SEDG drops below $200 then I cash out the long put spread and use those funds to roll the 2 x short put spread down and out.
LVGO
#ShortPuts – Adding a week further out and 10 points lower than first sale. Still highest IV rank on my main list. A lot of LABU getting ready to close so replacing with this. Doctors or drugs? Close enough for medical exposure. LOL
Sold LVGO SEP 4 2020 100.0 Put @ 2.05
VXX new diagonal
Bought to open 06/18/2021 10.0 Puts / Sold VXX 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.14 Credit with VXX at 26.05.
The long has 312 Days to Expiration so the short can be rolled a few times 🙂
NFLX
#ShortStrangles – Sold NFLX SEP 4 2020 425.0/575.0 Strangle @ 4.75
TRADES:
MS BTO STOCK @50.58
MS STO 8/14/20 51.0 CALLS @.53
MGM STO 8/14/20 23.0 CALLS @.56
ADS
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 51.0 Covered Calls @ 0.25 replacing similar calls from last week
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 52.0 Diagonal Call @ 0.30 replacing a similar call from last week
Assigned on SDC stock.
On Friday SDC stock closed above our strike price of $8.50 resulting in stock being assigned. Purchased the stock on Jul 13. Adjusted our option position on a weekly basis. Diagonal down from $9 to $8.50 on Jul 17 and Calendar rolls on Jul 24, 31 and Aug 7.
Covered Call on PTON Assigned, Profit $6,090 in 19 Days, 9.6% ROI or 184% Annualized
On Friday PTON stock closed above our strike price of $66 and stock was assigned. We purchased the stock on July 20. Calendar roll on 7/24 and Diagonal Roll up from $63.50 to $66 on Jul 31. We had an order in for a diagonal roll up on Aug 7 but didn’t get filled resulting in the assignment. Intend to establish a new covered call position in PTON today.
Covered Call on ISRG Assigned – Profit of $6,944 in 67 Days, 12% ROI or 66% Annualized
On Friday ISRG closed above strike price of $675 resulting in assignment of the shares. Shares were originally purchased on June 1. Over the 67 days we held the stock we adjusted our position on a weekly basis as shown in the table below.
Expiration Part 2
#coveredcalls
$PFE 41 calls
$RAD 16.5 calls
APT 20 calls
$MRVL 40 calls
MDLZ
BTC MDLZ Aug 07 $55.0 short straddle @ $0.66 (originally sold for $1.18)
STO MDLZ Aug 14: $55.0 short straddle @ $1.21
Option Gods teaching me the meaning of gamma with these weekly straddle sales!
Cover is the Jan 2022 long $40 put / $65 call strangle.
EWZ
BTC EWZ Aug 07 $32 straddle @ 0.77 (sold for $1.38)
STO EWZ Aug 14 $31.5 straddle @ $1.46
Cover is EWZ Jan 2022 long strangle $27 call / $37 put
Expiration
#optionsexpiration
$NVDA 365 put Thank you @ramie77 via @fuzzballl
#optionsexpiration #assignment
$CODX 27 put Stock basis 25.5
Options Expiration
#OptionsExpiration – Let another one go the distance…
UVXY 26.0 Calls (sold for 1.45)
Earnings fail
#Earnings. Lost 1.25 on my $YELP supposed-to-be-Straddle but ended up being only a long call. Sure enough, I got the direction wrong.
TRADES:
MS 8/14/20 ITM 50.5 PUTS @.93
MS BTO STOCK @50.14
MS STO 8/14/20 51.0 CALL @.46
KODK STO 8/14/20 17.0 CALLS @1.15
AAOI STO 8/14/20 15.0 PUT @.35
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 10th 3255/3275-3395/3415 condors for 1.10, with SPX at 3350. IV 11.24%, ∆ -.06,+.06
Expiring: Aug 7th #RiskReversal 3290/3270 put credits spreads & 3390/3405 call debit spreads. Keeping credit of .20.
VXX
Another #Boredtodeath trade 🙂
Bought VXX Jun 21 2021 9.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 14 2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.18 Credit with the stock at 26.85.
Normal #Contango drift in VXX will help the long Puts between now and next June
SPX 1 DTE
Bull
Sold AMZN Sep 18 2020 3065/3060 Bull Put @ 6.10
Sold NVDA Sep 18 2020 405/400 Bull Put @ 1.47
Sold BABA Aug 21 2020 245/240 Bull Put @ 1.55
Bought to close PTON Sep 18 2020 60 Put @ 3.05 (sold @ 4.38)
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 14th 3315/3335-3345/3365 condors for 16.30, with SPX at 3342.
Expiring: Aug 7th 3165/3185 call spreads for 20.00 DEBIT. This is the one I sold last Friday , but never had a chance to take profit as index only moved up since then. Sold last Friday for 18.95, closed puts for .05, so total loss 1.10.
NFLX
#ShortStrangles – A little more risk reduction…
Bought to Close NFLX AUG 21 2020 425.0/575.0 Strangle @ 1.56 (sold for 10.70)
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – This ticker is nearly completely cash secured even in a PM account so unloading it too. Hoping for new entries next week.
Bought to Close TQQQ AUG 21 2020 90.0 Puts @ .70 (sold for 2.50)
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – Thinning the herd a little in case there’s more weakness next week…
Bought to Close TQQQ AUG 21 2020 90.0 Put @ .70 (sold for 3.30)
Bought to Close TQQQ SEP 18 2020 45.0 Puts @ .35 (sold for 1.35)
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Taking a small shot next week. Earnings the following week so should be able to get a nice roll if needed.
Sold NVDA AUG 14 2020 420.0 Put @ 2.90
STMP Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Wasn’t expecting that to fill but I’ll take it. Squeezed a buck out of the ‘ol lizard.
Bought to Close STMP AUG 7 2020 245.0/250.0 Bear Call Spread @ 4.90 (Lizard sold @ 5.90)
Letting put side expire….
VXX Puts
Bought to close VXX 08/07/2020 27.0 Diagonal Puts @ 0.30
Sold these during the week @ 0.56/0.50/0.33 and 0.60
Replaced them with half the number of 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.61.
Even swap on the cash.
New shorts are sold against 2021/2022 long puts.
Will add to my shorts for next week if higher prices become available.
AAL Rollups
Riding this rally a little longer
Bought to close AAL 08/07/2020 14.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.02. Sold these @ 0.26 Yesterday.
Replaced them with AAL 08/14/2020 15.0 Calls @ 0.16.
Also rolled up 1 AAL 08/07/2020 13.0 Covered Call to AAL 08/14/2020 13.50 Covered Call @ 0.30 Credit
MRVL Strangle / MS Put Roll / KR Put
#shortstrangles
$MRVL STO 8/14 36/37.50 strangle at $1.00
#shortputs
$MS BTC 8/7 and STO 8/14 50 put at added .50 credit. So far 1.75 collected.
$KR STO 9/18 35 put at 1.53
TSLA
#ShortStrangles – Filled on the new one so closing the current one…
Bought to Close TSLA AUG 21 2020 800.0/3200.0 Strangle @ .75 (sold for 6.10)
TSLA
#ShortStrangles – Trying another one…
Sold TSLA SEP 18 2020 700.0/2900.0 Strangle @ 6.54
VXX
Bought to Open 1 VXX Nov 20 2020 70 Call at $0.98.
Preparing for election fireworks.
SPCE
#CoveredCalls – Stock should be assigned around a 19.75 basis so getting an early start on covered calls. Planning on closing the long side of the put spreads a little later and letting the shorts get assigned so lower the better rest of the day.
Sold SPCE AUG 14 2020 17.5 Calls @ 1.58
WBA Covered rollup
Bought to close WBA 08/07/2020 41.50 Covered Calls / Sold WBA 08/14/2020 42.0 Covered Calls @ 0.17 Credit.
I want to keep this dividend payer a bit longer and it goes ex-div on 08/18 for 0.4675 per share.
I’m guessing the stock will run a bit next week as the dividend date approaches.
Options Bistro 