I don’t get the feeling that we will get a rally this afternoon.
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XLU
XLU has an IV of 51 and is yielding over 3%. A basket of utes with an IV like a tech stock? The 40 month EMA (54.08) or the middle BB on the monthly chart has been support since 2010. Adding to my existing long position. STO Apr17 57 put at 2.14.
UVXY rolling
#VXXGame. BTC $UVXY March 20th 40 short calls for 10.35. Sold for 5.50 on March 6th. Still have more longs than shorts, but I think I can roll this one up if I wait a few more days.
Also early assigned on a couple of March 20th 15 short calls; didn’t notice earlier or would have closed. Will look to close today and then resell when market goes lower, as I believe it will.
#contangoetfs GUSH If we liked…
#contangoetfs GUSH
If we liked GUSH yesterday, it’s down to .82 today.
TQQQ
Rolled the 55 puts from March 13, to April 17, 45 puts for a credit of 2.90
#shortputs M Bottom feeding sold…
Bottom feeding sold April 17, 8 put for .62.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 2660/2680-3010/3030 condors for 2.10, IV 55.97%, SPX 2870, deltas -.06, +.06.
#shortputs MRO Sold March 20,…
#shortputs MRO
Sold March 20, 4 put for .46
SVXY BUCS
#longstock SVXY I’m easing in…
#longstock SVXY
I’m easing in here, bought 25 shares, looking at some spreads.
TLT
#LongPuts – Selling against long Jan 2022 puts…
Sold TLT MAR 20 2020 151.0 Puts @ .40
EXAS
STO January 40 puts at 4.60 with stock at 62.90
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Weird. No fill on this yesterday but with UVXY down today it fills…
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spread @ 2.30
#shortputs LK Sold March 20,…
#shortputs LK
Sold March 20, 30 put for .50, stock at 37.
GUSH shot
#ContangoETFs Bought to Open $GUSH Jan 2021 20 calls for .25. This may never make it back to 20 (a reverse split is probably imminent), but a cheap long shot that I will likely add to at lower strikes and more if there is a split.
Biggest drop since 2008
This time on a percentage basis… 7.6% on SPX. For a bigger drop you need to go back to Oct 2008.
Also, highest VIX close since January 2009.
VIX Closed Opened 3/15/20 Long…
VIX Closed
Opened 3/15/20 $35 Long Calls @ $1.50 on 3/2. Closed at the open this morning for $18.
Was a fishing trade early on in this mess.
T2108
Currently 4.70. Today’s low was 3.68.
Testing the waters with TLT
With $TLT now around its lows of the day, sold 3/20 180/185 bear call spread @ 1.20. Obviously it will be on a tight leash.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Mar 9th 2780/2860 put spreads for 7.20. Condors sold for 1.60 on Friday. Two Mondays ago I let it ride and ended up with a full loss. This week, I got out at a fat loss and I’m guessing it will expire worthless. Such a bad day!
SPCE
#CoveredCalls – Rolling down for additional credit this week.
Rolled SPCE MAR 13 2020 20.0 Calls to MAR 13 2020 17.0 Calls @ 1.30 credit (4.00 total now)
SPY
#ShortPuts – Going way out and down…
Sold SPY MAY 15 2020 225.0 Put @ 5.25
DRIP dropping
150 point swing so far
UVXY
Sold $UVXY March 20th 35 calls for 17.50. Bought for .31 on Jan 27th.
Some of these are my bright spots today. I have more longs than shorts so I can take profits on some of these. The rest is pretty ugly, mainly due to that stupid DRIP call I sold on Friday.
ROKU
Will be #CoveredCalls eventually – Sold ROKU MAR 13 2020 100.0 Calls @ 3.00
if this isn’t an appropriate…
if this isn’t an appropriate background, i will never know …
Saudis Plan Big Oil Output…
Saudis Plan Big Oil Output Hike, Beginning All-Out Price War.
How would this affect DRIP?
Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil output next month, going well above 10 million barrels a day, as the kingdom responds aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/saudis-plan-big-oil-output-225511711.html
It’s not about trading, but…
I wanted to let you all know that I have started a podcast with friend. We cover music, movies, TV and other pop culture topics. I am going to be posting each episode on this blog, as I have it set up to feed directly to iTunes, Spotify, etc. Listeners from those sites will NOT be seeing Options Bistro, however. The Posts are only the mechanism to transmit to the platforms.
You can get more info and see all episodes and updates at my other website, thepickcast.com. I welcome your feedback or comments on that site or on the Posts I make on this site!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 9th 2760/2780-3100/3120 condors for 1.60. IV: 35.09%, SPX 2972, deltas: -.07, +.06. Filled about 30 seconds after the bell.
Expiring: March 6th 2840/2860-3140/3160 condors, sold yesterday for 1.80.
TLT
#LEAPS – Long term short position lottery tickets…
Bought TLT JAN 21 2022 120.0 Puts @ 1.83 average
Sold TLT MAR 13 2020 155.0/145.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .72 (one fifth size)
TLT insanity
Sold $TLT 3/20 170.50/175.50 bear call spread @ 1.28. Meant to sell the 170/175 but I’ll leave it.
TLT
IV is at 42, more like a tech stock. IV rank is 237. Speechless.
VIX breakout
Going to new heights, folks.
NTAP
#CoveredCalls – A few shares leftover from an earnings play…
Bought to Close NTAP MAR 20 2020 51.0 Calls @ .07 (sold for 1.39)
Sold NTAP APR 9 2020 46.5 Calls @ 1.31
OXY
Crazy (?) pricing on puts. Rolled OXY Mar6 33.50 puts to Mar13 33 puts for .41 credit. Fifty cent lower strike for 5 days with the stock at 27. Keeping the dream alive another week.
NVDA rolls
Rolled the following:
$NVDA 3/13 280 put out to 4/17 and down 20 points to the 260 strike for 1.09 credit
$NVDA 3/20 270 put out to 4/9 and down 10 points to the 260 strike for 2.10 credit
New strikes are now back out of the money, if only slightly, with the stock hovering just over 260
SPCE
#CoveredCalls – Pretty aggressive sales ITM. Trying to really reduce basis as it pulls back a little.
Bought to Close SPCE MAR 6 2020 22.0 Calls @ .05 (sold 22/52 spreads @ 3.70 and 4.35)
Sold SPCE MAR 13 2020 20.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.70
JDST
Small play, short term.
BTO $JDST Stock @9.81 Debit
STO $JDST Mar-13-2020 9.50 Calls @1.11
Econ Calendar for week of 3/9/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#earnings #closing COST Bought #ironcondor…
Bought #ironcondor for 1.33, sold yesterday for 1.91. COST is down about 6 points today, I’ll take the gain while I can.
Thanks for the data Jeff
#shortputs DAL Added a March…
#shortputs DAL
Added a March 20, 35 put for .66, stock is at 45 and up today.
UVXY longs
#VXXgame My first purchase of puts: Bought to open $UVXY April 17th 20 puts for 1.39. I screwed up on my order, this can be gotten for less.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – First time in these strikes.
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 45.0/55.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.01
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Rolled the rest of my short puts up and in right at the close yesterday. Completely out of all them now. I did have to buy stock pre-market to cover the DITM calls I had sold yesterday against the short puts. Basically traded all the annoying short puts that were tough to sell against for a half size covered call position.
Not seeing a reverse split coming anytime soon so should have many weeks to sell.
Bought to Close UVXY MAR 6 2020 26.5 Puts @ .05 (sold a long time ago for 1.05)
Bought to Close UVXY MAR 6 2020 31.5 Puts @ .35 (sold a long time ago for 1.00)
UVXY adding
#VXXgame Sold to Open $UVXY March 20th 40 calls for 5.50. Against a higher number of March 25 and 35 longs.
DRIP again
#ContangoETFs This was just too much to resist. I need to get back the losses I took by exiting last week.
Sold $DRIP March 20th 335 calls for 27.00.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Scaling in. Any of these should be very easy to roll if I decide I don’t want the stock. Next target will be April 225 for over 5 bucks.
Sold SPY APR 17 2020 250.0 Put @5.20
February Jobs Report
#Jobs — beating expectations again
+273,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 175K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, down by 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 7.0%, up by 0.1%
Wages up 0.3%; +3.0% year over year
Labor force participation 63.4%, unchanged
January revised up from 225K to 273K
December revised up from 147K to 184K
Tale of two corrections
Following up from my Monday post comparing this correction to 2008’s… we are now looking more similar to the August 2011 correction.
Below, Aug 2011 is on the left, 2020 on the right. At the lows of Aug 2011, we had a week of extreme ups and downs like we have just experienced. In 2011, we then experienced a wide consolidation pattern into early October, when we finally went a bit lower and found the bottom. An extreme rally followed that.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 6th 2840/2860-3140/3160 for 1.80. IV 43.65%, SPX 3020, deltas -.06, +.06
VXX adding
#VXXGame Sold to Open $VXX March 20th 29 calls for 1.95. Offset against March 25 and 27 long calls. First ones I have sold ABOVE my longs, which were bought for .30 and .26 respectively.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding one…
Sold SPY APR 17 2020 275.0 Put @5.60
ROKU
#ShortPuts – Pretty good premium in this thing so adding one…
Sold ROKU MAR 20 2020 95.0 Put @ 2.05
SPLK Earnings
#ShortStrangles #ShortPuts #Earnings – Booked at the open since I’ll be out most of the day…
Bought to Close SPLK MAR 13 2020 130.0/172.5 Strangle @ 1.20 (sold for 3.00)
Bought to Close SPLK MAR 13 2020 135.0 Put @ 1.60 (sold for 2.10)
#shortputs LUV Sold a March…
#shortputs LUV
Sold a March 20, 40 put for .90, stock at 45.
#earnings #ironcondor COST Sold March…
#earnings #ironcondor COST
Sold March 20, 265/275/345/355 for 1.91. The price is jumping all over.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 12, 2019 AC -1.83%
Oct. 3, 2019 AC +0.92%
May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Avg (+ or -) 3.30%
Bias -1.45%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 317.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 303.56 to 331.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 307.02 to 327.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 290.26 to 344.74
Based on UP max only (+5.1%): 333.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPLK
BTC 125/175 strangle at 1.35, sold at 3.40 yesterday. Thanks to Jeff for the data.
Good morning!
New highs for $VXX and $UVXY, even though $VIX pretty far off its highs, and indices far off their lows.
SPX crosses above 50% of…
SPX crosses above 50% of pull back
AN ADD:
RAD BTO STOCK @17.02 I mentioned the other day, that RAD, on the Point & Figure Chart gave a Buy signal, soooo when it came back to 17.0 today I added. My other RAD stock is covering some short calls expiring this Friday.
ABBV
Sold ABBV 17 APR 20 80 PUT @1.55…if assigned div would yield 6%
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Added in my little tastyworks account…
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.50
SPLK Earnings
#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Thanks @thomberg1201 for the idea.
Sold SPLK MAR 13 2020 130.0/172.5 Strangle @ 3.00
#shortputs #shortputs AAL AMD OXY…
#shortputs #shortstrangles AAL AMD OXY
AAL sold April 17, 15 put for 1.13
OXY sold April 17, 30 put for 1.47
AMD sold April 17, 40/57.50 strangle for 2.99
#earnings #shortstrangles SPLK Sold March…
UVXY
Soon to be #CoveredCalls – Time to begin the aggressive call selling since stock assignment looks pretty sure now. A little early on these. Will roll to next week if needed but want the downside protection.
Sold UVXY MAR 6 2020 21.5 Calls @ 2.60
Yesterday on the spike:
Sold UVXY MAR 13 2020 22.0 Call @ 5.30
There is still a chance UVXY could rally and the 26.5 short puts don’t get exercised. To protect the calls I’ve only rolled in half my puts. I’ll roll the other half Friday at the close if needed to get stock.
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 21, 2019 AC +10.76%
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83% Biggest DOWN
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Avg (+ or -) 8.55%
Bias 3.31%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.06 to 164.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.18 to 162.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 123.17 to 176.84
Based on UP max only (-7.8%): 138.26
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte At 12:58 Pacific Time, sold $SPX March 4th 2830/2850-3140/3160 condors for 2.05. IV: 47.73%, SPX 3000, deltas: -.07, +.05
TQQQ
BTC the March 20, 115 calls at .07 cents. Sold at 1.13
UVXY
#ShortPuts – I don’t see the volatility going away any time soon. I rolled these out too soon so bringing them back in to either get lucky getting rid of them or taking stock and aggressively selling calls against it.
Rolled UVXY JUN 19 2020 19.0 Puts to UVXY MAR 6 2020 26.5 Puts @ .30 debit
Sold UVXY MAR 6 2020 35.0 Calls @ .32
Covers the cost of the roll and preserves the original premium in the put sales.
Episode 2 – High Fidelity
High Fidelity: from page, to film, to Hulu / John Cusack Top 5 / Parasite picked / Rock’n’Roll Hall of Fame inductees / New music picks / Old music pick / New picks from an old chick — Go to https://thepickcast.com for playlists and more info.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding…
Sold UVXY JAN 15 2021 30.0/40.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.85
TQQQ
BTC March 6, 110 calls at .02 cents, sold at .85
SPCE
#ShortPuts – Adding a couple…
Sold SPCE MAR 20 2020 20.0 Puts @ 1.05
Options Bistro 