#Earnings Bought to open $JPM Jan 17th 38/40/42 #CallButterfly for .33. Needs to land near 140 on Friday for best profit. Open Interest at that strike are large, and it’s a +2.3% move from now, which is a reasonable expectation…. if we get a bullish move.
Recent Updates Page 223
#earnings #shortstraddle DAL Sold Feb….
#earnings #shortstraddle DAL #shortstrangles JPM
DAL Sold Feb. 21, 60 straddle for 4.05.
JPM Sold Feb. 21 130/140 strangle for 3.00
Thanks for the data Jeff.
JPM earnings analysis (corrected)
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +3.01%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.07%
April 12, 2019 BO +4.68% Biggest UP
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Avg (+ or -) 1.52%
Bias 0.42%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.71 to 140.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 133.93 to 138.07
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 129.64 to 142.36
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 132.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
ENPH
STO ENPH Feb 21 2020 $27.5 naked puts @1.02.
ULTA
The stock is perking up so I rolled my March 280 call to the June 300 call for a credit of .70 cents.
EXAS
STO March 20, 82.5 puts at 3.80
SPX long
#SPX1dte Sold to close $SPX 3290/3305 call spreads for .25. Bought for .80 on Friday. Didn’t get the surge I hoped for, and Friday’s lower close didn’t help. Also should expire today: 3240/3220 put spreads, sold for .70. So I’ll net .15 for the day!
BBBY assigned
#Earnings #Assignment Assigned $BBBY shares at 16.50. Need price above 14.63 to breakeven from #ShortStrangle
EXPIRATION / NUGT CALL
#optionsexpiration
$ROKU 144 call
$NUGT 35 call
$T 38.5 put
$SPX 3210/3235 BUPS Thank you @jeff
#coveredcalls
$NUGT STO 1/17 33 call at .75
VIX to SPX Coorelation
I just noticed the coorelation has popped above the zero line for the first time since the beginning of the month-long market pullback last May.
Closing FDX
From the #FallingKnife trade I put on 12/18, buying to close $FDX 4/17 120 puts @ .65. Sold for 1.75. Taking off for over 60% of the profit, more than 3 months early.
VIX
#Hedges – @Kelly has inspired me to venture back into the belly of the beast. This is similar to my recent “beer money” trade. Going out to March and selling put spreads to finance call spreads and doing it all for a credit. I’ll be looking to book it on any decent spikes. Might sell a few extra UVXY calls while I’m holding this…
Sold VIX MAR 20 2020 15.0/13.0 Bull Put Spreads
Bought VIX MAR 20 2020 17.0/22.0 Bull Call Spread
Entire package for a net credit of .06
Max gain of 5.06 but would probably book it at much less than that. Max loss of 1.94 if VIX is below 13.06 at expiration.
SPX risk reversal
#SPX1dte Took a .10 debit to place this bullish #RiskReversal for Monday:
Sold $SPX Jan 13th 3240/3220 put spread for .70.
Bought $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3305 call spreads for .80
Expiring:
Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads, sold yesterday for .70
#shortputs #closing SEDG Monday sold…
#shortputs #closing SEDG
Monday sold a 75 put for 1.00, bought today for .55.
Thanks to JSD501 for this trade!
EWZ
#jadelizard
STO EWZ 21 Feb 48/49/45 @1.25..
NEO PUTS
#shortputs
$NEO STO 1/17 30 put at .60
LK Puts / SPX 3 DTE Closed
#shortputs
$LK STO 1/17 38 put at .70. Thank you @honkhonk81
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 1/13 3290/3315 BECS at 2.30. STO at 2.02. Price now at 1.55. Breathing better now. Thank you for your guidance @jeffcp66
AMAT
Rolled AMAT Jan 10 62.5 Call out to Jan 24 63 Call for $0.85 credit
Cost Basis with this roll $58.03….Assigned 12/11 at $62.00
#pietrades
With the VIX this low…
With the VIX this low and the market going straight up. I put this trade on this morning to profit from any volatility spikes we might get. Put on several of these.
STO Feb 20 VIX $14 call
BTO Feb 20 VIX $18 calls (3)
STO Feb 20 VIX $22 call
I was able to put these on for $0.35 debit, so very low out of pocket if nothing happens. Pretty good profit if something does happen.
Kelly
#shortstrangles WMT #tastytradefollow Sold Feb….
#shortstrangles WMT
#tastytradefollow Sold Feb. 21, 110/125 for 1.66, earnings Feb. 18.
LABU
STO June, 35 put at 2.70
ISRG
#ShortPuts – ISRG had a “pre-earnings announcement” last night. Guess that explains why the IV was so high in the week prior to earnings. The announcement was bullish so rolling short put up to grab a little more premium all in the week before earnings.
Rolled ISRG JAN 17 2020 550.0 Put to JAN 17 2020 587.5 Put @ 2.30 credit (5.10 total now)
BYND
STC 85/105 bull call spread at 8.20, I bought the trade at 4.45, I could have done a bit better but it is a nice trade any way.
Good Morning everyone at the Bistro.
It’s been far too long since I checked in with you. Hope your trading has been going great.
I have continued to only day trade /NQ in my trading account. I like the ability to make some money in the first 60 to 90 minutes of the trading day, then go flat, shut everything down and go about my day. Don’t have to worry about after hour craziness. The trades I make tend to be very short in time span (usually only a few minutes).
I will make a concerted effort to stop in here a lot more.
Have a great trading day.
Kelly
December Jobs Report
#Jobs — Lowest U6 ever
+145,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 160K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 6.7%, down by 0.2%, a record low (since 1994)
Wages up 0.1%, to 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
November revised down from 266K to 256K
October revised down from 156K to 152K
AMZN BUCS Closed
#BUCS
$AMZN STC 1/17/ 1820/1860 BUCS at 35. BTO 11/27 at 18.54. Late Christmas present. Held it longer than prudent.
LK Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$LK BTC 1/17 36 calls and STO 2/21 46 calls at debit of 4.43. Stock jumped to 44.37.
Jobs tomorrow
Don’t forget, the Jobs report is released before the open tomorrow. This market tends to like catalysts for quick moves.
How low can you go?
#VXXgame Now that the Great Iran Volatility Event of 2020 has ended (or at least paused), we hit new all-time lows on $VXX and $UVXY today.
EWZ
STO IC Feb 21 52/50 43/41 $0.50 Tasty Trade Idea
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads for .70. Not yet sure what I’ll do with call side, if anything.
Also getting out of the Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spread sold yesterday. I don’t know why I made the same trade as last week that crushed me. At least this time the loss will be small. I will now stop thinking upward momentum MUST slow down. Apparently, it does not.
#earnings #closing STZ A couple…
#earnings #closing HD Nov. 18,…
Nov. 18, sold a Dec. 20 #ironcondor in HD for 2.60. HD went from 238 down to 211. I rolled the put spread to Jan. 17, let the calls expire and closed today for an $84 gain.
TSLA
BTO Jan 17 482.5/485.00 Calls $1.21
UBER
Closed #Fuzzy $3.55 Net $212.00 2 Wks
BTO Jan 31 33/35 BuCS $0.86 in-out spread
UBER out
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Jan 10th 31.5 calls for 2.00. Strangles sold for .80 on Dec 6th for .80. Puts previously closed for .05.
#Rolling : Sold $UBER Jan 31st 32/36 strangles for .86. Won’t make up for the loss but will keep it going
LULU
STO $LULU Jan 24 2020 215/225 #BuPS @1.25.
AVGO
#ShortPuts – Other than TSLA and /GC this is the weakest one on my main watchlist today. Hanging on by a thread to a toppy looking chart. I’m selling at the 200ma and about a 4.5 percent divvy yield down there.
Sold AVGO JAN 31 2020 292.5 Put @ 3.10
TSLA
BTO 465/485 bull call spread at 11.70
TREX
STO April 17, 85 puts at 2.90
AYX
STO, 110 puts at 6.60 for march expiration. Stock is at 118 but earnings are on Feb. 25
STNE
BTC STNE 24 JAN 20 40 PUT @.45….STO 1/3 @.95
#earnings BBBY BTC Becs (16.5/17.5)…
#earnings BBBY
BTC Becs (16.5/17.5) for .07
Was STO yesterday for .46
NUGT Calls / Roll LABU Calls / Roll LK Puts
#coveredcalls
$NUGT STO 1/10 35 calls at .56. Wish I had sold stock first thing this morning. A lot slow on trigger.
$LABU BTC 1/10 56 calls and STO 1/17 58 calls at .31 credit. Stock at 58.07.
#shortputs
$LK BTC 1/10 35 puts and STO 1/17 36 puts at .88 credit. Stock at 39.46.
SPX lucky expiration
#SPX1dte That was NOT a fun run up to 3267. But my condor from yesterday has expired worthless.
$SPX Jan 8th 3190/3210-3260/3280, sold yesterday for .80.
#earnings BBBY Sold, (double checked)…
#earnings BBBY
Sold, (double checked) a 17 straddle, Feb. 17, for 3.31
VIX
Getting out of the double vertical with beer money. Closed the long side for .80 on the last spike but vol getting hammered again so bailing here.
Bought to Close VIX JAN 22 2020 13.5/11.5 Bull Put Spreads @ .71
Originally put the trade on for .05 credit so made .14 woohoo!
Missiles flying, airliners getting shot down, impeachments flying everywhere and we can’t get a volatility spike for more than a couple hours. Crazy days we’re in…
CRSP
Covered call, BTO stock at 62.70 and STO January 17, 65 call at 1.30, I like the sector and it tested the 50 dayMA.
#earnings STZ Mistake- I inadvertantly…
#earnings STZ
Mistake- I inadvertantly bought a strangle yesterday. I was using my phone from the airport, I’ll blame my eyes. Argghh.
Sold the put for .45, bought for 1.37, hanging on to the very slightly profitable call.
Closing EXPE
Bought to close $EXPE 4/17 75 puts @ .40. Sold for 1.20 on 11/8/19. Taking the nearly 70% profit off the table with still over 3 months to go to expiration.
BA
#ShortPuts – Whiz confirms and I agree based on some pictures he showed that the 737 was actually shot down last night. I’ll take a shot (no pun intended) out a couple weeks and just prior to earnings.
Sold BA JAN 24 2020 322.5 Put @ 3.10
SPX 5-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spreads for 1.70. I’m not bearish… just don’t think we’ll be moving so fast if we go higher.
I am riding our today’s 3260 call side of condor.
LK
BTC LK 21 FEB 20 24 PUT @.45….STO 1/6 @1.15
TSLA
STC Jan. 10, 460/480 call spread at 16.00, BTO yesterday at 5.90, still long the February 21, 465/485 call spreads.
SPX 1-DTE
$SPX Jan 8 2020 3260/3280 #BeCS (1/2 of Condor) stopped @2.95 – will be a $2.05 loss if the put side expires. Stop was triggered at 3257.5.
BBBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55% Biggest UP
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC +3.38%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Avg (+ or -) 10.73%
Bias -6.96%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 14.68 to 18.82
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.95 to 18.55
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 13.23 to 20.27
Based on UP max only (+16.6%): 19.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
DT
BTO, May 15, 30 calls at 3.00, making a new high yesterday with good volume. I bought options instead of the stock so I know what my maximum loss will be if I am wrong.
Long BA
Two days to expiration. STO BA Jan10 320 put for 2.65.
MRVL Puts
#shortputs
$MRVL STO 1/17 26 puts at .40
Skew??
Been wondering why some IVs and expected moves have been a little off compared to upcoming earnings dates. Totally forgot phase 1 of the China deal is scheduled to get signed on the 15th. That could be throwing things off a little since there’s still always a chance it’ll fall through last second.
Just guessing….
TSLA
#ShortPuts – I can’t believe I’m doing this on a big up day but here goes. Should allow for two rolls before earnings and guessing earnings premium will be jacked this quarter for a possible re-load.
Sold TSLA JAN 24 2020 425.0 Put @ 4.00
BYND
BTO February 21 85/105 call spread at 4.45, stock is breaking out on volume.
X 11 Call/ADMP+AGRX calls
Haven’t been doing any trading lately, both due to the holidays and I’ve been interviewing and preparing for a new job I just started yesterday!
I dipped my toe back in with a long one lot $X 11 Call Feb 21 expiration. Underlying at $11.20 at time of trade.
Both of my $AGRX calls are up about $0.50 a piece, holding through their delayed approval date.
$ADMP calls are still down as well, but planning on holding those same as the Agile calls for now.
Can’t wait to start trading my 401k from my last position once the ACAT goes through!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 8th 3185/3205-3260/3280 condors for .80. IV: 8.16%, SPX 3239.
TSLA
Didn’t post this trade the other day due to travels, current events, etc.
1/3/2020 – BTO $TSLA Jan 17 2020 420 Long Calls @34.75.
1/7/2020 – STC $TSLA Jan 17 2020 420 Long Calls – Trailing stop triggered @49.39.
Continuing to watch the ticker, I could have done better with more time and a stop that wasn’t as tight, but, I’ll take it.
#coveredcalls I could not find…
#coveredcalls
I could not find a hashtag for Jade Lizards, so I’ll post here.
Please let me know if another hashtag would be more appropriate.
BTC SQ jade liz for .74 (17 Jan 62/66/67)
Was STO on Dec 23 for 1.43
This mornings upgrade will likely push it above the 66C
TSLA
This morning I bought the 460/480 call spread for 5.90 for the expiration on Friday.It seems like there is a short squeeze going on.
#earnings #shortstrangles STZ Sold Feb….
Sold Feb. 21, 165/205 for 2.50. It is just outside the max down move, just inside the max up move, 65% IVR.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
SQ
#CoveredCalls – This one had been weak and looking weaker so was selling the covered calls pretty aggressively. Then out of the blue caught an upgrade this morning. Rolling now to get the calls back to breakeven on the stock. This roll should be a couple weeks before next earnings so re-evaluate then.
Rolled SQ JAN 10 2020 62.5 Calls to JAN 24 2020 63.5 Calls @ even
This has been a long term repair trade from getting the stock at 80ish in the August implosion…
ROKU
#BullPutSpreads – This should be a couple weeks before next earnings…
Sold ROKU FEB 7 2020 120.0/100.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 2.15
UBER
Sorry forgot to post this one.
12-26 BTO #Fuzzy Buy Jan 24 30 Call Sell BPS 30/29 Net cost $1.37 Up nicely at this time. Earnings near EOM
ROKU EXAS LABU Calls Rolled / LK Covered Call Short Put
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 1/10 149 calls and STO 1/17 152.50 at .60 credit. But stock falling to 139.58. Might be foolish.
$EXAS BTC 1/10 97 call and STO 1/17 102 call for .30 debit. Stock at 101.72. Might be a good idea.
$LABU BTC 1/17 52 call and STO 1/24 55 call at $1 debit. Would gain $3 if called away. Stock at 55.40
#coveredcalls
$LK STO 1/17 36 call at 1.80
#shortputs
$LK STO 2/7 33 put at 2.85
BA BUCS
#bucs
$BA BTO 2/21 340/360 BUCS at 7.43. Zero hedge has vague rumors of Buffet accumulating stock. A more solid thesis I could not find.
AMAT
$AMAT STO Feb 21 57.50 P @1.52
Earnings Feb 12 and probably out by then, but may stay and would take assignment.
Sorry I was a little slow to post this, I was in with the stock at about 60.30
STZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 3, 2019 BO -6.05%
June 28, 2019 BO +4.63%
April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -5.79%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.89%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 187.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 177.59 to 197.41
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 176.32 to 198.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 164.23 to 210.77
Based on UP max only (+9.8%): 205.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 