Sold double calendar for 1.03, bought yesterday for .38, thanks Jeff.
Recent Updates Page 251
FND
STO October 18, 50 puts @ 1.55, this is a SMM trade that they like but I missed the proper entry so decided to sell puts.
NUGT HIIQ Rolled
#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 10/18 36 call and STO 10/25 38 call for .30 debit
$HIIQ BTC 10/18 25 call and STO 11/15 28 call for .40 credit
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 3.00.
Expiring today:
Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045, sold Friday for .50
Sept 23rd 2915/2940-3050/3075, sold Wednesday for 2.65
#earnings #rolling FDX Rolled Oct….
KMX earnings analysis and trade
#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 21, 2019 BO +3.18%
March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86%
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
Avg (+ or -) 4.87%
Bias 3.67%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
NOTE: The 5-day results are still bullish, but less so, as extreme one-day up moves tended to fade over the following days.
With stock at 86.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.60 to 92.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 81.81 to 90.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 74.94 to 97.06
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 82.90
Open to requests for other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
Avg (+ or -) 4.88%
Bias -1.84%, negative bias on earnings.
NOTE: The 5-day results are more bullish, as extreme one-day down moves tended to fade over the following days.
5-day bias is +0.80%
With stock at 1152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1081.01 to 1223.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1096.22 to 1208.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1016.04 to 1288.96
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1230.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
UUP closed
#LongCalls On July 29th I bought $UUP Sept 20th 26 calls for .72. UUP price was 26.58 on that day. I forgot to close Friday so I was assigned, and I just sold the stock for 26.88.
So I had the direction right, but this thing only moves a few pennies in weeks, so profit of .16 on the trade.
NUGT WORK STZ
Rolled $NUGT 9/27 30 Puts // 10/4 30.5 puts @.50 Credit against existing 10/18 20 puts
Rolled down 10/18 $WORK 10/18/2019 40 Calls // 10/18/2019 28 Calls @.57. #CoveredCalls.
STO $STZ 180/190/220/230 10/18/2019 #IC @2.25. Earnings 10/3. Short options at ~20 delta.
Direxion
Upcoming ETF Distributions
Direxion will pay income distributions on select funds according to the following schedule:
- Ex-Date: 9/24/2019
- Record Date: 9/25/2019
- Pay Date: 10/1/2019
Options Expiration
$ADBE 9/20 292.5/302.5 #BeCS – STO 9/11 @1.31 as part of a #IronCondor.
$TSLA 9/20 220/230 #BuPS – STO 9/12 @0.74
$SPX 9/20 2950/2965/3040/3055 #IC STO 9/19 @0.80.
Expirations
#optionsexpiration
#spxcampaign
$SPX 2895/2920/3050/3070 STO at 2.40. Thank you @jeff
$TSLA 220/230 BECS at max loss
$BYND 160/170 BECS STO at 1.30
$TQQQ 65 calls Covered by leaps
$EXAS 109 call Covered
$TRTN 30 put
Rolled $NUGT Puts
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 9/27 34 put and STO 10/18 31 put for added .53 credit.
Rolling last Sep NUGT position
Rolled $NUGT 9/20 31 calls out to 10/18 31 calls @ 1.85 credit
ADBE BUPS Closed
#bups
$ADBE BTC 9/20 270/280 BUPS at .40. STO at 2.88 on 8/26
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045 condors for .50, 10-pt wings, double size.
IV: 9.31%, SPX 3000
Expiring today: Sept 20th 2940/2960-3045/3065, sold yesterday for .75
Sept 20th 2895/2920-3050/3075, sold Monday for 2.45
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Quick pullback helped a little. Trying to give this some room in case the breakout is real. Earnings not until first week of Nov.
Rolled REGN SEP 20 2019 292.5 Call to OCT 11 2019 307.5 Call @ .80 credit
NUGT
STO $NUGT 35/40 9/27/2019 #BeCS @.85
Econ Calendar for week of 9/23/19
GDP Thursday morning
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=23&month=9&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
Closing NFLX
As promised, BTC $NFLX 10/11 250/240 bull put spread @ 1.60. Small loss (sold for 1.41 a little while ago).
SPX adding call spread
#SPX1dte Using this Montana dip to add another long… 10 points lower and another day later than yesterday’s:
Bought to Open $SPX Sept 30th 3035/3050 call spreads for 2.50. SPX at 2994.
I would like to have seen Montana
BREAKING: Stocks plunge as China delegation cancels trip to Montana to visit farms https://t.co/vOvPSFQvYq pic.twitter.com/KnnMbCfp8I
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) September 20, 2019
NFLX put spread
I may be a bit early but STO $NFLX 10/11 250/240 bull put spread @ 1.41. I will have this on a very short leash–if we break lower again below today’s LOD of 268.00 I will close this and get out of the way. 10/11 expiration (weekly) to avoid earnings on 10/16.
OSTK
#CoveredCalls
STO 10.18.2018 $OSTK 20 calls @0.95
FDX
BTC the 190 calls at .01 but, still short the 150 puts for October 18. This was not as bad as the ULTA trade.
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Needing a pullback in this one to get a better roll for my covered call. What better way to get a pullback than to add a bullish position? 🙂 🙂 . Selling near the 200ma and two weeks before earnings…
Sold NVDA OCT 25 2019 162.5 Put @ 2.45
NFLX
BTC NFLX 9/20 165/175 #BuPS @1.28. Was STO 8/12 @1.42. Stock at 276.50 or so.
Is frustrating as this was ~@0.05 yesterday at the close. Looks like there was unfavorable analyst news out this morning which caused the underlying to tank. How convenient.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator Look for higher prices over the next couple of weeks.
Thinning some more NUGT
Bought to close 9/20 35 calls @ .12. Sold for 1.40 on 6/20.
My only remaining September position is short 31 calls which I’m leaving on into tomorrow’s expiration to see if a move down will allow me to take them off for a profit. If not, I’ll roll them to October.
The rest of my positions (that weren’t closed for a profit) have been rolled out. In addition to the above I am now short 10/18 27 calls, 10/18 32 calls and 12/20 53 calls.
GDXJ strangle
Still high IV in gold. Sold $GDXJ (junior miners ETF) 10/18 35/42 strangle @ .79 credit. Probability of profit 68%.
#closing ROKU 1 down, 1…
#closing ROKU
1 down, 1 to go. August 7, sold a 60/140 strangle with ROKU around 100, it peaked around 173. Three adjustments resulted in a 140 straddle. I was able to exit with a $12.00 gain.
I still have another ROKU position that started as a 50/80 earnings strangle from May which isn’t looking very good lately.
Upside Warning / Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator As an Upside Warning is preparing to fire today (VIX close below 14.50), I’m doing this Risk Reversal for next Friday. I will add more to the long if we get a pullback tomorrow or Monday.
Bought to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3045/3060 bull call spreads for 2.40.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spreads for 5.80.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 20th 2940/2960-3045/3065 condors for .75, IV 12.64%, SPX 3011.
STNE
I am finally able to log in. Yesterday I STO the October 18, 36 puts for 1.85 and today I bought the November 50 calls on DHI for 2.75, the stock is at 51.05
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads #ContangoETFs – C’mon Mr. Market give us a chance to re-load. Never got a chance to add much to these.
Bought to Close UVXY OCT 18 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .10 (sold for 1.25)
TRADES:
STNE STO 9/20/19 39.0 PUTS @.79 Want to own the stock a little cheaper.
OSTK BTC 9/20/19 21.0 CALLS @.05
STNE BTO STOCK @38.27
Closing UVXY call spreads
Bought to close $UVXY 10/18 45/55 bear call spread @ .14. Sold for 1.27 on 8/28.
All That Glitters: Rolled GLD NUGT / Rolled KL HIIQ / GOOGL BUPS / SPX Campaign
#longcalls
$GLD STC 9/20 132 calls and BTO 10/18 140 calls pocketing 7.40 in profits per call
#coveredcalls
$KL BTC 9/20 50 call and STO 10/18 50 call for added 1.07 credit
$NUGT BTC 9/20 32 call and STO 10/18 36 call for added 1.07 credit and four added dollars if gold spikes
$HIIQ BTC 10/18 23 call and STO 10/18 25 call for .70 debit
#bups
$GOOGL STO 10/18 1200/1210 BUPS at 3.30. Earnings around 10/25. Plan to BTC at 50%
#spxcampaign #spx1dte
Expired
$SPX 2930/2950/3040/3060 STO at 1.20 Thank you @jeff
ADBE closed
#Earnings. Sold to close $ADBE Sept 20th 282.5 #DoubleCalendar for 3.82. Bought yesterday for 1.89 (avg price).
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2915/2940-3050/3075 condors for 2.65, IV 12.90%, SPX 3005.
Expiring today: Sept 18th 2925/2945-3040/3060, sold yesterday for .85
Also, Sept 18th 3010/2985 expires, and based on closing SPX price of 3006.01, it will cash settle at a cost of 3.99. Sold it last Friday for 7.00. I expected a rally after the Fed, but it put me through the ringer first.
SPX 1-DTE Expiring
Expiring $SPXW 9/18/2019 2930/2945/3040/3055 #IronCondor STO 9/17 @0.90
Been following these when I can – usually going with $15 wide spreads. Stops at $5 away from the short options strikes, which helps keep me from feeling like I need to watch the chart constantly.
Thank you Jeff!
XBI
#ShortPuts – Out of this one now. Looking to get back in…
Bought to Close XBI SEP 20 2019 80.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.55 and 2.00)
Just What I Needed
In honor of the late Ric Ocasek, I dedicate this song to myself, as this last-hour rally is just what I needed.
$FDX had tried as an…
$FDX had tried as an earningstrade a strangle 150/190 exp Oct18. Didn’t give me the success I wanted, i rolled the call down to 165 collected extra premium and will wait a little. My BEP is 146.85 on the put side. This will be my last time trading FDX once this is resolved.
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Getting back in this one. Hoping for a bigger selloff but this should be a good starter…
Sold SOXL OCT 18 2019 150.0 Put @ 5.00
TNA
#CoveredCalls – Rolling up and out but staying in the money for some downside protection. Put this in at twice the mid and got filled immediately. Should’ve asked for more!
Rolled TNA SEP 20 2019 53.5 Calls to OCT 18 2019 54.0 Calls @ .79 credit
Rolling NUGT
Rolled in the money $NUGT 9/20 30 calls out, and up 2 points, to 10/18 32 calls @ .80 credit
DAY TRADE:
STNE BTO STOCK @35.70
FDX iron condor
With the selling momentum slowing and IV still decent (IV rank 44) sold $FDX 10/18 130/140/160/170 iron condor @ 2.52 with the stock centered between the short strikes.
ADBE
Followed Jeff Dbl Cal $1.99 closed this AM $2.60
Thanks Jeff
TRADES:
GOOS BTO STOCK @42.51
OSTK 9/20/19 BTC 26.0 CALLS @.05
OSTK 9/20/19 BTC 27.0 CALLS @.05
OSTK 9/20/19 BTC 30.0 CALLS @.05
HIIQ Puts Rolled
#shortputs
$HIIQ BTC 9/20 26 put and STO 10/18 24 puts at 1.20 debit. Original sale for 7.40 and stock perking up. Stock now at 21.49.
ADBE
#closing #earnings ADBE Bought ADBE…
ROKU roll
Rolled $ROKU 10/18 180/190 bear call spread down to 155/165 for 1.37 credit. This is part of an iron condor with a 140/130 bull put spread. Short puts have been breached so I rolled the call spread down. This iron condor was a rollout from September. Total credit taken in so far on the rolled position is 4.71 putting my breakevens near 135 and 160.
CHWY puts
#PostEarnings Sold to Open $CHWY Oct 11th 28 puts for 1.50.
This is a recent IPO which, like UBER, hasn’t shown much volatility. It’s also a low-priced stock which minimizes the risk of these ATM puts.
AAPL MSFT BUPS / STNE Put
#bups
$AAPL STO 10/18 210/215 BUPS at 1.40
$MSFT STO 10/18 130/135 BUPS at 1.40
#shortputs
$STNE STO 10/18 36 put at 1.75. Replaces 9/20 30 put I closed for 95% profit yesterday. Thank you @jsd501
NFLX put spread
$NFLX A bit on the aggressive side but I like what the stock has been doing to get off the mat the last few days. Sold 10/11 285/275 bull put spread @ 1.98. Short strike 27 delta. Expiration is the 10/11 weekly not the 10/18 monthly (avoiding earnings which are on 10/16.
#earnings ADBE #closing SHOP #tastytradefollow…
#earnings ADBE #closing up SHOP
#tastytradefollow sold Oct. 18, 254/260/300/315 #ironcondor for 4.38
Thanks for the data Jeff
SHOP bought #ironcondor for 5.00 sold for 5.60 on Sept. 11.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2925/2945-3040/3060 condors for .85, IV 13.71%, SPX 2998. IV is up from recent series due to Fed announcement. Deltas are .06 and .05
STNE
STO October 18, 36 puts @ 1.85
ADBE trade
#Earnings. Bought to Open $ADBE Sept20/Sept27 282.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.83. Filled on TOS, I am having to bid higher on IB.
ADBE earnings
$ADBE Borrowing an earnings trade idea from TastyTrade. 9/20 (this Friday) 292.50/295/300 broken wing call butterfly @ .30 credit. No downside risk. Profitable below 297.80. Stock at 282.58. Earnings after the bell today.
EDIT: Corrected. Originally posted “no upside risk” but the trade is a call butterfly for a credit–there is no downside risk. Apologies.
CMG adjustment
$CMG With the stock making a move up, my iron condor was starting to get too much short delta so I rolled the 10/18 725/705 bull put spread up to 780/760 for 2.18 credit. Still paired with the 850/870 call spread, with the stock around 825. Total premium taken in now 6.33 against 20 point wide wings.
FDX earnings analysis
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +6.89% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias -0.80%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 173.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.29 to 182.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 166.21 to 179.79
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.2%): 151.96 to 194.04
Based on UP max only (+6.9%): 184.92
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADBE earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21%
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +7.11% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.72%
Bias 0.49%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 282.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 268.04 to 296.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 272.00 to 293.00
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 261.93 to 303.07
Based on UP max only (+7.1%): 302.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
Anyone trading ADBE, FDX,GIS, DRI
Anyone trading ADBE, FDX,GIS, DRI
#earnings FDX #tastytradefollow Sold Oct….
#earnings FDX
#tastytradefollow Sold Oct. 18, 150/190 strangle for 2.10
OSTK Who took the shock…
OSTK Who took the shock paddles to this stock. Wow!!
TRADES:
:
GOOS STO 9/20/19 43.5 ITM PUTS @1.41 Want to buy the stock cheaper, or get the nice premium.
STNE STO 9/20/19 36.0 ITM PUTS @.80 SEE ABOVE ;>)
TRADES:
STNE BTO STOCK @34.87
STNE STO 9/20/19 35.0 CALLS @.45
OSTK STO 9/20/19 21.0 CALLS @.65
GOOS STC STOCK a mistake, up .40 now. ;>(
SPX 1-dte
sold 18 SEP 2019 SPX BrCS, 3040/2345 for 0.25
ULTA
#CoveredCalls – Been double and triple selling these but going back to just one until this bounce plays out. Leaving next week’s 242.50 but taking small loss on the following week.
Bought to Close ULTA OCT 4 2019 240.0 Call @ 2.55 (sold for 2.00)
$SPX 1DTE Expired / OLLI BUCS and BUPS and Put Closed / Rolled TQQQ / STNE Put Closed / NUGT PLAN Rolled / EXAS Covered Call
#optionsexpiration #spxcampaign
$SPX 2865/2890 BUPS STO 9/10 at 1.35
$SPX 2960/2985 BUPS STO 9/12 at 2.85 Thank you @jeff
By Golly $OLLI All were opened after earnings release which dropped the stock.
$OLLI STC 9/20 55/60 BUCS on 9/10 for 4.50. BTO 8/29 at 2.97
$OLLI BTC 9/20 55/60 BUPS on 9/16 for .20/ STO 8/19 at 2.03
$OLLI BTC 9/20 55 puts at .05 on 9/12. STO 8/29 at 1.35
Have not been posting lately. A little out of sorts. Hope to be back soon.
#syntheticstock
$TQQQ Rolled 9/20 65 calls to 10/4 68 calls at even. Gain three points if called away. These sold against 66.67 LEAPS. Collected 68% of call cost so far.
$STNE BTC 9/20 30 put at .05/ STO 8/19 at 1.00. Thank you @fuzzy
$NUGT Rolled 9/20 35 put to 9/27 34 put at .37 debit.
$PLAN Rolled 9/20 50 put to 10/18 for added 1.10 credit. Thanks @honkhonk81 for original idea.
#coveredcalls
$EXAS STO 9/20 109 calls at 1.05
SPX razor’s edge
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 16th 3000/2975 put spreads for 1.65. Sold Thursday for 3.00. Barely escaped alive.
Expiring: Sept 16th 2950/2960-3035/3045 condors, sold Friday for .45.
Looks like we missed the Upside Warning, so the clock resets and we need three consecutive closes below 14.50. But it could be a nutty week with the Fed Wednesday and oil volatility.
