#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX July 8th 2935/2955-3010/3025 condors, sold Friday for .95
Recent Updates Page 261
Taking profits on CVS
Bought to close $CVS 8/16 50 puts @ .50. Time has marched on and the stock hasn’t moved too much since I put the trade on (sold for 1.34 on 3/1).
Econ Calendar for week of 7/8/19
Jerome Powell testifies before Congress on Wed & Thur.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=8&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
PEP earnings analysis
#Earnings $PEP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 17, 2019 BO +3.75%
Feb. 15, 2019 BO +2.94%
Oct. 2, 2018 BO -1.79% Biggest DOWN
July 10, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO +2.08%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO -0.18%
Oct. 4, 2017 BO +0.19%
July 11, 2017 BO -0.46%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.72%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO -0.17%
Sept. 29, 2016 BO +0.35%
July 7, 2016 BO +1.48%
Avg (+ or -) 1.57%
Bias 1.02%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 128.62 to 135.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.92 to 134.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 125.72 to 138.28
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 129.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
Upside Warning data
Here’s a new chart examining the data from all occurrences of the upside warning since 1/1/2000.
–Chart includes first 20 days of each day’s SPX HIGH, as a percentage above or below the CLOSING PRICE of the Upside Warning firing date (in the current case, it fired on Friday)
–Blue represent occurrences when the highest move was +1.0% or higher
–Yellow represents a highest move up of less than 1.0%
–Red represents no move higher before the warning is canceled
–Final columns on right are:
—-Number of days in the warning before it was canceled
—-Highest point of SPX during that UpW
—-Lowest SPX high BEFORE the highest point was reached
As you can see, several UpW’s start with a pullback, sometimes quite deep. But eventually, out of 42 warnings, the SPX moved higher 92% of the time, and moved at least 1% higher 83% of the time.
Click on the chart for larger view.
SPX longer
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte
Taking advantage of more pullback to get longer.
Sold $SPX July 19th 2960/2935 put spreads for 5.50
Bought $SPX July 19th 3025/3040 call spreads for 1.80
I’m working on a chart of Upside Warning data… will post shortly.
Look out above
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close Friday. This signal has been over 90% effective since 2000, leading to at least a 1.5% short-term gain in the S&P. Expect new record highs over the next couple of weeks.
WYNN
#ShortPuts – Replacing stock getting called away. Selling prior to earnings…
Sold WYNN JUL 26 2019 126.0 Put @ 2.10
SMM OMM
Anybody still members over there? Prices go up tonight. Took a 30 day free trial just to see what’s been going on. Doubt if I re-join but wanted to lock in the lower price just in case…
TRADES: Sold 1/2 of my…
TRADES: Sold 1/2 of my positions. Will buy back though. These are longer term holds. A month is my long term. ;>)
GOOS STC STOCK @40.63
PLAY STC STOCK @40.24
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 8th 2935/2955-3010/3025 condors for .95. IV: 6.06%, SPX 2988.
TRADES:
TLRY STO 7/12/19 45.5 PUTS @1.21
TLRY STO 7/12/19 47.5 CALLS @1.16 COVERED
TLRY STO 7/12/19 47.0 PUTS @1.97 A rollout.
Closing HIIQ
With the stock recovering a bit and now hanging around the short put strike I decided to close this trade for about 45% of the max profit. Bought to close $HIIQ 7/19 jade lizard (short 26 puts + 34/37 bear call spread) @ 1.77. Sold for 3.20 on 6/7.
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Still squeezing. Against my better judgement I’m selling one more round prior to earnings and hopefully before a big breakout.
Bought to Close REGN JUL 05 2019 320.0 Call @.05 (sold for 2.33)
Sold REGN JUL 26 2019 325.0 Call @ 3.20
TNA WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Using the weakness to get a couple rolls in…
TNA: Finally back in the green on this one after selling covered calls in the hole and getting caught in the Dec/May mega rally
Rolled TNA JUL 05 2019 60.o Call to JUL 19 2019 61.5 Call @ .35 credit
WYNN: Rolling one and probably letting the rest get called away this week. Took stock at 135 a few months ago and worked back to a small profit. Looking for a re-entry sale for week prior to earnings.
Rolled WYNN JUL 12 2019 118.0 Call to AUG 09 2019 121.0 Call @ .19 debit
June Jobs Report
#Jobs — big reversal from May’s disappointment
+224,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, up 0.1
U6 unemployment at 7.2%, up by 0.1
Wages up 0.2%, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.9%, up 0.1
May revised down from 75K to 72K
April revised down from 224K to 216K
SPX and away
#SPX1dte I think we’re on our way up, folks. Barring some major event, Upside Warning should fire on Friday, and should lead to a follow through to at least 3040 over the next week or two.
#RiskReversal
Sold $SPX July 12th 2970/2945 put spreads for 3.90.
Bought $SPX July 12th 3025/3035 LONG call spreads for 1.80
TSLA BECS
#bearcallspreads
$TSLA STO 7/19 245/250 BECS at 1.70
AVGO
#ShortPuts – Selling at the expected move and at the 200ma. Also well before next earnings…
Sold AVGO AUG 09 2019 265.0 Put @ 3.40
EDIT: 4.1% divvy yield down there also
LABU Roll
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 7/5 50 call and STO 7/19 52 call at additional .90 plus $2 is called away.
Risk too big
#SPX1dte Since the day ended with a spike higher, and the we have the first $VIX close below the 78.6 Fib line, we could see a “quiet” low volume rally tomorrow, and my double-sized condor is not worth the risk, being only 17 points away from today’s close.
Closed $SPX July 3rd 2990/3010 call spreads for .65. Condors sold for .45 an hour ago. I’ll keep the downside put risk on.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 3rd 2910/2930-2990/3010 condors for .45. I meant to go for 10-wide, double size, but mistakenly went my normal 20-size, double size. So double the risk than usual, but looking for a quiet holiday anyway.
Closing HQY
And taking a loss. Should have paid better attention to the downward trending moving averages (you were right @jsd501 !)
Sold 8/16 65/70 bull call spread @ 1.25. Bought for 2.18 on 6/28.
#butterfly #shortstrangles TSLA GDXJ
TSLA From a TastyTrade discussion, sold Aug. 2, +160/-170/-170/+175 put butterfly for .27
GDXJ sold Aug. 16, 31/38 strangle for 1.00
Closing some VXX
Taking profits on long put spreads.
Sold $VXX 7/12 28/24 bear put spread @ 3.05. Bought for 2.00 on 6/25.
Sold $VXX 7/19 28/24 bear put spread @ 3.06. Bought for 1.94 on 6/14.
NFLX ADBE
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Just to stay involved in this one. Selling a couple weeks prior to next earnings.
Sold NVDA AUG 02 2019 152.5 Put @ 2.40
Closing CMG
Bought to close $CMG 7/19 770/780 bear call spread @ .35. Sold for 1.86 on 6/25.
#bups
$GOOGL BTC 7/19 980/1010 BUPS at .60. STO at 6.72 on 6/6
#coveredcalls
$LABU STO 7/5 53 call at 1.10
#spxcampaign
$SPX 7/1 2845/2825/300/3025 IC Expired Thank you @jeffcp66
#shortputs
$T BTC 7/19 32 put and STO 8/16 33 put at .66 credit. Forgot to wait for down day. Thank you @jeffcp66
#longcalls
$PLAY BTO 7/19 40 calls at 1.45. Didn’t I say not to buy calls. Back to the chalkboard wearing the dunce cap and writing 100 times……
SPX 9-dte closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX July 5th 3000/3025 call spreads for .90. Sold condor for 3.90 last Wednesday. I’ll let the puts expire.
Also, expiring today: July 1st 2825/2845-3000/3025 condors, sold Friday for 1.35.
DIS
I spent a few days at Disneyworld last week, the guest of a conventioneer.The happiest place on earth has turned into the most expensive place on earth. Customer service, organization and convenience, all are amazing. They may have the most expensive beer in the country too.
T closed
#PieTrades Bought to close $T July 19th 32 puts for .10. Sold for 1.48 on April 9th. Will sell again on next move down.
A TRADE: Still in love,…
A TRADE: Still in love, just trading around it.
GOOS STC STOCK 39.41
#earnings #closing AVGO
March 14, sold an April 18, 240/300 strangle, AVGO went way up, I went inverted and was assigned at 320, then AVGO went way down. There was good premium in selling calls and I had the cost basis down to 295. I closed the position today as AVGO was up 16 points. I was fortunate to make almost $400 on this, have some cash back in the account, plus receiving a nice dividend tomorrow. Phew.
WORK
STO $WORK 7/19/2019 40 Calls @.8 against stock bought at 40.31. $WORK currently @37.00 #diggingout
NVDA
BTC $NVDA 7/19/2019 130/140 #BuPS @.10. Was STO 6/18 @1.55.
Low VIX
Good morning… looks like we’ll get the lowest VIX open since early May, when the Downside Warning hit. If it holds below 13.67 into the close we could be en route to an Upside Warning.
WDC……Need some advice I have…
WDC……Need some advice
I have been assigned WDC short calls and was wondering what’s the best way to handle the short stock, especially now it’s running away. Hoping its not to late!
TNA WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Just can’t quite get these to expire. Continuing to trickle them up…
Rolled TNA JUN 28 2019 59.0 Call to JUL 05 2019 60.0 Call @ .10 credit
Rolled WYNN JUN 28 2019 123.0 Call to JUL 05 2019 126.0 Call @ 1.05 credit
HQY call spread
Bullish on this stock that’s near the bottom of its range for the last couple of months. IVR is low (20) so I decided to buy calls. Bought $HQY 65/70 bull call spread @ 2.18. Bearish moving average configuration so I’m not looking for a huge breakout here.
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Getting what I can. Building a nice base and squeezing but could still go either way.
Bought to Close REGN JUN 28 2019 317.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 3.13)
Sold REGN JUL 05 2019 320.0 Call @ 2.33
LABU Rollout
Not going to let @optioniceman get all the dizzy activity.
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 6/28 $48 call and STO 7/5 $50 call at extra .59 plus $2 if assigned.
SRPT Bear Call Spread
#bearcallspreads
$SRPT STO 7/19 165/175 at 1.45
Econ Calendar for week of 7/1/19
#Jobs report on Friday
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=1&month=7&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
CSX
#ShortPuts – Starter position but never got a chance to add. Running low on inventory so wouldn’t mind seeing a Trump/Xi throwdown at the G20 🙂 🙂
Bought to Close CSX JUL 05 2019 72.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 1.30)
DRIP FAZ TZA Reverse Splits
#ReverseSplit – https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/upcoming-splits.aspx
STZ Earnings
#JadeLizard – Better than nothing…
Bought to Close STZ JUN 28 2019 177.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.25 (put side expiring) (sold for 3.00)
Sold SPX early
#SPX1dte Taking exception to my normal rules and selling Monday’s 1-dte in the morning…. I don’t expect much movement today, and using the morning volatility and additional theta value to get good premium and a wide condor for Monday, which could see a strong move with news from China talks.
Sold $SPX July 1st 2825/2845-3000/3025 condors for 1.35, IV 16.2%, SPX 2934.
ABBV Put Closed
#shortputs
$ABBV BTC 7/19 65 put at .38. STO at 1.80.
STZ Fuzzy Earnings
#earnings #jadelizard
$STZ BTC 6/28 190/192.50 BECS at 2.20. STO at 1.04. I will let the 6/28 177.50 put expire. STO at 1.91. Thank you @fuzzball for the trade.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold Thursday: $SPX Jun 28th 2870/2890-2955/2975 condors for 1.00. IV: 10.66%, SPX 2928
STZ Earnings
#JadeLizard – No upside risk and selling the put at the expected move. Stock basis would be down around the May spike low if it implodes…
Sold STZ JUN 28 2019 177.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.00
ABBV T
#Shortputs – Booking a couple…
Bought to Close ABBV JUL 19 2019 65.0 Put @ .55 (sold for 2.01) thanks @geewhiz112 !
Bought to Close T JUL 05 2019 31.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for .53)
BYND BUPS
#bups
$BYND STO 7/19 120/130 BUPS at 2.15
WAB Put Closed
#shortputs
$WAB BTC 7/19/26 put at .80. STO on 5/30 at 3.50. Thank you @ramie77
A TRADE:
PLAY STO 7/5/19 38.0 PUTS @.35
A TRADE: An experiment.
PLAY STO 6/28/19 39.5 CALLS .35 Expires tomorrow. Will cover if necessary.
SPX 1-dte
BuPS 2885/2880 expiring 6/28/2019 for 0.25
STZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%
Avg (+ or -) 5.28%
Bias 2.88%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 185.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 174.86 too 195.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 175.24 to 194.76
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 162.04 to 207.96
Based on UP Max only (+9.8%): 203.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC +3.84%
Avg (+ or -) 4.77%
Bias 0.96%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 83.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.27 to 87.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 79.42 to 87.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 74.13 to 92.67
Based on DOWN Max only (-7.1%): 77.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
Expired / BYND Puts
#spxcampaign
$SPX 2795/2770 BUPs STO at 1.30
$SPX 2795/2770 BUPs (Sold in two accounts by fortuitous happening, i.e. not paying attention) STO at 1.45
$SPX 2900/2875 BUPs STO at .85
$SPX 2795/2770 BECS STO at 1.15
Thank you @jeffcp66
#longputs
$BYND BTO 6/28 157.50 put at 5.95 Stock a little like my ekg. We will see.
Closing ABBV
A quick 1 day profit, taking off for >50% of the max profit. Bought to close 7/19 65 puts @ .90. Sold for 1.94 yesterday. Thanks for the idea @geewhiz112 !
ATVI ITM rollout
Been rolling this losing trade out since November. Or maybe I should adopt a more optimistic attitude and call it a “soon to be ex-losing trade”. Rolled 7/19 50 puts out to 8/16 50 puts @ .85 credit with the stock at 46.76.
Total credit so far (this will be the 8th rollout): 2.17. Stock is let’s say around 1.00 below the August breakeven. Technically the stock is in an uptrend the last month and is now above the major moving averages with the 20 close to crossing above the 50. Of course there are earnings to deal with before August expiration. If the stock makes a run into earnings then I won’t have to worry about it.
#syntheticcoveredcalls
$TQQQ BTC 7/5 60 call and STO 7/19 62 call at even.
WBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
April 5, 2017 BO -1.61%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2016 BO +4.97% Biggest UP
July 6, 2016 BO -2.35%
Avg (+ or -) 4.25%
Bias -2.21%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 52.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.93 to 55.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.46 to 54.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 45.95 to 59.45
Based on UP Max only (+5.0%): 55.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 9-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 5th 2800/2825-3000/3025 condors for 3.90. IV: 16.22%, SPX 2923
TRADES:
TLRY BTO STOCK MINIMUM to cover a call @47.51
TLRY STO 6/28/19 45.0 PUTS @.60
TLRY STO 6/28/19 48.0 CALLS @.91
TLRY STO 6/28/19 48.5 CALLS @.83
SPX safety
#SPX1dte I closed my short June 26th 2875 puts for .05. When I woke up I was worried about the call side. Now I’m just being safe because I don’t trust this market to the downside.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jun 26th 2865/2875-2945/2955 condors for .55. Due to lower premium I am trying a different approach: wings that are only 10-wide and double the position size. Risk is theoretically the same… and it should be the same in practice too, as the spreads will be cheaper to exit when stops are hit since the closer-in long options will have more value.
IV: 10.79%, SPX 2916
ABBV
#ShortPuts – Thanks @geewhiz112 for the idea. Earnings should be the following week. 6.8% divvy at the basis I would receive the stock.
Sold ABBV JUL 19 2019 65.0 Put @ 2.01
#earnings MU
Sold July 19, 29/37 strangle for 1.06, profitable just outside the 1 day max moves. Thanks again Jeff.
AAPL put spread
Sold $AAPL 7/19 190/180 bull put spread @ 1.70 credit with the short strike at 30 delta, right around support,
ABBV Short Puts
#shortputs
$ABBV STO 7/19 65 put at 1.80. Stock dropped today on acquisition of Allergan.
VXX put spread
Bought $VXX 7/12 28/24 bear put spread @ 2.00. 1:1 risk/reward. Will look to take off for around 3.00.
AMZN Put Spread
#bullputspreads
$AMZN STO 7/19 1830/1880 BUPS at 6.35. Stock at 1895.73
