#LongStock #ShortPuts – Stock will be called away @ 150.0 (basis 141.90)
Trying to replace it adding to previous put sales…
Sold NVDA MAR 22 2019 145.0 Put @ 2.95
Recent Updates Page 263
UVXY call spread
Sold $UVXY Apr 18 56/66 bear call spread for 1.61 with UVXY at 47.99
SPX 1 DTE
Closed 3/8 2700/2720/s850/2830 at .50. STO at 1.95. Thank you @jeffcp66
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 2670/2690-2770/2790 for .90. (IV: 9.6%, SPX 2731)
Closed SPX 1dte spreads for target profit
BTC Mar8 BuPS 2700/2695 @.05 x8. STO @ .3125 x8 (average price)
BTC Mar8 BeCS 2790/2795 expired. STO @ .25 x4
Total profit $300
#spx1dte
Econ Calendar for week of 3/11/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=11&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
AMZN iron condor
Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade (from yesterday). Better premium today.
Sold $AMZN Apr 18 1470/1480/1780/1790 iron condor for 2.85. Leaning just a bit bullish with the down move (short puts at 19 delta/short calls at 15 delta).
A TRADE:
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 40.0 CALLS @1.10
TRADES: Near the money trades.
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 39.0 PUTS @2.05
NTNX STO 3/15/19 35.0 PUTS @.87
I’m optimistic about these stocks, that’s why I’m NTM on these trades.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX March 8th 2700/2680 put spreads for .15. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. I’ll let calls expire.
A TRADE:
NTNX BTO STOCK @34.99
SPX 1-dte roll
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX March 15th 2800/2820 call spreads for 1.15. Sold yesterday for 3.20 as a roll.
Dub Cals closed
#Earnings Sold to close $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.33. Bought yesterday for 1.20. Only a 1-lot… chose not to wait for a pullback when expiration is today and small profit availabe.
Sold to close $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 dbl cal for .04. Bought for .16 on Wednesday.
$DLTR, looking to close ITM call side for .05 or .00
Dub cals didn’t work this week, but losses only totaled .40 plus commissions.
February Jobs Report
#Jobs Way lower than expected. Wages continue uptick.
+20,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 180K expected (lowest since Sept 2017)
Unemployment at 3.8%, down 0.2%
U6 unemployment at 7.3%, down 0.8% (biggest drop in over 20 years)
Wages up 0.4%, 3.4% year over year (highest since April 2009)
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
January revised up from 304K to 311K
December revised up from 222K to 227K
SPX 1dte credit spreads
STO Mar8 BuPS 2700/2695 @ .3125 x8 (average price)
STO Mar8 BeCS 2790/2795 @ .25 x4
Decided not to bore you with the details of building my trades.
#spx1dte
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 8th 2680/2700-2775/2795 condors for 1.10. (IV 13.48%, SPX 2747)
Also, closed April 5th 2525/2550-2925/2950 condors for 1.75. Sold for 2.60 on 2/20 as a roll. I didn’t want to sit with anything right now as I feel a rush lower could be happening in the coming days.
SQ
#ShortPuts – Starter position…
Sold SQ APR 18 2019 65.0 Puts @ 1.30
Overall it’s a welcome selloff the last few days. Getting a lot of my weekly call sales against LEAPS and covered calls back into play…finally
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 40.0 CALLS @1.40
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 39.0 PUTS @2.05 ITM These are usually monthly expirations, but this week only it’s a weekly. ;>)
COST dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.20. As yesterday, filled on TOS but not IB yet.
BIG earnings analysis
#Earnings — $BIG reports tomorrow. Below are details on earnings EIGHT-day moves over the last 12 quarters (since next available options expire in 8 days).
Fri 12/07/2018 BO -29.28% Biggest DOWN
Fri 08/31/2018 BO -10.10%
Fri 06/01/2018 BO +4.54%
Fri 03/09/2018 BO -12.93%
Fri 12/01/2017 BO +0.76%
Fri 08/25/2017 BO -4.59%
Fri 05/26/2017 BO +3.28%
Fri 03/03/2017 BO -1.89%
Fri 12/02/2016 BO +8.09%
Fri 08/26/2016 BO -5.76%
Fri 05/27/2016 BO +18.85% Biggest UP
Fri 03/04/2016 BO +8.88%
Avg (+ or -) 9.08%
Bias -1.68%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 31.65 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 27.41 to 35.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.78 to 34.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.3%): 22.38 to 40.92
Based on Max UP only (+18.9%): 37.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings BIG Jeff-do you have…
#earnings BIG
Jeff-do you have data on BIG? Thanks
#fuzzy I had been doing…
#fuzzy I had been doing well with KR, I actually closed my existing ones just beginning of the week as i had a decent profit in them (I guess luck was part of it…). Now, after that steep drop, i re-entered at 23/25/25 exp Jan 2021. Paid 3$ I BTO 3 contracts to allow me to sell only 2 calls against it, limiting my overall risk in case the stock price would over run my short calls.
LABU Covered Call
#shortcalls
$LABU STO 3/15 57 call at 1.40
#coveredcallcampaign #fallingknife #longputs Trades from…
#coveredcallcampaign #fallingknife #longputs Trades from yesterday and today
WYNN yesterday rolled 140 call to April for 1.25, WYNN tanking today
CPRI yesterday rolled March 22 call to April 12 for .66
EWZ sold short 100 shares for 41.57
MS bought long April 18, 40/35 BeCS
PFE sold April 18, 44 call, was supposed to be a covered call in an IRA, ended up in wrong account, for .26
CVS today sold April 18, 50 put for .86, thanks @ramie77
MET rolled 42.50 call to April 18 for .57
DB bought April 18, 9 put for .62
SPX 4-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX March 8th 2720/2700 put spreads for 2.10. Condors sold Monday for 2.03 as a roll.
Expected move breached this morning so this is too risky to hold longer. Was able to get out near break-even on the bounce. I’ll let the 2830/2850 call side expire.
NTNX May be worth a…
NTNX May be worth a look. 3 days of green open price candles and green volume candles, higher highs and lows. I’m long. Recent falling knife.
TQQQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $TQQQ March 8th 50 calls for .78. Sold for 2.15 on Feb 22nd.
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings — $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57% Biggest UP
March 2, 2016 AC -0.77%
Avg (+ or -) 3.43%
Bias -1.01%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 218.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.75 to 225.25
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 210.52 to 225.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 199.30 to 236.70
Based on Max UP only (+3.6%): 225.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
BURL Down Down Down
Not the bullish expectation I had. Biggest down -9% in many a year.
1 DTE SPX Expired
NTNX While most of the…
NTNX While most of the stocks on my watchlist are down, this stock has been resilient and solid. It’s a recent falling knife. NOT a recommendation, just FYI.
#earnings KR Sold April 18,…
#earnings KR
Sold April 18, 28 straddle fr 2.75
SSYS dub cal
#Earnings As $DLTR ascends to the heavens, leaving my calendar in the dust, I’m trying another cheap one. $SSYS has an average move of 9% but for 20 cents, worth the shot.
I was filled on TOS with a 1-lot for .16. Kind of crazy. The fill shows I sold the Mar08 short call for 1.49 and bought the Mar15 long call for 1.50. Only a one penny spread? Meanwhile, my order at Interactive Brokers is in for .20 and not filling. Go figure.
Bought to Open $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 #DoubleCalendar for .16, trying for more at .20
BURL trade
#Earnings Bought to open $BURL Mar 8th 167.5/172.5/175 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.40. No upside risk…
Max loss debit paid (1.40) if below 167.25.
Breakeven 168.85.
Max gain, 3.60 if Friday pin at 172.50.
Capped gain if over 175.00, 1.10.
LABU
#ShortPuts #IRA – Sold LABU APR 18 2019 45.0 Put @ 2.70
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX March 6th 2760/2740 put spreads for .40. Stop was breached earlier so I watched for a bounce opportunity. Sold yesterday for .95.
Short Puts LABU TNDM
#shortputs
$STO 3/15 59.50 puts at 1.60
$LABU STO 4/18 40 puts at 1.65
KR earnings analysis
#Earnings — $KR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 6, 2018 BO +3.21%
Sept. 13, 2018 BO -9.92%
June 21, 2018 BO +9.74% Biggest UP
March 8, 2018 BO -12.39%
Nov. 30, 2017 BO +6.07%
Sept. 8, 2017 BO -7.50%
June 15, 2017 BO -18.89% Biggest DOWN
March 2, 2017 BO -4.33%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO +3.28%
Sept. 9, 2016 BO +0.63%
June 16, 2016 BO -0.67%
March 3, 2016 BO -7.01%
Avg (+ or -) 6.97%
Bias -3.15%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 28.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.65 to 30.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 26.79 to 30.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 23.36 to 34.24
Based on Max UP only (9.7%): 31.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX Mar6 IC closed for profit
BTC SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
BTC SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4. Sold @ .25. Profit $80
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4. Pending GTC order @ .05
BTO SPX Mar6 BePS 2765/2760 @ .50 x1 to convert one BuPS to bearish fly. Will keep converting BuPS to flies if price continues down.
BTO SPX Mar6 BePS 2765/2760 @ 1.00 x1 to create another fly. Moved BE on downside to SPX 2757, BE on upside to 2765 and overall max profit cut from $80 to -$70.
Flies closed for $120 loss.
Last two BuPS 2760/2755 expired for $50 profit.
Net profit for all spreads $210
LABU
STO September 30 puts @2.45
BURL earnings analysis
#Earnings — $BURL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
I’m posting this one because it has a remarkably bullish response to earnings. Also, in a very long weekly squeeze. Will probably do a bullish butterfly, or maybe try my first #JadeLizard.
Nov. 28, 2018 BO +12.78%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.86%
May 31, 2018 BO +7.11%
March 8, 2018 BO +5.84%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.51%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +1.36%
May 25, 2017 BO +4.90%
March 2, 2017 BO +6.66%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +15.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +3.12%
May 26, 2016 BO +7.44%
March 3, 2016 BO -2.78% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.86%
Bias 5.00%, very strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.81 to 181.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.04 to 179.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 142.83 to 197.17
Based on Max DOWN only (-2.8%): 165.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
NIO BTO STOCK @8.35 Day Trade
ANF closing, DLTR not
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close half of $ANF March 8th 21.5 calls for 3.40 and 3.80. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 2.94. Holding the rest to see how high we can go.
DLTR 95 #DoubleCalendar, front week premium not going down much yet so sitting on this one for awhile.
CRM and SQ
#Earnings Bought to close $CRM March 8th 150/152.5/175/177.5 condors for .23. Sold for 1.15 yesterday.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $SQ Mar 15th 79 calls for 1.00
Short Put PYX
#shortputs
$PYX STO 3/15 25 put at 1.25
$PYX STO 4/18 25 put at 2.01
Trying to get to a high with cannabis premium
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 6th 2740/2760-2815/2835 condors for .95. (IV 9.35%, SPX 2792)
Howdy all. I thought I…
Howdy all. I thought I would pop in to see what y’all are up to. I see MamaCash is doing 11-hour trades. I think I saw her in the Base Camp trading room. Here’s a link if you want to take a 30 day trial for $7. Please let me know if you sign up. www.basecamptrading.com.
ANF straddle, DLTR maybe
#Earnings #LongStraddle Bought $ANF March 8th 21.5 straddle for 2.94. Avg Move on earnings: 14.7%. I need a 13.7% move to breakeven.
Also trying for a #DoubleCalendar on $DLTR. Only if I can get filled for .40. Low probability, since it moves decently, but low risk worth the shot.
TQQQ
STO May 17, 60/65 call spread @ .80 cents on a partial fill.
#earnings Z This took a…
#earnings Z
This took a couple weeks. Feb. 21, sold a March 15, 30/40 strangle for 1.35, with Z around 35. It jumped to a little over 44 and is settling down now below 40. Bought today for .90.
NIO
There is some serious premium in NIO, a $10 Chinese auto stock
A TRADE: Added
SLDB BTO STOCK 11.17
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings — $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
March 2, 2016 BO +3.64%
Avg (+ or -) 14.66%
Bias 2.06%, Positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 21.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.76 to 24.24
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.35 to 24.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 16.36 to 26.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings — $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO +12.77% Biggest UP
March 1, 2016 BO +2.21%
Avg (+ or -) 7.72%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.39 to 101.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 87.67 to 102.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 80.24 to 109.76
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings CRM Yesterday sold April…
#earnings CRM
Yesterday sold April 18, 125/185 strangle for 1.47, bought this morning for .69
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Close TSLA BECS Early
#becs
$TSLA BTC 3/15 335/325 BECS at .60. STO 2/8 at 3.00.
SPX 4-dte roll
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 8th 2700/2720-2830/2850 condors for 2.03. Partial roll for loss taken this morning. (IV 12.34%, deltas .13p, .11c, SPX 2785.
SPX 2dte makes another appearance
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4
Full position on for this round.
I was planning to pause on the ICs due to low vol. Then the low vol went poof. Also, you could say that @hcgdavis made me do it.:-)
#spx1dte
#jadelizards, #lizardpies, #pietrades, #spikedjadelizard, #spycraft
#earnings CRM Sold April 18,…
#earnings CRM
Sold April 18, 125/185 strangle for 1.47, thanks for the data Jeff
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The $VIX just took out the Upside Warning by 1-point. We need to close at 16.97 or higher for this to be a Downside Warning.
SPX 1-dte dream shattered
#SPX1dte Major suckage… Stopped $SPX March 4th 2770/2750 put spread for 4.60. What started as a brilliant #RiskReversal turned out to be my biggest loser since December (about 3.00 loss, after all accounted for).
To be expected once you get comfortable allowing spreads to expire. The first time volatility comes back it will take a bite.
A TRADE:
NTNX STO 3/8/19 32.5 PUTS @.75 Risky, Falling Knife
SPY long trade closed
#LongCalls Plumb forgot I still had some of these, otherwise I would have sold at the the opening highs.
Sold to close $SPY March 8th 277.5 calls for 2.30. Bought for 1.67 (avg price), sold for 3.54 (avg price).
SPX dump
#SPX1dte Wow… huge reversal. Got stuck holding some longs that are now worthless… at least I sold enough to make that side overall profitable. But now my put spread is threatened and SPX has passed my stop level.
Could this be the blow-off top that starts a new down trend?
CVS adding
Sold $CVS Apr 18 55 puts @ 1.05 with the stock at 57.22. Prices are better now.
Adding to my position, short the Apr 18 60 puts.
CRM condor
#Earnings Sold to Open $CRM March 8th 150/152.5-175/177.5 #IronCondor for 1.15. I put the order in earlier and didn’t expect it to drop this much. But still looking okay based on historical moves (analysis posted Friday.)
Biggest UP move: 11.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.4%, Average move: 3.7%. This is trade is +11.5% and -2.9% OTM.
A TRADE: Moth to the flame.
NTNX STO 3/8/19 32.5 PUTS @.75 Risky
SPX 1dte IC
BTC Mar4 2760/2765 BuPS @ .05 x8. STO @ .30. Profit $200
BTC Mar4 2825/2835 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .55. Profit $200
Total profit $400
#spx1dte
Closing NFLX
Bought to close $NFLX Mar 15 335/325 bull put spread for .70. Sold for 2.55 on 2/13.
A TRADE: Moved over VWAP
NTNX BTO STOCK @33.20 Maybe it will work now. Risky though.
A TRADE:
SLDB BTO STOCK @11.14 An add to.
TT Motion In The Markets – Futures
FYI: https://s3.amazonaws.com/tastytradepublicmedia/website/cms/MotionInTheMarkets_MAR2019.pdf/original/MotionInTheMarkets_MAR2019.pdf?mc_cid=9969294415&mc_eid=c66a1885a5
TRADE:
NTNX STC STOCK 33.0 ;>(
SPX 1-dte risk reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Sold first batch of $SPX March 4th 2820/2830 LONG call spreads for 2.40. Bought for .45 on Friday (and financed by short put spreads sold for .75). Index not looking too strong so I may have to bail with the rest soon.
Options Bistro 