NTNX BTO STOCK @34.26 & 33.42 Tanked Friday
Recent Updates Page 264
LABU TNDM Called Away
#shortcalls
$LABU 3/1 60 calls Stock called away. Basis 47.37
$TNDM 3/1 50 calls Stock called away Basis 34.35 Wrote calls on part of position before earnings. Of course earnings were good and stock is now 69.24. Win win for both sides of transaction.
Expired SPX / Roll SQ BUPS / Closed NVDA Strangle
#optionsexpiration
$SPX 2740/2760/2830/2810 IC 1 DTE Thank you @jeffcp66
$NFLX 370 calls (covered)
#rolling
$SQ BTC 4/18 60/70 BUPS and STO 4/18 65/75 BUPS for added a.12 credit. Thank you @ramie77
#earnings
$NVDA BTC 3/15 120/185 straddle @ .20 STO 2/14 for 1.74 Thank you @thomberg1201
Final trades and expirations
#Earnings Sold to Close $VMW #DoubleCalendar final lots for 2.36 and 2.03. Bought for 1.23 yesterday. Avg close price 2.62.
$SPLK splunked out… the only time profit was available was first 5 minutes of the day. Bought for 1.20 yesterday.
Expiring:
$SPX 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
$AZO 860/855 put spreads. Call side closed for .35 on Wednesday. Condor sold for 2.28 on Monday.
$SQ 85 calls, sold for 1.08 on Wednesday.
Lottery tickets for next week:
$BUD 75 long puts
$MSTR 58 and 54 long puts
Closing NUGT short calls
Bought to close $NUGT Jun 21 35 calls @ .35. Sold for 1.01 on 1/30 and 1.20 on 2/20.
Taking around 70% of the profit available, 3 1/2 months early. Who knows what can happen between now and then. I’m out of NUGT completely now so will look to fade another big spike in gold/miners when it happens.
#earnings #assignment AAPL In December…
#earnings #assignment AAPL
In December I was assigned shares on 3 different trades from post earnings put spreads as AAPL went from 220 down to 145 from late October to the December market sell off, my timing being impeccable. Fortunately they were put spreads and the long puts provided significant support. I sold the last of the shares after selling covered calls, actually making a little on each set of shares. Whew
Econ calendar for week of 3/4/19
#Jobs report for February announced Friday, 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=4&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings — $CRM reports Monday at the close. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves are not significantly different)
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27%
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC +4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC +11.03% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.75%
Bias 2.36%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 153.49 to 174.51
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 157.86 to 170.14
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 145.91 to 182.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
Jeff, do you have earnings…
Jeff, do you have earnings data for CRM?
SPX 1-dte, altered
#SPX1dte I’m still in the early stages of this strategy, and I’m testing ways to vary things up based on market conditions. IV for Monday’s options is only 6.83%, which I think is the lowest I’ve seen this year. Selling the standard .06 delta condor isn’t worth the risk (too cheap). This is when I have gone LONG in the past with mixed success. Today I’m trying a risk/reversal set-up. Mondays have been bullish lately, and in general the market feels pretty stuck in a range, so I don’t fear a big drop yet.
Bought to open $SPX March 4th 2820/2830 cal spreads for .45 (long delta .06, SPX 2795)
Sold to Open $SPX March 4th 2770/2750 put spreads for .75 (short delta .11, SPX 2796)
If nothing happens, I’ll make .30. But hopefully we’ll have an early rally toward my call spread and I can close for a profit while put spread expires.
SPX Mar1 ICs closed
BTC all spreads for .05. Total profit $350
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .25 x6
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x4
TRADES:
OSTK BTO STOCK @19.63 Stock is a little wild.
OSTK STO 3/1/19 20.0 PUTS @.60 Will accept stock if “put” to me @19.40
VMW starting to come in
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Closed first batch of $VMX Mar01/Mar08 dbl cals for 2.90. Bought yesterday for 1.30. These higher priced stocks always produce the bigger profits. This winner will easily overtake the small losses in MNST and BUD for the week.
#coveredcallcampaign SCCO Sold April 18,…
#coveredcallcampaign SCCO
Sold April 18, 39.56 call for .40
SPX IC Mar4 trades
STO Mar4 BeCS 2830/2835 @ .30 x4. Sold 2825/2830 @.25 x4 to convert to a 10w @ .55 x4.
BTO Mar4 2835c @ .25 x2 to hedge against a big weekend move to the upside.
STO Mar4 BuPS 2765/2750 @ .30 x8
#spx1dte
Earnings trades
#Earnings Sold to close $BUD 75 call calendar for .07. This one moved farther up today, so profit’s not possible. Closed the call side to avoid assignment.
$MNST I’ll get a small profit out of the 62 calendar, but not moving down enough to make the ATM 58 #DoubleCalendar work. Will be closing the call side to avoid assignment, but will wait until later in case we get a drop.
$VMW This one moved up, but should still turn a small profit.
$SPLK #BrokenWingButterfly Looking for this to rise into the close so I can take profit. It passed through my center strike in the morning but volatility was too wild to close with enough profit.
CVS Falling Knife
Sold $CVS Aug 16 50 puts @ 1.34 with the stock at 58.27.
Strike price is at a 6 year low.
#FallingKnife
MNST double double calendar
Jeff are you still holding, and what is your plan to close
SQ rollup
Rolled $SQ Apr 18 70/60 BuPS up to 75/65 for 1.03 credit. Sold the 70/60 yesterday for 1.65 so total premium collected so far is 2.68.
ADSK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Bought to Close ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ .17 (sold for 3.25)
SPY sales
#LongCalls Sold to close $SPY March 8th 277.5 long calls for 4.00. Bought for 1.72. Still holding one last batch.
Covered Calls NFLX TNDM EVTC / Short Puts WK
#coveredcalls
$TNDM STO 3/15 65 calls at 2.25 It can’t keep going up can it?
$NFLX STO 3/1 370 call at 2.60
$EVTC STO 3/15 30 call at .30
#shortputs
$WK STO 3/15 50 put at 1.70 Trying to build a position at a discount
GPS #earnings This one is…
GPS #earnings
This one is going to hurt anyone with short calls…
REALLY LAST TRADE: ;>)
OSTK STO 3/1/19 21.0 CALLS @.70 Expires tomorrow.
LAST TRADE:
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.5 PUTS @.65 Expires tomorrow.
ADSK Earnings
#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…
Sold ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.25
VMW earnings analysis
#Earnings — $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14%
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%
July 18, 2016 AC +9.04%
April 19, 2016 AC +13.73% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -9.82% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.41%
Bias 2.07%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 173.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.23 to 182.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 163.65 to 182.35
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 149.25 to 196.75
Open to requests for other symbols.
SQ Earnings
#Earnings – Nice bounce today. I’ll take the small winner and move along…
Bought to Close SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 1.65 (sold for 2.76)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 1st 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors for 1.10. Going a bit aggressive with .08 deltas on the shorts… Fridays have been mellow lately. (IV: 9.5%, SPX 2787)
Expiring: Feb 28th condors, sold yesterday for .80.
#fallingknife Does HPQ qualifies for…
Does HPQ qualifies for a #fallingknife ?
Down 18%
#earnings FL STO FL Mar01…
#earnings
FL
STO FL Mar01 50/68 Short Strangle -0.84
SLDB, Hit a new high…
SLDB, Hit a new high today since its big drop earlier this month. Long a full position. Will add on a pull back.
For rKnight52 Just saw your…
For rKnight52 Just saw your post from a few days ago regarding HIIQ. Thank you. TOS had the earnings date as2/27 initially, so when the stock cratered I assumed poor earnings, and not a lawsuit. I appreciate the information. Have a great week.
Arthur K. HONKHONK81
Updates
#pietrades
EOG batch 1 96.5 put rolled out next week to 96 for 0.16 credit. Cb 93.63 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 96.5 rolled out a week for 0.43 credit. CB 93.91 if assigned.
LNG 65.5 rolled out next week to 65 for 0.12 credit . Cb 63.59 if assigned.
TRIP 54 CC. Was assigned early Tues night so sold the 54 cc for next week for 0.96. Cb 53.03 and will let assign if ITM.
XBI 83/86/87 #lizardpies closed for 0.97. Total credit 3.22 over 3-4 weeks
AXLN 125/131/13 #lizardpies closed for 1. Total profit 1.37 over 3 weeks. It took off to the upside.
QQQ 171.5 sold for 0.75.
SQ 75.5 put STO for 0.83 credit for 3/8.
EXAS 3/15 87.5 put sold for 1.15
ERX 22 cc rolled next week for 0.3 credit. Cb 21.23
TQQQ 54 cc at 56.79, need to stay ahead of the rolls.
FAS 57 cc rolled for 0.40 cb now 54.77.
TQQQ 52 cc at 57 cost basis. Will be rolling.
#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled for 0.24 cb now 7.48.
GILD 67.5/69 cb 6.51
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.44 credit. Cb 12.49
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.27. Cb 12.29.
Busy few weeks. Sun is out, headed outside.
PANW adjustment
$PANW I made a mistake yesterday when I legged into what was supposed to be an April iron condor. I erroneously went into March on the bear call spread side and April on the bull put spread side. I got a bit lucky with today’s pullback in the stock since the March options are decaying much faster than April so I was able to realize a quick 50% profit. I took the opportunity to roll the call spread (Mar 15 265/275) down and out to Apr 18 260/270 for 2.16 credit. Position is now an Apr 18 iron condor 230/220 BuPS + 260/270 BeCS. Total credit taken in so far is 4.76.
STX
#CoveredCalls – Rolling to capture the divvy of .63 and will probably let the stock go prior to next earnings unless it really pulls back to a better roll level. Basis 39.10 at that point…
Rolled STX MAR 08 2019 41.5 Calls to MAR 22 2019 41.5 Calls @ .10 credit
SPLK trade
#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly This trade worked last quarter, and with positive bias in $SPLK I like it. Still, the stock is a bit extended so I see it as riskier than last quarter.
Bought $SPLK March 1st 137/142/145 Broken wing CALL butterfly for 1.20. buy (1) 137, sell (2) 142, buy (1) 145
(stock at 137.00 at time of trade)
Trade has no upside risk. Max loss, debit paid (1.20). Max gain: 3.80 (if pin at 142). Capped gain: .80 if above 145. Goal will be to close for profit during the day when price passes through the 142 area. If it explodes higher or gaps lower, trade can be ignored for exercise to cancel out (or, if above 145, close all to avoid exercise fees). BUT if price ends day between 137 and 145, you WILL BE ASSIGNED if you don’t close the necessary options. I can help if you follow this trade.
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 41.0 CALLS @2.60 Delta .44
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.0 PUTS @.50 Delta .26
MNST double double calendar
Jeff are you still holding this?
FL earnings analysis
#Earnings — $FL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +14.90%
Aug. 24, 2018 BO -9.17%
May 25, 2018 BO +20.15%
March 2, 2018 BO -12.72%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +28.16% Biggest UP
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -27.92% Biggest DOWN
May 19, 2017 BO -16.65%
Feb. 24, 2017 BO +9.37%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO +0.60%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +11.04%
May 20, 2016 BO -6.45%
Feb. 26, 2016 BO -4.31%
Avg (+ or -) 13.45%
Bias 0.58%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 52.30 to 64.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.63 to 66.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 42.03 to 74.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX Feb28 IC closed
STO Feb28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x4
BTC Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .05 x8. Profit $210
BTC Feb 28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. Profit $50
BTC Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x6. Profit $150
Total profit $410
#spx1dte
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings — $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +7.73%
Avg (+ or -) 8.05%
Bias 3.80%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.42 to 149.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 126.90 to 149.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 113.31 to 162.69
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX IC 1dte
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .25 x6
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x8. Profit $170
Full position for today.
These narrow-width condors will eventually bite me. For now with low vol/ATR, they’re working well.
#spx1dte
#earnings SQ Yesterday sold April…
#earnings SQ
Yesterday sold April 65/90 strangle for 3.28, bought today for 2.13
SQ Put Spread
Sold $SQ Apr 18 70/60 BuPS for 1.65
MNST double double calendar
Out for flat minus commissions. BTO @ .40. STC @ .40
#dubdubcal
SQ Earnings
#Earnings – Sold SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 2.76
LAST ONE:
OSTK STO 3/1/19 19.5 PUT @1.06
#earnings SQ Sold April 18,… MNST
#earnings SQ
SQ Sold April 18, 60/95 strangle for 3.28
MNST bought March 1/8,54/62 double calendar for .28, thanks Mama and Jeff
ANOTHER:
OSTR STO 3/1/19 22.0 CALLS @1.00 2 Days and 1 hr. to expiration. ;>)
A TRADE:
OSTK BTO STOCK 21.19
OSTK STO 3/1/19 21.0 ITM CALLS @1.40 Expires Friday
SQ calls, earnings
#Earnings #LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ March 1st 85 calls for 1.08. Against my 2020 110 long call LEAPs.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 28th 2735/2755-2820/2835 condors for .80. (IV 10.1%, SPX 2794)
MNST double double calendar
Bot MNST Mar 1/8 62 call cal and Mar 1/8 54 put cal @ .20 (EM strikes)
Bot MNST Mar 1/8 58 call cal and Mar 2/8 58 put cal @ .20 (ATM strike)
Total cost for four calendars: $40
Thanks to @jeffcp66 for continuing to trade this strategy after I abandoned it.:-)
#DubDubCal
BUD trade and earnings analysis
#Earnings — Bought to open $BUD Mar01/Mar08 75 #DoubleCalendar for .48. Looking at the daily chart, BUD is not the king of big moves. I’ve said it all.
$BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -2.98%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO -2.38%
Avg (+ or -) 3.85%
Bias -0.90%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.07 to 78.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 72.11 to 77.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 67.97 to 82.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
MNST trade and earnings analysis
#Earnings — Bought to open $MNST Mar01/Mar08 58 #DoubleCalendar for .23, .246, and .25.
$MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +2.47%
April 29, 2016 BO +12.81%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC -1.74%
Avg (+ or -) 5.55%
Bias 0.31%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.07 to 61.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.78 to 61.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 49.63 to 66.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte closed
BTC SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @ .05 x2. STO @ .35 x2. $60 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .35 x4. $120 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
Total profit $280
#spx1-dte
TRADES:
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.0 NTM CALLS @.65 Just for the premium. Expires in 2.5 days.
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 NTM CALLS @4.50
SPX 1-dte
Building another short-term SPX position
STO Feb28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x4
BTC Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .05 x8. Profit $210
BTC Feb 28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. Profit $50
BTC Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x6. Profit $150
Total profit $410
#spx1dte
TRADES:
HIIQ BTO STOCK @37.75
/NQ and Market Tide
#Scalping – I did not trade this…woulda coulda shoulda…this is the entry I look for. A big move to a round number and the printing of the reversal. Would be a safe entry with stop beyond the “roundy”.
TRADES:
SFIX BTO stock to cover short calls @27.45
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 33.0 PUTS @1.70
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 CALLS @2.90 Stock reported & crashed
TRADES: Yesterday, couldn’t post because…
TRADES: Yesterday, couldn’t post because program wouldn’t let me????
PBYI STO 3/1/19 29.0 CALLS @1.08
SQ STO 3/1/19 72/67 BuPS
PANW call spread
Sold $PANW Apr 18 265/275 bear call spread for 1.49
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Feb 27th 2755/2735 put spreads for .20. Would have allowed to expire but I have to be away from my desk for a time today. Order in to close the 2820 short calls for .05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
WTW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – The incredible becomes “incredibler”. I’ll continue selling 20 -25 cents per week indefinitely. Feels like a member of the family now!
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings — $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC +8.48%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -11.38%
May 7, 2018 AC +7.84%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -27.23% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -20.10%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -1.08%
May 10, 2017 AC +5.58%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -18.13%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC +9.99%
Aug. 5, 2015 AC +10.00% Biggest UP
May 6, 2015 AC -7.90%
Feb. 26, 2015 AC -6.34%
Avg (+ or -) 11.17%
Bias -4.19%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 78.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 72.38 to 84.62
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 69.73 to 87.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.2%): 57.12 to 99.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
AZO closed
#Earnings #IronCondor Bougtht to close $AZO March 1st 940/945 call spreads for .35. Leaving put spread to expire or shorts to close for .05. Condor sold for 2.30 on Monday.
Update on MU
Apparently, as the kids like to say, my maths wasn’t working yesterday.
When I rolled the adjusted position (from Mar 41.50/42 strangle to Apr 40/46 strangle), I hadn’t calculated that I already had a small profit in the position. At that point I wouldn’t normally have rolled since that would have been a defensive move. Should have just closed it out yesterday. Got a few cents more profit today so I decided to close the whole thing out.
Bought to close $MU 4/18 40/46 strangle @ 3.53. Total premium taken in with rolls/adjustments was 3.91, so a .38 overall profit.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2735/2755-2820/2835 condors for 1.10. (IV: 10.67%, SPX 2796)
#earnings GS Took a beating…
#earnings GS
Took a beating on this one. Jan. 15, sold a Feb. 15, 155/175/180/200 IC. rolled to March as GS stayed up. It goes ex-div tomorrow, don’t want to be short 100 shares at 180 with the stock at 200, and have to pay the .80 dividend, negative $836 on everything.
CAT put spread
$CAT gapped down this morning after the downgrade but some buying has come in. Stock has been in an uptrend with higher lows all year. Sold $CAT Apr 18 130/120 BuPS for 1.62.
BIDU
#ShortPuts #IRA – I was looking at May 140-145 but decided to go more aggressively in April and keep the sale prior to next earnings. Nice having the roll/covered call possibility with the extra earnings premium.
Sold BIDU APR 18 2019 150.0 Put @ 2.87
Stepping into Macy’s
Looking at recent support holding after the positive reaction to earnings. Sold $M Apr 18 23 puts @ .72.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings — $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +5.20%
Avg (+ or -) 8.54%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 233.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 217.69 to 248.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.09 to 252.91
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 176.73 to 289.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 