#bups
$GOOGL BTC 6/21 1145/1160 BUPS at total loss. Stock put to me last night. Nightmare!!!
#coveredcalls
$DOVA BTC 6/21 12.5 calls at .10. STO at .73
$TQQQ BTC 6/14 59 and STO 6/7 50 call for .45 credit. Who knew today would be THAT day.
Recent Updates Page 265
#earnings CRM
Sold June 21, 130/170 for 1.10, took a while to fill. Thanks for the data Jeff
SPX 1-dte
Sold to Open $SPX June 5th 2730/2750-2830/2840 condors for .95, IV: 13.53%, SPX 2800.
What a face-ripping day for shorts.
Short squeeze
Had not looked at the market until after lunch, that’s what a true short squeeze looks like 🙂
About time we had a green day
CRM Earnings
#JadeLizard #Earnings – Selling the lizard with the put side at the expected move and the call side nearly at the money with the stock up 4 dollars today. Playing for a slight down move with no upside risk.
Sold CRM JUN 7 2019 142.0/150.0/152.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.90
Closing ANET for 50% profit
Bought to close $ANET 6/21 230 puts @ 1.50. Sold for 3.00 on 5/3
Long Leaps still kicking
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Still holding long leaps, both underwater but cost basis now about zero after all these calls I have sold. I also ended up long some TQQQ stock at 58.00, which I will hold for the eventual recovery.
Sold $TQQQ June 14th 52 calls for 1.15.
Sold $SQ June 14th 64 calls for .97
A TRADE: #Point & Figure…
A TRADE: #Point & Figure Chart. HIIQ is on a buy signal since 27.0.
HIIQ BTO STOCK @28.51 latest of several buys today.
AMBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 5, 2019 AC +3.74%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +18.48% Biggest UP
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC +13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +14.29%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%
June 2, 2016 AC +9.39%
Avg (+ or -) 10.91%
Bias -1.01%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.00 to 44.00
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 44.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 31.06 to 48.94
Based on UP Max only (+18.5%): 47.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX puts closed
#SPX1-dte Two extra roll spreads closed:
BTC $SPX June 5th 2700/2675 put spread for .25. Sold for 2.70 last Wednesday.
BTC $SPX June 7th 2675/2650 put spreads for .60. Sold yesterday for 3.10.
June 7th call spread at 2810 under pressure, but not too worries yet. This is a bear trend rally; at least until it isn’t.
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC +4.13%
Avg (+ or -) 2.91%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 145.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.15 to 153.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 141.76 to 150.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 131.01 to 160.99
Based on DOWN Max only (-4.4%): 139.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX put spread sold to…
SPX put spread sold to offset calls sold this morning.
Sold $SPX Jun 7th 2675/2650 put spreads for 3.10
VXX put spread
Bought $VXX 6/21 32/27 bear put spread @ 2.44. Breakeven 29.56 in 19 days with VXX at 30.82. With all the volatility, the VIX term structure has remained relatively flat (still in a slight contango in the short end of the curve: http://vixcentral.com/).
Getting back in NUGT
Sold $NUGT 9/20 26 calls @ 1.10
A TRADE: Not doing much. Roller Coaster day.
GOOS STO 6/7/19 33.0 PUTS @.75 Near the money. Stop in place. Will only take .25 loss per contract. Only got 2. Risk management. ;>)
TIF earnings analysis
#Earnings $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 22, 2019 BO +3.14%
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.31%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
May 25, 2016 BO +0.06%
Avg (+ or -) 5.68%
Bias 0.94%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.84 to 96.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 84.89 to 95.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 69.05 to 110.95
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.8%): 79.36
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing AMZN put spread for a loss
Bought to close 6/21 1750/1740 bull put spread @ 5.38. Sold for 2.35 on 5/29. Will look to reinitiate something once things stabilize a bit more.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Replacing the call spread that closed this morning:
Sold $SPX June 7th 2810/2835 call spreads for 2.55.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed at the open: $SPX Jun 3rd 2690/2670 put spreads for .10. Condors sold for 1.35 on Friday. I’ll let the 2890 call side expire.
Closed in the pre-market on GTC order: June 5th 2845/2870 call spreads for .25. Sold for 2.80 on Thursday.
Expirations /Assignment
#optionsexpiration
$TQQQ 60 calls Covered by leaps
$TNDM 72 calls Covered
$BA 367.50 calls Covered
$SQ 67.50 calls Covered
$LABU 45 calls Covered
GOOS 53.50 calls Covered. And I am covered by GOOS poop and feathers
#assignment
$FL from 6/21 50/55 BUPS
Has anyone tried/bought the Newest…
Has anyone tried/bought the Newest Indicator from AlphaShark Trade Range?
This is for @Ron, I…
This is for @Ron, I saw no other way for messaging.
Thanks to Jeff for answering some questions about my post, spread, ITM etc.
Hey, just saw your post about GOOS, & ANF, bad trades, sorry, but that’s trading. I’m rolling out the GOOS trade, and holding the ANF until expiration, glad I used risk management in these two trades.
Econ Calendar for week of 6/3/19
#Jobs report for May is Friday at 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=3&month=6&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Surprised this thing isn’t higher today. Rolling out but not up for next week…
Rolled 1 UVXY MAY 31 2019 40.0 Call to JUN 7 2019 40.0 Call @ 2.09 credit (4.39 total credit now)
#rolling TSLA
May 15, sold a June 21, 180/275 strangle for 2.97. Today, rolled the call down to 190. I’ve collected 1124, have a little breathing room. TSLA is about 185.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open June 3rd $SPX 2670/2690-2800/2820 condors for 1.35. (IV 13.37%, SPX 2756)
Rolling IRBT
Continuing to extend the trade and lower basis–rolled my now short 6/21 92.50 puts to 7/19 90 puts @ .25 credit, and 6/21 95 calls to 7/19 95 calls @ 1.60 credit. I looked at using the #lizardpies strategy described by @hcgdavis but for this one the strike availability didn’t allow it (they’re 5 points wide in July right now and I couldn’t get more than 5.00 credit anywhere). Will look at on my next rollout.
Total premium taken in now 7.08 so my breakevens have been lowered (helped by being able to move the put strike down for a credit). Downside breakeven 82.92, upside breakeven 102.08.
UBER bad
#Earnings So much for my speculative play of a #LongStraddle. Seem like the stock really likes 40. Nonetheless it did bounce around today but was unable to sell at the best times because other commitments had me running around the house and town too much.
Sold $UBER 40 straddle for .45. Bought yesterday for 3.15
#Rolling: Sold $UBER Jun 14th 37/43 #ShortStrangle for 1.00. See if I can work that three times and get back the losses.
That loss erases my decent win on $ANF straddle, leaving me flat for the week.
Also, Sold to close $DG call calendar for .10. Bought #DoubleCalendar for .39 on Wednesday. Long 118 put as lottery ticket for next week.
Closing AMGN
Bought to close $AMGN 6/21 175/180 bear call spread @ .94. Sold for 1.55 on 5/28.
EWW
#ShortPuts – Originally was looking out to July near the 40 strike. Moving in a little closer in time and a slightly more aggressive strike…
Sold EWW JUN 28 2019 41.5 Puts @ .87
TLT call spread
Fading the move up in bonds via a 6/21 132/137 bear call spread. Sold for .79.
EDIT: Corrected expiration date to 6/21
TQQQ
STO September 20, 70/75 call spread at .45 cents against my long term leaps.
ULTA Earnings
#Earnings – The Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) worked out pretty good. A little down move but held support.
Bought to Close ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ .20 (sold for 5.12)
TNDM Closed Puts / TSLA Puts / Rolled NFLX Calls / PYX Covered Calls /
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 5/31 69 puts at .75. Had sold for 4..08 on 5/20
#longputs
$TSLA BTO 1/17/2019 185 puts at 33
#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 5/31 367.50 calls and STO 6/7 357.50 calls at 4.01 added premium.
$PYX STO 6/21 22.5 calls at .05
EWW
#ShortPuts – One to watch tomorrow. Five percent tariffs announced tonight on Mexico. This thing rarely trades below 40 and it could easily open down there tomorrow…
#optionsexpiration and actually these are…
#optionsexpiration and actually these are for next week, I rolled everything today.
Sorry I have not had time to post for anyone that was following trades. I will do a better job of at least a weekly update. That is how I trade. 95% of my trades are on Thurs. so a weekly update should keep things up to date.
Lots of trading last few weeks but equity curve flat. Need the trade tariff BS to end. Not good for business 😦
Most of my trades have been converted to #fuzzy or #lizardpies for recovery.
#hedge
/ES 62 DTE 2610/2605 back ratio has made a few $. It’s real purpose is to guard against a 2/6/18 or 8/24/15 event. Hope I don’t need it but would get a lot of cash then. However like an insurance policy I expect to lose on this.
#pietrades
LABU 45 cc at 44.25 cb and 40 cc at 37.13 and another batch of 40 cc at 38.42
TNA 60 cc at 59.69
TQQQ 63 cc at 62.15
AMAT 22 DTE 42 CC at 41.04. Assigned off a 43 put but had some credits as a cushion
#fuzzy
EOG 92.5/90 rolled down to 87.5/87.5 for a little debit. Cost basis 15.44 but because I had made some on the longs it put some cash back in the account.
GILD 65/65 rolled next week for 0.29 credit. Cost basis 5.91. Should not be too much longer for a free trade.
LNG 67.5/67.5 rolled for 0.34 credit. Cost basis 9.99 down from 15.57 at onset only 4 weeks ago.
XBI 80/80/85 rolled for 0.70 and cb 5.57
XBI 80/85 cb 12.50. This is a new batch we are doing live as an experiment. Avg. about 4% cost reduction per week. With monthlies it is larger about 6-8% but the theta decay is slower. 6% per month is 96% per year.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 for cb of 3.78. Freebie soon I hope 🙂 but this is also an experiment that will be taken all the way to expiration in 2021.
GILD 65/65 rolled for 0.28 at 6.45. Same as above but this is tracking the compounded addition of contracts as the rolls spit off cash.
#lizardpies
IBB 103.5 rolled down to 102/102/102.5 for total credit of 0.84. This has been recovered all the way from 107/109 strikes. Shows the flexibility of the #jadelizard as a tactic for adjustments.
IWM rolled down from 150 to 149/149/149.5. Reduced debit from 2.11 to 1.63 as I have recovered this from 155/157 strikes. I gave back a little credit to reduce margin.
SQ 63.5/63.5/64 rolled for total credit of 2.19. Looks like it found a bottom.
XBI 81.5 rolled down to 81/81/81.5 for total credit of 2.35.
LNG 64/64/64.5 rolled down from 66 for 1.68 total credit.
Once I can close a few of these, hopefully next week, will start some 21 DTE #lizardpies and create ladders. Some of them will be skewed to downside to just have steady income with every expiration and let them expire each week. Add new ones every Monday or Thurs.
Stay nimble, I suspect there is more volatility ahead but take advantage of the increased premiums 🙂
Here is an example of a 22 DTE #lizardpies I am looking at.
7 points of downside protection. No risk to upside. Income over 3 weeks, can probably close early for 50% or more profit.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Somehow I plum forgot to put this on, so I did it after the bell.
Sold $SPX May 31st 2720/2740-2825/2845 condors for 1.10. (IV 14.3%, SPX 2788).
Closed SPX IC
Bought to close $SPX 6/10 2720/2695 BuPS + 2900/2935 BeCS @ 3.99. Sold for 7.00 on 5/23.
UBER straddle
#Earnings This is speculative because $UBER has not previously posted earnings, but my guess is this stock will move more than $3.00 (7.5%) on earnings. $LYFT moved over 10% on its first report.
So I’m buying a #LongStraddle. I’m going to try to leg in, which is often a mistake for me, but trying any way.
Just now bought $UBER May 31st 40 call for 1.45.
Order in to buy 40 put for 1.50, banking that stock will rise a bit from here. If not, I’ll buy the 39.5 put instead.
UVXY
ULTA Earnings
Modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) with some downside protection and no upside risk. Breakeven down near the 200ma and near the average move of the stock on earnings.
Sold 1 ULTA MAY 31 2019 280/305/340/345 @ 5.12
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Plugging away…
Bought to Close REGN MAY 31 2019 325.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.00)
Sold REGN JUN 14 2019 320.0 Call @ 4.10
T
#ShortPuts – Recently had all of my stock called away (again). Looks to be pulling back into congestion so reloading at the 50ma. Ex dividend on July 9th and earnings on July 24th so I’d like to be back in it again by then so…
Sold T JUL 05 2019 31.5 Puts @ .53
Still 16.35 percent annualized if I don’t get the stock…
SPX 1-dte rolls
SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 5th 2845/2870 call spreads for 2.80. Offsetting put spreads sold yesterday.
BTC May 31st 2725/2700 put spreads for .35. Sold for 2.10 on May 21.
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC +9.10% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.16%
Bias 0.37%, tiny positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 325.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 300.92 to 349.08
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 304.98 to 345.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 282.36 to 367.64
Based on UP Max only (+9.1%): 354.58
Open to requests for other symbols.
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57%
Avg (+ or -) 3.79%
Bias -0.52%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.65 to 252.35
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 233.31 to 251.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 221.69 to 263.31
Based on UP Max only (+5.1%): 254.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX Campaign
#spxcampaign #optionsexpiration
$SPX 2750/2770/2850/2865
$SPX STO 6/5 2675/2700 BUPS at 2.25 Thank you @jeffcp66
UBER earnings
#Earnings $UBER reports its first earnings tomorrow after the bell. Expected move +/- 2.82 by Friday.
SPX
Just one trade today -#SPX1dte STO $SPX 2755/2770 5/29 BuPS @ 1.1 & Held to expiration.
Not a very comfortable day.
New VXX put debit spread
Bought $VXX 6/21 31/26 bear put spread @ 2.51. Breakeven in 24 days 28.49 with VXX currently at 29.81. Looking for 50% profit.
DG dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $DG May31/Jun07 118 #DoubleCalendar for .38 & .39.
JNJ July puts
Selling momentum seems to be slowing, showing some life on the intraday charts. Sold $JNJ 7/19 120 puts @ 1.23 with the stock at 130.09. Delta 18. Strike price below the 12/24/18 low.
AMZN put spread
Sold $AMZN 6/21 1750/1740 bull put spread @ 2.35. Short strike at 28 delta, and below the 200 day moving average.
TRADES:
GOOS STO 5/31/19 36.0 CALLS @.80 & .85 Expires in 2+ days
ANF STO 6/7/19 18.0 PUTS @.41 NTM
ANF STO 6/7/19 19.0 PUTS @.87 ITM
A bounce in oil?
Got pretty extended to the downside. Time to get back to fading the triple leveraged commodity ETFs.
Sold $DRIP 9/20 21 calls @ 1.55
DG earnings analysis
#Earnings $DG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 14, 2019 BO -7.49%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO -6.80%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO +4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO +2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO +6.54% Biggest UP
March 16, 2017 BO +0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO +4.61%
Avg (+ or -) 5.99%
Bias -2.79%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 119.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.81 to 125.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 111.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 98.03 to 139.97
Based on UP Max only (+6.5%): 126.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing CPRI
Yesterday sold a June 21, 33.50/45 strangle for 1.33. Bought today for .75 before it really dropped off. Thanks to Jeff for the data.
SPX duck, stop and roll
BA put spread
Sold $BA 6/21 340/330 bull put spread @ 1.30
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 6, 2019 BO +5.11%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO +12.77% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.96%
Bias -1.08%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 96.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 89.87 to 103.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 88.82 to 104.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 81.50 to 111.50
Based on UP Max only (+12.8%): 108.82
Open to requests for other symbols.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Avg (+ or -) 8.79%
Bias -1.07%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 212.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 194.69 to 230.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 193.81 to 231.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 161.18 to 263.82
Based on UP Max only (+17.2%): 249.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
ANF closing
#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ANF May 31st 25 puts for 5.25. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 3.23.
SPX Campaign / BA Long Calls / GOOS AMD Covered
#spxcampaign
$SPX 5/28 1 DTE expired worthless
$SPX STO 5/29 2750/2770/2850/2865 @1.25 Thank you @jeffcp66
#longcalls
$BA BTO 1/17/2020 380 calls at 21.50
#coveredcalls
$GOOS STO 5/31 53.50 calls at 1.45
$AMD STO 6/7 28.50 calls at .88 Thank you @honkhonk81
SPX calls closed
#SPX1dte Closing right at the bell on GTC order: $SPX May 31st 2885/2910 call spreads for .25. Sold on Friday for 2.75.
#earnings #CPRI
Sold June 21, 33.50/45 strangle for 1.33. Thanks for the info Jeff.
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Replacing some closed last week…
Sold 1 UVXY JUN 14 2019 40.0 Call @ 2.20
Sold 1 UVXY JUN 21 2019 42.5 Call @ 2.30
CSX
#ShortPuts – Starter position the week prior to next earnings and near the 200ma…
Sold CSX JUL 05 2019 72.5 Put @ 1.30
ANF straddle
#Earnings Bought to open $ANF May 31st 25 #LongStraddle for 3.23. Needs a 12.9% move. Avg has been 16.1%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte sold $SPX May 29th 2750/2770-2850/2865 condors for 1.05 (IV 13.88%, SPX 2812.
Also, in smaller account sold 2765/2770-2850/2855 condors for .45.
CPRI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CPRI (formerly $KORS) reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. Feb 2019 is from symbol CPRI, and the remainder are under symbol KORS.
Feb. 6, 2019 BO +11.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 BO -14.62% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 BO +6.72%
May 30, 2018 BO -11.44%
Feb. 7, 2018 BO +1.02%
Nov. 6, 2017 BO +14.69%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO +21.54% Biggest UP
May 31, 2017 BO -8.51%
Feb. 7, 2017 BO -10.80%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC -3.97%
Aug. 10, 2016 BO -2.79%
June 1, 2016 BO +6.62%
Avg (+ or -) 9.50%
Bias 0.81%, slightly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 39.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.65 to 43.35
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.29 to 42.71
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 30.60 to 47.40
Based on DOWN Max only (-14.6%): 33.30
Open to requests for other symbols.
#shortcalls #closing UVXY
May 23, sold May 31, 49 call for .45, channeling my inner Iceman and Fuzzball. Bought today for .10. UVXY is a margin hog in my account, freed up over 2K in margin for the .10.
AMGN call spread
Sold 6/21 175/180 bear call spread @ 1.55
SPX
SPX <1-DTE
BTC $SPX 2850/2865 May 28 BeCS @0.05. STO @1.20 earlier today. #SPX1dte
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
Avg (+ or -) 16.06%
Bias 3.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 25.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 21.96 to 28.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 21.20 to 29.30
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 19.22 to 31.28
Based on DOWN Max only (-20.3%): 20.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
T
Jeff what is your thought process on your T puts? CSP? in between divi?
Thanks
