$DUST #ShortCalls – Added to positions. Couldn’t resist. Of course the last time I said that with NUGT a year ago I got crushed. So I’m staying as small as possible.
All are the highest available strike prices with the stock at 37.27, unchanged from the close.
Sold 1 DUST Apr 21 2017 53.0 Call @ 2.35
Sold 1 DUST Jun 16 2017 65.0 Call @ 4.40
Sold 1 DUST Jan 19 2018 90.0 Call @ 7.20
Edit: It seems I was a bit early ….
@fibwizard are you still using the ST_Launchpad. I’m getting ready to go buy it if you still think this is a valuable indicator to use.
VIX was up with a huge up day on Wednesday. Then, today was the biggest down day in a month for SPX, and VIX was down too. It is bizarro world.
Invert the SPX chart, and yesterday’s spike down looks like capitulation selling. Could we have seen capitulation buying? Was that all of the shorts finally throwing in the towel, thus marking a top?
$NUGT #ShortPuts – Sold a couple of put positions late in the day with the stock at 8.25.
Lowest available strikes.
Sold NUGT Mar 24 2017 7.0 Puts @ 0.37
Sold NUGT Mar 31 2017 8.0 Puts @ 0.92
#shortputs
$SVXY STO 4/21 95 put @ 2.80
$SVXY STO 4/13 85 Put @ 1.30 Thank you @jsd501
$CBI #Short Put Bought to close March 3rd 32 Puts @ .05. Originally sold at 0.45. Thanks guys for this earnings trade.
STO April 13, 85 puts @1.30
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – No time value left in these so rolling and collecting additional premium.
Rolled this week’s 120.5/113 inverted strangles out two weeks for .54 credit.
Position is now March 17 monthly 120.5/113.0 inverted @ 6.05 credit.
$UVXY #Short Calls #ContangoETFs Sold to open March 17th 33 Calls at 0.36 when $UVXY was at 21.51. This replaced the March 3rd calls I took off.
#SPXcampaign STOPPED: Bought to close $SPXPM March 17th 2420/2445 call spreads for 4.25. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 4.20 on Feb 23rd. Will roll once I see the next strong move up or down.
Sold to Open $SPX March 31st 2285/2260 put spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2388.
$UVXY #Short Calls. BTC March 03rd 27 Calls @ 0.03. Decided to not wait until OpEx for the pennies.
Possible #FallingKnife – IRS investigation?
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 3/24 2455/2430 BECS @ 3.50 STO 2/21 @ 1.75.
Still trying to get a better price to close $SPX 3/10 2390/2365 BECS
Sold $DUST Mar 31 50 calls @ 1.10. Highest strike.
STO April 14, 95 put @2.25, thanks to Fuzzball for the alert.
#Rolling #ShortStrangles #ShortStraddles – With all the good news for biotech coming from the big speech, I’m making a pretty aggressive roll. I’ve already rolled this put up once and doing it again.
Rolled March 17th 360 put up to 380 @ 6.08 credit.
New position is now the March 17th 380.0 straddle @ 20.15. Hoping we just grind around right here for a couple weeks…
#BullPutSpreads – He was talking this one up yesterday so taking a high reward, low risk shot.
Sold GILD APR 21 2017 72.5/70.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 1.54
#IRA #ShortPuts – In the “SVXY only” account, adding one at the new weekly available today. As the front week rolls off add a new one at about the 45 day mark. Nice weekly income while waiting.
Sold 1 SVXY APR 13 2017 95.0 Put @ 2.25
$UVXY #ShortCalls – Sold 1 UVXY Jan 19 2018 60.0 Call @ 5.60 with the stock at 21.64 this morning. Highest available strike.
$SVXY #ShortPuts – Sold SVXY Mar 10 2017 100.0 Puts @ 0.31. Adding these for next week with the stock at 124.77.
#Earnings BTC $BBY March 3rd 42 puts for .05. Sold Tuesday for .97 and 1.00.
#earnings
PANW Have an IC, puts are 129/135, expires tomorrow, trying to decide to take the $600 loss or the stock with a cost basis of 123(right now anyway), currently at 117, up almost 2 from yesterday’s close
#SPXcampaign Too many trades and rolls yesterday to post. Let me know if you have questions on any of my or your positions.
The Webinar on this campaign has been delayed as I refine the strategy based on recent experience with extremely bullish markets. Yesterday was more evidence that work is needed!
Thanks again to @jeffcp66.
The CBOE presentation he recently highlighted was good for me. Below are my quick notes taken during the talk. A lot of it is basic, but basic is my middle name. Tried to copy and paste the PDF of the slides. Did not work.
Notes on CBOE presentation on High Probability Trading
Credit Spreads
Rule of Thumb
Use delta to see probability of success in a trade. If delta is .31 then 31% chance of success. Less than fifty is high probability of success for selling options.
Don’t sell if there are earnings during the spread timeframe
Exposure of credit spreads
Delta Direction
Vega Volatility
Use 2 to 6 weeks duration for credit spreads
Out of money spreads. Shorter time frame has higher theta decay and better for profits. Longer the time more uncertainty.
Low VIX makes selling premium more difficult. Elevated volatility increase probability of success and higher payback.
Hard to find resistance in this market. Call credit spreads more difficult to find.
Collect at least 10% of the spread width.
Typical max profit target is 70%. Full Monty implies a poorer risk/reward vis a vis black swans.
$MYL #ShortPuts – Sold MYL Jul 21 2017 35.0 Puts @ 0.57. Congress has moved on to other things and the earnings/revenue numbers were good.
STO April 7, 80 puts @0.76 cents
I find it notable that with as strong as the market is today, and over the past 2 weeks, that $UVXY is really hanging tough. S&P is up 100 points and $UVXY has at least temporarily stopped making new lows. I’m guessing that with the market going straight up, some people might be starting to feel “a little” fear as the $VIX has been creeping higher with the market going higher.
STO June 35 puts @1.45
$DUST #ShortCalls #ShortPuts – not really a strangle but the risk is balanced at least
Sold DUST Jun 16 2017 65.0 Calls @ 3.20 – highest available strike
then
Sold DUST MAR 24 2017 23.0 Puts @ 0.50
Sold DUST MAR 31 2017 22.0 Puts @ 0.55
Sold DUST Apr 7 2017 22.5 Puts @ 0.70 – lowest available strike
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Another little weekly dividend…
Bought to Close TLT MAR 3 2017 122.5 Calls @ .01 (sold for .30)
Sold TLT MAR 10 2017 120.0 Calls @ .62
Hey guy’s, $TLT and $TBT are tied to the 20+yr bonds. Do you know of an equivalent ETF for the 10yr?
#Earnings Bought to close $CBI March 3rd 32 puts for .05. Sold yesterday for .40 and .45.
#IRA – Booking this one with plenty of time to sell again. Looks due for a pullback…
Bought to Close IBB JUN 16 2017 225.0 Put @ .95 (sold for 4.00)
11am Entered YM long at 21080, as the ticks gapped up, and YM broke out of sideways box
11:15 Exited YM trade at 21160, as YM made a new high to 21162 and pulled back..
Gain of 80 Points
STO June 40 puts @2.84
STO September 35 puts @1.95
#longcalls
$LOW STC 3/17 80 call @2.15 BTO @ 1.00 on 2/15
Closed my Mar 17’s
15-Feb Sell 2 Mar 17 2260 puts $5.70 $1,138.00
1-mar buy 2 Mar 17 2260 puts -$1.70 -$340.00
Gain 71%
Closes out Feb Trade month with a 5% return
$SPX BTC 3/3 2110/2210 BUPS @ .05 97% profit Thanks again @fibwizard
#SPXcampaign STOPPED, bought to close $SPX March 16th 2415/2440 call spreads for 5.30. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 4.45 on Feb 15th.
#CondorRoll: Sold SPX March 24th 2315/2340/2450/2475 condors for 5.35.
Bought to close March 16th 2220/2195 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Feb 14th.
I will be traveling to Boston, Providence, NYC, and Milwaukee from April 12-25. Anyone in or near these cities want to meet up for a Bistro-confab?
#spxcampaign Thank you @jeffcp66
$SPX STO 3/31 2495/2470 BECS @ 1.40
$SPX STO 3/31 2295/2320 BUPS @ 2.80
#shortcalls
$UVXY STO 3/3 23 calls @ .25 Thank you @vxxkelly
Adding at the highest strike again…not selling the strangle yet.
Sold 1 SVXY JAN 19 2018 250.0 Call @ 4.45
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 24th 2430/2455 call spreads for 4.40. Sold for 1.45 on Feb 21st.
#CondorRoll Sold to Open SPX March 31st 2295/2320/2465/2490 condors for 4.60.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX March 6th 2315/2290 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.00 on Feb 21st.
Sold to Open SPX March 31st 2470/2495 call spreads for 1.40.
More call spread stops happening today.
#FallingKnife – Possibly….
#CoveredCalls – Rolling out and up. Keeping a little downside protection while giving the stock a little room for a nice profit.
Rolled this week’s 120 calls to March 17th 124’s @ even.
Mid on this was a .20 debit but I put it in at even and filled immediately…
STO Mar 3 $23 calls @ $0.27
Making a small bet that this morning is the worst of it. Sold $PANW Apr 21 105 puts @ 1.60.
#Earnings Closed both legs of the strangle for .05 each. $DLTR March 3rd 69.5/87 sold yesterday for .95
BBY bobbing around my 42 puts
CBI holding above my 32 puts
PANW – ugh – first big earnings-trade miss of the quarter.
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, bought to close $SPX March 1st 2340/2315 put spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 4.10 on 2/21.
Fidelity lowered my brokerage down to $3.95 per trade plus .40 cents on options.
Good Morning – Jeff we have some serious management to do on PANW. Suggestions please!
I’m looking to roll this out to March 31st. Shows a .75 cr, but unlikely to get that amount.
Long overdue update to the SPX Chart… congrats if you can decipher all of the roll-arrows.
The VIX hit highest high since 1/31 and highest low since 1/19.
#spxcampaign (knock off version)
$RUT 2/28 1310/1335 BUPS @100 % profit
#shortputs
SVXY Mar 17 2017 85.0 Puts @ 0..48 Thank you @optioniceman
$SVXY #ShortPuts – Some of these are covered by short stock
Sold SVXY Mar 3 2017 104.0 Puts @ 0.20
Sold SVXY Mar 3 2017 108.0 Puts @ 0.44.
These expire in 3 days
STO March 17, 80 put @0.30 cents
Lunch time Moves
11am Shorted YM at the 810 level as ES, Ticks and indexes converged …
11:30 Exit at 770, as ticks hit -1200,
gain 40 points
11:35 Long YM at 780, after Ticks hit -1200, and a bounce of the Mid PP..
12:00 Exit trade at the 810, for 30 points, as price comes back to the 34ma and 61% fib retrace
gain 30 points
STO March 17, 95 put @0.95
STO March 24, 95 put @1.40
STO March 31, 95 put @1.40
Not a #FallingKnife trade but it has that feeling.
Sold $KMX Jul 21 52.50 puts @ 1.26 with the stock at 64.39.
I like this stock long term so I would likely take assignment in July in the event it drops another 20% by then.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 28th 2365 short calls for .55, with SPX at 2361 and 96 minutes left to trade. Since the market has been rallying at day’s end quite often, using this dip to get out cheaply. Sold as the 2365/2390 spread on Feb 14th for 2.05.
$DUST #Sh0rtCalls – First the stock dipped to 31 than rallied back to 34
Sold DUST Apr 21 2017 53.0 Calls @ 1.40
Sold DUST Jun 16 2017 65.0 Calls @ 2.70.
Both are the highest available strike prices.
$SVXY #ShortPuts – sold these on the spike down to 122. Less than 3 weeks to expiration.
Sold SVXY Mar 17 2017 85.0 Puts @ 0.52
Sold SVXY Mar 17 2017 80.0 Puts @ 0.34
$UVXY #ShortCalls – These also expire Friday
Sold UVXY Mar 3 2017 27.5 Calls @ 0.20 with the stock at 22.05.
Sold UVXY Mar 3 2017 27.0 Calls @ 0.29 with the stock at 22.05.
$UVXY #ShortCalls – Sold UVXY Mar 3 2017 26.5 Calls @ 0.33 with the stock at 22.50. These expire Friday
Sold $DUST Apr 7 (weekly) 50 calls @ 1.12 and 1.13. This is the new highest strike in 4/7.
Bought to close $EWW Mar 17 42/48 strangles @ .38. Sold for 1.13 on 1/24.
Initiating a position in April:
Sold to open $EWW Apr 21 43/49 strangles @ 1.13
Lowest NYSE $TICK since Jan 19th.
#Earnings Sold to Open $DLTR March 3rd 69.5/87 strangles for .95.
THREE-DAY moves: Biggest UP move: 13.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -12.1%, Average move: 6.3%. Bias: +1.8%. These strikes are -9.6% and +13.1%. Slightly bullish.
#Earnings Sold to Open $BBY March 3rd 42 puts for .97. THREE-DAY moves: Biggest UP move: 22.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.2%, Average move: 7.0%. This strike is -5.7%. Bullish position. BBY has solidly positive bias on earnings reports.
Rolled March 3, 835 calls to March 17 840 calls for 1.30. One day these will go down and I will be able to let them expire.
STO January 55 puts @4.45
#Earnings Sold to Open $PANW March 3rd 135/170 strangles for 1.35. Biggest UP move: 10.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -13.2%, Average move: 7.0%. These strikes are +11.2% and -11.7% OTM.
#Earnings Sold $CBI March 3rd 32 puts for .40. Biggest UP move: 15.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.2%, Average move: 6.3%. This trade is -5.5% OTM. Not a big mover, and with an upside bias at earnings.
PCLN WOW –
The CBOE is where I first learned a lot of my initial options education. They have many archived webinars and also frequent free live ones, like this one tomorrow. Follow this link to register: http://www.cboe.com/education/webcasts
