Adding a January position to what has now become a short put ladder.
Sold $UA Jan 15 2016 70 put @ 1.20
I am now short the following puts:
Dec 80
Jan 70
Apr 65
Recent Updates Page 547
Buying a put calendar in…
Buying a put calendar in GMCR for earnings. Nov./Dec. at the 30 strike for approx. 50 cent debit. Will change it to a put credit spread later if GMCR doesn’t go down to cover the costs of the Dec. put.
XOP short puts
A small position to take advantage of the high IV rank (66). Strike is at the late Sep lows.
Sold $XOP Dec 18 32 puts @ .47
SPX put roll
#SPXcampaign #Rolling STO $SPX Nov 27th 1965/1940 put spreads for 1.30, as a partial roll of spreads stopped out last week.
STO Dec 4th 2140/2150 BeCS @ 0.45 when the S&P was trading at 2059. Another cautious trade. 2140 Delta @ .06.
DUST in the wind
#ContangoETFs STO $DUST Jan 45 calls for 1.15. Will add more if premium rises.
$SPX STO Nov 31st 1930/1940 BuPS @ 0.40. cautious starter position. This was filled this morning when the S$P was trading @ 2054
SPX call spread #2
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 17th 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.25. Second call spread for the week, 20 points higher than yesterday. I won’t worry about defending these unless we break through all-time high at 2134.
$SPX #spxcampaign STO Dec 19…
$SPX #spxcampaign
STO Dec 19 2150/2160 BeCS for 1.00
These are well past the highs and delta less than 0.1.
Got these earlier this morning, just now able to post. Could have waited and gotten a more, but this works.
STO SPX DEC2 15 2145/2170…
STO $SPX DEC2 15 2145/2170 BeCS (12/11/2015) @1.35
$UVXY
STO Nov 20 $25 puts @ $0.21
SVXY…I’ll keep shorting you until I’m wrong
$SVXY – I’ve got enough short puts that I can hope these get in trouble. Long enough XIV in my 401k that I can really hope these get in trouble!
Sold SVXY DEC 18 2015 65.0 Calls @ 1.55
NFLX Short Puts
$NFLX Selling some additional premium to offset short call exposure.
Sold $NFLX Dec 11 (weekly) 100 puts @ 1.27
Good morning…
Another day rocketing higher? Looks that way. I have been backtesting the $VIX warning signals, and I have not found a downside warning that triggers without a subsequent correction in the $SPX (I have tested 1999 thru 2011 thus far). Sometimes, the correction may come weeks later, or sometimes it may be only a decent pullback rather than “correction.” But nonetheless, I am staying on watch for more downside in the days and weeks to come after Friday’s Warning.
Signs that we should reset the clock would be either a new $VIX low (below 12.80) or a new $SPX high (2134). Also, a firm break of the recent SPX high (2116) or a close below the most recent base for the VIX warning (Wednesday’s close of 16.05) I believe would mean relative safety. This is a new indicator and our first time working with it in real-time. So every day is an education.
Monthly expiration is this Friday, and it could be playing a role in this rally. Seeing what happens next week will be interesting.
SPX pre-market call spread
#SPXcampaign In pre-market (4:34am ET) STO $SPX Dec 4th 2130/2155 call spreads for 1.20. This is actually my second regular call spread for this expiry, given that I only sold half my normal amount a couple weeks ago. Staying at or above all-time highs, and above the most recent swing high.
Today’s Stock trades
These are the stocks that I bought today:
$AZO, $BMY, $FB, $NKE (add), $SBUX (add)
All provided good entries.
Kelly
This is what I saw…
This is what I saw today on the SPX; I’ll try to post a chart each day after the close. The idea is to keep a track record of what I see and how I’m trading it.
BTO PFE NOV4 32.5 Call…
BTO PFE NOV4 32.5 Call 1.06. Unusual Call option activity 30,000 today. Thought I would tag along
$SPX call spread
#SPXCampaign Sold Dec 11 2140/2165 BeCS @ 1.20. Short strike has a delta of 07 and is outside 1 standard deviation (2135), and above the all-time high.
$SVXY #vxxgame This morning bought…
$SVXY #vxxgame
This morning bought $SVXY @ 52 and STO Nov 20th 53 P @ 2.00 and 57 P @ 1.15.
$NFLX rollout
Rolling this week’s puts up to 30 delta strike for more premium.
Bought to close $NFLX Nov 20 100 puts @ .25 (sold for 1.20 on 10/30/15)
Sold to open $NFLX Nov 20 108 puts @ 1.27
Credit: 1.02
$SPX spread #spxcampaign STO Dec…
$SPX spread #spxcampaign
STO Dec 11 2130/2140 BeCS at 0.80.
My account not as large as some, so have to take these in smaller bites.
STO Dec 11 LNKD 250/262.5…
STO Dec 11 LNKD 250/262.5 BeCS at $3.64. Stop at 252.33
C’mon silver…I dare ya!
$ZSL $AGQ – I’m so tired of carrying this ZSL ITM bear call spread I’m once again daring silver to go up. This worked great this month being short decent size positions of 38 and 40 calls. If Janet doesn’t raise these should get in trouble…hopefully!
Sold AGQ DEC 18 2015 33.0 Calls @ .57
$UVXY
Made several trades today once it was clear that we weren’t headed for another spike of volatility.
STO $UVXY Dec 4 $65 calls @ $.91
STO $UVXY Dec 18 $95 calls @ $1.09
STO $UVXY Nov 20 $53 calls @ $0.48 (already short $45 calls)
$NFLX Short Puts
Selling some additional premium to offset short call exposure.
Sold $NFLX Dec 4 (weekly) 100 puts @ 1.55
WMT bearish trade
#Earnings – this is NOT my normal earnings trade, but with market volatility I do not feel like shorting options on earnings, especially because there isn’t a lot of premium in many of these companies reporting. But much of retail is very bearish, dropping further on earnings. So I bought 3 $WMT Nov 20th puts for .34, a $100 bet that this could crater down toward 50 when it reports tomorrow morning.
#Eminis – Looking to scalp…
#Eminis – Looking to scalp 10 or 12 points or if it moves against me adding it to a core short position…helps to protect the naked puts of my strangles as well.
SOLD ES @2028.50…order in to cover at 2016.50 or at breakeven on a rally.
#Eminis – The experiment continues….
#Eminis – The experiment continues. The market weakness has finally allowed me to make some adjustments. Covered a couple short contracts earlier for even after riding them all the way up and back down. This left a few uncovered puts that I rolled down and out to Jan Feb Mar and Apr in 1650-1750 range. Now that I’ve got a little room on the short side I’m legging into some strangles when we get a little strength.
Starting with this:
SOLD /ES JAN 16 2100 CALL @ 18.00
Paired with a 1900 put that’s only worth 6.00 making total value of the strangle 24.00 so max gain of $1200 per strangle. Had I been more patient on the put side I believe these strangles could easily bring 30 points total. This position ties up about 8 thousand margin per strangle with the option to take a long or short position if they get ITM as well as rollability.
I’ll be looking to add the call sides further out if we rally into the end of the year…
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STO Dec 11 SPX 1915/1900…
STO Dec 11 SPX 1915/1900 at $1.50, will get out if price goes below 2018.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign STO Dec 17th $SPX 2145/2170 call spreads for 1.25
Good morning..
Quite a Friday the 13th we had…. we got our $VIX warning signal, and it looked like it could be a repeat of Aug 20-24… however, a significantly more minor one; $SPX was only down 1.12% for the day. Then the Paris attacks instilled fear, but because they happened Friday, with the weekend to digest, it was anyone’s guess what Monday would look like.
For now, we STILL have an active warning from Friday, so be on the lookout. VIX would need to fall at least back below Wednesday’s close of 16.05 before I would say we can ease off the brakes. SPX vol is high so selling new spreads will get you fairly far OTM; just proceed cautiously. Call spreads should be above all-time high of 2135. I will look to sell my normal 5-week out spreads for Dec 17th before I consider putting rolls on from spreads that were stopped last week.
/ES #Eminis Been out of…
/ES #Eminis Been out of town last few days so no time to post…covered a couple Eminis tonight at 2010.50. Sold them Friday near the close at 2015.00 as soon as I heard about the Paris tragedy. Short a few more at higher prices as a hedge for a fairly big SVXY short put position. Lots of bang for your buck with these things as protection. Had some covered by Dec 2000 puts that I’ll roll down and out if I decide to uncover all of the shorts.
Posting another chart from August….
Posting another chart from August. 
I lost money during that move, because I didn’t pay attention to my indicators. I was trading in “Automatic” since the market had been so kind to me during the consolidation. I should have made a bunch, but missed all the signals.
Options Expiration 11/13/15
A light week this week:
Expiring
$SPX 11/13/2015 2120/2145 call spreads
$SPX 11/13/2015 2140/2165 call spreads
$SVXY 11/13/2015 65 calls (covered)
Have a great weekend everyone.
Options Expiration 11/13/15
Max profit:
$SPX 2110/2120 call spread
Options Expiration 11/13/15
Followers who do not have Posting privileges can respond to the Post with their expirations
Expiring with 100% of max profit:
$NXPI 75 puts
$NXPI 85 covered call
$UVXY 25 put
$VLO 67 & 68 covered puts
$SPX 2125/2145 call spreads
$SPX 2150/2175 call spreads
No assignments. Thanks everyone, have a great weekend!
If you’d like Posting privileges, please email me or reply here and I will invite you.
I posted the wrong price…
I posted the wrong price on those 1800 puts it was .65 cents. Still 21,000 traded.
Closed positions
I closed some of my short options positions for profit in $NUGT, $ZSL, $TDG. I closed some options and stock for losses in $KOLD, $NXPI, $VLO (I intend to roll the KOLD positions once the market settles down). Took off the risk to manage margin should we have an ugly Monday.
SPX trade didn’t fill but…
SPX trade didn’t fill but there may be other opportunities next week. They traded a boatload of puts at the 1800 strike for .80 cents or so.
…and another SPX stop
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 27th 1950/1925 put spreads for 2.75. Sold for 1.70 on Oct 23rd (part of a roll).
$SPX new call spread
#SPXcampaign Don’t normally sell call spreads on a day like this, but I still needed another for Dec 11th, and I’m still able to get one right at all-time highs. If next week is more down, it will be fine. If we rebound, the relief from put spreads will make up for any pain on this one. It is my only call spread below 2160.
Sold to open $SPX Dec 11th 2130/2155 call spreads for 1.25.
SPX trade in case the market gets ugly this afternoon
I’m trying a 1860/1870 SPX put credit spread for next week for .45 cents in case the market gets super ugly into the close. This is currently above market.
SVXY
This morning I rolled my 50 puts that expire today out to November 27, 45 strike for .96 cents. In 9 more weeks I will have the strike price down to zero. LOL
$SPX stopping Dec 11th spread
#SPXcampaign Bought to close Dec 11th 1920/1895 put spreads for 3.20. Sold for 1.25 on Wednesday.
With warning signal in effect and continuing downside, I am closing non-SPX positions as well, to keep margin clear for a possible Monday crash. I don’t really expect it, but the end of this week is looking like a minor version of August 20-24.
$VIX steadily rising, $SPX steadily…
$VIX steadily rising, $SPX steadily decreasing for last two hours. We are getting a retest of the 20.05 signal level. Take caution as risk remains high for Monday and next week. Need a very strong end-of-day rally to say otherwise.
NFLX
$NFLX breaking below 105, rapidly heading toward the 50 day moving average. Will be interested to see what happens into the close today.
SPX Stop-out
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 1940/1915 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.25 on Nov 5th. Closing down a few put spreads today to avoid weekend risk after $VIX Warning has fired.
TICK low of the day.
Something is still roiling us intraday… epic battle.
$SPX STO $SPX 2020/2010 earlier…
$SPX
STO $SPX 2020/2010 earlier today and then was sweating it out as I acted too early before really seeing what this market was going to do today. STO at 0.80. Now have closed at 0.30. Glad to get out with a little lunch money on that one.
The SPX 2024 level held…so…
The SPX 2024 level held…so now what?
2045-2050 could be the top of the move, if this is just a retracement. It doesn’t have to get there today, but it might. Nevertheless, if it doesn’t get there today, it may do it on Monday; however, there is resistance at 2061 – 2064 which is a double Fib-Node and the retracement could turn back South there.
$VIX Futures
Front 2 months of the futures are in backwardation again. Not sure how much longer it will last but something to note for volatility sellers.
www.vixcentral.com
$NUGT and $KOLD ETFs
#ContangoETFs Managing some ITM positions in these…
BTC KOLD Nov 20th 100 call for 22.50. Sold for 4.00 on Aug 17th
STO KOLD Nov 20th 110 puts (x2) for 2.55. Will also add a Dec call for 17.50 or more on next KOLD up day.
BTC NUGT Nov 20th 30 put for 5.50. Sold for 2.50 on Oct. 12th.
STO NUGT June 45 call for 5.60
$SPX new LOD, but…
…TICKs fired huge after bottoming… $RUT near positive on day. That may have been bears’ last breath?
$SPX new LOD
$SPX new LOD
Danger Zone colors…
I’ve changed the background color and included the note in the header… “VIX danger zone entered 11/13.” Since #SPXcampaign is a key strategy followed by multiple members, I’ll alter the site appearance based on different conditions to be aware of.
It looks like the SPX…
It looks like the SPX 2024 support is trying to hold; Traders are anticipating and buying at 2027 just 3 ticks not to miss the possible up move. TICKs are still below 0 though and the ADSPD is negative still.
Second $VIX signal hit – DANGER ZONE
#SPXcampaign…. well, that sounds dramatic. But we hit 20.06, which is 25% above Wednesday’s close of 16.05. That’s the second signal which means we have entered a Danger Zone. Increasing volatility into a Friday is scary, as Monday could be a follow through. Friday the 13th, no less.
Even though we have been ticking up since the lows (and the $RUT is moving up strongly), we should be cautious for more possible downside. This could be a false warning, but those are rare in the backtesting I have done. I recommend you close put spreads if they are anywhere near your stops. If placing any new put spreads today, please make sure they are as far OTM as possible. We are now on warning until $VIX falls back below Wednesday’s close of 16.05.
$VIX warnings for Monday are 25.60 (100% from 10/28 low) and 22.96 (25% up from Thursday’s close).
$UA Short Puts
On the huge move down this morning, I’m throwing this one out there, taking a chance that the stock won’t be below the 8/24 market panic low at December expiration.
Sold $UA Dec 18 80 puts @ 1.55.
Delta is 23.
IV rank for $UA is currently in the 70th percentile.
Options have pretty good liquidity.
$SPX Not an ideal stop…
$SPX Not an ideal stop on the 2025/2000… got caught in the downdraft, and ended up paying 5.00 to get out. These same day expirations have caught me before. Very dangerous and you have to be aggressive to get out before your stop is hit.
We are pennies away from second $VIX signal at 20.05. If we do not rally back toward flat-on-day, I recommend being careful with any spreads you leave on over the weekend.
SPX, stopped out of today’s…
SPX, stopped out of today’s 2025/2000, closed short, will look to sell longs with next push down.
First $VIX signal hit
We are up 50% from the recent 12.80 low from 10/28. So we are now on notice for a second signal. With one signal fired, we should now proceed more cautiously on put spreads.
$NFLX short puts
Selling some premium to offset short call exposure. Sold $NFLX Nov 27 (weekly) 100 puts @ 1.25.
$ZSL forward split…
#ContangoETFs Now trading at 61.84, which would be 123.68 in yesterday’s dollars. All options positions have doubled in size.
SPX spread rolled
#SPXcampaign Rolling the Dec 11th spread I STOPPED out last night:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 17th 1890/1865 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size.
$SPX will gap down, but…
$SPX will gap down, but not to much… a bigger gap might be a signal of capitulation, leading to a rip higher. A small gap is less telling, so we’ll have to watch. If you have $SPX spreads hitting stops, be patient in getting your exit, or even wait to see what the morning’s direction will be.
Futures are saying we will open at 18.75, so shy of our next two signal points: 19.20 and 20.05. Watch that area, and watch @prvtrader‘s Fib levels on SPX.
$SPX Two possible areas of support…
Two possible areas of support within today’s reach are 2037-2039 and 2017-2024; below that is 2000 and 1967. The first two are agreement areas between Fib Retracements and Extensions.
SPX took one stop early
Since I had a few spreads threatening if we gap down tomorrow, I closed one before the $3.00 stop was hit.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 11th 1940/1915 put spreads for 2.70. Sold for 1.25 on Monday.
There is one other support…
There is one other support at 2038 that may hold before getting down to the 2023.
SPX call spread, UVXY call closings
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 2170/2195 call spreads for .20. Sold Nov 2nd for 1.25.
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Dec 18th 80 call for 1.25. Sold for 9.20 avg price in August. Not worth risk when over 80% profit available.
The 38.2% of the move…
The 38.2% of the move from the lows of 9/29 to the highs of 11/3 is at 2023; I won’t be surprised if it comes down to there before the down move is over. The 61.8% is at 1965.2 so be careful.
Just closed the SPX 2045/2035…
Just closed the SPX 2045/2035 trade for tomorrow at break even. Don’t want to risk the possibility of a gap down again tomorrow.
$SPX new lows of the…
$SPX new lows of the day
