SPX risk reversal

#SPX1dte As yesterday’s trades expired worthless I am at +4.00 for the week, exceeding my $3 target. I did not want to risk that by selling a condor the evening after the Fed decision, which often triggers an overnight move. Sure enough, the market rose overnight and has now shown more strength after economic news.

Although we may be too toppy to continue higher today, I am still entering a bullish trade. I had to go with a pretty wide delta disparity to avoid paying a high debit.

Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 4560/4540 put spreads, delta -.15
Bought to Open July 27th 4635/4655 call spreads, delta +.05
Total DEBIT -.45, IV 17.8%

I don’t expect to reach the short call strike but getting close would allow for 2.00 to 4.00 in profit.

Economic news

Jobless claims at 221,000 vs estimate of 235,000.
Q2 U.S. GDP +2.4% vs estimate of 2.0%

Market already higher overnight is now spiking more.

F LABU CMG SPCE MSFT

#shortputs
Sto F 28 JUL 2023 12.5 PUT @.04
Sto LABU 28 JUL 2023 6 PUT @.30
#onlyspreads
Sto CMG 28 JUL 2023 1850/1840 PUT @.55
Sto CMG 28 JUL 2023 1830/1820 PUT @.17
Sto MSFT 28 JUL 2023 325/315 PUT @.26
#coveredcalls
Sto SPCE 4 AUG 2023 4 CALL @.16

Fed up .25%

SPX put spread

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 4520/4500 put spreads for 1.25. At time of fill: SPX at 4557, delta -.12

GOOGL MARA Call

#coveredcalls
$GOOGL STO 7/28 133 call at .47
$MARA STO 7/28 17.5 call at .26

WDAY,

BTO September 15, 210 call at 25.90for a small spec trade. It is deep in the money and has a delta of 80 so should hold its value

Fed Risk/Reversal

#SPX1dte Betting that we rise into the announcement and spike higher from there.

Sold to open $SPX July 26th 4510/4490, delta -.07
Bought to Open July 26th 4615/4635 call spreads, delta +.05

Total credit on trade: +.25

SPY,

BTC July 28, 420 put at .02, sold at 1.76

TSLA MSFT MARA

#shortputspread
Sto TSLA 28 JUL 2023 255/245 PUT @.81
Sto MSFT 28 JUL 2023 327.5/317.5 PUT @1.11
#shortputs
Sto MARA 28 JUL 2023 16 PUT @.35

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 25th 4590 calls for .30. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Also put spread sold this morning for .60, so profit on day 1.35

SPX same day add-on

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 4540/4520 put spreads for .60. This is in addition to my condor sold yesterday.

META SOXL F

#onlyspreads
Sto META 28 JUL 2023 235/225 PUT @.20
#shortputs
Sto SOXL 28 JUL 2023 22.5 PUT @.23
Sto SOXL 28 JUL 2023 23 PUT @.32
#coveredcalls
Sto F 28 JUL 2023 14 CALL @.35

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4552, IV 11.4%, deltas -.07 +.07

Expiring: July 24th 4490/4510-4575/4595 condors. sold this morning for 1.15

XBI

#ShortPuts – Got lucky with the expiration on Friday so jumping right back in.

Sold XBI Jul 28 2023 83.0 Puts @ .95
Sold XBI Jul 28 2023 84.0 Puts @ .83
Sold XBI Jul 28 2023 85.0 Puts @ 1.25

TSLA

#CoveredCalls – Thought it might stay weak so rolled short call down for more protection. Of course that guarantees a bounce! LOL

Rolled TSLA Jul 28 2023 250.0 Call to Jul 28 2023 245.0 Call @ 3.50 credit (21.25 total now)

AI

Roll AI Jul-28-2023 40 calls (covered) // Aug-18-2023 @1.9 credit

AI CROX Calls

#coveredcalls
$AI STO 7/28 40.5 call at 1.05 These were shares put to me over the weekend at $39
$CROX STO 7/28 129 call at 4.82. Earnings are this Thursday

Y,

BTC July 28, 395 puts at .02, sold at 1.31

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 24th 4490/4510-4575/4595 condors for 1.15, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 17%

This is pretty tight range, so be cautious if you follow.

BOIL – odd assignment

Sold 35 shares of BOIL at $70 on a partial assignment of 7 of my BOIL1 07/21/2022 3.5 (pre-split) Covered Calls.
The stock never traded above $70 all week and closed Friday at $65.54.
Obviously I’ll take the gift. 🙂

MARA TSLA F SPCE LABU MSTR

STO MARA 28 JUL 23 15.5 PUT @.35

#assignment
F 14 put sold @.08
#optionsexpiration
LABU 6 put sold @.34
MARA 14.5 ,15 and 16 PUT SOLD @.21 AND .11 and .37
MSTR 307.50/322.5 SPREAD SOLD @.32
SPCE COVERED CALL 4 SOLD FOR .08
TSLA 260 PUT SOLD @4.05/ May have expired ITM/ so sold a call for next week at 260 for 8.19

XBI….aw crap

#ShortPuts – Got busy and missed the close. Short some 85 strike puts @ 2.05. Stock closed at 84.97 but over 85 just a few minutes after the close. Guessing I’ll get exercised…we’ll see.

OptionsExpiration

I was betting against this week’s move and most positions worked. A few needed to be rolled out.
Not fantastic gains, but I own tiny positions in most of the stocks so I am treating these gains like extra dividend income.

Expired:
BOIL 45/53 Bull Put Spread
BOIL 45/50 Bull Put Spread
BOIL 50.0 Diagonal Put
BOIL 70/75 Bear Call Spreads
CE 135/125 Bear Call Spread
GRMN 115/110 Bear Call Spread
HAS 75/67.5 Bear Call Spread
KMX 95/88 Bear Call Spread
KMX 91/87.5 Bear Call Spread
LNC 32.5/27.5 Bear Call Spread
MDT 90.0 Diagonal Call
NTRS 82.5 Diagonal Call
NTRS 80.0 Diagonal Call
PYPL 80/76 Bear Call Spread
QRVO 115/110 Bear Call Spread
SOXL 33/27 Bear Call Spread
SOXL 32/28.5 Bear Call Spreads
SOXL 20/23 Bull Put Spreads
SWK 105/100 Bear Call Spread
SWKS 121/116 Bear Call Spread
WHR 175/160 Bear Call Spread
A bunch of UVXY and VXX Covered Calls and Bear Call spreads
(too numerous to list)

Assigned:
VNO 20.0 Covered Call – adj cost about $15.40

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX July 21st 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors, sold this morning for 1.00.

Profit for week: +2.44

RIVN

BTC RIVN Aug-18-23 15/17.5 Put Vertical @ 0.12 Limit – was STO @.80 7/3/2023.

TSLA earnings

#BullPutSpreads – Took a directional shot (wrong!) LOL. Closing long put and leaving short to get exercised. Covering it next week at the expected move for downside protection and slightly below my basis (easy to roll these though).

Originally: Sold TSLA Jul 21 2023 300.0/290.0 Bull Put Spread @ 5.75

Sold to Close TSLA Jul 21 2023 290.0 Put @ 24.25

Sold TSLA Jul 28 2023 250.0 Call @ 17.75

Result:

Exercise at 300 with 47.75 credit received. Basis 252.25 covered at 250.00

TLT

#SyntheticCoveredCalls – One of my bigger positions so taking a scalp. Moving it back in and hoping the 200 day resistance holds another week.

Bought to Close TLT Aug 18 2023 105.0 Calls @ .42 (sold for .70)

Sold TLT Jul 28 2023 103.0 Calls @ .33

TFX Stock

Sold my last tiny position of TFX at $260.01. Bought at an average price of $258.95 in 2021 and 2022.
With only a tiny dividend, I’m happy to be out.
#FormerFallingKnife

Info on Nasdaq Rebalancing

From Stansberry

will look like after the rebalancing…

Among the most affected companies are Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT), both of which will see their weights decrease by approximately 3 percentage points. The redistributed weight will be allocated to smaller caps within the index.

The rebalancing will take effect before the market opens on Monday, July 24, and it’s expected to have implications for both passive and active mutual funds benchmarked to the Nasdaq 100 Index. According to analysts at EPFR Global, approximately $251 billion in assets under management from passive mutual funds and exchange-traded funds are tied to the index.

Rebalancing events, especially when executed by passive funds, can create some level of market churn. However, the details of the rebalancing have been known since Nasdaq’s announcement on July 10. So the trading activity that has taken place since could lessen the chances of significant volatility.

In fact, during the previous week, the top seven Nasdaq 100 stocks outperformed the index, suggesting that traders and investors may have already factored in the rebalancing.

Also, when you look at previous special rebalances, it becomes clear that they tend to be uneventful in the long run.

For instance, a special rebalancing occurred in 2011 when Apple’s (AAPL) weight in the index reached an uncomfortable 20%. Despite the reallocation of a significant portion of Apple’s weight to Microsoft, there was no lasting effect on share prices. This precedent suggests that next week’s rebalancing is unlikely to have a profound impact on the overall market.

While events like these may cause some short-term market churn, history suggests that the effects from rebalancing tend to be temporary. But it’s still crucial for investors to stay informed on events like these and keep a closer eye on your portfolio..

Rebalance

QQQ call butterfly

With high volume and OI at the 380 strike, playing for a 380 pin in the Qs today.
Bought 377/380/383 call butterfly @ .53 debit.

SOXL TROW Call Riskoff

Bought to close 1 SOXL 07/20/2022 26.0 Call at $0.03. Sold last week on a roll at $1.90.
Bought to close 1 TROW 07/20/2022 122.0 Call at $0.05. Sold as part of a bear call spread at $0.49

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 21st 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for 1.00, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 18.8%.

I still have the 4595/4615 call spreads from yesterday’s sale, so double risk on upside. Futures started an upside spike about 40 minutes ago, so if that has momentum I will need to watch the calls closely.

REG PRU Stocks

Trimmed my tiny position in PRU at $95.01. Bought in Sept 2022 at $89.00.
Exited my tiny position in REG at $65.01. Also bought in Sept 2022 at $55.00.
#FormerFallingKnife

Economic Calendar 7/24 – 7/28

Screen Shot 2023-07-20 at 9.04.22 PM
Screen Shot 2023-07-20 at 9.04.42 PM

Risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 21st 4485/4465 put spreads for .50. Condors sold this morning for 1.05. Will leave calls to expire or maybe close cheaply.

SPY

2 hour scalp
Sold 1 SPY 07/20/2023 452 Diagonal Put at $0.21

SNOW

#ShortPuts – Adding.

Sold SNOW Aug 04 2023 167.5 Put @ 3.05

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 4525/4505 put spreads for .30. Condors sold this morning for 1.15. Stop was hit at the day’s low, then we bounced right away, so I was able to wait for a cheap price to close.

Schwab Upcoming Economic News

Calendar
July 21: Expected earnings from American Express (AXP), AutoNation (AN), and Regions Financial (RF)

July 24: Expected earnings from Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and Whirlpool (WHR)

July 25: July Consumer Confidence and expected earnings from Alaska Air (ALK), Archer Daniels (ADM), Biogen (BIIB), Dow (DOW), Alphabet (GOOGL), General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Verizon (VZ), Microsoft (MSFT), and Visa (V)

July 26: FOMC rate decision, June New Home Sales, and expected earnings from AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Coca-Cola (KO), Union Pacific (UNP), Chipotle (CMG), and Meta Platforms (META)

July 27: Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) first estimate, June Pending Home Sales, June Durable Orders, and expected earnings from AbbVie (ABBV), Baxter (BAX), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Honeywell (HON), McDonald’s (MCD), Ford (F), and Roku (ROKU)

Earning So Far

Despite the market’s reaction to Tesla and Netflix, earnings season is surpassing analysts’ pre-quarter estimates, though the bar was low and it’s still very early. More than 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting through Wednesday beat Wall Street’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates, compared with the 74% average over the last 10 years.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 20th 4465/4485-4600/4620 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 14.5%, SPX 4544

JNJ DLR CSCO

Sold my tiny position in JNJ at $167.23. Bought at $154.98.
Sold a very old lot of CSCO at $52.56 (at the 52-week high). Bought in April 2022 at $50.00.
Yesterday, sold part of my tiny position in DLR at $120.01. Bought this lot at $115.78.
#FormerFallingKnife

SPY,

BTC July 21, 420 put at .02, sold at 1.16

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 20th 4505/4525-4595/4615 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.07, IV 17.9%

XBI Put Close

#shortputs
$XBI BTC 7/21 85 put at .40. STO at 2.08. Thank you @fuzzballl

SPY

5 minute scalp
Sold 1 SPY Jul 19 2023 455 Diagonal Put Net at $0.21

TSLA earnings

#BullPutSpreads – Possibly a sell the news but taking a directional shot to the upside anyway. I’ll manage by rolling or taking stock if it sells off. I must be bored. LOL

Sold TSLA Jul 21 2023 300.0/290.0 Bull Put Spread @ 5.75

Stopped out

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jul 19th 4560/4540 put spreads for 1.30. This leaves me flat for the week. I waited for third day to partake in the rally… surprise surprise, it didn’t work!

SNOW

#ShortPuts – Smaller position and shorter leash. Selling at the 50 day.

Sold SNOW Jul 28 2023 175.0 Put @ 2.28

SNOW

#ShortPuts – Looking a little toppy here so taking 60 to 70 percent a month early. Definitely looking for a down day to re-load.

Bought to Close SNOW Aug 18 2023 145.0 Put @ .73 (sold for 3.10)
Bought to Close SNOW Aug 18 2023 150.0 Put @ 1.06 (sold for 3.30)
Bought to Close SNOW Aug 18 2023 155.0 Put @ 1.49 (sold for 3.95)

TLT

#CoveredCalls #SyntheticCoveredCalls – Spreading them out a little now.

Sold TLT Jul 28 2023 103.0 Calls @ .70
Sold TLT Jul 28 2023 104.0 Calls @ .35

Sold TLT Aug 18 2023 105.0 Calls @ .70

AMGN

Sold my tiny AMGN position at 234.51.
Bought on 05/25/2023 at $220.00
#FormerFallingKnife

TLT

#CoveredCalls #SyntheticCoveredCalls – Being pretty careful with these hoping not to get run over.

Bought to Close TLT Jul 21 2023 102.0 Calls @ .56 (sold for .60)

Bought to Close TLT Jul 21 2023 103.0 Calls @ .15 (sold for .82)

TQQQ,

STO September 15, 38 puts at 1.13

SPX uncle

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 19th 4560/4540 put spreads for 2.80, SPX at 4572, delta -.27

Selling a put spread only 12 points from ATM is not usually my style, but such is this bullish market. I may get a long call spread going as well.

SPX quandary

#SPX1dte I don’t see a strong reason for the rally to stop… we hit new 15-month highs yesterday and next resistance would be the $SPX April 2022 high of 4637. So I’m trying to enter an aggressive same-day #RiskReversal but want the futures to dip down to 4586 (symbol: /ES). Since it ain’t happening, I will likely wait for the open and look for SPX to take a small spike down and try the fill then.

Trade is
Selling 4530/4510 put spreads
Buying 4590/4610 call spreads
Net credit will be 50 to 60 cents. That put spread is pretty close to money so it is aggressive.

NFLX BUPS Close

#bups
$NFLX BTC 7/21 380/390 BUPS at .20. STO 6/5 at 3.40

SPY

10 minute scalp
Sold 1 SPY Jul 18 2023 454.00 Diagonal Put at $0.13

AI Put

#shortputs
$AI STO 7/21 39.50 put at .84

XBI

#ShortPuts – Re-loading.

Sold XBI Jul 28 2023 84.5 Puts @ .93
Sold XBI Jul 28 2023 84.0 Puts @ .77

TSLA Call Roll

#syntheticcoveredcalls
$TSLA BTC 7/21 290 call and STO 7/21 292.50 call ad cost of $1.10 but would gain $2.50 if called away. They report tomorrow after the close

SPY

#ShortPuts – Taking a few more at 80 percent or better with a lot of time left.

Bought to Close SPY Aug 04 2023 425.0 Put @ .31 (sold for 2.45)

Bought to Close SPY Aug 11 2023 425.0 Put @ .51 (sold for 3.15)

Bought to Close SPY Aug 18 2023 425.0 Put @ .76 (sold for 3.75)

Another stop

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 19th 4580/4600 call spreads for 1.85. Condors sold earlier for 1.15.

This is a week to be long and nothing else. I’m now slightly negative on week. Both mornings I missed entries to get long. Just gotta pull the trigger and not wait for a greedier fill.

XBI

#ShortPuts – Thinning the herd a little.

Bought to Close XBI Jul 21 2023 83.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 2.20)

Stocks and Options

Sold out of my tiny KSS position at $26.01. Bought at $23.80 and $21.40
Sold out of my tiny BK position at $47.70. Bought at $43.79
Both are at 3-month highs
#FormerFallingKnife

Sold 1 KMX 07/21/2023 95/87.5 Bear Call Spread at $0.27 Credit.
Sold 1 WHR 07/21/2023 160.00 Call at $0.20 against an existing long 175 call to recover the long cost yet again.
#OnlySpreads

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jul 18th 4555/4575 call spreads for 1.70.

Two days in a row. This time I sold lopsided deltas 0f -.10 and +.05 and the call side STILL stopped me out. I also tried to get into a long call spread this morning but missed the fill before we rocketed higher.

U Call

#coveredcalls
$U STO 7/21/42.50 call at 1.02

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jul 19th 4470/4490-4580/4600 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 12.4%, SPX 4534

TMUS Call

#coveredcalls
$TMUS STO 7/21 142 call at .68

TQQQ,

STO September 15, 38 puts at 1.42

LULU

Replacing position btc yesterday:
STO Aug-18-23 360/350 Put Vertical @ 1.4 Limit

SPY,

BTC July 21, 385 puts at .02, sold at 3.31
BTC July 21, 390 puts at .02, sold at 2.73

SPX same day

#SPX1dte In pre-market a couple minutes after Retail sales number released…

Sold to Open $SPX Jul 18th 4470/4490-4555/4575 condors for 1.05, deltas -.10 +.05.

Definitely a bullish lean on the trade. Also my 4470 long put strike was my SHORT strike on the trade I placed yesterday which was still live. So this trade effectively closed that leg and my long strike is the 4450 from yesterday’s trade, meaning the put side has a 40-pt wing.

MARA

#shortputs

STO MARA 21 JUL 2023 ,15 and 16 PUT @.37 and .11