http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-31/gartman-throws-bearish-towel-dont-fight-fed
Monthly Archives: March 2016
@prvtrader Are your initials R.V.?…
@prvtrader Are your initials R.V.? honkhonk81
$X #ShortPuts – Bought to…
$X #ShortPuts – Bought to close X Apr 15 2016 7.0 Puts @ 0.01. These can’t drop any lower and this releases some margin.
Originally sold last November @ 1.35
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Apr 8th 2090/2115 call spreads for 1.75. Sold for 1.25 on March 9th. Sticking to my rules this time and closing this since we came within 20 points of the short strike.
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #IRA #Rollup –…
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #IRA #Rollup – also got this done.
Bought to close SVXY Apr 01 2016 49.0 Calls @ 1.86
Sold SVXY Apr 15 2016 51.0 Calls @ 2.17 – pushed the strike out 2 weeks and up 2 points for a 0.31 credit
Spx naked
Sold calls for 7.50 bought puts for 4.60 all expires tomorrow hope to catch a couple of bucks then out.
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #IRA #Rollup -…
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #IRA #Rollup – got these done too.
Bought to close SVXY Apr 01 2016 48.5 Calls @ 2.23
Sold SVXY Apr 08 2016 49.5 Calls @ 2.43 – pushed the strike out a week and up a point for a 0.20 credit
Bought to close SVXY Apr 01 2016 48.5 Calls @ 1.83
Sold SVXY Apr 22 2016 51.0 Call @ 2.53 – pushed the strike out 3 weeks and up 2.5 points for a 0.70 credit
today in NUGT
#contangoetfs Played both sides today…
STO NUGT Apr 1st 67 call for 1.25, 2 minutes after open. Then…
BTC that same call for .20 at 2:05 ET
STO NUGT Apr 8th 50 put for 1.40
BTC NUGT Apr 8th 90 call for .20. Sold for 2.25
BTC NUGT Apr 1st 53 put for .20. Sold for 1.30
BTC NUGT Apr 8th 105 call for .05. Sold for 2.00
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Apr 8th 2015/1990 put spreads for 1.75. Somewhat aggressive but continuing with bullish sentiment on this minor pullback.
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #RolledUp – so…
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #RolledUp – so week to week I decide whether to keep my long stock and let it work. I rolled up big positions this afternoon but I also have some OTM and NTM calls that I will deal with tomorrow.
Bought to close SVXY Apr 01 2016 48.0 Calls @ 2.91
Sold SVXY Apr 29 2016 51.0 Calls @ 3.36 – a 3 point bump in the strike price plus a 0.45 credit
Bought to close SVXY Apr 01 2016 47.0 Calls @ 3.75
Sold SVXY Apr 15 2016 48.5 Calls @ 3.85 – a 1 point bump in the strike plus a 0.10 credit (could have done better)
Bought to close SVXY Apr 01 2016 47.0 Calls @ 3.60
Sold SVXY May 06 2016 51.0 Call @ 3.70 – a 4 point bump in the strike plus a 0.10 credit
I’ve now spread out my calls a bit into different weeks so I don’t have a repeat of this week’s action causing me to roll all of my positions at once.
$AMBA Rolled April 15, 45…
$AMBA Rolled April 15, 45 calls to May 20, 47.50 calls for a credit of .50 each. AMBA is over 45 today. My goal is to some day sell calls for 70 and get called away heh heh.
$NUGT #ShortPuts- Sold NUGT Apr…
$NUGT #ShortPuts- Sold NUGT Apr 01 2016 52.0 Puts @ 0.20. These expire tomorrow.
Today I bought to close April 15, Blk, 270 puts @0.10 MSFT 49 puts @.03and PFE 27 puts @0.02 to free up margin for the number tomorrow. I also sold BA, 100 put for August @1.51
Closing CMG
Bought to close $CMG Apr 8 465 put @ 6.40. Sold for 11.49 on 3/17 as a rollout from the Mar 475 put which had gone ITM. Overall 2.20 profit on the rolled position and I’m glad to get out of this one. I’m still short the Apr 15 440 put which is looking better today as well. Still not ready to eat any burritos yet though…
$SVXY #ShortCalls – Bought to…
$SVXY #ShortCalls – Bought to close SVXY Jun 17 2016 80.0 Calls @ 0.05 . Lightened up on a very large short position to release some margin.
Originally sold in December at 1.65/1.70/1.75
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX April 1st 2075 calls for 2.25. Sold as part of 2075/2100 call spreads for 1.25 on Tuesday. Can’t risk a blast higher on tomorrow’s jobs report. Will try to sell the long 2100’s for a dime or more if we get strength.
Thinking of doing this trade…
Thinking of doing this trade for APR2 SPX 1985/1965 for .40cr. Please let me know your thoughts?
SPX Support and Resistance Levels for Thu Mar 31, 2016
Support: 2053-55, 2046-48, 2040-41, 2030-32; 2018-2020; 2008-10; 2000-05
Resistance: 2070-75; 2082-84; 2090-2092; 2098-2102; 2120-22; 2134-36
$UVXY I’m short the weekly…
$UVXY I’m short the weekly 26.0 Put. I’ve rolled it out twice already. Does there come a point when you have to take the loss, or do you just keep rolling it out. I’ve never experienced this before, where the stock just keeps losing ground.
Anybody?
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX April 14th (monthly) 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.55. Adding more to this spread, originally sold some for 5.00 last week.
UVXY rolling
#VXXGame I’ve been letting a few too many UVXY puts get a little too far ITM.
BTC UVXY Apr 15th 24 put for 5.60
STO UVXY May 20th 17 put for 2.35
STO UVXY May 20th 32 calls for 1.45
That put I closed was already a roll-out from previously closed puts. Sold for 1.25 on 3/1. I keep rolling into strangles, then have to roll the puts again as the calls go to a nickel. Gotta keep #rolling …
AMZN
AMZN Apr 1 600/602.50/607.50 broken wing call butterfly for 0.50 credit. Expires this week.
Max profit 300, max loss at 200. Breakeven at 605.50.
My thesis is that AMZN stays below the 602.50 area which looks like resistance today.
UVXY call spreads…completely out (bummer!)
The last ones…
Bought to Close UVXY JUN 17 2016 70/80 Bear call spreads @ .14 (sold for 1.10)
FWIW….from VIXCONTANGO.com
The market is moving into an area where it is going to start getting afraid of its own shadow. It’s getting too close to the sun. But fear not a big drop is unlikely especially if we hold the gap that we opened this morning. If we do establish a gap today, this has long-term bullish implications as this will be a mid-point or mid-rally gap which means that this rally will be going a lot further and will last a lot longer. If the gap does hold, we are looking at a move from here as big as the 1810 to 2060 move which is roughly 250 points. That points to about 2300 on the SPX. I know it sounds crazy, but this gap is either an exhaustion gap or a mid-point gap and I don’t think it is an exhaustion gap. Although seeing PCR go below 1.0 today could point to exhaustion, in no shape or form should you get ahead of this bull train and start shorting. The market needs a multi-day and multi-week consolidation phase before it rolls over and we are nowhere near that right now.
In the short term, the 2080 area of the SPX is where the last major Lower High was so I expect the SPX to hesitate in that area before it pushes forward. Today it got up to 2072, but that’s not close enough yet to challenge that resistance. But we should challenge 2080 soon. Probably on Friday. I expect the next couple of days to continue to be subdued as people wait for the jobs report.
Very bizarre to see the VX1 trade up a 1% to 16.25 since the VIX hasn’t been above 16 since March 15 and is currently anchored in the 13.50-13.70 range. I have no idea what these people are thinking. Expiration is in 14 days. Everything else is negative. Not only that, on Friday we have the April jobs report which is the best month for not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) jobs at 883K average and the 4th best for seasonally adjusted (SA) jobs at 123K average. The number that is widely reported is the seasonally adjusted number. In any case, the best month for SA jobs is May with 140K average and that is also the 2nd best NSA month at 847K. So I have no idea who is buying the VIX in front of that train of news, but those people apparently do exist. Be my guest and go long volatility when on average 1.5 million people enter the workforce over the next 2 months. Good Luck!
UVXY call spreads
This was kind of an odd ball that started out as an 80/100 that I’ve been rolling down. Think I’ve captured about all the delta on this one that I can and not much theta that far out so closing it for about two thirds of max profit. Guessing by June other opportunities will come along…
Bought to Close UVXY JUN 17 2016 45/100 Bear call spreads @ 1.09 (sold for 3.05)
#Fidelity
FYI #Fidelity I just received an email about my password had been blocked which was odd as I hadn’t been in the account in a week. I call their security and no event had taken place. They suspect this is a phishing event. The logo in the email is identical to theirs so if you see this don’t click on any link. Call them for verification.
SPX call spreads
Added again…
Sold SPX JUN 30 2016 2200/2225 Bear call spreads @ 1.75
If these get in trouble I’m taking 2 weeks off and going to Mexico. I’ll sit on the beach and drink a lot of tequila and get “XIV 50” tattooed on my ass! 🙂 🙂
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX April 1st 2070/2095 call spreads for 4.75. Sold for 1.35 on March 1st. Failed to follow my own rules and close this for cheap when I could have. But at least I avoided the panic today when it got above 7.50. Adding to a long list of rolls I’m chipping away at.
SPX call spreads
Added this morning…
Sold SPX JUL 29 2016 2225/2250 Bear call spreads @ 2.10
$SPX
All thanks for the comments. I sat on my hands and let the initial angst fade away. I shall trade my plan but I lowered my roll alert down to 2080 per Jeff’s comment. Bobbie, what method do you use to calculate an expected move as I have seen a few different approaches. Ramie, I agree 2100 is resistance, at least in the short term and the three day rule may bring us some relief. Thanks again.
#Gold $NUGT Gold is looking…
#Gold $NUGT
Gold is looking pretty weak. Even though the dollar ($DXY, $UUP) is down again today, gold has no follow thru from yesterday’s move. Gold was at much higher prices a couple weeks ago when the dollar was much higher. Looks like it has started making lower highs. $NUGT’s jump yesterday increased the premium’s enough to make it worth while for me to make a couple trades between yesterday afternoon and this morning. Not getting very aggressive and still staying pretty short term.
STO $NUGT Apr 8 $80 calls @ $1.00
STO $NUGT Apr 22 $100 calls @ $0.90
STO $NUGT Apr 29 $105 calls @ $1.15
SPX call spread in 4/29
Sold $SPX Apr 29 2140/2165 BeCS @ 1.30
#SPXCampaign
Fun with bonds
Sold $TLT May 20 125 puts @ 1.15. Offsets and creates a short strangle with May 135 calls.
SPX broken wing butterfly
STO SPX broken wing butterfly
Apr 8 2070/2075/2085 for 1.60 credit.
Max loss 3.40. Max profit 6.60.
Breakeven if SPX 2081.60
$SPX
Morning. Baring my soul. I have the SPX April 15th 2100/2120 BeCS. Sold at 1.20 a day late. Obviously underwater. I probably should have closed it yesterday at the 50% loss mark. I set an alert at 2090 to prod me into a roll which is my plan. I am wondering if closing it or rolling if for 2X as much now is the prudent thing to do? My experience with negative spreads is I get very anxious and make emotional decisions. My big bane which I am working on this year. I know window dressing will continue for another day and there may be dumping come Friday. I know Yellen has sparked a rally but is it enough to push the SPX to 2100 in 2 weeks. Comments welcomed.
YHOO Loss
BTC YHOO 36/38 BeCS for $0.95 Sold for $0.50 yesterday…a $0.45 loss!
my GOOGL Trade placed earlier…
my GOOGL Trade placed earlier this month is finally profitable. I took the 700/680 bu put.
$VXX
BTC May 20 $45 calls @ $.05, sold for $2.32.
Out 51 days early
These were the last of the $VXX calls that I was short.
$UVXY
My timing wasn’t great last week when I reverse rolled my short puts into short calls. Would have done much better a couple of days later, but I’m very glad that I did it.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, bought to close $SPX April 8th 1950/1925 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on 3/23.
The Importance of the Greeks!…
Back when I was taking my first options course, I remember the instructors emphasizing how important the Greeks were in trading options.
The truth is that, at the time, they didn’t look so important to me.
Well, after reviewing a lot of losing trades as well as some small winners, I found that most of my losers and those winners were I made very little, were due to not matching the right strategy with the market conditions; basically, the root of the problem was not watching the Greeks when placing the trades.
The majority of my problems came from trying to fit the wrong strategy for the market conditions at the time. Like selling credit spreads on a low volatility environment; buying options or debit spreads on a high volatility period; Using Iron Condors when the market was running hard. Using debit spreads on a squeeze; using Calendars or Diagonals on decreasing IV periods.
I wonder how much money I would have saved, by just looking at the damned Greeks!
What about you guys; do you watch the Greeks before placing a trade?
Rally resuming
After a couple weeks of consolidation the rally higher may be resuming. Expect a new 2016 low in the VIX this morning, and new all-time low in UVXY. With a VIX Upside Warning, it’s possible for strength to continue until we regain the pre-correction high, which in this case was the November 3rd high of 2116. If we make it that far without a serious pullback, upward strength should at least slow.
Non-farm payrolls on Friday could be another catalyst.
Interesting Article from a Fund Manager.
The Big Picture … Market Perspectives
By Bryan Rich
March 29, 2016, 3:30pm EST
There are two signficant events this week for markets. One came today. The other comes Friday (the employment report) which we’ll talk about later in the week.
First, today, Janet Yellen (the Fed Chair) gave a prepared speech in New York and answered questions. This is the first time we’ve heard from Yellen since the Fed surprised the market on March 16, by removing two (of what was previously four) rate hikes from their projections for the year.
In this environment, as we’ve said, by telegraphing a “less tight” policy, that’s effectively easing. And that has enormous ramifications for markets and the economy.
Still, the Fed’s action was just another leg in the coordinated policy response, by global central banks, to the bust in oil prices and the threats that it represented (i.e. bankruptcies, defaults, banking instability).
From the moment oil hit $26, the central banks have circled the wagons. The BOJ has acted (currency intervention), the ECB has acted (QE+), China (boosting bank lending) has acted and the Fed has acted (guiding a “less tight” path).
Source: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
The coordinated response from central banks has manufactured a 50% recovery in oil prices (moving many shaky energy companies away from the bankruptcy edge) and has reversed stocks from down on the year, back to positive territory.
So with this backdrop in mind, today, Yellen further cemented an easier stance than the Fed had in December. That further suppressed market interest rates (which maintains the fuel for housing and consumer credit recovery), pushed stocks higher (paper wealth, which makes people feel wealthier – they spend, they hire) and pushed the dollar lower, which underpins the recovery in commodities (further quelling the threat of the oil price bust). Expect that market reaction to continue.
The Fed has made it clear, they want to chase inflation and are happy to get behind the curve. We think we will look back at this Feb-March period (the coordinated actions) as the bottom in monetary policy (i.e. markets, inflation and growth go on a run from here, and global central bank policy ultimately turns from here).
Have a great night.
Regards,
Bryan
$SPX
Sold to open April 22nd 2120/2140 call spread @ 1.05. Filled at closing bell.
SPX call spread
Joining the party
Sold $SPX May 6 2140/2165 call spreads @ 1.45
SPX call spread
STO Apr 15 2100/2110 call spread for 1.15
SPX more calls, living on the edge
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX April 1st 2075/2100 call spreads for 1.25. Still holding a 2070/2095 spread as well but gambling that we won’t be going much higher this week. I could be wrong with an upside warning in effect… crazy markets with S&P, gold, and bonds all UP.
NUGT BeCS
STO Apr 29 NUGT 80/85 BeCS for $0.90 credit
#VXXGame-New all-time low in UVXY…
#VXXGame-New all-time low in UVXY notched today, exceeding the low of 21.25 from last Tuesday.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX April 1st 1985/1960 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 last Wednesday.
SVXY covered call
Sold $SVXY Sep 16 70 call @ 1.50
TRADES:
$NUGT 4/1/16 STO 67.0 CALLS @1.20 Sort of followed @Jeff. Thanks. ;>)
$FANG 4/15/16 BTC 72.50 PUTS @1.25, STO @1.29 Too boring.
$NUGT 9/16/16 STO 105.0 CALL @10.00 Followed @Iceman. Thank you.
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #OptionLadder – SVXY…
$SVXY #CoveredCalls #OptionLadder – SVXY is back up to the March 22nd high. Sold these in anticipation of a big double top
Sold SVXY Apr 15 2016 53.0 Calls @ 0.55
Sold SVXY Apr 29 2016 55.0 Calls @ 0.80
Sold SVXY May 20 2016 60.0 Calls @ 0.55
Sold SVXY Jun 17 2016 61.0 Calls @ 1.15
UVXY call spreads
Another batch gone…
Bought to Close UVXY APR 15 2016 45/65 Bear call spreads @ .10 (sold for .91)
Glad these are gone…sold them with a little higher risk without a big volatility spike.
$NUGT #ShortCalls – Sold 1…
$NUGT #ShortCalls – Sold 1 NUGT JUN 17 2016 105.0 Call @ 4.90
NUGT short calls
Adding positions in expirations where I had none. Highest strikes.
Sold $NUGT May 20 95 call @ 3.70
Sold $NUGT APr 29 (weekly) 105 call @ 1.25
$UVXY #ShortPuts – Sold UVXY…
$UVXY #ShortPuts – Sold UVXY APR 22 2016 17.0 Puts @ 0.53
/VX VIX futures
Went long at 17.05 for a hedge. XIV and SVXY rocking now so really enjoying that but keeping a future in my back pocket.
A TRADE: On spike.
$NUGT BTC 55.0 PUT @1.45 STO @4.62 This was a roll out last week.
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold DUST…
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold DUST Apr 15 2016 3.0 Puts @ 0.25. All of the DUST puts I’ve sold at 3 have expired … so far
$SVXY #CoveredCalls – Sold SVXY…
$SVXY #CoveredCalls – Sold SVXY Jun 17 2016 60.0 Calls @ 1.25 in an IRA.
$NUGT #ShortCalls – Sold 1…
$NUGT #ShortCalls – Sold 1 NUGT May 06 2016 75.0 Call @ 5.70. Again staying at the top of the chain with a small position
UVXY call spreads
Bought to Close UVXY APR 15 2016 50/70 Bear call spreads @ .08 (sold for 1.20)
SPX on Yellen Spike
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Apr 14th 2090/2115 call spreads for 2.05 (a bit early)
STO $SPX May 27th 2125/2150 call spreads for 4.50, as a roll from previously stopped call spreads.
NUGT calls
Sold 1 NUGT MAY 20 2016 95.0 Call @ 3.60
$NUGT #ShortCalls – Sold 1…
$NUGT #ShortCalls – Sold 1 NUGT Sep 16 2016 105.0 Call @ 10.50. Staying small at the highest available strike price.
NUGT on Yellen spike
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Apr 1st 65 call for 1.35
STO NUGT Apr 8th 72 call for 1.20
STO NUGT Apr 15th 75 call for 1.85
SBUX closed
STC SBUX 57.5 Calls at $2.03; Bought yesterday for $1.68…not much but it pays lunch!
A TRADE: A BuPS, Speculative.
$NUGT BTO 4/1/16 45.0 PUT
$NUGT STO 4/1/16 50.0 PUT @.92 Credit for the BuPS, 3.5 days to expiration.
Looking to buy bu call…
Looking to buy bu call on AMZN – APR1 580/585 for 2.95 if it pulls back. Just missed it.
NFLX on Squeeze…
BTO Apr 22 NFLX 98.5/104 BuCS for $2.90, that is my max risk. Max profit is $2.60
POS = 2.90/5.5 = 53%
Earnings in 20 Days…may or may not hold through earnings.
UVXY call spreads
Bought to Close UVXY APR 15 2016 50/70 Bear call spreads @ .10 (sold for 1.20)
NUGT short calls
Bought to Close NUGT APR 15 2016 105.0 Calls @ .25 (sold for 2.05)
Looking to add again at lower strikes on a bounce since this was part of 50/105 strangles…
YHOO BeCS
STO Apr 15 YHOO 36/38 BeCS for $0.50 at the open. It is at $0.55 now…
/VX VIX futures
Out at 17.50…bought yesterday at 17.10. 40 tick winner looking to get back in around 17 again…
Options Bistro 