$SVXY #CoveredCalls #Rollup – did the following roll this afternoon –
Bought to close SVXY JUL 15 2016 55.0 Calls / Sold SVXY JUL 22 2016 56.0 Calls for a 0.20 credit.
Added a point to the strike price with only an extra week of time added on.
I’ll have others to roll tomorrow unless the market/stock breaks down sharply.
Doesn’t seem likely given the current momentum.
Daily Archives: Thursday, July 14, 2016
$NUGT #ShortPuts – Sold 1…
$NUGT #ShortPuts – Sold 1 NUGT Jul 29 2016 92.0 Put @ 1.15
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Right after the bell, Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2035/2010 puts for .30. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 6.05 on June 30th.
Closing SWKS
Bought to close $SWKS Aug 19 52.50 puts @ .35. Sold for 1.50 on 7/5.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Was trying to bottom pick the midday pullback, but got stuck chasing it back up instead. Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 2130/2105 put spreads for 2.60. This offsets an ATM call spread for this Wednesday expiry… margin free for the Reg T accounts.
SPX Upside Warning data
I have been compiling data on the #VIXindicator. I hope to present it to everyone in a webinar soon, but since we are in an Upside Warning now, I wanted to share some points of interest.
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
New VIX low notched earlier…
New VIX low notched earlier (12.72), but back up to flat now. Another day of all-time lows in VXX and UVXY.
NUGT weekly strangle
Been paying nicely each week…getting a jump start on next week. Already closed this week’s 190 call and rolled up the put side a couple times (currently 155). With the aggressive put roll I’ll start the call side for next week a little early.
Sold NUGT JUL 22 2016 195.0 Call @ 2.50
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Highest calls I have ever sold, but I’ve reduced my position size for now. I will use a 3.00 stop on this one.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.30
CF closed the short Aug….
CF closed the short Aug. 19 25 put part of a 25/30 BuPS falling knife Iceman rec. made half, closing early has been working well for me. Still short a November 22.50 put, along with keeping the long August and currently worthless 30 put.
FXI China large cap ETF…
FXI China large cap ETF bought an Aug. 19 35.50 put for .98. It looks to this untrained eye that it’s at the top of the roller coaster about to head down.
ALK Alaska Airlines sold Aug 65/70 Call spread for 1.25 with ALK at 63.70, a little risky
SPX….still on the fence about trading this regularly
I’ve been messing with SPX off and on for a year or so mainly with 60-90 day positions well out of the money. Making a little here and there but can’t decide if it’s worth the effort for the return I’m getting…especially with these seemingly impossible crazy moves we’ve gotten. Taking a step back for now…
Bought to Close SPX SEP 30 2016 2225/2250 Bear call spread @ 6.90 (sold for 2.25)
Bought to Close SPX OCT 31 2016 2250/2275 Bear call spread @ 6.30 (sold for 2.50)
Net loss on these 2 positions of 8.45. Only other position is twice as many Aug 31 1900/1775 put spreads where I’ve been rolling up the short side. Net credit on those is 4.30 at twice the size of the calls so bringing in 8.60. This was my intended stop point…when the call losses equaled the max possible put gains I would close. Risking a whipsaw here but could reload the calls if needed. I’d prefer the puts expire and walk away with a wash though…we’ll see!
QIHU Calls
QIHU had good earnings this morning and it gapped up $3.00; it hasn’t moved much since.
According to the Dynamic Indicator it shows a major bullish bias since all time frames are green and in sync, so I decided to buy some Calls.
I bought the Jul 29 77 Calls for $0.05…with a IV of 1.9%
Maybe the MM don’t expect QIHU to move any higher, but these options still have 15 DTE, a blip up and they should be worth more than 5cts.
What am I missing?
SVXY closing puts
These were part of a short call reverse roll from awhile back so happy to have any profit. Taking them off now with VIX in the dump without much of an SVXY pop….things that make you go hmmm…LOL In an #IRA so freeing up lots of cash as well.
Bought to Close SVXY JUL 15 2016 55.0 Puts @ .25 (sold for .90 reverse roll)
$NUGT
With the market being strong, I’m just not digging how gold is trading. I took off my covered call this morning after $NUGT rebounded.
STC $NUGT @ $152 (bought for $152)
BTC $NUGT July 29 $155 calls @ $15.16 (sold yesterday for $20)
All in, made a little over $900 in about 10 day’s. I’ll take it.
SPX, a stop and a close
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 12.10. Sold for 1.45 on July 6th. (ouch)
Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 1975/1950 put spreads for .30. Sold as part of condor-roll for 7.40 on July 1.
GT Bought an Aug. 19…
GT Bought an Aug. 19 27 put for 1.20 with Goodyear at 26.81
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs Taking profits early since it was hogging margin. NUGT has actually been manageable for last week or so. When will the next mega-move happen?
BTC NUGT Aug 5th 205 call for 5.40. Sold for 15.00 on July 6th.
IBB…playing it safe
Not holding out for the last nickel since it’s looking a little weak. Might even get a chance to reload today or tomorrow. In an #IRA so freeing up lots and lots of cash.
Bought to Close IBB JUL 15 2016 260.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 3.20)
Hey, No Pressure
#SPXcampaign Having to close a few spreads to manage margin pressure and the sheer insanity of this move. As a group of traders I know are calling it, the B.S.C. market. A nocturnal blind flying mammal defecating in its lunacy.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2180/2200 call spreads for 9.35. Sold Tuesday for 7.30.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2200/2225 call spreads for 5.90. Sold for 1.75 on Monday.
Bought to close $SPX July 27th 2025/2000 put spreads for .30. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 4.40 on July 7th (don’t ask about the call side)
And if you’re feeling the pressure like me, sit back and watch the visual lyrics… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9L0IUG8gKQ
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 1940/1915 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on July 5th.
Good morning
We need Gartman to get really bullish so we can get a correction.
Options Bistro 