#SPX1dte Stopped out of put side for 1.15, so breakeven after commissions.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 4240/4260-4370/4390 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 26.58%
SPX upside risk off
#SPX1dte Closed call side for .35 (by selling $SPX Sept 25th 4375/4355 put spreads for 19.65). My stop was not hit but given recent volatility I’m playing it on the safe side.
Economic Calendar 9/25 – 9/29
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 25th 4235/4255-4355/4375 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 25.7%
Going long for tomorrow
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Sept 22nd 4230/4250-4400/4420 condors for .90.
I think chances are good for a big bounce or a big drop on a Friday. I’m also looking to get out of the 2nd half of my Sep 28th 4250/4230 put spread. Just don’t want to wake up with the thing at 6.00 tomorrow.
Both of these moves put me deeper into the hole for the week, but it is also my only shot at any kind of recovery.
Risk off
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sep 21st 4315/4295 put spreads for .15
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Sep 21st 4295/4315-4400/4420 condors for 1.10, delta -.05 +.08, SPX at 4365, IV 23.6%
A bit aggressive on call side. If we just found the bottom then I’ll be stopped out.
Partial risk reversed
#SPX1dte Earlier, Bought to close half of the #RiskReversal put side. Stop not hit yet, but since this is a double position I want to reduce risk while it is cheaper to do so.
BTC $SPX Sep 28th 4250/4230 put spreads for 1.30. Trade entered for a .30 debit on Tuesday.
No trade for today yet. Gun shy after yesterday’s misfire.
Possibly the worst “Upside” Warning since 2001. I’ll write a post about it later today.
Risky add-on
#SPX1dte Sold: $SPX Sep 20th 4420/4400 put spresds for 1.35, with SPX at 4445, delta -.15, IV 39.1%, Powell still in press conference, 1 hr 15 minutes to close.
SPX 2.5-hte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 20th 4385/4405-4505/4525 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 38.2%, expected move +/- 24.38
No morning trade
#SPX1dte I will consider a trade right before Fed announcement. If width and premium is robust enough, I will trade before, if not I will wait until after.
Stopped out
#SPX1dte Bought to close put side for 2.60. Now negative on week.
Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Inspires by Matt’s trade from yesterday, I used his expiration date but a little narrower on the strikes.
Sold $SPX Sep 28th 4250/4230 put spreads
Bought Sep 28th 4580/4600 call spreads
Net debit -0.25
Double-sized position.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 19th 4400/4420-4485/4505 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 16.45%
Economic Calendar 9/18 – 9/22
FOMC decision Wednesday at 2pm ET
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 18th 4385/4405-4480/4500 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 18.15%
Another day, another early stop
#SPX1dte Placed my trade right before a spike two days in a row, in opposite directions.
Bought to close put side for 1.45, by selling $SPX Sept 12th 4445/4465 call spreads for 18.55.
Will consider a roll trade a bit later if things settle.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 15th 4445/4465-4545/4565 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 19.5%
SPX reverse roll
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 14th 4460/4440 put spreads for 1.00. delta -.11. Aggressive but going with upward trend of the day. This absorbs the loss of the call side.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 14th 4415/4435-4510/4530 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 17.9%
CPI for August
(from CNBC.com)
Inflation posted its biggest monthly increase this year in August as consumers faced higher prices on energy and a variety of other items.
The consumer price index, which measures costs across a broad variety of goods and services, rose 0.6% for the month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for respective increases of 0.6% and 3.6%.
However, excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% and 4.3% respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on core as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte I pulled trigger one minute before CPI data released since I was getting good premium and width.
At 5:29am PT, sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 4385/4405-4515/4535 condors for 1.30, deltas -.07 +.06
Risk off
#SPX1dte Closed put side for .15 by selling to Open $SPX Sep 12th 4425/4445 call spreads for 19.85. My stop was not hit but I don’t want to wait for that possibility.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 4425/4445-4510/4530 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.08 IV 17.4%
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 11th 4415/4435-4510/4530 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 17.7%
Economic Calendar 9/11 – 9/15
There are no “three bull” (market moving) items for Monday, Tuesday, or Friday. CPI report on Wednesday could be a mover if it varies much from estimate.
SPX risk reversal
#SPX1dte Trying again… this week the Upside Warning did NOT come trhough and we dropped. But it was not severe so I am still looking for a retest of the 4607 high of 7/27.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 15th 4335/4315 put spreads, delta -.06
Bought to open Sept 15th 4570/4590 call spreads, delta +.06
Total debit -.10
This is a double sized position.
Risk off
#SPX1dte Closed call side for .30 by selling to open $SPX Sept 8th 4510/4490 put spreads for 19.70.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 8th 4395/4415-4490/4510 condors for 1.45, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 19.9%
Futures were dead flat when I was filled, so I went a little more aggressive on deltas than I normally do, since I’m only slightly profitable in this short week.
Risk off
#SPX1dte Took off downside risk for 0.25 by selling $SPX Sept 7th 4380/4400 call spreads for 19.75.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4380/4400-4485/4505 condors for 1.10, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 21%
Some Risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 8th 4390/4370 put spreads for .50. This is part of the #RiskReversal I placed last Friday for a -.10 debit. The long call side is failing, but I’m at downside risk on the put side so I took off HALF of the put position. I will leave the other half to either expire or get stopped out (this trade is double the size of my normal size).
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 6th 4445/4425 put spreads for 1.25. Condors sold this morning for .85
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4425/4445-4525/4545 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.6%
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Sep 5th 4445/4465-4540/4560 condors, sold this morning for 1.00.
Economic Calendar 9/4 – 9/8
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 5th 4445/4465-4540/4560 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 18%
Upside Warning is reinstated
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect at the close Friday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.
This is the FOURTH Upside Warning we’ve seen WITHOUT any intervening Downside Warnings. That’s the first time that has happened in the 20+ years of tracking this indicator.
Here is data on last several Upside Warnings.
July 14, 2023: close on that day: 4,505. Subsequent high was 4,607 on July 27. 9 trading days, +2.3%
June 5, 2023: close on that day: 4,274. Subsequent high was 4,458 on June 30. 18 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 30, 2023: close on that day: 4,051. Subsequent high was 4,187 on May 1. 21 trading days, +3.4%
Nov 23, 2022: close on that day: 4,027. Subsequent high was 4195 on Feb 2. 47 trading days, +4.2%
Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
August Jobs Report
#Jobs — Higher than expected, but downward revisions of past months and UE ticks up.
Gain of +187,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 170K
Unemployment up 0.2 to 3.7%, highest since Feb 2022
U6 unemployment 7.1%, up by 0.4
Labor force participation at 62.8%, up to pre-Covid levels
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; 4.3% increase over the year, each 0 .1 weaker than expected
July jobs revised down by -30K to +157K
June jobs revised down by -80K to +105K
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold 3 minutes after Jobs report release: $SPX 4455/4575-4570/4590 condors for 1.10, deltas -.07 +.06
Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 8th 4390/4370 put spreads
Bought to open Sept 8th 4620/4640 call spreads
Total DEBIT is -0.10. This is a double-sized position
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring $SPX Aug 31st 4445/4465-4570/4590 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
Waiting until after the morning’s Job report before placing tomorrow’s trade.
Risk off
#SPX1dte Closed the add-on put spread effectively for .50, by selling the $SPX Aug 31st 4470/4490 call spread for 19.50
SPX add-on
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 31st 4490/4470 put spreads for 1.05, delta -.13
This is aggressive, but $VIX got below 14 and on track for a renewed Upside Warning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 31st 4445/4465-4570/4590 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 14.6%
Expiring: Condor sold yesterday and additional put spread sold this morning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I wasn’t able to post yeterday, but around 12:30 PT…
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 4420/4440-4545/4565 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX roll
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 29th 4465/4485 call spreads for 1.95. Played with fire by going with 8-deltas today. Will probably sell something else in a little while once we see if this rally has more steam.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 29th 4370/4390-4465/4485 condors for 1.387, deltas -.08 +.08, IV 20.5%
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 28th 4350/4370-4460/4480 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 21.1%
Economic Calendar for 8/28 – 9/1
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4300/4320-4460/4480 condors for 1.20, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 33.1%
IV & premium elevated since Powell will be speaking at Jackson Hole at 10am ET
Bad SPX week
#SPX1dte Another day, another stop hit. That’s 4 for 4 on days with troubled trades. Since the week has been such a whipsaw and so far ALL of my closing stop trades ended up being more costly than necessary, I’m waiting this one out and not closing hastily.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 4385/4405-4495/4515 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 22%
Stopped again
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 23rd 4450/4470 call spreads for .95. Condors sold earlier as a roll for 1.10. At least this one got me a tad bit a profit. Some day I will pick the right day to be long.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte. This is a rough week. Notice how I tried to get long yesterday and it reversed on me? So I go neutral today and it blows up in my face? The best hope I have for the week will be break even.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 23rd 4335/4355 call spreads for 3.40.
There is about a 90% certainty that this spread will drop below 2.00 at some point and about 50% certainty it will expire worthless. But even a 10% possibility that the rally at this moment won’t stop until the spread is over 5.00 means I have to throw in the towel and take the chunky loss.
And sure enough, by the time I finished typing this, the price dropped .80 lower than the price I paid. Very frustrating week.
SPX add on
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 4360/4340 put spreads for .90. Delta -.08, SPX at 4399.
Added to condor sold yesterday for 1.15
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 4305/4325-4435/4455 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4384, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 16.1%
SPX try again
#SPX1dte This is an aggressive one: Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4345/4365-4430/4450 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.09
SPX risk reversal
#SPX1dte Market may have found its short term bottom and futures rose overnight, so trying a long call position today.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4375/4355 put spreads, delta -.09
Bought to Open Aug 22nd 4460/4480 call spreads, delta +.05
Total DEBIT -0.15
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 22nd 4435/4455 call spreads for 2.10. Condors sold earlier for 1.30.
My overlapping Tuesday trade didn’t work this week. But I will sell a new condor in the morning.
Expiring: Aug 21st 4310/4330-4425/4445 condors, sold this morning for 1.131
SPX next day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4275/4295-4435/4455 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4375, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.3%
Economic Calendar for 8/21-8/25
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 4310/4330-4425/4445 condors for 1.131, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 23.2%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte BTC call side for .10. Order in to close puts for the same. No trades for Friday due to my schedule.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 4345/4365-4460/4480 condors for 1.25, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 23.25%
Risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 16th 4385/4365 put spreads for .30. Condors sold for 1.10 this morning. Stop was still 17 points below the day’s low thus far, but steering clear of the Fed minutes release coming in 45 minutes.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 4365/4385-4480/4500 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 23.2%
FOMC minutes released today at 2pm ET, so I don’t expect a lot of decay before then.
Removing some risk
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 15th 4410/4390 put spreads for .10. Took off one of the put spreads so I’m not doubled up. Leaving everything else for expiration.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 4390/4410-4490/4510 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 22.1%, 1 hour 18 minutes after open.
I decided to wait on this as market dropped in middle of night and it seemed it would drop more after open. This is in addition to the condor sold yesterday, which is still open.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX 4425/4445-4510/4530 condors, sold earlier today for 1.00 as a roll.
Keeping the Aug 15th 4395/4415-4535/4555 condors for 1.15 for tomorrow. Deltas ended day at -.03 +.06
SPX next day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 4395/4415-4535/4555 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 15.3%
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 14th 4500/4520 call spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.20 this morning. Going to sell another condor.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 4390/4410-4500/4520 condors for 1.20, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 22.3%
Options Bistro 