Upside Warning is reinstated

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect at the close Friday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.

This is the FOURTH Upside Warning we’ve seen WITHOUT any intervening Downside Warnings. That’s the first time that has happened in the 20+ years of tracking this indicator.

Here is data on last several Upside Warnings.

July 14, 2023: close on that day: 4,505. Subsequent high was 4,607 on July 27. 9 trading days, +2.3%
June 5, 2023: close on that day: 4,274. Subsequent high was 4,458 on June 30. 18 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 30, 2023: close on that day: 4,051. Subsequent high was 4,187 on May 1. 21 trading days, +3.4%
Nov 23, 2022: close on that day: 4,027. Subsequent high was 4195 on Feb 2. 47 trading days, +4.2%
Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%

August Jobs Report

#Jobs — Higher than expected, but downward revisions of past months and UE ticks up.

Gain of +187,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 170K
Unemployment up 0.2 to 3.7%, highest since Feb 2022
U6 unemployment 7.1%, up by 0.4
Labor force participation at 62.8%, up to pre-Covid levels
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; 4.3% increase over the year, each 0 .1 weaker than expected

July jobs revised down by -30K to +157K
June jobs revised down by -80K to +105K

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold 3 minutes after Jobs report release: $SPX 4455/4575-4570/4590 condors for 1.10, deltas -.07 +.06

Risk Reversal

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 8th 4390/4370 put spreads
Bought to open Sept 8th 4620/4640 call spreads
Total DEBIT is -0.10. This is a double-sized position

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring $SPX Aug 31st 4445/4465-4570/4590 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.

Waiting until after the morning’s Job report before placing tomorrow’s trade.

Risk off

#SPX1dte Closed the add-on put spread effectively for .50, by selling the $SPX Aug 31st 4470/4490 call spread for 19.50

SPX add-on

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 31st 4490/4470 put spreads for 1.05, delta -.13

This is aggressive, but $VIX got below 14 and on track for a renewed Upside Warning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 31st 4445/4465-4570/4590 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 14.6%

Expiring: Condor sold yesterday and additional put spread sold this morning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I wasn’t able to post yeterday, but around 12:30 PT…

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 4420/4440-4545/4565 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.06

SPX roll

#SPX1dte #Rolling Sold to Open $SPX Aug 29th 4410/4430-4495/4515 condors for 1.10, deltas -.08 +.08, SPX at 4468

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 29th 4465/4485 call spreads for 1.95. Played with fire by going with 8-deltas today. Will probably sell something else in a little while once we see if this rally has more steam.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 29th 4370/4390-4465/4485 condors for 1.387, deltas -.08 +.08, IV 20.5%

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 28th 4350/4370-4460/4480 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 21.1%

Economic Calendar for 8/28 – 9/1

Screen Shot 2023-08-27 at 10.54.47 AM
Screen Shot 2023-08-27 at 10.55.14 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4300/4320-4460/4480 condors for 1.20, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 33.1%

IV & premium elevated since Powell will be speaking at Jackson Hole at 10am ET

Bad SPX week

#SPX1dte Another day, another stop hit. That’s 4 for 4 on days with troubled trades. Since the week has been such a whipsaw and so far ALL of my closing stop trades ended up being more costly than necessary, I’m waiting this one out and not closing hastily.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 4385/4405-4495/4515 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 22%

Stopped again

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 23rd 4450/4470 call spreads for .95. Condors sold earlier as a roll for 1.10. At least this one got me a tad bit a profit. Some day I will pick the right day to be long.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte. This is a rough week. Notice how I tried to get long yesterday and it reversed on me? So I go neutral today and it blows up in my face? The best hope I have for the week will be break even.

Bought to close $SPX Aug 23rd 4335/4355 call spreads for 3.40.

There is about a 90% certainty that this spread will drop below 2.00 at some point and about 50% certainty it will expire worthless. But even a 10% possibility that the rally at this moment won’t stop until the spread is over 5.00 means I have to throw in the towel and take the chunky loss.

And sure enough, by the time I finished typing this, the price dropped .80 lower than the price I paid. Very frustrating week.

#rolling

SPX add on

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 4360/4340 put spreads for .90. Delta -.08, SPX at 4399.

Added to condor sold yesterday for 1.15

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 4305/4325-4435/4455 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4384, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 16.1%

SPX try again

#SPX1dte This is an aggressive one: Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4345/4365-4430/4450 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.09

SPX risk reversal

#SPX1dte Market may have found its short term bottom and futures rose overnight, so trying a long call position today.

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4375/4355 put spreads, delta -.09
Bought to Open Aug 22nd 4460/4480 call spreads, delta +.05
Total DEBIT -0.15

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 22nd 4435/4455 call spreads for 2.10. Condors sold earlier for 1.30.

My overlapping Tuesday trade didn’t work this week. But I will sell a new condor in the morning.

Expiring: Aug 21st 4310/4330-4425/4445 condors, sold this morning for 1.131

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4275/4295-4435/4455 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4375, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.3%

Economic Calendar for 8/21-8/25

Screen Shot 2023-08-21 at 6.25.09 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 4310/4330-4425/4445 condors for 1.131, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 23.2%

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte BTC call side for .10. Order in to close puts for the same. No trades for Friday due to my schedule.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 4345/4365-4460/4480 condors for 1.25, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 23.25%

Risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 16th 4385/4365 put spreads for .30. Condors sold for 1.10 this morning. Stop was still 17 points below the day’s low thus far, but steering clear of the Fed minutes release coming in 45 minutes.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 4365/4385-4480/4500 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 23.2%

FOMC minutes released today at 2pm ET, so I don’t expect a lot of decay before then.

Removing some risk

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 15th 4410/4390 put spreads for .10. Took off one of the put spreads so I’m not doubled up. Leaving everything else for expiration.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 4390/4410-4490/4510 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 22.1%, 1 hour 18 minutes after open.

I decided to wait on this as market dropped in middle of night and it seemed it would drop more after open. This is in addition to the condor sold yesterday, which is still open.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX 4425/4445-4510/4530 condors, sold earlier today for 1.00 as a roll.

Keeping the Aug 15th 4395/4415-4535/4555 condors for 1.15 for tomorrow. Deltas ended day at -.03 +.06

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 4395/4415-4535/4555 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 15.3%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 14th 4500/4520 call spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.20 this morning. Going to sell another condor.

#rolling

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 4390/4410-4500/4520 condors for 1.20, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 22.3%

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Both condors expiring worthless. I chose not to close either since market made no threatening moves. I’m also not selling for Monday now, since IV on Monday options is always super low on Friday afternoons, only 9.35% at 15 minutes before close.

Over last couple weeks, some of the more traditional width of 6-delta condors returned, with ability to get 100 or more points even if selling same-day. Hope that remains.

Economic Calendar for 8/14-8/18

Screen Shot 2023-08-11 at 6.30.44 AM
Screen Shot 2023-08-11 at 6.30.57 AM

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 11th 4380/4400-4510/4530 condors for 0.974, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 25.9%

This is inside the condor I sold yesterday for 1.20 (in the post below). I am planning on making this a “roll”, so I will close the other one… order in now to close for .25.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4365/4385-4525/4545 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4463, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 19.1%

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 10th 4430/4410 put spreads for .30, condors sold this morning for 1.15

My stop was NOT hit, but this stair-stepping down has me nervous I’ll face a bigger loss before the close.

CPI report & Jobless claims

July inflation was +0.2%, as expected. +3.2% year over year, versus 3.3 expected.
Weekly jobless claims higher than expected: 248K versus 230K estimated

SPX same day

#SPX1dte About three minutes after CPI report release: Sold to Open $SPX Aug 10th 4410/4430-4555/4575 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 28.2%.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 9th 4460/4440 put spreads for 2.60. Condors sold this morning for .90. That wiped away most profit for the week, I am now at +0.44.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 4440/4460-4545/4565 condors for .90, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 19%

SPX removing risk

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 8th 4435/4415 put spreads for .30. This is from condors sold yesterday. Stop has not been hit, but removing the double downside risk, leaving today’s 4440/4420 spreads in place.

Missed the Upside Warning cancelation

#VIXindicator In updating my charts today, I see that I missed the cancelation of the Upside Warning last Thursday, August 3rd, when the $VIX spiked over 25% than the 2-day closing low. I have updated the information on the sidebar to the right.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 4420/4440-4535/4555 condors for .95, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 22%

I still have 4415/4435 put spreads, so double risk on downside. Call spreads were more threatened at the close so I closed them, but then market dropped overnight, and IV is higher.

SPXpire

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Aug 7th 4420/4440-4530/4550 condors, sold this morning for 1.00

Bought to close $SPX Aug 8th 4555/4575 call spreads for .35. Condors sold this morning for 1.05. Delta of the calls was .05, puts .02. So taking off most threatened side and leaving puts for expiration tomorrow.

Economic Calendar of 8/7 – 8/11

Screen Shot 2023-08-07 at 11.37.34 AM
Screen Shot 2023-08-07 at 11.37.50 AM

SPX next day

$SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 4415/4435-4555/4575 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 15%, SPX at 4505.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 4420/4440-4530/4550 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 21.3%

July Jobs Report

#Jobs — Lower than expected, but steady growth continues.

Gain of +187,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 200K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.5%, vs expected no change
U6 unemployment 6.7%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.6% for 5th straight month
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.4% increase over the year, stronger than expected

May jobs revised down by -25K to +281K
June jobs revised down by -24K to +185K

Risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 4445/4425 put spreads for .10. Condors sold this morning for 1.10

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 4425/4445-4545/4565 condors for 1.10, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 23.35%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 4505/4485 put spreads for 1.60. Condors sold this morning for 1.00.

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 4485/4505-4600/4620 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 22.1%

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 4510/4530-4610/4630 condors for .95, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 19.1%

#riskreversal

Put Risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 1st 4535/4515 put spreads for .45. Condors sold earlier for 1.30.

Put deltas got up to -.09 a few minutes ago, but dropped to -.06 when I was filled. Call strike is +.04 so I will let that sit overnight. I will look to reload put side in the morning.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 4515/4535-4625/4645 condors for 1.30, deltas -.07 +.07

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 31st 4530/4550-4620/4640 condors for .876, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 17.65%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 28 4600/4620 call spreads for 1.60. Condors sold this morning for 1.00.

Horrible week due to my major error yesterday. I had ruminated in the past that when I hit midweek with profit target already met, I need to be overly careful on Thursday and Friday. I forgot that, and when I should have closed put spread to remove risk, I instead sold a next-day condor. That error sucked 10.00 out of my accounts when market took a mid-day dive.

If today turns out to be a super rally I will take profits on the long Aug 2nd calls I entered this morning.

SPX 3-dte R/R

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal I can’t see a strong reason for yesterday’s dip, and with $VIX resuming its downward trend this morning, it’s possible the Upside Warning is still strong.

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 4465/4445 put spreads
Bought to Open Aug 2nd 4650/4670 call spreads
Total DEBIT -.25

SPX same day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 28th 4495/4515-4600/4620 condors for 1.00. Deltas -.08 +.06, IV 19.3%

This should have been 1.05 or 1.10, I made an entry error and got filled for 1.00.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 27th 4560/4540 put spreads for 4.00. Major suckage. I was so happy to be up +4.00 on a Wednesday, and it all goes up in smoke on a day I was trying to be careful.

Economic Calendar week of 7/31 – 8/4

Jobs report for June released FRIDAY morning

Screen Shot 2023-07-27 at 10.01.43 AM
Screen Shot 2023-07-27 at 10.01.52 AM

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 28th 4520/4540-4640/4660 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4595, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 12.9%

My bullish call fizzled out quickly so now focused on tomorrow.

SPX risk reversal

#SPX1dte As yesterday’s trades expired worthless I am at +4.00 for the week, exceeding my $3 target. I did not want to risk that by selling a condor the evening after the Fed decision, which often triggers an overnight move. Sure enough, the market rose overnight and has now shown more strength after economic news.

Although we may be too toppy to continue higher today, I am still entering a bullish trade. I had to go with a pretty wide delta disparity to avoid paying a high debit.

Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 4560/4540 put spreads, delta -.15
Bought to Open July 27th 4635/4655 call spreads, delta +.05
Total DEBIT -.45, IV 17.8%

I don’t expect to reach the short call strike but getting close would allow for 2.00 to 4.00 in profit.

Economic news

Jobless claims at 221,000 vs estimate of 235,000.
Q2 U.S. GDP +2.4% vs estimate of 2.0%

Market already higher overnight is now spiking more.

SPX put spread

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 4520/4500 put spreads for 1.25. At time of fill: SPX at 4557, delta -.12

Fed Risk/Reversal

#SPX1dte Betting that we rise into the announcement and spike higher from there.

Sold to open $SPX July 26th 4510/4490, delta -.07
Bought to Open July 26th 4615/4635 call spreads, delta +.05

Total credit on trade: +.25

SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 25th 4590 calls for .30. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Also put spread sold this morning for .60, so profit on day 1.35

SPX same day add-on

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 4540/4520 put spreads for .60. This is in addition to my condor sold yesterday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4552, IV 11.4%, deltas -.07 +.07

Expiring: July 24th 4490/4510-4575/4595 condors. sold this morning for 1.15