#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX May 18th 4100/4120-4195/4215 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.08
Author Archives: Jeff
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX May 17th 4100/4120-4185/4205 condors, sold a couple hours earlier for .70
Waiting for morning for Thursday trade.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 17th 4165/4185 call spreads for 2.20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. That makes me flat for the week, only two days to go. I have had three losing weeks in a row, let this not become a fourth.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 17th 4050/4070-4165/4185 condors for 1.10, SPX at 4125, deltas -.06 +.07
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX May 15th 4030/4050-4165/4185 condors, sold Friday for 1.10
Spread is cheap and narrow for tomorrow so I will wait to sell in the morning
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 4030/4050-4165/4185 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06.
Sorry forgot to press “Post” on Friday.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 12th 4070/4050 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 12th 4050/4070-4175/4195 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4127, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Closed put side for .10.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 11th 4065/4085-4180/4200 condors for 1.15, delta -.07 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC put side for 6.55. I honestly have no excuse for this, so I won’t try to make one.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 4200/4220 call spreads for .45, when delta was +.04.
Looking to sell the 4085/4065 put spreads.
April CPI report
Core CPI up 5.5%, year over year, as expected.
Non-core up 4.9%, vs 5.0% expected.
Up 0.4% in April.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX May 9th 4070/4090-4160/4180 condors sold this morning for 1.30,
I will sell tomorrow after the CPI reaction settles in.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 9th 4070/4090-4160/4180 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.09. Banking on another quiet day before CPI report, so deltas are both aggressive and width is only 70 points.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX May 8th 4080/4100-4180/4200 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.
At 45 minutes before closing bell, the 6-delta condor for tomorrow was 95 points wide and worth about .90. Both numbers too low, so there seems to currently be no benefit in selling in afternoon. I will wait again for morning.
Then Wednesday morning before the bell we have the CPI report.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX May 8th 4080/4100-4180/4200 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09, +.06.
Going one strike more aggressive on put side after Friday’s rally.
SPX no trade
#SPX1dte After only a couple days of decent width (155 points for today’s trade, which got stopped out anyway), it’s pretty frustrating to see only a 110 pt spread for a weekend trade. I’m not going to do it. I will sell Monday morning.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 5th 3985/3965 put spreads for .05. Call side flirting with my stop point so I’m watching.
April Jobs Report
#Jobs — Higher than expected, record low UE, lost -149K on prior month revisions.
Gain of +253,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 180K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.4%, tied for lowest since 1969, vs. expected gain to 3.6%
U6 unemployment 6.6%, down by 0.1
Labor force participation 62.6%, same as last month
Average hourly earnings up by 0.5%; 4.4% increase over the year; both 0.2% than expected..
March jobs revised down by -71K to +165K
February jobs revised down by -78K to +248K
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 5th 3965/3985-4140/4160 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.06
Width and premium have returned to this trade in recent days.
Expiring: May 4th 3990/4010-4160/4180 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
Jobs Report tomorrow!
SPX-1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 4th 3990/4010-4160/4180 condors for 1.15, delta -.06 +.05. Only partial fill so far.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning, which went into effect on March 30th, was canceled today when $VIX spiked above 19.73, which is 25% above Friday’s close.
This UpW produced a 3.4% increase from the SPX close on March 30th to yesterday’s high of 4,186.93.
If we close with VIX above 19.73 it will mean a Downside Warning.
Tail spin continues
#SPX1dte. No, I didn’t get out. I was driving to work when this happened.
Obviously, I need to stop this tail spin. No trade for tomorrow anyway, due to Fed decision. But most likely I need to do two things: (1) get back to basics with condors, even if low premium, and (2) not trade if I can’t be by the computer all morning.
Something changed in the market and SPX options a couple weeks ago. It completely uprooted my strategy which had been going very strong since last summer. I clearly was not ready for that change. I was going on my first quarter mentality of “everything’s fine every day.” It was, and now it isn’t.
As for today, I’m only left to hope for a bounce. That probability is high enough to stop me from closing now for 15.00+.
And now a writers strike has hit Hollywood, so I’m also out of a job!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 2nd 4135/4115 put spreads for .80. SPX at 4167, delta -.10.
After last week’s debacle and the persistency of narrow-width condors, I legged in today and am doing this tomorrow. I will only sell call spread today if we spike higher in the last 23 minutes. Otherwise will wait for morning.
Expiring: May 1st 4115/4135-4210/4230 condors, legged into for total of 1.20 this morning
SPX 1-dte SAME DAY
#SPX1dte Thirty minutes after open bell, sold to Open $SPX May 1st 4135/4115 put spreads for .75.
Not sure if I’ll sell a call side.
I made a graph
Below is some analysis of year-to-date performance of my #SPX1dte strategy. It compares the width of my condor (number of SPX points between short strikes, ranging from 70 to 305), and premium collected (ranging from .85 to 1.80, but shown on chart as 85.00 to 180.00). The VIX daily closing price is also shown at top for reference.
The main finding is that the orange bars, representing width, have dropped a lot in recent weeks. Premium used to be consistently below width, and now it is consistenly higher. Volatility struck this week but we were not able to get an increase in width, which led to my terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week.
Not my week
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 26th 4165/4185 call spreads for 4.20. Absolutely brutal.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 28th 4055/4075-4165/4185 condors for .85
Pain
#SPX1dte – Well, today is the type of day I try to avoid at all costs. My first major failure in many months.
The first quarter of the year was so quiet that 100% of my stops turned out to be unnecessary. So I loosened up and let some days breech my stop and stayed in the trade. Then we got a downside warning and I started stopping out again, and to great benefit. However, I was still taking a more relaxed approach, not acting quickly when stop was first touched and waiting for a pullback.
This week included THREE stops, all of which would have been less costly had I acted soon after the first breech.
So lesson has been learned. I will be reacting quickly on stops moving forward, and only slightly relaxed after a period of complacency. Even then, I won’t allow my hope for a intraday reversal guide my strategy.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 27th 4105/4125 call spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20
Whipsaw week, two stop outs on opposite ends. After the quick surge from 4089 to 4096, stopped out on the pull back.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 27th 3970/3990-4105/4125 condors for 1.20. Deltas reversed from -.06 +.07 to be -.07 +.06 between entering order and the fill.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 26th 4025/4005 put spreads for .10. Condors sold this morning for 1.20.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 26th 4005/4025-4125/4145 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.07.
Futures were fairly calm over night, so perhaps yesterday was an isolated event. Regardless I will be watching closely today.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 25th 4085/4065 put spreads for 4.60. Condors sold this morning for 1.10.
Biggest debit of 2023 thus far. May be my first losing week of the year, but I think I can get it to be a bit on positive side..
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Apr 25th 4065/4085-4155/4175 condors for 1.10, deltas -.07 +.08
Going a little looser on deltas to get some premium, but certainly higher risk to whippy days.
VIX one-day index launches
Further to Iceman’s post from Friday, the new one-day $VIX index launched this morning, ticker $VIX1D
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cboe-global-markets-launches-1-day-volatility-index-designed-to-measure-volatility-over-current-trading-day-301805109.html
SPX same day
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Apr 24th 4070/4090-4165/4185 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Not trading for Monday, gonna wait for the morning.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX April 21st 4055/4035 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05. Risk still ON for call side, but it seems the precipitous moves this week have been downward.
Lesson learned last week: If I get to the end of the week and I’m at or above my 3.00 target, lean toward taking risk off and ending the week strong, rather than last week when the final two hours of day chopped 2.20 off my week.
Provided no upside surge today, week’s profit is +4.00
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 21st 4035/4055-4165/4185 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4120, deltas -.06 +.07
Expiring: Apr 20th 4075/4095-4205/4225 condors, sold yesterday for .90
PACW put spread
#speculation #bullputspreads #assignment
Sold this $PACW Apr 21st 15/10 put spread for 3.70 on March 17th, and it fizzled out, failing to get above 11 until yesterday. I was on a plane when it peaked at 11.71 so didn’t close. Last night, ASSIGNED on the short puts on over half of the spreads. Today, looking to close remaining SPREADS for 3.50, breakeven covering commissions. Also will look to sell stock if we get over 11.50, which would be effectively the same. Earnings are next week so no interest in holding on to the stock longer.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 20th 4075/4095-4205/4225 condors for .90. SPX at 4156. Deltas -.06 +.06. Only partial fill so far but about to board a plane. That’s why I’m selling earlier than usual.
Expected to Expire: Apr 19th 4090/4110-4200/4220 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
SPX out
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 18th 4140/4120 put spreads for .85. Sold for 1.30 this morning.
Market just too unstable and close to my strike. I will post tomorrow’s trade in comments, but waiting until final minutes of the day.
SPX stop and roll
SPX 1-dte SAME DAY
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX 4075/4095-4175/4195 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX April 13th 4015/4035-4150/4170 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Profit for week: +4.15
No trade for Friday as I will be on a plane to Denver in the morning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 13th 4015/4035-4150/4170 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4095, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: April 12th 4050/4070-4185/4205 condors, sold this morning for 1.10
New SPX high
#Market #VIXIndicator This morning we hit a new high since the last Downside Warning, exceeding the April 4th peak. Next stop might be the Feb 2nd high of 4195.
SPX 1-dte SAME DAY
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX April 12th 4050/4070-4185/4205 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 1-dte
#Expiring: $SPX Apr 11th 4025/4045-4155/4175 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20
No trade yet for tomorrow; I will place one after the CPI report is released in the morning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 11th 4025/4045-4155/4175 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4100, deltas -.07 +.05
Expiring: Apr 10th 4025/4045-4115/4135 condors, sold this morning for .80
SPX 1-dte
Changed my mind.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 10th 4025/4045-4115/4135 condors for .80. Deltas -.06 + .06, SPX at 4082.
Can’t Sell
#SPX1dte Something changed with my interface at Interactive Brokers and I cannot execute an $SPX trade in the pre-market. I will have to call them. In meantime, I will consider a trade after the open.
March Jobs Report
#Jobs — Down from February, meeting expectations.
Gain of +236,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 238K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.5%, vs. expected hold at 3.6%
U6 unemployment 6.7%, down by 0.1
Labor force participation 62.6%, up by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; 4.2% increase over the year, lowest since June 2021.
February jobs revised down up +15K to +326K
January jobs revised down by -32K to +472K
Short week profit
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX April 6th 4015/4035-4135/4155 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Week’s profit is +4.30.
No trade for Monday, going to stay clear of long weekend and tomorrow’s #Jobs report.
My $PACW 15/10 bull credit spread expires 4/21 and so far, no good. Sold for 3.70, now running about 4.30. I need another pop up towards 14 to get out, or a two-week slow drift up would be ok too.
SPX 1-dte
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 5th 4025/4045-4150/4170 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4096, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX April 4th 4075/4055 put spreads for .60. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
My stop was hit… I think it’s likely the lows of the day are in, but after last Friday’s disappointment I’m playing it safe this week.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 4th 4055/4075-4170/4190 condors for 1.25, SPX at 4122, deltas -.08 +.06
Expiring: April 3rd 4005/4025-4160/4180 condors, sold Friday for 1.45
Stopped out
#SPX1dte I’m calling this my first sucky trade of 2023. I tempted fate and erased almost all profit from the week.
BTC $SPX March 31st 4100 call for 4.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.00.
Now that I’ve done that, there’s an excellent chance it will keep falling and make my move unnecessary.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX April 3rd 4005/4025-4160/4180 condors for 1.45, SPX at 4096, deltas -.07, +.06
Sold a bit early to grab so extra premium… fill on the spike up to 4096.
I’m still carrying my 4100 call short for today… kinda thought I’d be safe but now I need to get out!
Upside Warning takes effect
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect at the close today after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.
Here is data on last several Upside Warnings.
Nov 23, 2022: close on that day: 4,027. Subsequent high was 4195 on Feb 2. 47 trading days, +4.2%
Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 31st 3960/3980-4100/4120 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4050, deltas -.06 +.06
March 30th 3975/3995-4085/4105 condors, sold this morning for 1.25
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 30th (same day) 3975/3995-4085/4105 condors for 1.25, deltas -.07 +.07
Pretty tight range, only 90 points between shorts, but lower premium and volatility should mean lower ATR
SPX wait
#SPX1dte I’m going to wait until morning for my condor since I’m only seeing about 1.10 in premium for a spread that’s only 120 wide. After today, we could look at either a pullback or another rally tomorrow.
Expiring: $SPX March 29th 3945/3965-4045/4065 condors, sold this morning for 1.30. Loss on day -.30
SPX triage
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX same day March 29th 3945/3965-4045/4065 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4013, deltas -.09 +.07
This is a hedge, partial roll, what ever you wanna call it. I will take a loss on the call side of today’s spread (barring sharp drop) so adding a new spread to recoup some of expected loss.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator I didn’t notice this until this morning, but futures are certainly showing it. The Downside Warning was canceled at the close yesterday with the $VIX low below 20.00.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 29th 3880/3900-4020/4040 condors for 1.20, SPX at 3965, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 28th 3915/3895 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.40.
My stop was NOT hit, but taking risk off after seeing $VIX spike in last hour.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 28th 3895/3915-4045/4065 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3985, deltas -.06 +.06
The 6 deltas are in tightest range in a while, only 130 points apart.
Expiring: March 27th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors, sold Friday for 1.40
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 27th 3860/3880-4040/4060 condors for 1.40, SPX at 3970, deltas -.06 +.06
This week’s profit, +4.45
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 3845/3825 put spreads for .15. Condors sold yesterday for 1.40.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 24th 3825/3845-4035/4055 condors for 1.40, SPX 3954, deltas -.06 +.06.
In time it took me to type this, deltas dropped to -.05 +.05
Options Bistro 