#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 15th 4285/4305-4405/4425 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 24.2%
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX put spread
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 14th 4320/4300 put spreads for .95, filled at 10:16am, delta -.09
I’m expecting a rise higher after Fed announcement, so I may only sell put side today.
SPX long positions
#SPX1dte Sold to close HALF of position: $SPX June 16th 4450/4470 call spreads for 1.20. #RiskReversal entered on June 5th for -.30 debit. I’ll make a decision later today on how long to hold second half, since this expires Friday.
I have the same long spread for June 23rd expiry, also a R/R entered for -.30 debit. Currently trading at +2.50, so I’ll give it room to grow.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 13th 4280/4300-4400/4420 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09 +.05, IV 24.5%.
Sold four and a half minutes after CPI data release.
CPI year over year was +4.0%, as expected. A pause in interest rate hikes is expected in tomorrow’s announcement.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte More evidence we should close legs when it’s cheap and market is showing directional bias. This surge over the last hour hit my stop, so bought to close $SPX Jun 12th 4345 calls for .30.
I think it is probable that we’ll see a strong day tomorrow, after the CPI report is released. The report will likely be a lower number, reflecting the downward trend, and it should signal a dovish Fed decision on Wednesday. I have two long positions that would benefit, and I’ll decide how to trade the same-day based on the reaction.
New highs
$SPX just broke through the high of last August. We are now at the highest level since April 2022. Next stop is 4,637.30 high from March 29, 2022.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 12th 4250/4270-4345/4365 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06 IV 18.2%
SPX down and out
#SPX1dte Well, that kinda blew up in my face… it was only a glancing blow but sucks nonetheless. BTC 4290/4270 put spreads for 2.50.
Today will likely be one where I was stopped out on both ends but the day will end safely in between… however, it’s only because I tried the #ReverseRoll. But it reduced my week from being best in 4 months to just being average.
Last Friday made my week, this one torpedoed it.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte. Bought to close call side for 1.30. Stop not yet hit when I closed this, but I’m not letting a Friday ruin a good week. $TICK has been below zero most of the day but $VIX dropping and $SPX moving higher. This may be the start of the rally we’ve been waiting for.
Looking to enter a couple more bullish positions, maybe another put spread for today and another long term #RiskReversal since the one I bought on Monday is fizzling out.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 9th 4235/4255-4335/4355 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 19%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jun 8th 4310 calls for .10. Got a good week going so not gonna let a surprise move ruin it.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 8th 4210/4230-4310/4330 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 19.4%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close put side for .10… my stop was not hit but it got close, so taking risk off as I will be away from computer into close. Profit for day is 1.15.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 7th 4230/4250-4320/4340 condors for 1.25, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 18.9%
This is more aggressive on deltas to get some premium. Tight range established last couple of days needs to continue for this trade to succeed.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 6th 4215/4235-4310/4330 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 19.3%.
The IV for today’s chain was only 12.9% before the close yesterday. That extra IV that comes in overnight is why these morning trades have been the better bet. But now that the market isn’t swinging much overnight the choice is tougher. For the same premium 15 minutes before yesterday’s close, I could have gotten 5 more points on put side and 10 more on call side (-.06 +.06 deltas)
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator An Upside Warning went into effect at the close on Monday, meaning probable upside to the market in coming days or weeks. This one comes after the previous UpW was canceled on May 2nd, but no Downside Warning resulted. The market chopped around for a month but stayed fairly strong.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Today’s same-day trade expiring, sold this morning for 1.05. It still looks like a better bet to sell in the morning, as afternoon trades give slightly LESS premium per delta, and only 5 to 10 points of extra width.
Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte Adding a longer term bullish position:
Sold to open $SPX Jun 16th 4075/4055 put spreads
Bought to open $SPX Jun 16th 4450/4470 call spreads
Net DEBIT .30
I’ll use expected move for the put side stop-out, which is currently 91 points, so SPX 4166. I’ll look for 5.00 or more if we fly up this week, but lower my goal if we stall out or rise slowly.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 5th 4220/4240-4320/4340 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 19.8%
SPX profit
#SPX1dte Sold to close the remaining call spreads for 5.00 and 6.00, with a few contracts expiring for 0.00. My main account saw composite profit of 2.78 on the trade.
Tough decisions being long when high of day and close are ATM. Obviously sold the first half too cheaply but you can only say that in hindsight. I have tried these trades many times and this is a rare time I was correct about the move and how far it would go.
Lock in
#SPX1dte Sold to close HALF my long call spreads for 2.20. This locks in +.95 of profit on the whole trade. I’m going to give it time now to see if we can reach the 4285 short strike.
May Jobs Report
#Jobs — Higher than expected again. And a gain of +94K in prior month revisions.
Gain of +339,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up by 0.3 to 3.7%, higher than expected gain to 3.5%
U6 unemployment 6.7%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation 62.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; 4.3% increase over the year, 0.1 less than expected.
March jobs revised up by +53K to +217K
April jobs revised up by +41K to +294K
Taking a shot
#SPX1dte After losing the week’s profits yesterday on the rip higher, I’m taking a shot today that the jobs report will release us to go even higher, now that debt ceiling is resolved. Went with #RiskReversal for upside.
Sold to Open $SPX June 2nd 4185/4165 put spreads
Bought to open $SPX June 2nd 4285/4305 call spreads
Total DEBIT -0.15
deltas -.07 +.05
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC call side for 2.00
Pretty deep dip in $VIX happening, could finally be the push higher that debt ceiling resolution will trigger.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 1st 4120/4140-4225/4245 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.07
Risk off
#SPX1dte BTC put side for .10.
In other news, the long call spread I bought last week is at zilch. Best chance to sell was yesterday morning, but I was holding out for a bit more. Knocks 90 cents off my week.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 31st 4120/4140-4240/4260 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX May 30th 4150/4170-4270/4290 condors, sold this morning for 1.15
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 30th 4150/4170-4270/4290 condors for 1.15, delta -.07 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC call side for 1.70.
That drops weekly profit to be only 2.05. But breaks my 4-week losing streak. I guess the claw back will be slow and long.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 26th 4075/4095-4205/4225 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 27.7%
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte BTC call side for .10
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 25th 4060/4080-4195/4215 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 28.4%
Risk off
#SPX1dte BTC puts for .15. I’m sticking with morning trades at least until debt ceiling talks either crash or spike the market.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 24th 4060/4080-4185/4205 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 23rd 4145/4125 put spreads for 1.40. Condors opened this morning for 1.35, so with call closure loss is -.15 for the day.
I may have to even get tighter with risk-off closures. I was going for .10 but could have closed for .20.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 23rd 4225/4245 call spreads for .10. Order in to close puts for same.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 23rd 4125/4145-4225/4245 condors for 1.35, deltas -.08 +.08
Long shot
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX June 2nd 4330/4350 call spreads for .90. I want to add occasional long spreads to hedge the gut punch this strategy can deliver. This one is speculation that a debt ceiling deal will be reached this week and give us short-term pop higher.
VIX 1-day so far
Here is the 30-minute chart of the entire history of $VIX1D. Starts low and ends high every single day except for one.
Risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 22nd 4235/4255 call spreads for .10. Same order is in for the puts.
Another day of whipsaw, although manageable. Until debt ceiling issue is resolved, I’m taking safest route possible and closing wings when i can.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sol to Open $SPOX May 22nd 4135/4155-4235/4255 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Well, wrong again, and a fourth week of losses. I still have a long shot to make some money on the long call spread but looking pretty doubtful.
Bought to close $SPX May 19th 4175/4155 put spreads for 2.40.
I’m frankly stunned at how difficult this became compared to the first quarter of the year.
SPX risk reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Yesterday we got our first $VIX close of three needed to trigger a new Upside Warning. So after getting stopped out of short call spread at the close, I am going bullish today.
Sold to Open $SPX May 19th 4175/4155 put spread for 1.15
Bought to open May 19th 4245/4265 call spreads for .95
Net credit: +.20
Looking to sell the first half for around 2.00 and then wait to see what happens for second half.
If I am wrong, then put side stop is currently at 4198.
SPX start and stop
#SPX1dte With approx 30 minutes left in session, sold to Open $SPX May 19th 4105/4125-4230/4350 condors for 1.10, deltas -.08 +.07.
Then, SPX erupted, topping out over 4200, forcing a stop of the call side. Closed for 1.50 shortly after the closing bell.
May look to add a new call side in the morning, either short or long.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Another day, another stop-out. BTC $SPX 4195/4215 call spreads for 2.30. Condors sold this morning for 1.15.
The market is just not offering the condor-width or the premium for the level of swings we are seeing intraday. After placing this trade in pre-market, I was almost stopped out to DOWN side, then after the open we have swung all the way up to stop out on UP side.
I hope this is a temporary issue and that the next correction (or decent pullback) will put us back to where we’ve been for a few years now. As it stands now, I am stuck in an irreversible slump.
And as happened yesterday, right at the moment I determine I must not let the SPX go further against me and to bite the bullet, the reversal comes almost immediately.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX May 18th 4100/4120-4195/4215 condors for 1.15, deltas -.08 +.08
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX May 17th 4100/4120-4185/4205 condors, sold a couple hours earlier for .70
Waiting for morning for Thursday trade.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 17th 4165/4185 call spreads for 2.20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. That makes me flat for the week, only two days to go. I have had three losing weeks in a row, let this not become a fourth.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 17th 4050/4070-4165/4185 condors for 1.10, SPX at 4125, deltas -.06 +.07
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX May 15th 4030/4050-4165/4185 condors, sold Friday for 1.10
Spread is cheap and narrow for tomorrow so I will wait to sell in the morning
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 4030/4050-4165/4185 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06.
Sorry forgot to press “Post” on Friday.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 12th 4070/4050 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.05.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 12th 4050/4070-4175/4195 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4127, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Closed put side for .10.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 11th 4065/4085-4180/4200 condors for 1.15, delta -.07 +.06
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC put side for 6.55. I honestly have no excuse for this, so I won’t try to make one.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 4200/4220 call spreads for .45, when delta was +.04.
Looking to sell the 4085/4065 put spreads.
April CPI report
Core CPI up 5.5%, year over year, as expected.
Non-core up 4.9%, vs 5.0% expected.
Up 0.4% in April.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX May 9th 4070/4090-4160/4180 condors sold this morning for 1.30,
I will sell tomorrow after the CPI reaction settles in.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 9th 4070/4090-4160/4180 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.09. Banking on another quiet day before CPI report, so deltas are both aggressive and width is only 70 points.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: $SPX May 8th 4080/4100-4180/4200 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.
At 45 minutes before closing bell, the 6-delta condor for tomorrow was 95 points wide and worth about .90. Both numbers too low, so there seems to currently be no benefit in selling in afternoon. I will wait again for morning.
Then Wednesday morning before the bell we have the CPI report.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX May 8th 4080/4100-4180/4200 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09, +.06.
Going one strike more aggressive on put side after Friday’s rally.
SPX no trade
#SPX1dte After only a couple days of decent width (155 points for today’s trade, which got stopped out anyway), it’s pretty frustrating to see only a 110 pt spread for a weekend trade. I’m not going to do it. I will sell Monday morning.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 5th 3985/3965 put spreads for .05. Call side flirting with my stop point so I’m watching.
April Jobs Report
#Jobs — Higher than expected, record low UE, lost -149K on prior month revisions.
Gain of +253,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 180K
Unemployment down by 0.1 to 3.4%, tied for lowest since 1969, vs. expected gain to 3.6%
U6 unemployment 6.6%, down by 0.1
Labor force participation 62.6%, same as last month
Average hourly earnings up by 0.5%; 4.4% increase over the year; both 0.2% than expected..
March jobs revised down by -71K to +165K
February jobs revised down by -78K to +248K
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 5th 3965/3985-4140/4160 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.06
Width and premium have returned to this trade in recent days.
Expiring: May 4th 3990/4010-4160/4180 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
Jobs Report tomorrow!
SPX-1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 4th 3990/4010-4160/4180 condors for 1.15, delta -.06 +.05. Only partial fill so far.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning, which went into effect on March 30th, was canceled today when $VIX spiked above 19.73, which is 25% above Friday’s close.
This UpW produced a 3.4% increase from the SPX close on March 30th to yesterday’s high of 4,186.93.
If we close with VIX above 19.73 it will mean a Downside Warning.
Tail spin continues
#SPX1dte. No, I didn’t get out. I was driving to work when this happened.
Obviously, I need to stop this tail spin. No trade for tomorrow anyway, due to Fed decision. But most likely I need to do two things: (1) get back to basics with condors, even if low premium, and (2) not trade if I can’t be by the computer all morning.
Something changed in the market and SPX options a couple weeks ago. It completely uprooted my strategy which had been going very strong since last summer. I clearly was not ready for that change. I was going on my first quarter mentality of “everything’s fine every day.” It was, and now it isn’t.
As for today, I’m only left to hope for a bounce. That probability is high enough to stop me from closing now for 15.00+.
And now a writers strike has hit Hollywood, so I’m also out of a job!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 2nd 4135/4115 put spreads for .80. SPX at 4167, delta -.10.
After last week’s debacle and the persistency of narrow-width condors, I legged in today and am doing this tomorrow. I will only sell call spread today if we spike higher in the last 23 minutes. Otherwise will wait for morning.
Expiring: May 1st 4115/4135-4210/4230 condors, legged into for total of 1.20 this morning
SPX 1-dte SAME DAY
#SPX1dte Thirty minutes after open bell, sold to Open $SPX May 1st 4135/4115 put spreads for .75.
Not sure if I’ll sell a call side.
I made a graph
Below is some analysis of year-to-date performance of my #SPX1dte strategy. It compares the width of my condor (number of SPX points between short strikes, ranging from 70 to 305), and premium collected (ranging from .85 to 1.80, but shown on chart as 85.00 to 180.00). The VIX daily closing price is also shown at top for reference.
The main finding is that the orange bars, representing width, have dropped a lot in recent weeks. Premium used to be consistently below width, and now it is consistenly higher. Volatility struck this week but we were not able to get an increase in width, which led to my terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week.
Not my week
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 26th 4165/4185 call spreads for 4.20. Absolutely brutal.
Options Bistro 