SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Sept 1st 4080/4060 put spreads for 17.85. Condors bought for 17.80 last Friday. So I’m breakeven now, holding calls until tomorrow in case we have any spike up in the morning.

#SPX1dte Sold to OPEN Aug 31st 3865/3885-4055/4075 condors for 1.50, SPX at 3980, IV 26.3%, deltas -.05 +.07

SPX1-dte

#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Aug 29th 3925/3945-4145/4165 condors, sold Friday for 1.20.

No trade for Tuesday as I will be on a flight.

No Warning, actually

#VIXindicator Turned out I made an error on Friday… wasn’t watching the numbers closely enough, but there was no Downside Warning. Despite the big drop, the $VIX action wasn’t as strong as you might expect and fell short of the 27.23 close required to fire the Warning. That level is still in effect today as a closing trigger.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought right before the bell: $SPX Sept 1 4060/4080-4090/4110 condors for 17.80.

#SPX1dte Sold right after the bell: $SPX Aug 29th 3925/3945-4145/4165 condors for 1.20, SPX close 4057, IV 17%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPXdte Put side stopped, bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 4080/4060 put spreads for 1.05. Condors sold for 1.70 yesterday.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte After weeks of success I screwed up pretty badly today on this long condor. After missing the chance to exit on the big swings during Powell’s speech, I felt the action was bullish so wanted to exit the put spreads first. I did for 4.00 as it started down, but then it dropped WAY down. Now it looks like no bounce will come, or at least not one big enough to make the 4165/4185 call side profitable enough.

My recent strategy has been going well, using #SPX1dte as a base and then throwing in a long condor about once per week. However, I’m wary that the long strategy is inherently more risky. The best bet is to try to exit before expiration day, and indeed, today is the first week in awhile where I waited for expiration day. I did that because the week was pretty flat, giving me no obvious swings with which to exit.

During Powell’s speech, when we dropped, I set an order to sell the put spreads at 8.00. We had just hit about 8.50 so was trying to pick a bottom. Turns out I did pick it, but set my order a few seconds too late as the bounce began. Then we bounced way up and could have exited for 13.00 or more. That would have ended my day. But alas, now I’m pretty much screwed.

I don’t like relying on a strategy that is that fragile. The loss I’ll take today, as much as 13.75, is made up by the last few weeks of profit on this 5-dte trade, but it is a shame that my overall progress takes a big step back. So what I’ve determined is that I need to take a loss on the day before expiration if the SPX is still near the center of my condor. Typically, that would result in a 1.00 to 3.00 loss, which is completely acceptable. Going into expiration day could mean a big win, but only if you play the swings exactly right. So that risk of big loss is too great to risk.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 4060/4080-4280/4300 condors for 1.70, SPX at 4189, IV 29.3%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Aug 25th 4060/4080-4205/4220 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte One of these days I’m gonna pick the RIGHT day to go long. Today wasn’t it. So I’m selling a 1-hour-50-minute condor to recoup some loss: Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 4100/4120-4165/4185 condors for .90, with SPX at 4139.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Such a quiet day after two stormy ones… I decided to go LONG on tomorrow’s as I can’t imagine two days like this in a row.

Bought to open $SPX Aug 24th 4030/4050-4200/4220 condors for 1.25. Deltas -.05 +.05

Expired: Aug 23rd 4040/4060-4210/4230 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXindicator If $VIX closes at 24.45 or higher it will be Downside Warning.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 26th 4135/4155-4165/4185 condors for 17.75, SPX at 4143.

Will add 1-dte trade to comments when I sell in a couple hours.

#spx1dte

SPX stopped – Upside Warning ending?

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 22nd 4150/4130 put spreads for 3.40. Condors sold for 1.45 on Friday.

#VIXindicator Thus far the $SPX peaked at 4325 on the 16th, a 4.3% rise from the start of the Upside Warning on the 5th. It would take an intraday $VIX peak of 24.45 today to cancel the UpW.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 22nd 4130/4150-4295/4315 condors for 1.45.

Week-end results:
#SPX1dte: 2 wins, 2 losses, +1.70
#SPX5dte: 1 win, +3.10

TOTAL +4.80

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Thursday’s condor expired, sold Wednesday for 1.20.

No trade for Friday as I’m vacationing in Vancouver BC at the moment. It was over 95 degrees here today!

SPX1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 4180/4200-4345/4365 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4276, IV 19.8%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 17th 4230/4210 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 4210/4230-4360/4380 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4306, IV 17.9%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Aug 16th 4215/4235-4350/4370 condors, sold yesterday for 1.60.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 4215/4235-4350/4370 condors for 1.60, SPX at 4298, deltas -.07 +.08, IV 17.4%

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 15th 4310/4330 call spreads for 1.25. Condors sold for .95 this morning.

Selling these in the morning definitely more difficult now, so I can’t be forgetting like I did on Friday. Had I sold then, my short call strike would have probably been 4340.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 17th 4260/4240 put spreads for 7.50. I’m sensing we will again test the 4280 level (or higher) so selling the put side now. Condors bought for 16.40 on Friday.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 4175/4195-4310/4330 condors for .95, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 17th 4240/4260-4270/4290 condors for 16.40, SPX at 4265.

#spx1dte

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 4275/4295 call spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.20 this morning.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX Aug 12th 4145/4165-4275/4295 condors for 1.20, IV 27.5%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte

Did not return from errands in time so I will place a same-day trade in the morning before the open.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 11th 4270/4290 call spreads for 1.90. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20. Looks like Upside Warning coming through this time.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte After the closing bell, sold to open $SPX Aug 11th 4115/4135-4270/4290 condors for 1.20, IV 18.9%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX trades

#SPX1dte No trade for tomorrow as I will be traveling and don’t want to tangle with the CPI report release (inflation for July).

Expected to expire today: $SPX Aug 9th 4055/4075-4205/4225 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 4055/4075-4205/4225 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4141, IV 18.84%, deltas -.07 +.05

Expiring: Aug 8th 4055/4075-4215/4235 condors, sold Friday for 1.45.

Looking to close the other half of #SX5dte Aug 10th call spread before SPX trading stops at 4:15 ET

#spx5dte

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close HALF of my position, $SPX Aug 10th 4160/4180 call spreads for 12.00, at 7:44 PT when SPX was at 4182. Bought for 7.00 on Friday.

Planned to hold the rest for more, but then we dropped pretty sharply. Hope this isn’t another head-fake Upside Warning, but it definitely could be, given the uncertainty in the economy.

Upside Warning in Effect

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Friday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.

Here is data on last several Upside Warnings. The only one in 2022 completely failed, and overall the signal has not performed as strongly since 2020.

Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 10th 4160/4180 call spreads for 7.00.

Since an Upside Warning looks likely to fire at today’s close, I am going short-term bullish and only buying a call spread rather than a condor. I will look to close this Monday or Tuesday on any significant rise in SPX. The inflation number for July will be released on the 10th (Wednesday), so volatility should increase on these options and hopefully boost the price as well.

Current IV on the Aug 10th SPX option chain is 18.25%

#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, after the jobs report and spike down, sold to open $SPX Aug 5th 4060/4040 put spreads for 1.10.

Delta -.07 at time of fill.

July Jobs report

#Jobs — Doubling expectations and defying recession fears; earnings up strongly

Gain of +528,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 268K
Unemployment at 3.5%, down by 0.1
U6 unemployment 6.7%, unchanged
Labor force participation 62.1%, down by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up strongly by 0.5%; 5.2% increase over the year

May jobs revised up by +2K to +386K
June jobs revised up by +26K to +398K

SPX trades

#SPX5dte After the close, Sold to close $SPX Aug 5th 4130/4150 call spreads for 13.40. With puts closed this morning that’s 18.15 in total credit, so .95 profit on the trade. Didn’t want to risk overnight gap or jobs report before tomorrow’s open.

#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 4th 4055/4075-4220/4240 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15.

Waiting for after jobs report to sell tomorrow’s 1-dte.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 5th 4120/4100 put spreads for 4.75. Condors bought for 17.20 on Monday. Looking for an afternoon rally higher so I can sell the call side before tomorrow’s job report.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 4th 4055/4075-4220/4240 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4158, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 4170/4190 call spreads for 2.05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Before the close, Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 3990/4010-4170/4190 condors for 1.35, SPX at 4095, deltas -.06 +.06

Expired: Aug 2nd 4015/4035-4185/4205 condors, sold yesterday for 1.40.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 4015/4035-4185/4205 condors for 1.40, SPX at 4117, IV 21.75%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring worthless: Aug 1st 4025/4045-4175/4195 condors, sold this morning for 1.20.

#SPX5dte Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Aug 1st 4040/4060 call spreads. Put side sold for 1.25 on Friday. Condors bought for 17.25 on Wednesday, so 4.00 profit

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 4025/4045-4175/4195 condors for 1.20, IV 34%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Came within a few pennies of my stop but I have to leave the computer so bought to close $SPX July 29th 4045/4065 call spreads for 1.75. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 1st 4030/4010 put spreads for 1.25. Waiting for call spreads. Condors bought for 17.25 on Wednesday.

Downside Warning canceled

#vixindicator After 97 days, looks like the Downside Warning is canceled. Amazon’s earnings popped the market higher after the bell, driving the $VIX down below 22.34 (by a penny) before its official closing time at 4:15pm.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 3955/3975-4145/4165 condors for 1.25, SPX at 4072, IV 24.9%, deltas -.06 +.06

Selling in afternoon for first time in weeks, since volatility has calmed down.

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 27th 4080/4100 call spreads for 2.75. Condors sold this morning for 1.15.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 28th 3925/3945-4080/4100 condors for 1.15, IV 35.9%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 1st 4010/4030/4040/4060 condors for 17.30. Volatility relaxed in last hour so price for ATM condors fell.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Using post-Fed high IV to sell some more…

Sold to Open $SPX June 27th 4020/4040 call spreads for 2.80, with SPX at 3978.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 27th 3825/3845-4045/4065 condors for 1.60, IV 54.8%, deltas -.05 +.05

Went one lower than usual on the deltas due to Fed announcement. IV has spiked pretty high (was below 40% yesterday).

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 26th 3870/3890-4010/4030 condors for 1.20, IV 32.4%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX July 25th 3885/3905-4030/4050 condors for 1.25, IV 33%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 3925/3905 put spreads for 2.25. Condors sold for 1.25 this morning.

After a 10-dollar week last week, pretty disappointing this round with three losses and three wins, amounting to a 40-cent loss for the week.

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Sold to close HALF of my July 22nd 3915/3895 put spreads for .50. Seeing if we might go lower for second half. This long condor already closed for profit on call side so just adding a few extra pennies.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 22nd 3905/3925-4050/4070 condors for 1.20, IV 33.5%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX trades

#SPX5dte After closing bell, Sold to close $SPX July 22nd 3925/3945 call spreads for 18.60. Condors bought for 17.45 on Tuesday. So 1.15 in profit but leaving put side for the morning in case we gap down.

#SPX1dte Condors sold this morning expired worthless.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 21st 3875/3895-4035/4055 condors for 1.35, IV 38.3, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 20th 3840/3860-4000/4020 condors for 1.35, IV 38.9%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 5-dte

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX July 22nd 3895/3915/3925/3945 condors for 17.45.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 19th 3775/3795-3920/3940 condor for 1.30, IV 35%, deltas -.07 +.05

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Stop on put side hit in last few minutes. BTC 3820 puts for 3.70. Condors sold this morning for 1.40.

SPX 1 dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, Sold to Open $SPX July 18th 3800/3820-3945/3965 condors for 1.40, IV 35.5%, deltas -.07 +.06

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Of course the first time I try this in months I’m at risk of a bad loss. Decided to sell the put side as action yesterday and overnight was bullish. But then news spiked futures higher and ended up chasing.

Sold to close $SPX 3810/3790 put spreads for 5.40. Condors bought for 17.85 on Tuesday.

Now watching the call side.

#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 14th 3660/3680-3840/3860 condors for 1.15, IV 44.7%, deltas -.05 +.05

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Playing the swings in pre-market: Sold to Open $SPX July 13th 3690/3670 put spreads for 1.50.
Looking to sell call spread on a bounce.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX July 15th 3790/3810-3820/3840 condors for 17.85. SPX at 3814, expiry IV 32.1%

First time I have tried this in awhile after being forced to abandon it late last years after a string of losses. I first developed this trade in the high volatility of spring 2020. Lately we have been seeing fairly sharp swings over 4-5 day periods, and since I’m able to get this below 18.00 I’m taking a shot. Will likely wait for expiration, but may exit early if move is large before then.

#SPX1dte Expecting this morning’s trade to expire worthless.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 12th 3760/3780-3905/3925 condors for 1.30, IV 35.6%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 11th 3785/3805-3940/3960 condors for 1.40, IV 38.65%, deltas -.06 +.06

June Jobs report

#Jobs — Above expectations

Gain of +372,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 250K
Unemployment unchanged at 3.6%, as expected
U6 unemployment 6.7%, down by 0.4
Labor force participation 62.2%, down by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up 0.3%; 5.1% increase over the year

May jobs revised down to +384K
April jobs revised down to +368K

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open $SPX July 8th 3790/3810-3955/3975 condors for 1.25, IV 38.9%, deltas -.05 +.06

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to open July 7th 3765/3785-3920/3940 condors for 1.50, IV 37.7%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 6th 3730/3750-3905/3925 condors for 1.60, IV 44.7%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, sold to Open $SPX July 5th 3690/3710-3870/3890 condors for 1.45, IV 44.4%, deltas -.06 + .06

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, Sold to Open July 1st 3685/3705-3860/3880 condors for 1.40, IV 44.7%, deltas -.06 +.06

Jobs next week

Sorry about the head fake, jobs report is next Friday

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In Pre-market, sold to Open $SPX June 30th 3670/3690-3895/3915 condors for 1.35, IV 52.4%, deltas -.06 +.03

The call side was an error, I meant to sell the 3875