SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped was hit: bought to close $SPX Jan 24th 4230/4210 put spreads for 3.00. Condors sold for 1.35 on Friday.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 24th 4210/4230-4545/4565 condors for 1.35, SPX at 4414, IV 23.4%, deltas -.07 +.05

Expiring worthless: Jan 21st 4325/4345-4570/4590 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

Downside Warning in effect

#VIXindicator At the close we are exceeding 50% above the Jan 4th VIX low of 16.34.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 20th (monthlys) 4415/4435-4665/4685 condors for .25. Sold yesterday for 1.30. Closed to avoid Friday morning gap risk.

Will sell one for Friday PM in a bit.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 20th (Monthlys) 4415/4435-4665/4685 condors for 1.30, SPX at 4565, IV 23.6%, deltas -.06 +.06. I have not sold monthlys on this strategy in a long time, but since I’m currently taking a break from the 5-dte strategy I’m including them this month. These stop trading at close tomorrow but don’t settle until Friday morning’s open, which mean if I don’t close them tomorrow they will be exposed to possibility of a gap open on Friday.

Expected to expire worthless: Jan 19th 4455/4475-4670/4690 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 19th 4455/4475-4670/4690 condors for 1.50, SPX at 4584, IV 20.1%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Jan 18th 4525/4545-4735/4755 condors, sold Friday for 1.70.

SPX 1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 18th 4525/4545-4735/4755 condors for 1.70, SPX at 4658, IV 11.8%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: 4560/4580-4745/4765 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.

See y’all Tuesday.

Upside Warning canceled?

#VIXIndicator Yes, it was. In the premarket, $VIX peaked at 22.07, just above the 22.03 level which cancels it. This, after two weeks of volatility which couldn’t quite get it canceled.

Market behaviors change over time, and it seems the VIX may have outgrown the constraints of my indicator.

SPX 1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 14th 4560/4580-4745/4765 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4673, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 16%.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 12th 4590/4610-4765/4785 condors for 1.25, SPX at 4705, deltas -.05 +.07

SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Jan 10th 4605/4585 put spreads for 6.75. Condors sold for 1.25 on Friday. My two month slide of misery continues. As I posted earlier the $VIX really has not spiked until today, meaning my condors have not been wide enough for this dropping market. Last week I stopped trading the #SPX5dte due to persistent losses, but the 1-dte trades have ALSO been failing at an usually bad rate lately.

VIX Indicator

#VIXindicator This is probably the biggest drop I’ve seen since creating this indicator wherein an Upside Warning has not been canceled. It may be time to look at some of the rules and whether the behavior of $VIX and market over past couple years calls for some tweaks.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dter Sold to Open $SPX Jan 10th 4585/4605-4760/4780 condors for 1.25, SPX at 4694, IV 10.3%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expected to expire: Jan 7th 4590/4610-4760/4780 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 10th 4770/4750 put spreads for 17.40. Condors bought Tuesday for 16.20. Saving call spreads for any possible run up we get into Monday.

December Jobs Report

#Jobs — Below expectations again; both measures of UE down again; upward revisions of past months again.

Gain of +199,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 422K.
Unemployment at 3.9%, down by 0.3 (vs. 4.1 estimate)
U6 unemployment at 7.3%, down by 0.5
Labor force participation 61.9%, up by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up 0.6%

October jobs revised up by +102K to +648K
November jobs revised up by +39K to +249K

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 7th 4790/4810 call spreads for .50. Sold puts for 16.00 yesterday so .55 profit on the condor.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte. It is absolutely crazy. As soon as I mention that the SPX1dte strategy is doing well, I get slapped across the face. Was away from my screen for the big drop, exited near the bottom, and now watching as we finally get a bounce. What a horrible stretch I am stuck in.

Bought to close $SPX Jan 5th 4740/4720 put spreads for 13.50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.

#spx5dte

SPX 5dte

#SPX5dte, Well, since the day I posted my recent success with the strategy, it has basically been a disaster. In the almost two years since I started this, there has never been such a string of expirations that end in or near the dead zone. I have been hesitant to stop because I’m quite sure that as soon as I do, it will become viable again. But I really don’t have any choice now. I still have trades on for Friday and Monday, but I have to stop placing new ones. I’ll take some time to assess the results and the strategy as a whole.

I will continue to trade with #SPX1dte, as that strategy is doing fine, despite some recent losses due to my mistakes.

I know some of you have followed me on this strategy, but don’t post your experience. I would ask that if you are doing this, to please comment with your experiences and trades. If you have learned from me or anyone on this site, and have had success by following, I think it is only fair that you return the favor and share your experience.

I say this because I got an email from someone saying they had followed me on SPX5dte and found some success with certain adjustments… adjustments that I had not thought of or used. I asked him to please post in the room and share, but he disappeared.

So please, if you learn and make money from following us, share your experiences!

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Jan 5th 4795/4775 put spreads for 7.50. Saving call spreads.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 7th 4760/4780-4790/4810 condors for 15.95, with SPX at 4783.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Stopped: Bought to close $SPX Dec 31st 4750/4730 put spreads for 1.00. Condors sold for 1.20 yesterday. Tried to play aggressive on this one but market drop and end of day spoiled the fun.

#SPX5dte Another let down in a long string of them… Upside Warning has stalled and not giving me a strong close for the 4785/4605 call side of today’s long condor. I’m watching. Closed the put side for 5.15 on Tuesday.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 31st 4730/4750-4835/4855 condor for 1.20, SPX at 4792, IV 9.9%, deltas -.12, +.06. Aggressive on the put side, although I’m not liking the drop a few seconds after the trade filled.

#SPX5dte Earlier: Bought to Open $SPX Jan 5th 4775/4795-4805/4825 condors for 15.40, with SPX at 4799.

SPXpire

#SPX5dte Expiring with max credit of 20.00: $SPX Dec 29th 4690/4710 call spreads. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.85, so 3.15 profit.

#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: 4700/4720-4840/4860 condors, sold yesterday for .95.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 3rd 4760/4780-4790/4810 condors for 15.95, with SPX at 4785.

#spx1dte

Upside Warning in effect!

#VIXIndicator Santa has arrived.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Dec 31st 4755/4775-4785/4805 condors for 15.60, with SPX at 4780.

#spx1dte

Santa Claus rally hath commenced

Downside warning canceled

#VIXindicator It is sometimes the case that a spike in the VIX that triggers a second or third warning is a capitulation move signaling the end of volatility. Perhaps that’s what happened on Monday, and we’re now cleared for a Santa Claus rally?

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 4560/4540 put spreads for .10. Taking downside risk off. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.

#spx5dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 22nd 4695/4715 call spreads for .60. Added to the 19.00 I got from puts, that’s a 2.20 profit.

Bought to Open Dec 27th 4585/4605-4615/4635 condors for 17.60, with SPX at 4603.

#spx1dte

Downside Warning on again

#VIXindicator Just in time for the holidays!

SPX trades

#SPx1dte STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX Dec 20th 4525/4505 put spreads for 4.00. Condors sold for 1.65 on Friday.

#spx5dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 17th 4685/4665 put spreads for 17.25. Bought for 17.00 on Monday, so barely above breakeven. I would normally wait for expiration, but can’t afford the risk after this brutal week for this strategy.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 4665/4685-4695/4715 condors for 17.40.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 15th 4680/4700 call spreads for 1.00. Another one bites the dust. Condors bought for 17.35 last Thursday. Puts sold for 5.80 on Monday, so 6.80 total, loss of 10.55. I certainly have not been reading this market well for my leg outs.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 20th 4610/4630-4640/4660 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4637.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 13th 4685/4665 put spreads for 3.20. Looking for the afternoon bounce to collect on call side.

Downside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator Another brief and shallow correction in the books as we look poised to march higher.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th 4600/4620-4755/4775 condors for .95, SPX at 4704, IV 8.75%, deltas -.06 +.06

Expiring: Dec 10th 4570/4590-4735/4755 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 15th 4645/4665-4675/4695 for 17.35.

Sold to close Dec 10th 4585/4605-4625/4645 condors for 18.60. Bought on Monday for 18.05. Market losing some stability so not going to risk going into the dead zone tomorrow.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 8th 4570/4590-4600/4620 condors for 19.70. Condors Bought for 18.25 last Thursday, so 1.45 profit.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 13th 4665/4685-4695/4715 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 4689.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 10th 4585/4605-4615/4625 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 4609.

Looks like I made exactly the wrong move on Friday by selling the call side of today’s 5-dte. Psychology gets me on those decisions way too often…. VIX was soaring and market was down, so I assume the market will continue down. Instead, I should have looked at the decent premium available for the put side and taken it, risking a small loss, but with a good chance of making it a big win today if we bounced. That would have happened if I hadn’t made the wrong choice. Now I just have to look for a pullback into the close, which is certainly possible with current volatility, but looking unlikely with continuing strength in last couple of hours.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 6th 4605/4625 call spreads for 2.55. Holding put spreads for Monday for hopeful max credit. A bit risky as we have been getting big bounces on this correction, but even if that happens Monday I still think it will be the put side where I get most profit. Condors bought for 18.05 on Tuesday.

#spx1dte

VIX rising

Indices are down, but not as dramatically as the $VIX is up. Probably a deeper market drop into the close.

November Jobs Report

#Jobs — Below expectations, but both measures of UE down sharply.

Gain of +210,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 573K.
Unemployment at 4.2%, down by 0.4
U6 unemployment at 7.8%, down by 0.5
Labor force participation 61.8%, up by 0.2
Average hourly earnings up 4.8% year over year

October jobs revised up by +15K to +546K
September jobs revised up by +57K to +379K

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 3rd 4665/4645 put spreads for 18.20. Condors bought for 16.80 on Monday. Still holding call spreads.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Dec 1st 4655/4675 call spreads for 2.10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35

SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Nov 30th 4600/4580 put spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.

#spx5dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 3rd 4645/4665-4675/4695 condors for 16.80, with SPX at 4668.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 29th 4420/4440-4700/4720 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4614, IV 18.7%, deltas -.07 +.06. My put side dropped 190 points from today’s expiry!

Very foolish not to close today’s 4630/4610 put spread at the open, when it got down to 4.00. I was looking to close then, but reversal happened too fast on me then I took a huge dose of hopium. Now I’m looking for SPX to recover more in this final half hour to minimize (or fingers crossed, eliminate) my losses.

#SPX5dte Expected to expire with max profit of 20.00: Nov 26th 4700/4680 put spreads, bought last Friday for 15.70, so 4.30 profit.

Upside Warning FIRMLY canceled

#VIXIndicator Pre-market $VIX high of 28.02. All we needed for cancelation was 22.10.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX 4695/4675 put spreads for 8.35. Calls sold yesterday for 3.00 so 11.35 total. Condors bought for 15.40 last Thursday so 4.05 loss.

These consolidation periods make this strategy more difficult.

#SPX1dte – I forgot to sell one yesterday, but will today for Friday expiration.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 24th 4705/4725 call spreads for 3.00. Saving put spreads for later. I rarely sell call spreads first as this market relentlessly surprises to the upside. But I feel we’ll have another leg lower, at least today. Condors bought for 15.40 last Thursday.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 22nd 4720/4740 call spreads for 7.70. Put side sold for 8.20 on Friday, so 15.90 total credit. Condors bought for 15.05 last Tuesday so .85 profit. I wanted to try to ride this higher but I got filled before I could adjust my limit.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 22nd 4710/4690 put spreads for 8.20. Call side holding for later today or Monday. Condors bought for 15.05 on Tuesday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 19th 4670/4650 put spreads for 3.20. I think the bias is to upside but got caught in the huge spike without enough time to alter my bid. Now I need a decent recovery into tomorrow’s close to collect on the call side. Condors bought for 15.45 on Monday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 17th 4655/4675 call spreads for 19.00. Condors bought for 16.25 last Thursday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 4690/4710-4720/4740 condors for 15.05, with SPX at 4714.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 15th 4675/4655 put spreads for 4.30. Unfortunately still holding call spreads as I missed my fills on the earlier spikes higher. These mornings are crucial to manage properly to keep this strategy robust. When we are opening so near the dead zone, I need to take advantage of the morning swings and make sure to get filled.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 12th 4705/4725 call spreads for .50. Increased my profit on the condor to 3.50…

…But it also means my #SPX1dte is being stopped out. Looking for an exit on pullback.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 17th 4625/4645-4655/4675 condors for 16.25, with SPX at 4651.

#spx1dte

VXX adding

#VXXGame My only trade going other than SPX: Bought more $VXX June 2022 10 puts for .30. Adds to the position, now at 0.323 average price. Also have January 2023 10 puts purchased for avg 1.008.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 10th 4680/4700 call spreads for 5.50. Puts sold yesterday for 3.50, so 9.00, and loss of 6.45 total.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 10th 4670/4650 put spreads for 3.50. Saving 4680/4700 call spreads for now. Condors bought for 15.45 last Thursday.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 12th 4675/4695-4705/4725 condors for 15.25, With SPX at 4700.

SPX trades

#SPX1dte STOPPED, Bought to close $SPX Nov 5th 4595/4615 call spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for .95. Stop really was hit in pre-market when I should have exited, but fortunately we have faded from the highs so my loss is bearable.

#spx5dte

SPX7dte/5dte Results

#SPX5dte (formerly #SPX7dteLong) I started this during the depths of the pandmeic-panic in April 2020. I was getting blown out on my #SPX1dte strategy with gap opens that hadn’t happened in years, and I realized it was pretty much guaranteed that the market would move more than 20 points each week. I stuck with it and it turns out it has been a workable strategy even in quieter times. After a weaker performance in Jan-Jun 2021, I started being more active with exits, rather than waiting for expiration. That as helped and you can see the trend improving in recent months. Happy to answer questions, and I can provide more details in the coming weeks.

The chart is tracking PER OPTION gains and losses, so does not account for quantities. Currently, for every $15,000 in each account, I am buying 1 condor per expiry in this strategy, and simultaneously 1 condor per expiry in my #SPX1dte strategy. So for this strategy from April 2020 to present I have made 10K for every 15K in each account.

Screen Shot 2021-11-05 at 7.23.39 AM

October Jobs Report

#Jobs — After two months below, October was ABOVE expectations. Additionally, 235K were added in prior-month revisions.

Gain of +531,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 450K.
Unemployment at 4.6%, down by 0.2
U6 unemployment at 8.3%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation 61.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up 0.4%, or 4.9% year over year

September jobs revised up by +118K to +312K
August jobs revised up by +117K to +483K

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 10th 4650/4670-4680/4700 condors for 15.45, with SPX at 4674.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Expired with max credit of 20.00: $SPX Nov 3rd 4595/4615 call spreads. Put spreads sold for 1.60 on Tuesday, so 21.60 total credit. Condors bought for 15.90, so 5.70 profit.

#SPX1dte Expired worthless: Nov 3rd 4550/4570-4675/4695 condors, sold Tuesday for 1.45.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 8th 4605/4625-4635/4655 condors for 16.20, with SPX at 4632.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 5th 4580/4600-4610/4630 condors for 16.25, with SPX at 4607.

#spx1dte

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 4515/4535-4640/4660 condors for .90, SPX at 4599, IV 7.2%, deltas -.06 +.06.

Expected to expire: Oct 29th 4515/4535-4630/4650 condors, sold yesterday for .85.

SPX trades

#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 29th 4575/4595 call spreads for 9.40. Puts sold yesterday for 5.80, so 15.20 total. Condors bought Monday for 14.55, so .65 profit. Pulling the plug early because of yesterday’s sell-off into the close.

#spx1dte