#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 29th 4565/4545 put spreads for 5.80. Still holding 4575/4595 call side. Condors bought for 14.55 on Monday.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Order filled when $SPX was at about 4595: Sold to close Oct 27th 4540/4560 call spreads for 18.50. Puts sold for 3.35 yesterday, so 21.85 total, so 7.10 total profit.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte When $SPX was at 4551, sold to close Oct 27th 4530/4510 put spreads for 3.35. Still holding 4540/4560 call side. Condors bought for 14.75 on Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 25th 4515/4395 put spreads for 2.00. Holding calls for now. Condors bought for 14.85 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 27th 4510/4530-4540/4560 condors for 14.75, with SPX at 4536.
SPX trades
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 25th 4495/4515-4525/4545 condors for 14.85, with SPX at 4516.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator Feels like it’s a few days late but it still should mean more upside in the coming days or weeks.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Officially changing the name of my long trade to #SPX5dte from the gangly and inaccurate #SPX7dteLong.
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 22nd 4460/4480-4490/4510 condors for 14.85, with SPX at 4483.
Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Oct 18th 4365/4385 call spreads. Condors bought for 17.30 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: Oct 18th 4380/4400-4515/4535 condors, sold Friday for 1.05.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 18th 4380/4400-4515/4535 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4468, IV 8.6%, deltas -.07 +.07
Expiring: Oct 15th 4345/4365-4485/4505 condors, sold yesterday for .95
#SPX5dte Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Oct 15th 4385/4405 call spreads, bought Monday for 17.20. Puts sold yesterday for .80, so total profit of 3.60.
Officially changing the name of my long trade to #SPX5dte from the gangly and inaccurate #SPX7dteLong.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator So we never got much of a drop but it certainly was choppy for a few weeks. $VIX closes tomorrow and Monday below 18.49 will mean an Upside Warning.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX 4415/4435-4445/4465 condors for 15.75, with SPX at 4438.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 13th 4415/4395 put spreads for 16.75. Still holding call side. Condors bought for 16.85 last Thursday. In the recent volatility I have been letting these expire, but after yesterday’s drubbing I need to return to closing these on swings.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 15th 4355/4375-4385/4405 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 4384.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 4290/4310-4450/4470 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4396, IV 10.5%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Oct 8th 4310/4330-4465/4485 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10
#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Oct 8th 4300/4320 call spreads. Condors bought Monday for 17.90.
September Jobs Report
#Jobs — Second month in a row below expectations, lowest increase of the year
Gain of +194,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 500K.
Unemployment at 4.8%, down by 0.4
U6 unemployment at 8.5%, down by 0.3
Labor force participation 61.6%, down by 0.1%
Average hourly earnings up 0.6% vs expected .4%
August jobs revised up by +131K to +366K
July jobs revised up by +38K to +1.091M
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Earlier: Bought to Open Oct 13th 4395/4415-4425/4435 condors for 16.85, with SPX at 4418.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 8th 4310/4330-4465/4485 condors for 1.10, SPX at 4410, IV 13.4%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 6th 4340/4320 put spreads for 10.90. Still holding call side for any additional bounce today. Condors bought for 17.90 last Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 11th 4335/4355-4365/4385 condors for 17.40, with SPX at 4360.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 8th 4270/4290-4300/4320 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4292.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 6th 4320/4340-4350/4370 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4341
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Oct 1st 4455/4475 call spreads for .70. Condors bought Monday for 15.25. Puts sold for 15.30. So .75 profit.
Expiring today worthless: Sep 29th 4470/4490 call spreads. Condors bought for 15.95 last Thursday. Put side sold for 9.20 on Monday, so 6.75 loss.
Downside Warning is already back!
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 1 4445/4425 put spreads for 15.30. Condors bought for 15.25 yesterday. This is a breakeven move, but I still hold the call spreads until Friday. So any meaningful bounce, even today, will give me profit.
This is what the DW is meant for…
….too bad it got canceled on Friday. This has been the Summer of Swings for the #VIXindicator.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 29th 4460/4440 put spreads for 9.20. Still have the call side for two more days. Bought condors for 15.95 on Thursday.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator Another dud. This is becoming less reliable… need to find another signal to go with the $VIX highs that would indicate a more likely chance of downside follow through.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 27th 4355/4375-4500/4520 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4458, IV 9.2%, deltas -.06 +.09
Expiring: Sep 24th 4355/4375-4495/4515 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Sep 24th 4330/4350 call spreads. Condors bought Monday for 18.20.
SPX trades
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 22 4415/4435-4445/4465 condors for 15.35. Bought for 17.05 last Thursday, so loss of 1.70. There’s too much risk of a face-ripping event after Fed announcement, so I had to take this off rather than wait for the close.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sep 27th 4340/4360-4370/4390 condors for 18.00, with SPX at 4365.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator Let’s see if this one has more depth than the recent head fakes we’ve been getting.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Woke up at 4:30 to close put side: Bought to close $SPX Sep 20th 4330/4310 put spreads for 3.20. Condors sold for 1.05 on Friday. Looks like it would have been better to wait for the open, but market was falling all night.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator $VIX finally showed some gumption this morning. Likely downside warning coming at the close.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 17th 4445/4425 put spread for 3.50. I’m kind of back on the bullish train, since the VIX has been tepid, but even so I sold this too early and we are dropping more.
SPX trades
Yesterday:
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Sep 17 4425/4445-4455/4475 condors for 17.10.
#SPX1dte Expired: Sep 13th 4370/4390-4525/4545 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.
Today:
Sold to close Sep 15th 4505/4525 call spreads for 2.50. Sold put side for 12.40 yesterday, so total. Bought for 16.10 last Thursday so 14.90 total, loss of 1.20.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 15th 4490/4470 put spreads for 12.40. Condors bought for 16.10 last Thursday. Call spreads still open. Uncertain where we are headed; Upside Warning still in effect but we’ve had several days of weakness.
SPX trades
#SPX7dtelong In pre-market, sold to close $SPX Sep 13th 4515/4535 call spreads for 8.00. Sold puts yesterday for 8.25, so 16.25 total. Condors bought for 14.70 on Wednesday, so 1.55 in profit.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 10th 4525/4505 put spreads for 5.00. Leaving call spreads for more upside.
Made the mistake of getting spooked by yesterday’s drop, and did not sell this put side then. I should have heeded the Upside Warning and closed it. But hopefully we can revisit the highs around 4545 tomorrow.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sep 13th 4485/4505-4515/4535 condors for 14.70, with SPX at 4511.
Today’s 4535/4555 call spread will expire worthless, leaving me only with the 8.00 credit I got for the put side yesterday. Bought for 14.55 last Thursday so 6.55 loss.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: $SPX Sep 8th 4460/4480-4550/4570 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 8th 4525/4505 put spreads for 8.00. Saving call spreads for the hopeful bounce.
I was travelling last week so was unable to post. For the condor expiring today:
Purchased last Tuesday for 14.30
Sold put side on Thursday for 5.25
Sold call side Friday for 12.00
Total profit: 2.95
August Jobs Report
#Jobs — August dips, way below expectations
Gain of +235,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 720K.
Unemployment at 5.2%, down by 0.3
U6 unemployment at 8.9%, down by 0.3
Labor force participation 61.7%, unchanged
Wages up 4.3% year over year
July jobs revised up by +110K to +1.053M
June jobs revised up by +24K to +962K
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 3rd 4535/4555 call spreads for 10.50. Put side sold for 8.00 on Tuesday. Condors bought for 13.75 so total profit of 4.75.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sep 3rd 4525/4505 put spreads for 8.00. Condors bought yesterday for 13.75.
This strategy has been working much better if I leg out on the swings. When I started it during the pandemic in 2020, the market was moving pretty big, so I could wait for expiration day and usually get the full 20.00. If I exited one side early, there was too much risk it would keep going in that direction. But now with volatility lower, using the swings is a better bet… especially with an Upside Warning and (economic recovery) giving me confidence that dips are short-lived.
SPX new trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Sep 3rd 4505/4525-4535/4555 condors for 13.70, with SPX at 4534.
SPX trades
#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Aug 30th 4500/4520 call spreads for 17.50. Put side sold Thursday for 8.25, so 25.75 total credit. Condors bought for 14.20 last Tuesday so 11.55 total profit.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 27th 4485/4505 call spreads for 17.60. Put side sold for 2.75 yesterday so 20.35 total credit. Condors bought for 14.20 on Monday, so 6.15 profit.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 27th 4475/4455 put spread for 2.75. Leaving 4485/4505 call side into tomorrow.
#SPX1dte Yesterday, expired worthless: Aug 25th 4430/4450-4515/4535 condors, sold Tuesday for .90
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 25th 4400/4420 call spreads for 19.70. Condors bought for 17.30 last Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 23rd 4480 calls for 1.00. Condors sold for .95 on Friday. Hit the stop early but kept missing the fills. Took a trip up to 10.00… now back below a dollar.
Whipsaw
#VIXindicator In one of the most whipsawy periods I can remember, the Downside Warning was canceled with a new SPX high today.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 4360/4380-4480/4500 condors for .95, SPX at 4442, IV 8.2%, deltas -.08 +.06. Actually a little more afraid of upside than downside, even though we are in a Downside Warning.
Expiring: Aug 20th 4290/4310-4460/4480 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 20th 4470/4490 call spreads for .75. Puts sold for 8.40 on Tuesday, so 9.15 total credit off a purchase of 13.10, so 3.95 loss.
Downside Warning
#VIXindicator Looks like we got a Downside Warning already. Last one was basically a head fake. So was the Upside one.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 23rd 4460/4480 call spreads for 8.50. Bought yesterday for 7.90.
My *guess* is that yesterday’s VIX spike was a head-fake and we are still going higher. But gotta follow my rules and dump out of this while some profit is available. Another dip would likely mean full loss, since I have no put side on this one.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 4345/4365-4480/4500 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4438, IV 11.85%, deltas -.07 +.06
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator, well that got ugly fast and became one of the briefest UpW’s in history. At least I collected great profits on yesterday’s swings.
SPX trades
Using the pullback to make some moves. Keeping the faith in Upside Warning that we have higher to go despite retail sales report, Delta variant, Afghanistan, etc.
Sold to close $SPX Aug 20th 4460/4440 put spreads for 8.40. Condor bought yesterday for 13.10.
SPX trades
It actually is somewhat common for the first day after the Upside Warning fires that we get a pullback. It makes sense; it requires three straight days of low volatility to fire it, so a fourth day of some pullback seems in order. The UpW almost always works, but getting the timing right can be tough.
#SPX7dteLong
Sold to close $SPX Aug 16th 4435/4415 put spreads for 2.50. Looking for a bounce to close call side.
Sold to close $SPX Aug 18th 4450/4430 put spreads for 7.80. Still have time for the call side.
Upside Warning is ON
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Friday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. Expect higher prices in coming days or weeks.
Last four Upside Warnings:
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 13th 4460/4440 call spreads for 19.00. Put side sold for 2.45, yesterday, for 21.45 total, on purchase price of 14.10, means 7.35 profit.
Upside Warning imminent
#VIXindicator It should take effect at the close Friday, unless the day is volatile.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 13th 4430/4410 put spreads for 2.45. Leaving call spreads for now. Condors bought for 14.10 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 11th 4425/4445 call spreads for 15.10. Could not risk any further down move. Put side sold for 2.25 yesterday so 17.35 total. Bought for 15.05 last week, so 2.30 profit.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: Aug 11th 4365/4385-4465/4485 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 11th 4415/4395 put spreads for 2.25. Condors bought for 15.05 last Thursday. Saving call spreads to sell later today or tomorrow.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 13th 4410/4430-4440/4460 condors for 14.10, with SPX at 4434.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX 4360/4380-4465/4486 condor for 1.05, SPX at 4434, IV 6.5%, deltas -.07 +.08
Expiring: 4350/4370-4465/4485 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
July Jobs report
#Jobs — July was another strong month, beating expectations
Gain of +943,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 845K.
Unemployment at 5.4%, down by 0.5
U6 unemployment at 9.2%, down by 0.6
Labor force participation 61.7%, up by 0.1
Wages up 0.4% for the month
June jobs revised up by +88K to +938K
May jobs revised up by +31K to +614K
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 11th 4395/4415-4425/4445 condors for 15.05, with SPX ar 4419.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 6th 4400/4380 put spreads for 5.70. Condors bought for 15.50 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open Aug 9th $SPX 4390/4410-4420/4440 condors for 15.20, with SPX at 4415.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 6th 4380/4400-4410/4430 condors for 15.50, with SPX at 4398.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 30th 4410/4390 put spreads for 5.40. Tried to close at the open but was not filled, and then chased all morning as it only went up. Not a great way to start the day when I could have gotten over 12.00!!!
Hoping for a strong rally to get the call side ITM.
Downside warning was canceled
#VIXindicator I forgot one of my own rules for this thing… the Downside Warning is canceled if the $SPX hits a new high, even if the $VIX hasn’t given us the cancel signal yet. So it was canceled last Friday. No Upside Warning yet.
PINS earnings analysis
#Earnings $PINS reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters, which represents its entire history.
April 27, 2021 AC -14.50%
Feb. 4, 2021 AC +5.29%
Oct. 28, 2020 AC +26.92%
July 30, 2020 AC +36.12%
May 5, 2020 AC -14.84%
Feb. 6, 2020 AC +9.51%
Oct. 31, 2019 AC -17.02%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +18.62%
May 16, 2019 AC -13.48%
Avg (+ or -) 17.37%
Bias 4.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 72.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 64.69 to 80.31
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 59.91 to 85.09
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (36.1%): 46.31 to 98.69
Based on DOWN max only (-17.0%): 60.16
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 