#SPX1dte Earlier: Bought to close $SPX May 12th 4055/4035 put spreads for 1.10, when stop was breached at 4095. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10, so breakeven, loss of commissions.
Author Archives: Jeff
Downside Warning is in effect
#VIXIndicator It went in effect at the close today.
Here are the last three Downside Warnings for reference:
Fired 2/25/21, at the SPX close of 3,829. The SPX low of 3,723 was 5 trading days later.
Fired 1/27/21, at the SPX close of 3,750. The SPX low of 3,694 was only 2 days later .
Fired 9/3/20, at the SPX close of 3,455. The SPX low of 3,209 was 3 weeks later on Sep 24th.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX May 12th 4175/4195 call spreads for 3.70. Condors bought for 16.45 last Thursday. Saving put side for later today or tomorrow, as I believe we are entering a correction.
Upside Warning es finito
#VIXIndicator In premarket, $VIX has gone higher and ended the Upside Warning, which lasted 57 days and took us from SPX 3898 to peak of 4238. Falling prices and higher volatility are likely for coming days or weeks.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX May 14th 4205/4225-4235/4255 iron condors for 15.30, with SPX at 4231.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 4155/4175-4275/4295 iron condors for 1.05, SPX at 4234, IV 8%, deltas -.07 +.08
Today’s closing to follow in comments.
April Jobs Report
#Jobs — Way way below expectations; much lower than March’s blowout
Gain of +266,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 1M
Unemployment at 6.1%, up by 0.1
U6 unemployment at 10.4%, down by 0.3
Labor force participation 61.7%, up by 0.2
March revised down by -146K to +770K
Feb jobs revised up by +68K to +536K
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 7th 4110/4130-4225/4245 iron condors for 1.20, SPX at 4188, IV 11.7%, deltas -.07, +.08
#SPX7dteLong Earlier: Bought to Open $SPX May 12th 4145/4165-4175/4195 iron condors for 16.45, with SPX at 4170.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX May 3rd 4185/4165 put spreads for 1.65. Looking for bullish close to profit on call side. Condors bought for 15.65 last Tuesday.
SPX trade
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Apr 30th 4185/4165 put spreads for 3.65. Leaving call spreads for tomorrow. Condors bought for 15.45 on Monday.
Bought to Open $SPX May 5th 4170/4190-4200/4220 condors for 15.65, with SPX at 4194.
#SPX1dte I was unable to place a trade for Friday as I was traveling.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired worthless: $SPX Apr 28th 4115/4135-4230/4250 iron condor, sold yesterday for 1.15.
#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Apr 28th 4140/4160 call spreads, sold last Thursday for 16.95.
AMZN earnings analysis for TOMORROW
#Earnings $AMZN reports TOMORROW (Thursday) after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 2, 2021 AC -1.99%
Oct. 29, 2020 AC -5.44%
July 30, 2020 AC +3.69%
April 30, 2020 AC -7.59%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Avg (+ or -) 4.05%
Bias -1.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 3475.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3326.44 to 3623.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 3334.38 to 3615.62
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.8%): 3203.60 to 3746.40
Based on UP max only (+7.4%): 3731.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 27, 2021 AC -2.62%
Oct. 29, 2020 AC -6.30%
July 30, 2020 AC +8.17%
April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Avg (+ or -) 6.74%
Bias 0.75%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 306.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 291.03 to 322.97
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 285.39 to 326.61
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 247.98 to 364.02
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 339.08
Open to requests for other symbols.
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 27, 2021 AC -3.49%
Oct. 29, 2020 AC -5.60%
July 30, 2020 AC +10.46% Biggest UP
April 30, 2020 AC -1.60%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Avg (+ or -) 4.68%
Bias 1.80%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 128.55 to 138.45
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 127.25 to 139.75
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.5%): 119.54 to 147.46
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 124.65
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX May 3rd 4165/4185-4195/4215 iron condors for 15.65, with SPX at 4190.
1-dte trade to follow in comments
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 30th 4165/4185-4195/4215 iron condors for 15.45, with SPX at 4188.
Expected to expire the max credit of 20.00: Apr 26th 4130/4150 call spreads. Condors bought for 16.75 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: Apr 26th 4120/4140-4235/4255 condors, sold Friday for 1.05.
SPX final trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 26th 4120/4140-4235/4255 iron condors for 1.05, with SPX at 4186, IV 7.15%, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 7dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Apr 23rd 4170/4190 call spreads for 8.65. Coupled with 11.00 for put spreads yesterday, 19.65 total. Condors bought for 15.65 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 28th 4110/4130-4140/4160 iron condors for 16.95, with SPX at 4138
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Well, day could not end worse with SPX almost precisely in middle of the Dead Zone. Had the chance to sell for over 17 near the open but wanted to wait it out for max profit of 20.00. A Screamingly bullish day denied me. So I sold put side for .90 and call side for 1.35 in the last half hour of the day. 4145/4165-4175/4195 condors bought for 15.40 last Thursday, so 13.15 loss.
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: 4050/4070-4180/4200 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 26th 4100/4120-4130/4150 iron condors for 16.75, with SPX at 4124.
#SPX1dte trade will follow in comments.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 23rd 4140/4160-4170/4180 iron condors for 15.60, with SPX at 4160.
Fingers crossed for a bullish close.
SPX 7dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Apr 19th 4120/4100 put spreads for 1.25. Looking for a bounce to get full 20.00 on call side. Condors bought for 15.25 last Tuesday.
Earnings Calendar…
…in right column has been updated
SPX summary of week
#SPXWeeklySummary
#SPX1dte
Summary of week: Mon -.50 loss, Wed +.85, Fri +.85
+1.20 profit for week
#SPX7dteLong
Summary of week: Monday +4.60, Wednesday +.65, Friday +4.55.
+9.80 profit for week
This week’s expirations
5 wins, 1 loss
Total P/L combined: profit of +11.00
I was traveling Friday and didn’t place a 1dte trade for Monday. I am spending two weeks in the Denver area.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 21st 4145/4165-4175/4195 iron condors for 15.40.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 16th 4085/4105-4210/4230 iron condors for .85
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: $SPX Apr 14th 4070/4090-4190/4210 condors, sold yesterday for .85.
Bummer of an exit on the 7dte trade… could have gotten 5.05 if I’d waited, but instead got .65
SPX trades
#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Apr 14th 4105/4125 call spreads for 15.60. Still holding put spreads. Condors bought last Thursday for 14.95.
Don’t know what just hit the market but it has potential to kill my trade so I got out with small profit. Still holding put side and will hopefully get bit more for it, but as these things usually pan out, I probably sold at the bottom. I’ve been away from my desk almost the whole morning, but happened to be here at the exact right time to make a panic trade!
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX 4120/4140-4150/4170 iron condors for 15.30, with SPX at 4146.
#SPX1dte in comments.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 16th 4095/4115-4125/4145 iron condors for 15.45, with SPX at 4121.
Expected to expire at max credit of 20.00: Apr 12th 4080/4100 call spreads. Condors bought for 15.40 last Tuesday.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Apr 12th 4155/4175 call spreads for 1.45. Condors sold for .95 an hour ago. The pop above 4129 in the last minute breached my stop, so I closed the call spread after the bell.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 12th 4035/4055-4155/4175 iron condors for .95, with SPX at 4110, IV 7.9%, deltas -.08 +.06
Expiring: Apr 9th 4030/4050-4135/4155 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Apr 9th 4080/4100 call spreads, bought Monday for 15.20. Also add .60 from selling put spread this morning.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Apr 9th 4070/4050 put spreads for .60. Relying on the 4080/4900 call side for the main profit. Condors bought for 15.20 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 14th 4075/4095-4105/4125 iron condors for 14.95, with SPX at 4095.
1-dte trade to follow in comments.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: $SPX Apr 7th 3995/4015-4110/4130 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
#SPX7dteLong Expiring for max credit of 20.00: Apr 7th 3995/4015 call spreads. Condors bought for 15.75 last Wednesday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 12 4050/4070-4080/4100 iron condors for 15.40, with SPX at 4073.
1-dte trade to follow in comments.
SPXpiration ugly
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Apr 9th 4050/4070-4080/4100 iron condors for 15.20, with SPX at 4076.
#SPX1dte Stop was hit at the open, and I tried to get cute and exit this morning for less than 2.00. Could have done it for about 2.20. Missed it, and now in the hole over 11.00. Only hope is for a pull back to 4065.
March Jobs Report
#Jobs — Obliterating expectations, plus more added to Jan & Feb.
Gain of +916,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 645K
Unemployment at 6.0%, down by 0.2
U6 unemployment at 10.7%, down by 0.4
Labor force participation 61.5%, up by 0.1
Feb jobs revised up by +89K to +468K
Jan jobs revised up by +67K to +233K
Jobs Report tomorrow
Even though stock market is closed, the March jobs report will be released at 8:30am ET.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 5th 3925/3945-4065/4085 iron condors for 1.05, SPX at 4012, IV 8.2%, deltas -.06 +.06.
Expiring worthless: Apr 1 3905/3925-4035/4055 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
#SPX7dteLong Expected to expire with max credit of 20.00: Apr 1st 3980/4000 call spreads. Condors bought Monday for 15.60
SPX 1 dte
#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: $SPX Mar 31st 3880/3900-4020/4040 iron condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
Sold to Open $SPX Apr 1st 3905/3925-4035/4055 iron condors for 1.15, SPX at 3988, IV 13.05%, deltas -.07 +.07
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 5th 3930/3950-3960/3980 iron condors for 16.10, with SPX at 3956.
#SPX1dte trade will be posted in the comments.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Apr 1st 3950/3970-3980/4000 iron condors for 15.60, with SPX at 3972. This one only 3 days out, as Friday is Good Friday holiday and market is closed.
SPXit
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Mar 29th 3945/3965 call spreads for 10.00. Going to look for a low to sell put side.
Condors bought for 15.80 last Tuesday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX 3940/3960 call spreads for 7.10. Combine with puts this morning, 12.10 in sales for 3.70 loss.
More coming in comments
SPX exit trades
#SPX7dteLong Looks like a tough day for this one as SPX price currently in the dead zone. Sold to close $SPX March 26th 3930/3910 put spreads for 5.00. Condors bought for 15.80 on Monday. Hopefully will be a bullish day and can get something strong for the call side.
#SPX1dte STOPPED – Bought to close Mar 26th 3950/3970 call spreads for 1.35. Condors sold for 1.10 yesterday. It hit my stop (expected move) but was still closeable at only a small loss. Part of the problem with this one today was I sold it yesterday with 2 hours remaining, and market spiked upward into close. First time I’ve had to stop out of this trade since March 3.
SPX trades
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Mar 29th 3915/3935-3945/3965 iron condors for 15.80, with SPX at 3940.
More to come in comments.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Mar 22nd 3960/3940 put spreads for 17.75, at five minutes before the close. Got a lucky pullback on this one. Condors bought for 16.10 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring: Mar 22nd 3820/3840-3995/4015 condors, sold Friday for 1.00
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Mar 26th 3910/3930-3940/3960 iron condors for 15.80, with SPX at 3936.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 22nd 3820/3840-3985/4005 iron condors for 1.00, SPX at 3924, IV 11.1%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: 3795/3815-3995/4015 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20
Summary of week: Mon/Wed/Fri all expired worthless, total credit of 3.30.
#SPX7dteLong Call side fizzled so 11.00 from put side yesterday will be it… condors bought for on Monday 15.60
Summary of week: Monday +2.80, Wednesday +3.35, Friday -4.70… Net +1.45
This week’s expirations
5 wins, 1 loss, Total P/L combined: +4.75
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Mar 24th 3935/3955-3965/3985 iron condors for 15.75, with SPX at 3962.
Will post #SPX1dte trade as a comment below here.
SPXculation
#Speculation Bought to Open $SPX Mar 24th 4000/4020 call spreads for 3.70. Filled earlier at the day’s lows.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong. Thank you, Fed. Sold to close $SPX Mar 17th 3960/3980 call spreads for 13.00. Combined with the 7.00 I sold the put side for: total credit is 20.00. I had planned to go for more, but the spike went up too fast and I wasn’t able to adjust my limit order in time.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: Mar 17th 3870/3890-4020/4040 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Mar 17th 3950/3930 put spreads for 7.00. Betting on a rise into the close so I can close call side. Condors bought for 16.65 last Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 17th 3870/3890-4020/4040 iron condor for 1.10, SPX at 3965, IV 14.8%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Mar 22nd 3940/3960-3970/3990 iron condors for 16.10, with SPX at 3966.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Monday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. Expect higher prices in coming days or weeks.
Last two Upside Warnings:
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Mar 19th 3925/3945-3955/3975 iron condors for 15.60, with SPX at 3945.
Expected to expire with max credit of 20.00: Mar 15th 3900/3925 call spreads. Condors bought last Tuesday for 17.20.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: Mar 15th 3835/3855-3990/4010 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 15th 3835/3855-3990/4010 iron condors for 1.00, SPX at 3936, IV 10.15%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Mar 12th 3855/3875-4005/4025 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
#SPX7dteLong Expiring for max credit of 20.00: Mar 12th 3855/3875 call spreads. Condors bought for 17.70 on Monday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3855/3875-4005/4025 iron condors for 1.25, SPX at 3953, IV 14.6%, deltas -.06 +.07
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Mar 17th 3930/3950-3960/3980 iron condor for 16.65, with SPX at 3953.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The VIX was headed for it at the close, but SPX making a new high beats it to the punch. Downside Warning is canceled. Now, three VIX closes below 22.30 mean an Upside Warning.
SPXpire
#SPX7dteLong Expired with max credit of 20.00: $SPX March 10th 3825/3845 call spreads. Condors bought for 17.85 last Thursday.
#SPX1dte Expired: 3785/3805-3960/3980 iron condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Mat 15th 3870/3890-3900/3920 iron condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3894.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dte Bought to open $SPX Mar 12th 3825/3845-3855/3875 iron condos for 17.70, with SPX at 3848.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX March 10th 3795/3815-3825/3845 condors for 17.85, with SPX at 3715. Too expensive to buy yesterday so I bought today… only 5 dte.
February Jobs Report
#Jobs — Strongly exceeding expectations.
Gain of +379,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 210K
Unemployment at 6.2%, down by 0.1
U6 unemployment at 11.1%, unchanged
Labor force participation 61.4%, unchanged
Jan jobs revised up by +117K to +166K
Dec jobs revised down by -79K to -306K
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Mar 5th 3895/3875 put spreads for 19.60. Condors bought for 16.85 on Monday. Call spread remains, possible some profit if we get a decent bounce.
More trades to follow in the comments.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Mar 3rd 3855/3835 put spreads for 7.10. Gonna try legging out, sell calls on next move up. Condors bought for 17.95 last Thursday.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Mar 3rd 3805/3785 put spreads for 2.00. Stop hit at the morning’s lows. Condors sold for 1.35 yesterday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX March 8th 3870/3890-3900/3920 iron condors for 17.00, with SPX at 3889.
SPX 7 dte
#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX March 1st 3865/3885-3895/3915 condors for 11.60. Taking the loss and closing now, as I cannot tell if this will continue to sail into higher profit or start wallowing in the dead zone. Bought for 16.75 last Tuesday.
Bought to Open March 5th 3875/3895-3905/3925 iron condors for 16.85, with SPX at 3898.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 1st 3665/3685-3920/3940 iron condors for 1.40, SPX at 3829, IV 19.5%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Feb 26th 3885/3865 put spreads. Condors bought for 16.35 on Monday
#Speculation Bought to Open $SPX March 5th 3700/3680 put spreads for 2.65.
Options Bistro 