#SPX5dte Bought to open $SPX Dec 31st 4755/4775-4785/4805 condors for 15.60, with SPX at 4780.
Author Archives: Jeff
Santa Claus rally hath commenced
Downside warning canceled
#VIXindicator It is sometimes the case that a spike in the VIX that triggers a second or third warning is a capitulation move signaling the end of volatility. Perhaps that’s what happened on Monday, and we’re now cleared for a Santa Claus rally?
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 4560/4540 put spreads for .10. Taking downside risk off. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 22nd 4695/4715 call spreads for .60. Added to the 19.00 I got from puts, that’s a 2.20 profit.
Bought to Open Dec 27th 4585/4605-4615/4635 condors for 17.60, with SPX at 4603.
Downside Warning on again
#VIXindicator Just in time for the holidays!
SPX trades
#SPx1dte STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX Dec 20th 4525/4505 put spreads for 4.00. Condors sold for 1.65 on Friday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 17th 4685/4665 put spreads for 17.25. Bought for 17.00 on Monday, so barely above breakeven. I would normally wait for expiration, but can’t afford the risk after this brutal week for this strategy.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 4665/4685-4695/4715 condors for 17.40.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 15th 4680/4700 call spreads for 1.00. Another one bites the dust. Condors bought for 17.35 last Thursday. Puts sold for 5.80 on Monday, so 6.80 total, loss of 10.55. I certainly have not been reading this market well for my leg outs.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 20th 4610/4630-4640/4660 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4637.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 13th 4685/4665 put spreads for 3.20. Looking for the afternoon bounce to collect on call side.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator Another brief and shallow correction in the books as we look poised to march higher.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th 4600/4620-4755/4775 condors for .95, SPX at 4704, IV 8.75%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Dec 10th 4570/4590-4735/4755 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 15th 4645/4665-4675/4695 for 17.35.
Sold to close Dec 10th 4585/4605-4625/4645 condors for 18.60. Bought on Monday for 18.05. Market losing some stability so not going to risk going into the dead zone tomorrow.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 8th 4570/4590-4600/4620 condors for 19.70. Condors Bought for 18.25 last Thursday, so 1.45 profit.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 13th 4665/4685-4695/4715 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 4689.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 10th 4585/4605-4615/4625 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 4609.
Looks like I made exactly the wrong move on Friday by selling the call side of today’s 5-dte. Psychology gets me on those decisions way too often…. VIX was soaring and market was down, so I assume the market will continue down. Instead, I should have looked at the decent premium available for the put side and taken it, risking a small loss, but with a good chance of making it a big win today if we bounced. That would have happened if I hadn’t made the wrong choice. Now I just have to look for a pullback into the close, which is certainly possible with current volatility, but looking unlikely with continuing strength in last couple of hours.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 6th 4605/4625 call spreads for 2.55. Holding put spreads for Monday for hopeful max credit. A bit risky as we have been getting big bounces on this correction, but even if that happens Monday I still think it will be the put side where I get most profit. Condors bought for 18.05 on Tuesday.
VIX rising
Indices are down, but not as dramatically as the $VIX is up. Probably a deeper market drop into the close.
November Jobs Report
#Jobs — Below expectations, but both measures of UE down sharply.
Gain of +210,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 573K.
Unemployment at 4.2%, down by 0.4
U6 unemployment at 7.8%, down by 0.5
Labor force participation 61.8%, up by 0.2
Average hourly earnings up 4.8% year over year
October jobs revised up by +15K to +546K
September jobs revised up by +57K to +379K
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 3rd 4665/4645 put spreads for 18.20. Condors bought for 16.80 on Monday. Still holding call spreads.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Dec 1st 4655/4675 call spreads for 2.10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35
SPX trades
#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Nov 30th 4600/4580 put spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Dec 3rd 4645/4665-4675/4695 condors for 16.80, with SPX at 4668.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 29th 4420/4440-4700/4720 condors for 1.15, SPX at 4614, IV 18.7%, deltas -.07 +.06. My put side dropped 190 points from today’s expiry!
Very foolish not to close today’s 4630/4610 put spread at the open, when it got down to 4.00. I was looking to close then, but reversal happened too fast on me then I took a huge dose of hopium. Now I’m looking for SPX to recover more in this final half hour to minimize (or fingers crossed, eliminate) my losses.
#SPX5dte Expected to expire with max profit of 20.00: Nov 26th 4700/4680 put spreads, bought last Friday for 15.70, so 4.30 profit.
Upside Warning FIRMLY canceled
#VIXIndicator Pre-market $VIX high of 28.02. All we needed for cancelation was 22.10.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX 4695/4675 put spreads for 8.35. Calls sold yesterday for 3.00 so 11.35 total. Condors bought for 15.40 last Thursday so 4.05 loss.
These consolidation periods make this strategy more difficult.
#SPX1dte – I forgot to sell one yesterday, but will today for Friday expiration.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 24th 4705/4725 call spreads for 3.00. Saving put spreads for later. I rarely sell call spreads first as this market relentlessly surprises to the upside. But I feel we’ll have another leg lower, at least today. Condors bought for 15.40 last Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 22nd 4720/4740 call spreads for 7.70. Put side sold for 8.20 on Friday, so 15.90 total credit. Condors bought for 15.05 last Tuesday so .85 profit. I wanted to try to ride this higher but I got filled before I could adjust my limit.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 22nd 4710/4690 put spreads for 8.20. Call side holding for later today or Monday. Condors bought for 15.05 on Tuesday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 19th 4670/4650 put spreads for 3.20. I think the bias is to upside but got caught in the huge spike without enough time to alter my bid. Now I need a decent recovery into tomorrow’s close to collect on the call side. Condors bought for 15.45 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 17th 4655/4675 call spreads for 19.00. Condors bought for 16.25 last Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 4690/4710-4720/4740 condors for 15.05, with SPX at 4714.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 15th 4675/4655 put spreads for 4.30. Unfortunately still holding call spreads as I missed my fills on the earlier spikes higher. These mornings are crucial to manage properly to keep this strategy robust. When we are opening so near the dead zone, I need to take advantage of the morning swings and make sure to get filled.
SPX trades
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 17th 4625/4645-4655/4675 condors for 16.25, with SPX at 4651.
VXX adding
#VXXGame My only trade going other than SPX: Bought more $VXX June 2022 10 puts for .30. Adds to the position, now at 0.323 average price. Also have January 2023 10 puts purchased for avg 1.008.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 10th 4680/4700 call spreads for 5.50. Puts sold yesterday for 3.50, so 9.00, and loss of 6.45 total.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Nov 10th 4670/4650 put spreads for 3.50. Saving 4680/4700 call spreads for now. Condors bought for 15.45 last Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 12th 4675/4695-4705/4725 condors for 15.25, With SPX at 4700.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte STOPPED, Bought to close $SPX Nov 5th 4595/4615 call spreads for 2.50. Condors sold yesterday for .95. Stop really was hit in pre-market when I should have exited, but fortunately we have faded from the highs so my loss is bearable.
SPX7dte/5dte Results
#SPX5dte (formerly #SPX7dteLong) I started this during the depths of the pandmeic-panic in April 2020. I was getting blown out on my #SPX1dte strategy with gap opens that hadn’t happened in years, and I realized it was pretty much guaranteed that the market would move more than 20 points each week. I stuck with it and it turns out it has been a workable strategy even in quieter times. After a weaker performance in Jan-Jun 2021, I started being more active with exits, rather than waiting for expiration. That as helped and you can see the trend improving in recent months. Happy to answer questions, and I can provide more details in the coming weeks.
The chart is tracking PER OPTION gains and losses, so does not account for quantities. Currently, for every $15,000 in each account, I am buying 1 condor per expiry in this strategy, and simultaneously 1 condor per expiry in my #SPX1dte strategy. So for this strategy from April 2020 to present I have made 10K for every 15K in each account.
October Jobs Report
#Jobs — After two months below, October was ABOVE expectations. Additionally, 235K were added in prior-month revisions.
Gain of +531,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 450K.
Unemployment at 4.6%, down by 0.2
U6 unemployment at 8.3%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation 61.6%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up 0.4%, or 4.9% year over year
September jobs revised up by +118K to +312K
August jobs revised up by +117K to +483K
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 10th 4650/4670-4680/4700 condors for 15.45, with SPX at 4674.
SPX trades
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 8th 4605/4625-4635/4655 condors for 16.20, with SPX at 4632.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Nov 5th 4580/4600-4610/4630 condors for 16.25, with SPX at 4607.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 1st 4515/4535-4640/4660 condors for .90, SPX at 4599, IV 7.2%, deltas -.06 +.06.
Expected to expire: Oct 29th 4515/4535-4630/4650 condors, sold yesterday for .85.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 29th 4575/4595 call spreads for 9.40. Puts sold yesterday for 5.80, so 15.20 total. Condors bought Monday for 14.55, so .65 profit. Pulling the plug early because of yesterday’s sell-off into the close.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 29th 4565/4545 put spreads for 5.80. Still holding 4575/4595 call side. Condors bought for 14.55 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Order filled when $SPX was at about 4595: Sold to close Oct 27th 4540/4560 call spreads for 18.50. Puts sold for 3.35 yesterday, so 21.85 total, so 7.10 total profit.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte When $SPX was at 4551, sold to close Oct 27th 4530/4510 put spreads for 3.35. Still holding 4540/4560 call side. Condors bought for 14.75 on Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 25th 4515/4395 put spreads for 2.00. Holding calls for now. Condors bought for 14.85 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 27th 4510/4530-4540/4560 condors for 14.75, with SPX at 4536.
SPX trades
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Oct 25th 4495/4515-4525/4545 condors for 14.85, with SPX at 4516.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator Feels like it’s a few days late but it still should mean more upside in the coming days or weeks.
SPX trades
#SPX5dte Officially changing the name of my long trade to #SPX5dte from the gangly and inaccurate #SPX7dteLong.
Bought to Open $SPX Oct 22nd 4460/4480-4490/4510 condors for 14.85, with SPX at 4483.
Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Oct 18th 4365/4385 call spreads. Condors bought for 17.30 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: Oct 18th 4380/4400-4515/4535 condors, sold Friday for 1.05.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 18th 4380/4400-4515/4535 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4468, IV 8.6%, deltas -.07 +.07
Expiring: Oct 15th 4345/4365-4485/4505 condors, sold yesterday for .95
#SPX5dte Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Oct 15th 4385/4405 call spreads, bought Monday for 17.20. Puts sold yesterday for .80, so total profit of 3.60.
Officially changing the name of my long trade to #SPX5dte from the gangly and inaccurate #SPX7dteLong.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator So we never got much of a drop but it certainly was choppy for a few weeks. $VIX closes tomorrow and Monday below 18.49 will mean an Upside Warning.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX 4415/4435-4445/4465 condors for 15.75, with SPX at 4438.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 13th 4415/4395 put spreads for 16.75. Still holding call side. Condors bought for 16.85 last Thursday. In the recent volatility I have been letting these expire, but after yesterday’s drubbing I need to return to closing these on swings.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 15th 4355/4375-4385/4405 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 4384.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 4290/4310-4450/4470 condors for 1.20, SPX at 4396, IV 10.5%, deltas -.06 +.06
Expiring: Oct 8th 4310/4330-4465/4485 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10
#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Oct 8th 4300/4320 call spreads. Condors bought Monday for 17.90.
September Jobs Report
#Jobs — Second month in a row below expectations, lowest increase of the year
Gain of +194,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 500K.
Unemployment at 4.8%, down by 0.4
U6 unemployment at 8.5%, down by 0.3
Labor force participation 61.6%, down by 0.1%
Average hourly earnings up 0.6% vs expected .4%
August jobs revised up by +131K to +366K
July jobs revised up by +38K to +1.091M
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Earlier: Bought to Open Oct 13th 4395/4415-4425/4435 condors for 16.85, with SPX at 4418.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 8th 4310/4330-4465/4485 condors for 1.10, SPX at 4410, IV 13.4%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 6th 4340/4320 put spreads for 10.90. Still holding call side for any additional bounce today. Condors bought for 17.90 last Thursday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 11th 4335/4355-4365/4385 condors for 17.40, with SPX at 4360.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 8th 4270/4290-4300/4320 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4292.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Oct 6th 4320/4340-4350/4370 condors for 17.90, with SPX at 4341
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Oct 1st 4455/4475 call spreads for .70. Condors bought Monday for 15.25. Puts sold for 15.30. So .75 profit.
Expiring today worthless: Sep 29th 4470/4490 call spreads. Condors bought for 15.95 last Thursday. Put side sold for 9.20 on Monday, so 6.75 loss.
Downside Warning is already back!
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Oct 1 4445/4425 put spreads for 15.30. Condors bought for 15.25 yesterday. This is a breakeven move, but I still hold the call spreads until Friday. So any meaningful bounce, even today, will give me profit.
This is what the DW is meant for…
….too bad it got canceled on Friday. This has been the Summer of Swings for the #VIXindicator.
