#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Jan 12th 2580/2555 put spreads for 1.50.
Closed on GTC order: Dec 29th 2500/2475 put spreads for .20.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2260/2635 put spreads for 8.80. Another bullish position based on potential for Upside Warning hitting tomorrow.
SPX long
#SPXcampaign Bought $SPX Jan 12th 2750/2775 call spreads for .45. I set up this spread as a potential to sell, but when I saw the low premium I decided to buy as a low risk shot at a run to 2700. This spread will sell for 5.00 or more if we get there by end of the month.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/11/17
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.
Items marked with a Blue Star are potentially market moving:
SPX – Final trades and expiration
#SPXcampaign The VIX ended th day on its lows, signaling the likelihood of a new Upside Warning next week. So I closed the two Jan 5th call spreads I sold this week, one with sufficient profit and one with a loss, but easy to roll next week.
Closed $SPX Jan 5th 2740/2765 call spreads for .40. Sold for 1.50 on Monday.
Closed $SPX Jan 5th 2705/2730 call spreads for 2.10. Sold for 1.50 yesterday.
#OptionsExpiration, closed 1/3 of this position for 11.50 on Wednesday, and now the rest expires at the max profit.
#Exercised: Dec 8th 2520/2540 LONG call spreads for 20.00. Bought for 3.50 on Nov 27th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Second and final standard spread for this week:
Sold $SPX Jan 5th 2570/2545 put spreads for 1.50.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Sold these only yesterday, but no reason to sit and watch them go further in the hole. Based on today’s action I’m expecting more upside next week so I’m not letting call spreads ride.
Closed $SPX Dec 18th 2640/2665 call spreads for 12.40. Sold yesterday for 8.75.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 20th 2660/2635 put spreads for 10.55. I’ll add another put spread later to make up difference.
Closed on GTC order:
Dec 22nd 2510/2485 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 22nd.
Another LONG SPX
#SPXcampaign Since I have a long $SPX spread expiring at full profit today, adding a new one with the possibility of a further rally shaping up for next week.
Bought SPX Dec 15th 2665/2685 LONG call spreads for 3.00.
Also, closed on GTC order:
SPX Dec 22nd 2495/2470 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 21st.
Futures UP
#Markets #SPXcampaign Jobs report surging the markets higher. If the day remains positive and VIX drops, we are setting up for a new Upside Warning next week. This could mean a rally toward 2700 into the end of the month, which is typical for December. I’ll be watching to once again #ReverseRoll call spreads and get long.
November JOBS report
+228,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 200K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment up one tenth to 8.0%
Wages up 0.2%, one-tenth below estimates, totaling +2.5% for the year
Labor force participation holds at 62.9%
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign. Filled on two call spreads on the spike to new HOD:
Sold $SPX Dec 18th 2640/2665 call spreads for 8.75
Sold $SPX Jan 5th 2705/2730 call spreads for 1.50
FB covered calls
#CoveredCalls #LongStock
On Tuesday, closed $FB Dec 15th 185 call for .15. Sold for 1.53 on Nov 24th.
Today, sold Dec 29th 182.5 call for 1.60.
DUST another call
#ContangoETFs. Filled at the bell: $DUST March 44 call for 1.25. It was the highest strike a couple days ago, but now they’ve added the 45.
CNBC saying sell
#Markets
Guys on Fast Money talking about a lot of selling happening to realize gains in 2017 before next year and the new tax plan. May be reason for drop in last 25 minutes.
RH call
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Sold $RH Dec 29th 120 call for 1.30, giving me a strangle, after selling the 85 put for 1.65 earlier.
SPX long calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed half my longs:
Sold to close $SPX Dec 8th 2620/2640 calls for 11.50. Bought for 3.50 on Nov 27th. Holding the other half to see what happens. I’m not too optimistic for much more upside this week, but I’m up for anything.
RH & AZO earnings
#Earnings Closed $RH Dec 8th 118 and 120 calls for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.20 and 1.15. Orders in to close Dec 8th 90 puts and Dec 15th 85 puts for .05.
Sold RH Dec 29th 85 put for 1.65. I’m almost back into profit after third quarter blowout, so keeping strangles going a bit longer.
$AZO 780 calls closed yesterday. Just closed Dec 8th 615 puts for .10. Strangle sold for 4.575, closed for .675.
Next up… AVGO
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Jan 5th 2525/2500 put spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2630.
Two intraday blow-off tops?
#Markets Another afternoon of weakness.
Unrelated to that, but funny:
The difference between how technical analysis is taught vs. what really happens:
RH earnings
#Earnings Selling strangles in this one, piece by piece. I’ve been fighting with it since last quarter as it has gone parabolic. Payback time. (NOTE: I do not advocate revenge trading, even though I do it)
Sold $RH Dec 8th 120 calls for 1.20
Sold $RH Dec 8th 90 put for 1.30
Sold $RH Dec 15th 85 put for 1.10
AZO closing
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Closed one $AZO 780 call for .75. The 615/780 strangle sold yesterday for 4.575 (avg price). Orders in to sell the other call for .40, and the puts for .05.
DUST call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DUST June 40 call for 3.05. Thanks @ramie77 for the idea.
SPX rolled
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 6th 2640/2615 put spreads for 6.25. Sold last week for 6.40.
This was my only remaining put spread expiring this week, but because it is ending the day ATM, I had to cut it loose to avoid risk of a gap down tomorrow or Wednesday. At least it was breakeven.
I rolled it to…
Sold $SPX Dec 15th (Friday PM) 2585/2610/2580/2705 #CondorRoll for 6.30. This one has more time to expiration thus is more flexible to roll if wings are breached.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order earlier:
$SPX Dec 8th 2585/2555 for .30. Sold for 4.00 as a #ReverseRoll
The Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spread I sold Friday for 1.50 opened today over 3.50. It is now 1.70. I think I will let live to see another day rather than stopping it. If we go negative I will sell a new put spread.
Tax bill consolidation
These seem to be some pretty significant differences. Not sure how smoothly the conference will go to reconcile the two. Full story: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/republican-house-and-senate-tax-plan-differences.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
Sell the news
#Markets I agree with Paul’s sentiment and I am currently playing it this way. Seems once the bill is passed (assuming it will be), that the euphoria will abate and we’ll be stuck with negative headlines from the Mueller investigation. Right now I think we may be entering more of a consolidation phase, or slower trickle up, until the final bill is passed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/jim-paulsen-buy-stocks-before-final-tax-cut-passage-but-sell-after.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
AZO is back
#Earnings One of our favorite earnings trades is back. After a pretty deep dip, premium is decent, although bid/ask spreads are wide and OI is low. So beware.
Sold $AZO Dec 8th 615/780 strangle for 4.50. It took awhile to get filled. Put in an order for a second one at 4.75.
AZO’s ONE-day moves over last 12 quarters: Biggest UP move: 5.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.8%, Average move: 2.8%.
It’s FIVE-day moves are actually less extreme… it seems to retrace any large one-day moves over the following days: Biggest UP move: 4.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.7%, Average move: 2.5%.
My strikes are +11.4% and -12.1% OTM.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign I’m resuming selling call spreads as the upside move is likely at least slowing if not consolidating. That said, I will later be rolling the OTM call spread I sold Friday.
Sold to Open Jan 5th 2740/2765 call spreads for 1.50.
Closed on GTC order:
SPX Dec 14th 2485/2460 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Nov 14th.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/4/17
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated
JOBS report is this Friday, 8:30am ET
Final SPX trades & Expiration
#SPXcampaign #OptionsExpiration
After the bell, sold $SPX Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spreads for 1.85.
After the bell, sold $SPX Dec 20th 2590/2615 call spreads for 20.50. This replaces one of three ITM call spreads I closed before this recent rally.
#Exercised SPX Dec 1st 2615 long calls, for 26.80. Coupled with the earlier cover of the shorts at 9.30, that’s 17.50 for a 15-wide spread. Bought for 2.25 last Friday. Half sold for 9.00 on Tuesday, so average profit of 11.00 for the whole position.
SPX long leg-out
#SPXcampaign Wish I’d done this near the lows but it was too nerve-wracking… closed the short leg of the long $SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 call spread for 9.30. Waiting for higher prices to close the long leg, hopefully netting more than the 15.00 I would have made had I let the whole spread expire ITM. Better not crash on me now!
Twitter and RSS feeds
I’ve added my @OptionsBistro twitter feed and also some CNBC RSS feeds to the right hand column. I’ll be altering or changing these as I monitor content. Any suggestions for RSS feeds, let me know, and if you see a good tweet you can forward it to my Twitter handle @OptionsBistro, and I’ll consider retweeting so it shows up below.
Selling calls
#SPXcampaign I’m looking to sell an ITM call spread (Dec 20th 2590/2615). Waiting to see how much bounce we can get. Also plan to sell a Dec 29 call spread with short about 2710.
RH closed
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Closed these positions to avoid volatility later today:
$RH Dec 1st 95 puts for .20. Sold for 1.77 avg price
$RH Dec 1st 100 put for 1.00. Sold for 3.07 avg price
Mitch McConnell: ‘We have the votes’ to pass tax bill
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/senate-republicans-appear-confident-they-have-the-votes-to-pass-tax-bill.html
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator Based on the indicator, the upside warning just got canceled by the Flynn spike. However, two things to note: the VIX low from last Friday seemed to be an odd tick, but that low is the reason the Indicator cancels the warning. Second, this volatility could be only violent spiking due to the sudden breaking news. A better determination can be made in a couple hours.
Flynn news
I think this is probably a dip to be bought, given that tax news is more a market driver. If Flynn is damaging to Trump, it will be a long time before the extent of any damage is fully known. Other thoughts?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/us-stock-futures-data-opec-tax-on-the-agenda.html
Fidelity Offers Reparations to Customers After Website Outage
The firm is waiving commissions and giving free trades to some clients
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/12/01/fidelity-offers-reparations-to-customers-after-website-outage/?reflink=e2twmkts
More puts
#SPXcampaign After the bell, this filled: $SPX Dec 29th 2540/2515 put spreads for 1.50. Standard weekly spread, the highest I’ve ever sold.
RH closed
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Closing a few of these ahead of tomorrow’s expiration as $RH has had many strong swings lately.
Closed RH Dec 1st 100 put for .70. Sold for 3.08 avg price
Closed RH Dec 1st 105 call for .20. Sold for 2.12 avg price
SPX puts closed today
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX Dec 4th 2570/2545 put spreads for .25. Sold for 4.00 last week.
$SPX Dec 29th 2375/2350 put spreads for .25. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 3.35 on Oct 25th.
$SPX Dec 1st 2615/2590 put spreads for .40. Sold for 4.80 on Tuesday.
DUST call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DUST Jan 30 call for 1.50.
Twitter feeds
Anyone have suggestions for the best Twitter feeds to follow for market-moving breaking news?
McCain bump?
#SPXcampaign He just signaled he will vote “yes,” so higher we go. My only remaining call spread jumped quickly past my stop.
Stopped $SPX Dec 29th 2595/2720 call spreads for 4.20. Sold for 1.50 2 days ago.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 6th 2640/2615 put spreads for 6.50.
Wish I had more long spreads. As of now, I have one and a half positions completely ITM.
SPX calls stopped
#SXPcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 29th 2655/2680 call spread for 6.70. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 3.35 on Oct 25th.
This is my final SPX call spread that has hit stop levels (in this case, gone past it). I’m waiting to roll this as my put spread load is big. Another nice push higher and I can begin selling calls again. Only call spread left is the one I sold yesterday, Dec 29th 2695/2720.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Another reverse roll as I just don’t want to see my two remaining call spreads rack higher and higher in premium.
Stopped $SPX Dec 22nd 2555/2580 call spreads for 6.45. Sold for 1.55 last week.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open $SPX Dec 18th 2630/2605 put spreads for 8.05.
RH rolls
#Earnings Still milking $RH for premium before earnings next week. I’m in the hole from its recent jump higher.
STO RH Dec 1st 105 call for 1.30, adding
BTC RH Dec 1st 95 put for .15. Sold for 1.74 avg price.
SPX sold half of longs
#SPXcampaign Sold to Close $SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 call spreads for 9.00. Bought Friday for 2.25.
Keeping other half until Friday. Also still holding Dec 8th 2620/2640 spreads bought yesterday for 3.50.
SPX calls sold!
#SPXcampaign Okay, so I finally sold some calls… put in an order I didn’t think would fill, but…
Sold $SPX Dec 29th 2695/2720 call spreads for 1.50.
SVXY rolling
#VXXGame #StrangleRoll
Closed $SVXY Feb 115 call for 12.75. Sold in the 80/115 strangle for 13.85
Closed SVXY Dec 15th 95 put for .93. Sold for 5.25 on Oct 20th
Sold SVXY March 75 put for 4.10
Selling SVXY June 150 call for 10.00 (not filled yet)
Upside Warning update
#VIXIndicator Checking in on the progress of this upside warning, referencing my post from the weekend:
https://optionsbistro.com/2017/11/25/upside-warning-in-effect-2/
The predicted HOD’s, based on the average of all highs from past Upside Warnings, measuring from the close on the warnings day (which in the current case was Friday, 11/24):
Mon, Nov 27 Predicted: 0.44% 2,613.87 Actual: +0.15% 2,606.41
Tue, Nov 28 Predicted: 0.46% 2,614.42 Actual: +0.73% 2621.31 (thus far)
So we fell short yesterday, but have gone over today. Of the 4 occurrences this happened before (mild rally first day of Warning, strong rally on second), the averages are:
Day 1 +0.78%
Day 2 +1.43%
Day 3 +1.76%
Day 4 +2.15%
…and then levels off for a few days. Not enough data to make conclusions there, but fun to look at anyway.
SPX, and another reverse roll
#SPXcampaign Jumping on this train that I don’t think will stop until 2630 (at least)
Closed $SPX Dec 1st 2625/2650 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.70 on Oct 31st.
Sold Dec 1st 2615/2590 put spreads for 4.80. This more than covers that roll, also can help cover the one I stopped earlier.
Assumes not much pullback before Friday. That’s what I think is in the cards.
I have only two more short call spreads, currently at 3.40 (Dec 22 2655/2680) and 4.60 (Dec 29 same strikes). I’m going to leave them for today.
VIX unleashed
The VIX seems to be living in a separate universe… swinging wildly today as markets just march higher.
VXX update
#LongPutDiagonals I got out of all short puts awhile back, letting my $VXX Jan ’19 long 20 puts to prosper unheeded. Mid-price currently 3.60, with avg purchase was 1.77. I anticipate closing these next fall for over 10.00.
Closed $VXX Dec 15th 30 call for 1.75. Sold for 6.50 (avg price) in October. Leaving one more to exit cheaper.
SPX how to deal with bullies
#SPXcampaign Answer: just get out of short call spreads.
Stopped $SPX Dec 8th 2635/2660 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.51 on Nov 10th.
Waiting to roll.
SPX bully
#SPXcampaign It’s off to the races on the Upside Warning once again.
Stopped: $SPX Dec 14th 2640/2665 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.50 on Nov 16th.
Trying to #ReverseRoll, maybe I could get a small pullback? Too much to ask?
STMP stock
#Earnings #EarlyAssignment #LongStock
I was assigned on all $STMP Dec 1st 200/180 put spreads, so now I only carry long stock. I just sold the last long put for 4.00. With all the selling of naked options, put spreads, and finally the long puts left after short puts in the spreads were assigned, my cost basis is 179.62. About where we’re trading now. I’ll start peeling this off before it returns to 200.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Nov 29th 2585/2560 put spreads for .40. Sold for 10.15 on Nov 15th.
Pre-market puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, closed $SPX Dec 14th 2450/2425 put spreads for .30. Sold for 1.55 on Nov 14th.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 29th 2500/2475 put spreads for 1.45.
Bought to Open Dec 8th 2620/2640 call spreads for 3.50.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Nov 27th 2490/2465 put spread for .20. Sold for 2.00 on Wednesday.
Stopped SPX Dec 14th 2635/2660 call spreads for 3.35. Sold for 1.90 on Nov 14th.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 8th 2585/2555 put spreads for 4.00. (I meant to do 25-wide, but mistakenly sold 30-wide).
Econ Calendar for week of 11/27/17
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
NOTE: November JOBS report will be released on Friday, December 8th.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator. Once again, the dip was quickly bought and a new Upside Warning went into effect on Friday. The VIX also notched an all-time low; if the CBOE does not correct it as a glitch. The VIX was wavering around 9.60 on Friday at the closing bell, and then briefly dipped down to tag 8.56, which is it’s lowest reading ever. It quickly jumped back to close at 9.67. So it may have been a bad tick, but if not corrected it is the new record low.
An Upside Warning is a reliable signal of a rally higher. Since Jan 1, 2000 (HOD=high of day)
31 upside warnings
25 times the HOD on 5th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD on the 10th day was above the close of the Warning day
21 times the HOD was over 1% higher on any day within the first 10 days after the Warning
18 times the HOD was over 2% higher on any day within the first 20 days after the Warning
Looking at the highs of the day from all 31 occurrences, here are the expected moves UP from the close on Friday (2602.42).
Mon, Nov 27 0.44% 2,613.87
Tue, Nov 28 0.46% 2,614.42
Wed, Nov 29 0.48% 2,614.85
Thu, Nov 30 0.46% 2,614.29
Fri, Dec 1 0.59% 2,617.71
Sat, Dec 2 0.56% 2,616.98
Sun, Dec 3 0.77% 2,622.40
Mon, Dec 4 0.92% 2,626.44
Tue, Dec 5 0.89% 2,625.65
Wed, Dec 6 1.02% 2,628.99
These are averages, so the actual move will tend to be sharper or more gradual.
VIX all-time low?
Right after the bell the VIX notched 8.56, and then jumped back up immediately. Not sure what causes that, and unless they retract it as a bad tick, it’s a new all-time low.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign To lessen the pressure if we do pullback Monday, and to take nice profits:
Closed $SPX Dec 1st 2570/2545 put spreads for .75. Sold for 6.50 on Nov 14th.
No expirations today… have a great weekend all!
More SPX
#SPXcampaign On the small pullback:
Closed $SPX Dec 4th 2575/2600 call spreads for 19.55. Sold for 14.00 last week.
Bought to open SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 LONG call spreads for 2.25
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Upside Warning looks imminent. Getting long.
Closed on GTC order: $SPX Dec 8th 2480/2455 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.44 on Nov 10th.
Closed Dec 1st 2565/2590 call spreads for 22.15. Sold for 15.60 last week. Waiting to roll.
Working on buying some short term call spreads. Also rolling one of these recently closed ITM call spreads into an #IronButterfly or #InverseCondor.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 2655/2680 call spreads for 1.60.
VIX is up today while SPX is also up. This has not been too unusual in the last year of soaring indices. If we can stay below 10.17 today, it will mean Upside Warning. That said, I feel comfortable with this distance OTM, as it will be easy to roll should the rally be strong.
FB covered call
#LongStock #CoveredCalls
Sold $FB Dec 15th 185 call for 1.53
New SPX all-time high
Also highest TICK reading sine early Sept.
SVXY new all-time high
VXX and UVXY all-time lows
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Tried to catch the lows but ended up chasing back up.
Sold $SPX Nov 27th 2590/2565 put spreads for 2.00. Expires Monday.
Sold Dec 22nd 2510/2485 for 1.45.
Also, yesterday, closed Nov 29th 2565/2590 call spreads for 21.75. Sold for 13.50 on Nov 15th. Waiting for bigger swings to sell this roll.
Earnings & Stock positions this week
#Earnings #LongStock #Rolling #CoveredCalls
$RH #ShortStrangles Dumped my final Dec 1st short 95 call for 8.50, and 80 puts for .10. Then the stock annoyingly dropped, after I’d closed the whole batch for high prices. I gotta ways to go to make up for it. I’m keeping new sales at the Dec 1st expiration, before earnings:
Sold 100 put for 3.50, adding to position
Sold 95 put for 2.65, adding to position
Sold 105 call for 2.95
$FB BTC Dec 1st 187.5 call for .12. Sold for 1.25 on 11/3. I’ll sell a new one on next rally.
$LITE Sold a fourth of my stock for 58.20. Cost basis 60.50. Looks to be recovering so will wait on the rest, with stops in place.
$STMP Assigned another 100 shares last night, disrupting my Dec 1st 200/180 put spread. Will sell the long put today. This leaves me with one remaining put spread and 200 shares.
$HCA This stock was sold for 75.29.by my broker on Friday afternoon due to margin concerns (futzing with SPX spreads). Not thrilled about this, but it has been an annoying one. An 80 covered call also expired Friday, so I’m now flat. Cost basis was 84.00 so that was a crappy loss.
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 22nd 2640/2665 call spreads for 2.95. Sold for 1.60 yesterday.
Sold to Open SPX Dec 1st 2585/2560 put spreads for 3.20.
I’m preparing for the possibility of another upside warning, which could bring us to 2630 before Dec 1st. I’m going to hold off on the sale of regular call spreads, close my remaining ITM call spreads and roll them into puts or wait for higher SPX prices before I roll them again.
Also, closed on GTC order: Nov 27th 2560/2535 put spreads for .40. Sold for 2.90.
New highs and lows
SPX, RUT, and Nasdaq at all-time highs.
All #VXXGame products at all time highs and lows (VXX, UVXY, SVXY).
VIX below the 78.6% from last week’s peaks. Two more days below 10.17 is a fresh Upside Warning.
SPX puts sold and closed
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2495/2470 put spreads for 1.45.
Closed on GTC orders:
Dec 1st 2480/2455 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.47 on Oct 30th.
Dec 1st 2490/2465 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 3rd.
