#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order:
$SPX Jan 5th 2525/2500 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45.
Looks like I’ll be stopping my only short call spread: the Jan 12th 2730/2755 sold last week. Not sure when I can sell those safely again. We already hit my target for the 29th: 2690. That’s where I have an #IronButterfly centered. Reached the target only one day after selling it.
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This is a VERY important article to read for any one doing #VXXGame trades. I first learned the game from @optioniceman in December 2012 and made great profits for two years. However, you do suffer through pain and possible margin calls on big volatility events. After white-knuckling October 2014, I scaled back and participate on a much lower scale now. My profits have been smaller as a result, as the trade has remained stronger than ever since that event.
Although I have long understood the basics of this article, I still learned some new perspective by reading this today. Check it out. Ask questions, start a discussion.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131144-next-big-short-potential-cause-market-decline?auth_param=bf3bv:1d386u2:98769c7c2dd6077dfe86fe528712f8a4&uprof=37
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 27th 2665/2640 put spreads for 4.60, as a #ReverseRoll from Dec 26th calls stopped earlier.
Closed Dec 22nd 2670/2695 call spreads for 11.60. Sold yesterday for 5.55.
#IBroll to Dec 29th 2665/2690/2690/2715 #IronButterfly. Shooting for ending the year at or near 2690, but either way I can roll as necessary.
No Expirations.
Is it finally getting off its ass?
#SPXcampaign As per usual, whenever I’m forced to hedge against a big drop I end up getting slammed on the call side.
Stopped $SPX Sept 26th 2695/2720 call spreads for 4.45. Sold yesterday in the 2620/2645/2695/2720 #CondorRoll for 6.65. Fortunately the put side has made more than the calls lost today (put deltas were much higher than the calls when I sold it).
Haven’t decided how I’m rolling yet. Also have a call spread I sold yesterday, Dec 22nd 2670/2695 for 5.55, now at 10.65. Looking to close this one as well.
#SPXcampaign Closed my long call spread that expires today.
First, I closed the short 2685 calls for .10. These can cause problems closing a spread that’s expiring on the same day. If they are too far OTM they won’t carry a bid in the afternoon, so I cleared them away so I could deal only with long 2665 calls.
Closed $SPX Dec 15th 2665 calls for 3.50 and 3.70. Bought the spread for 3.00.
Then, the SPX took off, so I closed the rest at 7.70. What a difference 10 minutes makes!
Also:
Sold $SPX Jan 12th 2730/2755 call spreads for 1.50. Had not sold any calls this week, anticipating the Upside Warning. But since it hasn’t come I’m dipping my toe back into call credit spreads.
Closed on GTC order:
Dec 29th 2540/2515 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 in last week of Nov
#SPXcampaign So my mental stop on this spread was 2655. When we hit that I put in a low bid to close and was set to watch for a bounce. Then if we start moving higher, I keep lowering the bid to hopefully exit on a bounce. So we spent about 25 minutes near the lows, and my bid was 7.20. I stepped into the kitchen and it filled on the first minor pop. Now it’s trading for 6.50 on what may be the bounce. It’s the peril of riding ATM spreads so close to expiration.
Closed $SPX Dec 15th 2660/2635 put spreads for 7.20. Sold for 3.70.
#CondorRoll Sold Dec 26th 2620/2645/2695/2720 condors for 6.65
#Markets Marco Rubio is a reported “no” on the current plan. Mike Lee is undecided. If that’s what’s driving us down today, I say BTFD.
#SPXcampaign I’m still believing we get a combination Santa-Claus/Tax-reform rally, as Republicans look closer than ever to meeting their Christmas deadline. However, the failure on the upside warning firing has definitely come through, as the rally was immediately halted and now we are wavering. As I cleared all call spreads and am short only put spreads, my risk is too lopsided, so I had to #ReverseRoll at least one of them.
Closed $SPX Dec 18th 2660/2635 put spreads for 5.50. Sold yesterday for 3.65.
Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2670/2695 call spreads for 5.55.
My bet is on a bounce into tomorrow’s quadruple witching expiration and then higher next week. But this hedges me some if we go lower instead.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/fcc-reverses-open-internet-order-governing-net-neutrality.html
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order:
$SPX Dec 18th 2630/2605 put spreads for .40. Sold for 8.00 last week.
#SPXcampaign I sold one more put spread, but now not liking how we closed. Hoping for another push UP this week and a chance to start adding call spreads and even myself out. We may be topping out, but if they do manage to pass tax bill we could see another push up.
Sold $SPX Dec 18th 2660/2635 put spreads for 3.65.
#VIXIndicator Despite hitting a new all-time high today, the VIX spiked at day’s end, ending on the highs. This means no Upside Warning yet. We’ll need three more consecutive days below 9.85. Unless we see a market drop tomorrow, signs are still bullish for year end.
#SPXcampaign Closed my last two remaining call credit spreads:
Closed $SPX Dec 20th 2590/2615 call spreads for 24.35. Sold ITM for 20.45. Waiting to replace when upside move tires out.
Closed SPX Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spreads for 2.25. Sold for 1.40 on Dec 1st.
Waiting to roll both tomorrow. Depending on how CBOE calls the close on VIX, we may or may not have an Upside Warning.
#ShortStrangles Added to the short side of my $RH strangle, sold Dec 29th 90 puts for 1.20 and 1.30.
#VXXGame Yesterday, Bought to close Dec 15th VXX 30 call for .55. Sold for 6.50 avg price in October.
Today, Bought to close $SVXY March 122 call for 16.20. Sold in a strangle for 19.35 on 10/27
Rolled to:
Sold SVXY June 85 put for 8.95
Sold SVXY June 160 call for 8.90
#SPXcampaign Stopped: $SPX Dec 15th 2680/2705 for 3.55. Sold in a #CondorRoll last week.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 15th 2660/2635 put spreads for 3.80.
Also, closed on GTC order:
Dec 15th 2610/2585 put spreads for .20. Sold for 3.40.
We’re off and running… Upside Warning going into effect at the close, provided VIX closes below 9.85
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Jan 12th 2580/2555 put spreads for 1.50.
Closed on GTC order: Dec 29th 2500/2475 put spreads for .20.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2260/2635 put spreads for 8.80. Another bullish position based on potential for Upside Warning hitting tomorrow.
#SPXcampaign Bought $SPX Jan 12th 2750/2775 call spreads for .45. I set up this spread as a potential to sell, but when I saw the low premium I decided to buy as a low risk shot at a run to 2700. This spread will sell for 5.00 or more if we get there by end of the month.
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Items marked with a Blue Star are potentially market moving:
#SPXcampaign The VIX ended th day on its lows, signaling the likelihood of a new Upside Warning next week. So I closed the two Jan 5th call spreads I sold this week, one with sufficient profit and one with a loss, but easy to roll next week.
Closed $SPX Jan 5th 2740/2765 call spreads for .40. Sold for 1.50 on Monday.
Closed $SPX Jan 5th 2705/2730 call spreads for 2.10. Sold for 1.50 yesterday.
#OptionsExpiration, closed 1/3 of this position for 11.50 on Wednesday, and now the rest expires at the max profit.
#Exercised: Dec 8th 2520/2540 LONG call spreads for 20.00. Bought for 3.50 on Nov 27th.
#SPXcampaign Second and final standard spread for this week:
Sold $SPX Jan 5th 2570/2545 put spreads for 1.50.
#SPXcampaign Sold these only yesterday, but no reason to sit and watch them go further in the hole. Based on today’s action I’m expecting more upside next week so I’m not letting call spreads ride.
Closed $SPX Dec 18th 2640/2665 call spreads for 12.40. Sold yesterday for 8.75.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 20th 2660/2635 put spreads for 10.55. I’ll add another put spread later to make up difference.
Closed on GTC order:
Dec 22nd 2510/2485 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 22nd.
#SPXcampaign Since I have a long $SPX spread expiring at full profit today, adding a new one with the possibility of a further rally shaping up for next week.
Bought SPX Dec 15th 2665/2685 LONG call spreads for 3.00.
Also, closed on GTC order:
SPX Dec 22nd 2495/2470 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 21st.
#Markets #SPXcampaign Jobs report surging the markets higher. If the day remains positive and VIX drops, we are setting up for a new Upside Warning next week. This could mean a rally toward 2700 into the end of the month, which is typical for December. I’ll be watching to once again #ReverseRoll call spreads and get long.
+228,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 200K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment up one tenth to 8.0%
Wages up 0.2%, one-tenth below estimates, totaling +2.5% for the year
Labor force participation holds at 62.9%
#SPXcampaign. Filled on two call spreads on the spike to new HOD:
Sold $SPX Dec 18th 2640/2665 call spreads for 8.75
Sold $SPX Jan 5th 2705/2730 call spreads for 1.50
#CoveredCalls #LongStock
On Tuesday, closed $FB Dec 15th 185 call for .15. Sold for 1.53 on Nov 24th.
Today, sold Dec 29th 182.5 call for 1.60.
#ContangoETFs. Filled at the bell: $DUST March 44 call for 1.25. It was the highest strike a couple days ago, but now they’ve added the 45.
#Markets
Guys on Fast Money talking about a lot of selling happening to realize gains in 2017 before next year and the new tax plan. May be reason for drop in last 25 minutes.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Sold $RH Dec 29th 120 call for 1.30, giving me a strangle, after selling the 85 put for 1.65 earlier.
#SPXcampaign Closed half my longs:
Sold to close $SPX Dec 8th 2620/2640 calls for 11.50. Bought for 3.50 on Nov 27th. Holding the other half to see what happens. I’m not too optimistic for much more upside this week, but I’m up for anything.
#Earnings Closed $RH Dec 8th 118 and 120 calls for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.20 and 1.15. Orders in to close Dec 8th 90 puts and Dec 15th 85 puts for .05.
Sold RH Dec 29th 85 put for 1.65. I’m almost back into profit after third quarter blowout, so keeping strangles going a bit longer.
$AZO 780 calls closed yesterday. Just closed Dec 8th 615 puts for .10. Strangle sold for 4.575, closed for .675.
Next up… AVGO
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Jan 5th 2525/2500 put spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2630.
#Markets Another afternoon of weakness.
Unrelated to that, but funny:
The difference between how technical analysis is taught vs. what really happens:
#Earnings Selling strangles in this one, piece by piece. I’ve been fighting with it since last quarter as it has gone parabolic. Payback time. (NOTE: I do not advocate revenge trading, even though I do it)
Sold $RH Dec 8th 120 calls for 1.20
Sold $RH Dec 8th 90 put for 1.30
Sold $RH Dec 15th 85 put for 1.10
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Closed one $AZO 780 call for .75. The 615/780 strangle sold yesterday for 4.575 (avg price). Orders in to sell the other call for .40, and the puts for .05.
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DUST June 40 call for 3.05. Thanks @ramie77 for the idea.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 6th 2640/2615 put spreads for 6.25. Sold last week for 6.40.
This was my only remaining put spread expiring this week, but because it is ending the day ATM, I had to cut it loose to avoid risk of a gap down tomorrow or Wednesday. At least it was breakeven.
I rolled it to…
Sold $SPX Dec 15th (Friday PM) 2585/2610/2580/2705 #CondorRoll for 6.30. This one has more time to expiration thus is more flexible to roll if wings are breached.
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order earlier:
$SPX Dec 8th 2585/2555 for .30. Sold for 4.00 as a #ReverseRoll
The Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spread I sold Friday for 1.50 opened today over 3.50. It is now 1.70. I think I will let live to see another day rather than stopping it. If we go negative I will sell a new put spread.
These seem to be some pretty significant differences. Not sure how smoothly the conference will go to reconcile the two. Full story: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/republican-house-and-senate-tax-plan-differences.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
#Markets I agree with Paul’s sentiment and I am currently playing it this way. Seems once the bill is passed (assuming it will be), that the euphoria will abate and we’ll be stuck with negative headlines from the Mueller investigation. Right now I think we may be entering more of a consolidation phase, or slower trickle up, until the final bill is passed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/jim-paulsen-buy-stocks-before-final-tax-cut-passage-but-sell-after.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
#Earnings One of our favorite earnings trades is back. After a pretty deep dip, premium is decent, although bid/ask spreads are wide and OI is low. So beware.
Sold $AZO Dec 8th 615/780 strangle for 4.50. It took awhile to get filled. Put in an order for a second one at 4.75.
AZO’s ONE-day moves over last 12 quarters: Biggest UP move: 5.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.8%, Average move: 2.8%.
It’s FIVE-day moves are actually less extreme… it seems to retrace any large one-day moves over the following days: Biggest UP move: 4.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.7%, Average move: 2.5%.
My strikes are +11.4% and -12.1% OTM.
#SPXcampaign I’m resuming selling call spreads as the upside move is likely at least slowing if not consolidating. That said, I will later be rolling the OTM call spread I sold Friday.
Sold to Open Jan 5th 2740/2765 call spreads for 1.50.
Closed on GTC order:
SPX Dec 14th 2485/2460 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Nov 14th.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated
JOBS report is this Friday, 8:30am ET
#SPXcampaign #OptionsExpiration
After the bell, sold $SPX Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spreads for 1.85.
After the bell, sold $SPX Dec 20th 2590/2615 call spreads for 20.50. This replaces one of three ITM call spreads I closed before this recent rally.
#Exercised SPX Dec 1st 2615 long calls, for 26.80. Coupled with the earlier cover of the shorts at 9.30, that’s 17.50 for a 15-wide spread. Bought for 2.25 last Friday. Half sold for 9.00 on Tuesday, so average profit of 11.00 for the whole position.
#SPXcampaign Wish I’d done this near the lows but it was too nerve-wracking… closed the short leg of the long $SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 call spread for 9.30. Waiting for higher prices to close the long leg, hopefully netting more than the 15.00 I would have made had I let the whole spread expire ITM. Better not crash on me now!
I’ve added my @OptionsBistro twitter feed and also some CNBC RSS feeds to the right hand column. I’ll be altering or changing these as I monitor content. Any suggestions for RSS feeds, let me know, and if you see a good tweet you can forward it to my Twitter handle @OptionsBistro, and I’ll consider retweeting so it shows up below.
#SPXcampaign I’m looking to sell an ITM call spread (Dec 20th 2590/2615). Waiting to see how much bounce we can get. Also plan to sell a Dec 29 call spread with short about 2710.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Closed these positions to avoid volatility later today:
$RH Dec 1st 95 puts for .20. Sold for 1.77 avg price
$RH Dec 1st 100 put for 1.00. Sold for 3.07 avg price
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/senate-republicans-appear-confident-they-have-the-votes-to-pass-tax-bill.html
#VIXIndicator Based on the indicator, the upside warning just got canceled by the Flynn spike. However, two things to note: the VIX low from last Friday seemed to be an odd tick, but that low is the reason the Indicator cancels the warning. Second, this volatility could be only violent spiking due to the sudden breaking news. A better determination can be made in a couple hours.
I think this is probably a dip to be bought, given that tax news is more a market driver. If Flynn is damaging to Trump, it will be a long time before the extent of any damage is fully known. Other thoughts?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/us-stock-futures-data-opec-tax-on-the-agenda.html
The firm is waiving commissions and giving free trades to some clients
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/12/01/fidelity-offers-reparations-to-customers-after-website-outage/?reflink=e2twmkts
#SPXcampaign After the bell, this filled: $SPX Dec 29th 2540/2515 put spreads for 1.50. Standard weekly spread, the highest I’ve ever sold.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles Closing a few of these ahead of tomorrow’s expiration as $RH has had many strong swings lately.
Closed RH Dec 1st 100 put for .70. Sold for 3.08 avg price
Closed RH Dec 1st 105 call for .20. Sold for 2.12 avg price
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX Dec 4th 2570/2545 put spreads for .25. Sold for 4.00 last week.
$SPX Dec 29th 2375/2350 put spreads for .25. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 3.35 on Oct 25th.
$SPX Dec 1st 2615/2590 put spreads for .40. Sold for 4.80 on Tuesday.
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DUST Jan 30 call for 1.50.
Anyone have suggestions for the best Twitter feeds to follow for market-moving breaking news?
#SPXcampaign He just signaled he will vote “yes,” so higher we go. My only remaining call spread jumped quickly past my stop.
Stopped $SPX Dec 29th 2595/2720 call spreads for 4.20. Sold for 1.50 2 days ago.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 6th 2640/2615 put spreads for 6.50.
Wish I had more long spreads. As of now, I have one and a half positions completely ITM.
#SXPcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 29th 2655/2680 call spread for 6.70. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 3.35 on Oct 25th.
This is my final SPX call spread that has hit stop levels (in this case, gone past it). I’m waiting to roll this as my put spread load is big. Another nice push higher and I can begin selling calls again. Only call spread left is the one I sold yesterday, Dec 29th 2695/2720.
#SPXcampaign Another reverse roll as I just don’t want to see my two remaining call spreads rack higher and higher in premium.
Stopped $SPX Dec 22nd 2555/2580 call spreads for 6.45. Sold for 1.55 last week.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open $SPX Dec 18th 2630/2605 put spreads for 8.05.
#Earnings Still milking $RH for premium before earnings next week. I’m in the hole from its recent jump higher.
STO RH Dec 1st 105 call for 1.30, adding
BTC RH Dec 1st 95 put for .15. Sold for 1.74 avg price.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Close $SPX Dec 1st 2615/2630 call spreads for 9.00. Bought Friday for 2.25.
Keeping other half until Friday. Also still holding Dec 8th 2620/2640 spreads bought yesterday for 3.50.
#SPXcampaign Okay, so I finally sold some calls… put in an order I didn’t think would fill, but…
Sold $SPX Dec 29th 2695/2720 call spreads for 1.50.
#VXXGame #StrangleRoll
Closed $SVXY Feb 115 call for 12.75. Sold in the 80/115 strangle for 13.85
Closed SVXY Dec 15th 95 put for .93. Sold for 5.25 on Oct 20th
Sold SVXY March 75 put for 4.10
Selling SVXY June 150 call for 10.00 (not filled yet)
#VIXIndicator Checking in on the progress of this upside warning, referencing my post from the weekend:
https://optionsbistro.com/2017/11/25/upside-warning-in-effect-2/
The predicted HOD’s, based on the average of all highs from past Upside Warnings, measuring from the close on the warnings day (which in the current case was Friday, 11/24):
Mon, Nov 27 Predicted: 0.44% 2,613.87 Actual: +0.15% 2,606.41
Tue, Nov 28 Predicted: 0.46% 2,614.42 Actual: +0.73% 2621.31 (thus far)
So we fell short yesterday, but have gone over today. Of the 4 occurrences this happened before (mild rally first day of Warning, strong rally on second), the averages are:
Day 1 +0.78%
Day 2 +1.43%
Day 3 +1.76%
Day 4 +2.15%
…and then levels off for a few days. Not enough data to make conclusions there, but fun to look at anyway.
#SPXcampaign Jumping on this train that I don’t think will stop until 2630 (at least)
Closed $SPX Dec 1st 2625/2650 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.70 on Oct 31st.
Sold Dec 1st 2615/2590 put spreads for 4.80. This more than covers that roll, also can help cover the one I stopped earlier.
Assumes not much pullback before Friday. That’s what I think is in the cards.
I have only two more short call spreads, currently at 3.40 (Dec 22 2655/2680) and 4.60 (Dec 29 same strikes). I’m going to leave them for today.
The VIX seems to be living in a separate universe… swinging wildly today as markets just march higher.
#LongPutDiagonals I got out of all short puts awhile back, letting my $VXX Jan ’19 long 20 puts to prosper unheeded. Mid-price currently 3.60, with avg purchase was 1.77. I anticipate closing these next fall for over 10.00.
Closed $VXX Dec 15th 30 call for 1.75. Sold for 6.50 (avg price) in October. Leaving one more to exit cheaper.
#SPXcampaign Answer: just get out of short call spreads.
Stopped $SPX Dec 8th 2635/2660 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.51 on Nov 10th.
Waiting to roll.
