#SPXcampaign I was futzing around with taking some risk off yesterday, but was not filled. Then I forgot to take the order off, so this closed overnight, regretfully now that it’s trading at .60.
Closed $SPX Jan 8th 2710/2685 put spreads for 1.40. Sold for 6.20 on Wednesday.
+148,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 180K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment up one tenth to 8.1%
Wages up 0.3%, totaling +2.5% for the year
Labor force participation holds at 62.7%
#VIXIndicator #Market An Upside Warning went into effect, meaning the risk is to upside: higher prices on the indices. I was hoping for some relaxation or minor pullback to start us off, but we are over 8 points higher again on $SPX. No use fighting it.
Jobs report in 20 minutes.
#Earnings Bullish trend, stellar earnings performance.
Sold $STZ Jan 19th 220 put for 2.20. Will add another.
One day moves: Biggest UP move: 6.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.1%, Average move: 3.8%. +2.6% upside bias. This trade is -3.9% OTM.
Over last 12 reports, -7.1% was its only move down the day after, and that improved to only -2.7% thirteen days later (which is roughly expiration).
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Jan 18th (monthlys) 2750/2775 call spreads for 2.15. Sold for 1.60.
That puts me 100% long SPX.
#ShortStrangles Sold $AVGO Feb 16th 290 call for 3.25.
Sold (2) 250 puts for 5.85 last week… now making this a strangle. Will add another 290 at a higher price to balance the quantity.
The VIX is trading under 9.00 for the sixth time ever.
#SPXcampaign Changed my mind… got enough pullback:
Sold $SPX Jan 16th 2700/2675 put spreads for 4.75.
#SPXcampaign Closed my last short call spread:
$SPX Feb 2nd 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.60. Sold for 1.50 yesterday.
Waiting to roll. Whether we are up or down tomorrow I will sell new put spreads, but I’m going to wait in case we have a pullback. A mild pullback tomorrow will still likely result in an Upside Warning and would be a better place to start long positions than at all-time highs. Then again, we could just continue higher and get long anyway.
#SPXcampaign I’m jumping on this train. It hasn’t failed lately and I don’t see any reason it’s going to fail now. Holding off on BUYING any longs… would like to see another day and maybe some slight pullback.
Stopped $SPX Jan 26th 2740/2765 call spreads for 4.10. Sold for 1.80 last week.
#ReverseRoll Jan 8th 2710/2685 put spreads for 6.20. Slightly ITM.
If you didn't panic buy the 1st open you can always panic buy the 2nd open. pic.twitter.com/5tsqENQ2J2
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 3, 2018
#SPXcampaign
Closed Jan 26th 2740/2765 call spreads for 2.95. Sold last week for 1.70.
Closed Jan 5th 2795/2720 call spreads for 11.80. Sold in a condor Friday for 7.35. Letting the 2675/2650 put spreads expire.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 2nd 2620/2595 put spreads for 1.50.
#SPXcampaign Spent the weekend wondering if I’d be challenged on the put side. Wrong again!
Closed $SPX Jan 3rd 2690 calls for 11.60. Sold in a condor for 6.50 on Thursday. I will be rolling into something, not sure what yet. A new Upside warning may be firing tomorrow.
#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT March 44 call for 1.50. I now have a NUGT ladder that matches my $DUST ladder, all in calls.
$SPX notched a new one… so much for any bearishness in the new year. Another VIX close below 9.85 but will the FOURTH attempt at three in a row be the charm for an Upside Warning? I posted this in the Twitter feed earlier but I’ll now leave it here:
Dow up +25% in ’17 … time to look for a pullback?
Since ’50, up >25% YTD 10 times.
Higher next year 8 times with 6 of those times up double digits.
Avg +12.6% vs avg yearly return of +8.5%.
In other words, don’t turn bearish simply because ’17 was up a lot.
#SPXcampaign A flurry of put spreads closed in the last 20 minutes as $SPX ticked higher. I’m sitting now slightly ITM on a call spread expiring tomorrow (2690/2715). If we don’t open flat or lower, I will have to roll it.
Closed June 3rd 2775/2750 put spreads for .50. Sold in the condor for 6.50 on Thursday.
Closed June 3rd 2670/2645 put spreads for .30. Sold for 3.35
Closed Jan 12th 2580/2555 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 2nd 2750/2775 call spreads for 1.50
Closed on GTC order:
Jan 12th 2575/2550 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $FB Jan 19th 182.5 call for 1.30.
Expires before earnings
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
JOBS report is this Friday, 8:30am ET
#SPXcampaign These were sold on Friday’s plunging close.
Closed $SPX Jan 2nd 2665 puts for .20. Sold on the 2665/2640 put spreads for 1.30.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Jan 2nd 2665/2640 put spreads for 1.30. Could have gotten over 2.00 if I had thought the punch down would be so sharp. Looks like it might have gone ITM in the after market. These expire on Tuesday, OTM, I hope.
#Earnings #LongStock Dumped these shares for 48.85. Tax loss. Sick of watching it do nothing.
Starting fresh for the new year! See y’all then!
#SPXcampaign These are the second two standard weekly trades:
Sold $SPX Jan 26th 2735/2760 call spreads for 1.90.
Sold $SPX Jan 26th 2605/2580 put spreads for 1.50.
Also, closed on GTC order:
Jan 12th 2740/2765 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 last week.
#SPXcampaign Looks like we may end the year with the typical down day. It has been the case on the last day of December 15 out of the last 20 years. I was able to unload some remnants at the open, although missed a fill in my long Dec 29th 2700 calls… about .50-.80 at the open but it dropped to quickly on me, so closed for only .25
Closed $SPX Dec 29th 2715 long calls for .05 (closed the short side of this spread yesterday)
Closed Dec 29th 2665 long puts for .20 (closed the short side of this spread yesterday)
Closed Dec 29th 2700 long calls for .25 (long spread bought for 2.85 last week when I though the Upside Warning was going to fire)
Also:
Sold Jan 5th 2650/2675/2695/2720 #CondorRoll for 7.30. This puts me in two tight condors for next week, as I sold the Jan 3rd 2650/2675/2790/2715 condor yesterday.
I would expect a small rally next week, but ready to roll as always.
#ShortStrangles It is fitting that after weeks of being blown out to the upside that my short PUTS go ITM on the day of expiry. This started as a Sept 8th 38/64.5 #Earnings strangle. I’ve been rolling out the call side ever since, and now finally ending the trade with trouble on the put side.
Even though I’m closing the 90’s at a small loss, the 85 was profitable and 110 calls also closed for .05. This puts me barely in the green on $RH so I’m walking away. I will be back next earnings. Love the challenge.
Closed $RH Dec 29th 85 put for .10. Sold for 1.65 on 12/6.
Closed $RH Dec 29th 90 puts for 2.65. Sold for 1.25, avg price.
#SPXcampaign Since $SPX has been up only 5 times in the last 20 years on the last day of the year, I closed the put side of this #IronButterfly. Letting the call side expire.
Closed $SPX Dec 29th 2690/2665 put spread for 7.40. Sold in an #IBroll for 17.55 last week (with 2690/2715 calls)
Also, trying to shake up this dull market: Sold June 3rd 2650/2675/2690/2715 #IronCondor for 6.50. These expire in just two trading days. My expectation is a slight drop tomorrow and then an up day on Tuesday.
#ShortPuts Taking a pre-earnings long position in $AVGO. Doing this old school… not diving into the #Fuzzy trades yet.
Sold $AVGO Feb 16th 250 puts for 5.85.
Saw this on Fast Money last night and the chart set up looks good, along with NFLX.
#SPXcampaign Missed the top and never got an afternoon bounce. So I sold this when we were flat-on-day.
Sold $SPX Jan 26th 2740/2765 call spreads for 1.85.
Closed on GTC orders:
Dec 27th 2665/2640 put spreads (yesterday)
Jan 5th 2570/2545 put spreads (today)
#ContangoETFs Rolled a NUGT call to avoid falling ITM:
Closed $NUGT Jan 19th 30 call for 2.96. Sold for 1.30 early in Dec
#Rolling Sold NUGT June 40 call for 3.35
Also, sold highest June strike, 47 call for 2.46.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Jan 26th 2600/2575 put spreads for 1.70.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
#VIXIndicator CBOE is showing closing VIX price of 9.90. Upside Warning denied third time in a row!
#SPXcampaign Replacing the Dec 26th spread I closed this morning:
Sold $SPX Jan 3rd 2670/2645 put spreads for 3.40.
#LongStock #CoveredCallCampaign
Bought to close $FB Dec 29th 182.5 call for .15. Sold for 1.60.
100 shares purchased for 126.00
Sold covered calls starting late April. Covered call total income: $1,400. Cost basis on stock 112.00.
#LongPutDiagonals #VXXGame These trades were all put on late August or early September.
$UVXY Jan 2019 long 30 puts, bought for 19.10, now 24.02
$UVXY Jan 2019 30/40 call credit spreads, sold for 1.96, now .70
$VXX Jan 2019 long 20 puts, bought for 1.77 (avg price), now 4.20
$VXX Jan 2019 50/60 call credit spreads, sold for 2.21, now 1.00
(yesterday, closed one call spread for .90)
The “diagonal” portion of these trades is currently dormant, as selling puts in these was a folly in recent months. I have not calculated total losses from the attempt, but it did take a bite out of the above profits. I anticipate scaling out of these trades starting sometime in the summer.
I also bought these cold on Sept 5th… wish I had more:
VXX June 2018 25 put, bought for 1.33, now 4.17
VXX Jan 2019 25 put, bought for 3.46, now 7.18
VXX Jan 2019 15 puts, bought for .61, now 1.83.
Look for the next volatility spike and reverse splits to get long 2020 LEAP puts.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Jan 18th (monthly) 2620/2595 put spreads for 1.60.
In anticipation of an Upside Warning:
Bought to open $SPX Dec 29th 2700/2725 LONG call spreads for 2.50.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Dec 26th 2680/2655 put spreads for 2.50. Sold for 5.65 on Wednesday. Since this expires on the next trading day, I’m taking off risk since it’s close to ATM. Don’t want to get slammed with this if we open with a pullback on Tuesday.
#SPXcampaign Stepping cautiously, once again, into short call spreads. Feels like we may end the year more in consolidation than rally.
Sold $SPX Jan 12th 2740/2765 call spreads for 1.50
Sold $SPX Jan 18th (monthly) 2750/2775 call spreads for 1.60.
Also, closed on GTC order:
SPX Dec 26th 2645/2620 put spreads for .25. Sold for 4.70.
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Dec 22nd 2660/2635 put spreads for .40. Sold for 8.00 last week.
#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT Jan 19th 30 call for 1.30
Sold $NUGT June 40 call
These are the same call strikes I’m already holding in $DUST, so they are margin free.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 26th 2680/2655 put spreads for 5.65.
#SPXcampaign Should have gone with my instincts and exited all of this at the open. But man, that drop was fast. Now I most likely exited all of these near the bottom.
Closed $SPX Dec 20th 2690/2665 put spreads for 12.55. Sold for 3.90 on Monday.
Sold $SPX Jan 12th 2750/2775 LONG call spreads for .60. Bought for .45 last week. Sold half of this. Keeping the other half to either profit higher or expire worthless.
Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2700/2725 LONG call spreads for .75. Bought yesterday for 1.50.
What a crappy way to start the day.
#TradeSchool I’m sitting on the short $SPX Dec 20th 2690/2665 put spread expiring today. Nice open followed by steep dive. Spread went from around 3.00 at open to over 9.00. That’s the peril you face sitting on ATM spreads expiring same day. So I was facing a loss, watching the charts. If it wasn’t for the TICKs, I probably would have exited at the lows. While the SPX consolidated flat-on-day, it looked like it wanted to break lower. But the TICKs, which I always have on my screens right next to SPX, showed a bottoming and then steady trend higher. So I felt comfortable waiting for the TICK trend to break before exiting, but it didn’t break and the SPX eventually lifted. Not sure how high we’ll get, but at least I didn’t panic exit at lows.
#VXXGame Yesterday, closed $SVXY March 125 call for 17.25. Sold for 9.70 on Nov 21st.
Yesterday, sold Feb 90 put for 3.17.
This morning, sold June 150 call for 14.95
#VIXIndicator, like last week, we got two consecutive closes below the 78.6% line, but then are denied the third. So no Upside Warning. Maybe this market wants to top out.
#SPXcampaign Picked up a quickie long play for a potential pop tomorrow due to tax bill. Mind you, I think we could see a “sell the news” dump, but I lean toward a rally thanks to the holidays.
Bought $SPX Dec 22nd 2700/2720 call spreads for 1.50.
BREAKING: GOP tax bill passes the House; now moves to Senate for approval. https://t.co/9YCWBH5nvq pic.twitter.com/Ow51YV6SjK
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 19, 2017
#Earnings #LongStock Sold to close final batch of $STMP stock for 187.15.
This closes the trade started on Nov 2nd when I sold 200/180 put spreads for 4.15, x2 for max profit of 827.90, max loss of 3,172.10. Stock tanked and I rolled the spreads, got assigned early, and I’m finally out with ending profit of $327.56
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Jan 18th (monthly) 2610/2585 put spreads for 1.60.
#SPXcampaign
Closed $SPX Jan 12th 2730/2755 call spreads for 3.50. Foolishly sold on Friday for 1.50.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open Dec 20th 2690/2665 put spreads for 3.90
EDIT: was not filled on Jan 18th (monthly) 2600/2575 put spreads for 1.45
#VXXGame Starting a new experiment today. With $UVXY at all-time lows again, I bought some far OTM calls for cheap. This should lessen the margin requirement to sell lower strike calls on the next vol spike. Since I have portfolio margin these positions should help me overall with carrying short volatility trades. I will add some more positions in the coming days/weeks if we continue to barrel higher.
Bought (10) March 91 calls for .15 each.
Bought (1) Jan 2019 75 call for 1.70.
Highest available strikes on each.
#ContangoETFs Sold $NUGT Jan 2019 50 call for 4.10. This offsets the $DUST 50 call I sold for the same price a couple weeks ago. I’m building a NUGT ladder to match the one I have in DUST… short calls only on both.
#Earnings #LongStock Sold half of my remaining shares of $STMP for 180.85. Cost basis is 182.35. I’ll hold my remaining 100 for a higher exit, so I can at least breakeven on this one.
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order:
$SPX Jan 5th 2525/2500 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45.
Looks like I’ll be stopping my only short call spread: the Jan 12th 2730/2755 sold last week. Not sure when I can sell those safely again. We already hit my target for the 29th: 2690. That’s where I have an #IronButterfly centered. Reached the target only one day after selling it.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
This is a VERY important article to read for any one doing #VXXGame trades. I first learned the game from @optioniceman in December 2012 and made great profits for two years. However, you do suffer through pain and possible margin calls on big volatility events. After white-knuckling October 2014, I scaled back and participate on a much lower scale now. My profits have been smaller as a result, as the trade has remained stronger than ever since that event.
Although I have long understood the basics of this article, I still learned some new perspective by reading this today. Check it out. Ask questions, start a discussion.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131144-next-big-short-potential-cause-market-decline?auth_param=bf3bv:1d386u2:98769c7c2dd6077dfe86fe528712f8a4&uprof=37
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 27th 2665/2640 put spreads for 4.60, as a #ReverseRoll from Dec 26th calls stopped earlier.
Closed Dec 22nd 2670/2695 call spreads for 11.60. Sold yesterday for 5.55.
#IBroll to Dec 29th 2665/2690/2690/2715 #IronButterfly. Shooting for ending the year at or near 2690, but either way I can roll as necessary.
No Expirations.
Is it finally getting off its ass?
#SPXcampaign As per usual, whenever I’m forced to hedge against a big drop I end up getting slammed on the call side.
Stopped $SPX Sept 26th 2695/2720 call spreads for 4.45. Sold yesterday in the 2620/2645/2695/2720 #CondorRoll for 6.65. Fortunately the put side has made more than the calls lost today (put deltas were much higher than the calls when I sold it).
Haven’t decided how I’m rolling yet. Also have a call spread I sold yesterday, Dec 22nd 2670/2695 for 5.55, now at 10.65. Looking to close this one as well.
#SPXcampaign Closed my long call spread that expires today.
First, I closed the short 2685 calls for .10. These can cause problems closing a spread that’s expiring on the same day. If they are too far OTM they won’t carry a bid in the afternoon, so I cleared them away so I could deal only with long 2665 calls.
Closed $SPX Dec 15th 2665 calls for 3.50 and 3.70. Bought the spread for 3.00.
Then, the SPX took off, so I closed the rest at 7.70. What a difference 10 minutes makes!
Also:
Sold $SPX Jan 12th 2730/2755 call spreads for 1.50. Had not sold any calls this week, anticipating the Upside Warning. But since it hasn’t come I’m dipping my toe back into call credit spreads.
Closed on GTC order:
Dec 29th 2540/2515 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 in last week of Nov
#SPXcampaign So my mental stop on this spread was 2655. When we hit that I put in a low bid to close and was set to watch for a bounce. Then if we start moving higher, I keep lowering the bid to hopefully exit on a bounce. So we spent about 25 minutes near the lows, and my bid was 7.20. I stepped into the kitchen and it filled on the first minor pop. Now it’s trading for 6.50 on what may be the bounce. It’s the peril of riding ATM spreads so close to expiration.
Closed $SPX Dec 15th 2660/2635 put spreads for 7.20. Sold for 3.70.
#CondorRoll Sold Dec 26th 2620/2645/2695/2720 condors for 6.65
#Markets Marco Rubio is a reported “no” on the current plan. Mike Lee is undecided. If that’s what’s driving us down today, I say BTFD.
#SPXcampaign I’m still believing we get a combination Santa-Claus/Tax-reform rally, as Republicans look closer than ever to meeting their Christmas deadline. However, the failure on the upside warning firing has definitely come through, as the rally was immediately halted and now we are wavering. As I cleared all call spreads and am short only put spreads, my risk is too lopsided, so I had to #ReverseRoll at least one of them.
Closed $SPX Dec 18th 2660/2635 put spreads for 5.50. Sold yesterday for 3.65.
Sold $SPX Dec 22nd 2670/2695 call spreads for 5.55.
My bet is on a bounce into tomorrow’s quadruple witching expiration and then higher next week. But this hedges me some if we go lower instead.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/fcc-reverses-open-internet-order-governing-net-neutrality.html
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order:
$SPX Dec 18th 2630/2605 put spreads for .40. Sold for 8.00 last week.
#SPXcampaign I sold one more put spread, but now not liking how we closed. Hoping for another push UP this week and a chance to start adding call spreads and even myself out. We may be topping out, but if they do manage to pass tax bill we could see another push up.
Sold $SPX Dec 18th 2660/2635 put spreads for 3.65.
#VIXIndicator Despite hitting a new all-time high today, the VIX spiked at day’s end, ending on the highs. This means no Upside Warning yet. We’ll need three more consecutive days below 9.85. Unless we see a market drop tomorrow, signs are still bullish for year end.
#SPXcampaign Closed my last two remaining call credit spreads:
Closed $SPX Dec 20th 2590/2615 call spreads for 24.35. Sold ITM for 20.45. Waiting to replace when upside move tires out.
Closed SPX Dec 29th 2710/2735 call spreads for 2.25. Sold for 1.40 on Dec 1st.
Waiting to roll both tomorrow. Depending on how CBOE calls the close on VIX, we may or may not have an Upside Warning.
#ShortStrangles Added to the short side of my $RH strangle, sold Dec 29th 90 puts for 1.20 and 1.30.
#VXXGame Yesterday, Bought to close Dec 15th VXX 30 call for .55. Sold for 6.50 avg price in October.
Today, Bought to close $SVXY March 122 call for 16.20. Sold in a strangle for 19.35 on 10/27
Rolled to:
Sold SVXY June 85 put for 8.95
Sold SVXY June 160 call for 8.90
#SPXcampaign Stopped: $SPX Dec 15th 2680/2705 for 3.55. Sold in a #CondorRoll last week.
#ReverseRoll Sold Dec 15th 2660/2635 put spreads for 3.80.
Also, closed on GTC order:
Dec 15th 2610/2585 put spreads for .20. Sold for 3.40.
We’re off and running… Upside Warning going into effect at the close, provided VIX closes below 9.85
