#SPXcampaign After a fairly dull afternoon I entered a Feb 2nd put spread after the bell. Couldn’t decide whether to buy or sell it. Then I decided I would sell it, so entered a sell price, and… I bought it. I forgot that I had “BUY” selected. I left it because I’m still net long on SPX so this’ll be a nice double or triple if we gap down again tomorrow.
Bought $SPX Feb 2nd 2780/2755 put spreads for 2.00
#SPXcampaign As we meander sideways we are mostly making higher highs and higher lows. Hard to tell whether downside is already finished. Since delta on this spread is high, took 1.25 profit and closed it.
Closed $SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 12.70. Sold right after the open for 13.95.
#Earnings Sold to Open $EA Feb 2nd 110/130 strangles for 1.27. Leaning on bullish side due to historical performance and trend. Biggest UP move: 13.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.5%, Average move: +/- 5.4%. Bias: +2.35%. My strikes are -7.0% and +9.9% OTM.
#SPXcampaign On the bounce, closed $SPX Feb 23rd 2735/2710 put spreads for 2.80. Sold last Wednesday for 1.60.
If we get another nice dip here, I will be able to sell more rolls.
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Sold $SPX March 2nd 2680/2655 put spreads for 2.05, 1.5x position size, as a roll from stopped Feb 23rd spread.
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Feb 16th 16 call for 1.05
Closed $VXX Feb 16th 25 put for .10. Sold for 1.15.
Stopped $VXX Feb 2nd 26 call for 5.35. Sold for 1.35 on 1/23. Will roll to another ITM call at some point.
#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX Feb 23rd 2750/2725 for 2.95. Sold yesterday for 1.70. Will roll later when we are down more.
Sold SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 13.95. Maybe only a day trade.
#SPXcampaign The question is, when do we get the bounce? I closed my most endangered put spread yesterday. Only one other was hitting its stop point before the open, so I will roll it down. I may also sell an ITM call spread as a one or two day trade, and perhaps some OTM if I can find good ones.
For the bounce, I want to sell ITM or ATM put spreads. If I miss timing I can grit my teeth through lower prices and wait for the bounce, and roll if necessary. I will likely wait to BUY call spreads until bounce seems clear, and then more with a new Upside Warning.
Bounce could be today or tomorrow, unless we are in for something bigger. With the biggest earnings announcements this week and next, I think it would be tough to go full-on correction now.
#VIXIndicator Looks like the official $VIX close is 13.84 (also high of the day), which is over 50% higher than the Dec 20th low of 8.90. This activates a Downside Warning, leading to a likelihood of lower prices in the coming days or weeks. Downside Warnings can sometimes be false flags, but most often the are followed by subsequent dips or corrections, either immediately or in the coming days. It also means any bounce this week is more likely to be followed by a drop next week.
Since I recently revised this trigger to be based on closing VIX prices rather than intraday, I am still compiling data for the last 18 years. I may be able to post some more details today, but feel free to ask any questions if you have them.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 2nd 2830/2805 put spreads for 4.60. Sold for 6.75 on 1/23.
The day is not over yet, and even a small bounce will avert a downside warning. But clearing most immediate and highest-striked spread.
#VIXIndicator A close above 13.35 would trigger one. Looking to close some put spreads to take some risk off.
#Earnings #CoveredCallCampaign Since I already sold some $AAPL puts last week (should have waited), today I’ll get a head start for $FB on today’s weakness…
Sold $FB Feb 2nd 175 put for 1.60.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2750/2725 put spreads for 1.70.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 23rd 2935/2960 call spreads for 2.75. Sold Friday for 1.60. I hope I can wait for extended highs like Friday afternoon in my next attempt to sell call spreads.
#Earnings #CallButterfly Beautiful trend and decent fundamental. Playing for the trend to continue and to end the week near 180.
Bought to open $MCD Feb 2nd 177.5/180/182.5 call butterflys for .40. Max risk: .40. Max gain: 2.10. Breakevens: 177.90 and 182.10.
Biggest UP move: 9.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.7%, Average move: +/- 3.2%. Upside bias: +1.3%
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 2nd 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.55. Staying long and strong.
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JOBS report is Friday at 8:30am ET.
Expiring: $ISRG Jan 26th 410/490 #ShortStrangles, sold yesterday for 3.00.
Fourth week of the year, fourth week higher for $SPX. Run with the bulls.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 16th 2920/2945 call spreads for 2.90. Sold this morning of 1.80.
Never fails! Just can’t do anything short in this market. So I lost 1.10 on this one while making about 10.00 on all my eroding put spreads, plus one call spread bought Wednesday for 4.00 and now at 7.25. Today’s action has me doubting what I wrote earlier… it feels more like we need to still grind higher, so I’m going to hold on for another notch up.
#SPXcampaign Preparing again for a possible pullback. VIX has not been dropping much and we’re getting more signs of consolidation. I remain net long but want to be prepared. So many indicators telling us this thing needs a rest.
Sold $SPX Feb 16th (Friday PM) 2920/2945 call spreads for 1.80.
Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2935/2960 call spreads for 1.60.
Also, closed on GTC order:
Feb 9th 2660/2635 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Jan 10th.
#Earnings Sold $NFLX Feb 2nd 260 put for 2.55. Makes up for loss on call side from earnings trade. Expires next Friday.
Closed $KMB Jan 26th 120 calls for 1.80. Closed the 111 puts for .05 on Tuesday.
Sold the strangles for 1.05 on Monday.
I may look at another strangle to make back the loss, since premium look decent.
#ShortStrangles Closed $AVGO Feb 16th 250/290 strangles for 7.40. Sold legs separately for a total of 9.35, so profit of 1.95. Not rolling, I’ll just take profit and wait for earnings in late Feb.
#Earnings Sold $ISRG Jan 26th 410/490 strangles for 3.00. Biggest UP move: 8.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.6%, Average move: 4.7%. My strikes are about 8.9% OTM
#SPXcampaign After we tested going negative this morning, $CAT bounced off its rollercoaster of a morning and helped nudge the markets higher. $NFLX is going parabolic again, too. My $KMB calls are now underwater; could have closed for a nice profit on Wednesday. So I think we go higher, driven now by earnings.
Closed $SPX Feb 9th 2875/2900 call spreads for 6.00. Sold for 4.50 yesterday. That was my only short hedge on SPX. I also went long with a risk/reversal that’s making me a whole lot more than this 1.50 loss.
Nice bounce of 250 area so far. I hold #ShortStrangles Feb 16th 250/290
#Earnings #ShortPuts Added another $AAPL Feb 2nd 175 put for 5.20. The bet is we raise into and after earnings. But if not, I’m okay rolling or taking some stock at 170 cost basis.
#Earnings Closed $FFIV Jan 26th 130/155 strangles for .16. Sold yesterday for 1.60.
#Earnings Closed $LRCX Jan 26th 200 puts for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.20.
#Earnings $FFIV strangles and $LRCX bullish trades look good so far.
#SPXcampaign I did not catch the bottom but kind of chased as the bounce became clear:
Sold $SPX Feb 16th (Friday PM) 2800/2775 put spreads for 5.05.
Bought SPX Feb 2nd 2865/2885 call spreads for 4.00.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 9th 2875/2900 call spreads for 4.50. Throwing one out there in case this weakness holds up. Also looking to sell an aggressive put spread. I won’t be looking to roll any put spreads unless VIX moves over 12.50 or SPX below 2825.
#VXXgame Closed this one with nice profit, giving a nice chunk of buying power back so I can sell something better.
Closed $SVXY Feb 16th 80 put for .61. Sold for 7.35 in a strangle on Nov 15th
#Earnings Sold $LRCX Jan 26th 200 puts for 1.20 (now going for more).
Biggest UP move: 8.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.8%, Average move: 2.9%. This trade was 5.2% OTM at the time of the fill (stock price was 211.00).
This has only been making small moves down and bigger moves up on earnings. The last time it moved DOWN more than 3% was Oct 2011.
#Earnings #ShortPuts Taking advantage of weakness in $AAPL to place an earnings trade early. Release is next Thursday.
Sold AAPL Feb 2nd 175 put for 4.05.
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Feb 9th 2650/2625 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Jan 8th.
#SPXcampaign I have tried since Monday to sell my normal 5-week put spread, but keep missing a fill on the lows, only to see us ratchet higher. Finally just forced a fill. I don’t blame the market. Who wants to be on the other side of being long this market?
Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2735/2710 put spreads for 1.60.
#Earnings Sold $FFIV Jan 26th 130/155 strangles for 1.60.
Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.0% , Average move: 6.0%.
Expected move: 8.90
My strikes are +/- 8.8% OTM
#ContangoETFs #VXXGame Following @optioniceman in spirit:
Sold $NUGT Jan 2019 50 call for 5.95, adding to my position.
Sold $SVXY Feb 16th 120/100 put spread for 2.15. Margin cost to sell naked is too steep.
#VXXGame #LongPutDiagonals #SyntheticShortStock
Sold $VXX Feb 2nd 26 call for 1.35.
With VXX perpetually headed to zero, I am selling short-term puts AND calls against my Jan 2019 long 25 puts.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 2nd 2830/2805 put spreads for 6.75.
#SPXcampaign Flubbed this one up… too distracted by earnings trades to get long at the bottom this morning, now I’m chasing.
Closed $SPX Feb 23rd 2900/2925 call spreads for 3.90. Sold for 1.60 yesterday. I have no more call spreads.
I want to sell put spreads and buy call spreads, but hate doing it at all-time-highs.
#Earnings Closed last $NFLX Jan 26th 250 call for 5.65.
Sold Feb 16th 240 put for 3.30. I will sell a few more puts over the next week or two.
Closed these to free up margin:
Jan 26th 200 put for .02
Jan 26th 205 put for .03
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Closed $FB Jan 26th 180 put for .12. Sold on last week’s dip for 3.55. After getting crushed on my last covered call, I made up most of the loss by selling this put on the news-driven drop. Now I will wait until earnings on the 31st and sell strangles.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Closed one of my $NFLX Jan 26th 250 calls for 5.05. Letting the other one ride. Sold strangles yesterday for about 3.00.
Closed $SPX Jan 26th 2790/2765 put spreads for 1.20. Sold for 8.20 last Tuesday.
Closed on GTC order: Feb 2nd 2660/2635 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Jan 5th.
Stopped Feb 15th 2890/2915 put spreads for 3.05, sold for 1.50 last Wednesday. Will look to roll tomorrow
#Earnings Added a Jan 26th 205 put for 1.19 before the bell. Was waiting for a bit more pullback but it went the wrong way. So I have two strangles…
200/250
205/250
#SPXcampaign Well, it already looks like the possibility for consolidation is a bust. It seems the higher we go with little rest and no correction means the eventual reckoning will be all the more devastating. But until it happens, we ride the rocket ship to the sky.
Closed $SPX Feb 9th 2875/2900 call spreads for 2.75. Sold on Friday for 1.55.
#ReverseRoll Selling the Feb 7th 2790/2765 put spreads. Asking 3.90, which I will get with any slight pullback. If not, I’ll sell it for less.
Unfortunately I have no long call spreads going. Since the Upside Warning is not in effect, it’s tougher to have firm conviction of follow through, so I don’t want to buy at fresh highs.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Jan 26th 2820/2845 call spreads for 9.20. Sold last Wednesday for 4.25. My plan was to get out around 8.00, but this morning’s price action blew right past that. I feel it’s more likely I’m closing at a short term top, but can’t risk it. With recent action, we could end today at 2830 easily. Good news is I sold the 2790/2765 put spreads for 8.20 and they’re currently trading at 2.00.
#Earnings Sold $NFLX Jan 26th 250 calls for 1.35 and 1.50. Coupled with a 200 put sold on Friday for 1.78. I’ll add another put sometime today for a total of 2 #ShortStrangles.
NFLX 5-day moves over last 12 quarters: Biggest UP move: 27.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -13.1%, Average move: 12.6%. My strikes are 11.1% OTM.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2900/2925 call spreads for 1.60. Parabolic move might be continuing, which means I’ll be having to stop-out of these calls and start getting ridiculously long again. Anyone else think we’ll hit 2900 before March? Hard to believe but can’t rule it out.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Sold $KMB 111/120 strangles for 1.05. Biggest UP move: 5.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.2%, Average move: 2.7%. These strikes are 3.9% OTM
The Daily Shot: How did the previous government shutdowns impact the stock market? https://t.co/G78Isc67PO pic.twitter.com/tfMY0oqOPt
— WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) January 22, 2018
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#SPXcampaign
Sold $SPX Feb 16th 2710/2685 put spreads for 1.55.
#Earnings
Closed $AA Jan 19th 53.5 puts for .45, sold in strangle for 1.00 on Wednesday.
Closed $STZ Jan 19th 220 put for 1.60, sold for 2.35 on 1/4.
#OptionsExpiration #ContangoETFs
$DUST 30 call, sold for 1.50 on Nov 30th
$AA 59 calls, sold in strangle for 1.00 on Wednesday.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Jan 22nd 2780/2755 put spreads for .60. Sold for 2.10 as a roll on Wednesday.
#Earnings
BTC $STZ Jan 19th 220 call for 1.65. Sold for 2.35 on Jan 4th. Still got another one to buy back before the close
BTC $AA Jan 19th 53.5 puts for .60. Sold as 53.5/59 strangles for 1.00 on Wednesday. Still holding more to cover before the close.
Sold $NFLX Jan 26th 200 put for 1.78. They announce Monday after the close so I’m starting my position now in case it rallies higher before the report.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 9th 2875/2900 call spreads for 1.55. Missed the fill at highs and got caught in the plunge. I sold no call spreads in this expiry last week because we were in an Upside Warning.
…just a theta decay day for me. If we get government shutdown, will it be a BTFD or something bigger? If they avert it, will another blistering rally commence?
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Jan 24th 2775/2750 put spreads for 3.10. Sold yesterday for 6.70.
I had three put spreads close to ATM so I took off this one with a decent profit. If we get a pullback I want to be selling new spreads, not scrambling to manage threatened ones.
#SPXcampaign #Rolling #CondorRoll Already rolling the call spread I sold this morning.
Closed $SPX Feb 15th 2870/2895 call spreads for 3.25. Sold this morning for 1.80.
Sold Feb 15th 2890/2915 call spreads for 1.50.
Sold Jan 22nd 2780/2755 put spreads for 2.10.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Close $SPX Jan 19th 2765/2785 call spreads for 18.10. Bought for 3.20 on Jan 10th.
Ripping up again. The 2 call spreads I sold earlier have each gone against me by 50% already. I’ll hold overnight but will have to consider rolling if the rally continues tomorrow.
#VXXGame #LongPutDiagonals #SyntheticShortStock
Sold $VXX Feb 16th 25 put for 1.15. Just trying this out ahead of some possible consolidation. I will NOT let this go ITM, but I would like to chip away at some of the loss I took in selling puts months ago. I forgot to sell some short term calls yesterday, which I had been planning on a spike.
#Earnings #shortstrangles
Sold $AA Jan 19th 53.5/59 strangles for 1.00. Biggest UP move: 9.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.4%, Average move: 4.8%. Expected move is 2.98. So this strangle is a bit aggressive, being inside its expected and historical moves. But I also noted that many of the post-earnings moves could be faded on the first day, and that the moves have been smaller in recent quarters. In any case, totally manageable at the stock price of 56.20.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Jan 26th 2820/2845 call spreads for 4.25. Provided we’re not on another rocket ship higher, this should be closable within a couple days.
What’s the best TOS ticker to follow?
#SPXcampaign Back in the call game after the Upside Warning was canceled.
Sold $SPX Feb 15th (monthlys) 2870/2895 call spreads for 1.80.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Jan 24th 2775/2750 puts for 6.70. If this one looks to be in trouble tomorrow (one week from expiration), I will roll it.
Cancelation of the upside warning does not necessarily mean that the bull run is finished. But it may mean a slowing of the momentum. I will look to try some call spread sales on the next up day.
#VIXIndicator The VIX just exceeded 25% above the 2-day closing low, so that cancels the Upside Warning. Under my revised rules, we do not get a downside warning unless we close above 12.35.
In recent months these spikes intraday have been bought. I have no reason to feel this would be different, provided we get the normal afternoon bounce. It was a beautiful morning as I had 3 put spreads close for pennies. If we find a low and bounce, I will be looking for more positions to get long the market.
#VXXGame Followed @optioniceman and sold $UVXY March 16th 15 calls for 1.15.
I was looking to follow @fuzzballl‘s $SVXY 110 Feb puts, but broker wanted 11K in margin to sell a 3-dollar put. That’s the problem with being long so many $VXX puts on portfolio margin…. broker doesn’t want me to get short more volatility. But UVXY was more reasonable, only charging 1.5K for each 1.15 option.
#SPXcampaign I sold a normal 5-week spread and an aggressive 10-dayer.
Sold $SPX Feb 15th 2675/2650 put spreads for 1.50.
Sold $SPX Jan 26th 2790/2765 put spreads for 8.20.
#SPXcampaign
Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX Feb 2nd 2620/2595 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Jan 3rd.
$SPX Jan 22nd 2740/2715 put spreads for .40. Sold for 7.50 last Wednesday.
Waiting for at least a morning minor pullback to add more… will we ever go down again?
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order in pre-market: $SPX 2740/2715 put spreads for .40. Sold for 6.85.
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#SyntheticShortStock #LongPutDiagonals
Took the cue from @fuzzballl and closed one of these (I originally had 2). Can’t make a whole lot more on this since we’re getting closer to zero on the stock.
Closed $UVXY Jan 2019 positions:
Long 30 put, Short 30 call, Long 40 call for 23.91.
Bought for 17.10 on Aug 17th.
That’s a $6.81 profit, BUT I also lost $818 total in the attempt to sell short-term puts. Since I had 2 positions, that’s a $409 loss for each, so profit on this one is $272.
As for the other one, I previously closed the call spread for 1.60 (on Dec 20th), and I put in an order to close the remaining long put for 24.50, which price is already near. That would mean a $171 profit on that half.
I am keeping my $VXX version of this open, since the stock is still at 25.75 so my long 20 puts still have a lot to gain. I have closed a third of my short call spreads, and I added more long puts “naked” anyway, so I’m long 18 puts, currently at 4.68, average purchase 1.77. I lost a bigger bundle on the sale of short-term puts on VXX, but my ending profit on the long puts will make up for it and them some.
I will look to do this again when they launch $VXXB with the 2020 LEAPs. But that time, I will skip the #Fuzzy hedging and just go with the synthetic short.
