#OptionsExpiration #SPXcampaign #Earnings #ShortPuts #IronButterfly #ContangoETFs
— Expired —
DUST 35 puts
REGN 390 put
SPX 2150/2125 put spreads (sold for 2.70 on Nov 15th)
SPX 2175/2150 put spread (sold for 14.00 on Oct 13th)
— Expired with max loss —
DE 90/92.5/95 iron butterfly
#Earnings #ShortPuts #Rolling Was trying to make this roll with a $1 credit but turkey-induced droopiness led to the reverse, a 1.10 loss. Oh well… not much in the scheme of inverse strangles…
BTC REGN Nov 25th 420 put for 22.00
STO REGN Dec 9th 415 put for 20.90
#SPXcampaign We are up only .25% on the day, and pushing higher. I don’t want my short 2210’s to fly up in price. So…
Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2210 calls for .85. Sold as the 2210/2235 call spreads for 1.50 on Oct 28th.
To offset the loss, I am closing my long Dec 5th call spread I bought for 1.90 on Monday. Closed some for 2.95, watching the rest for the next push up. I would keep this longer, but since it expires a week from Monday and is still fairly far OTM, I’m exiting now as a pullback could be coming next week.
Sold to close $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 LONG call spreads for 2.95.
I remain bullish into Xmas, but believe a pullback could be in the cards before another push higher. After Xmas, I will be on guard for January volatility, since we have seen that happen in the last THREE Januarys (2014,2015,2016).
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2275/2300 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2209.
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll #Rolling Since I believe risk is still to upside, I am rolling this one early. My stop on this was 2205 (20 points OTM); we came close yesterday and I believe we will break that level later today or Friday.
STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 2225/2250 for 4.60. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.15 on Nov 3rd.
#CondorRoll: Sold to Open Dec 15th 2100/2125/2245/2270 condors for 5.10 (same position size).
#Earnings Record highs for DE… and a dud for the ATM #IronButterfly. I don’t see a pullback t0 93 in the cards by Friday.
I am ceasing the categorization of everyone’s posts and encouraging the use of hashtags. For the last year I have been going into my Admin screen to categorize everyone’s posts by strategy, such as #SPXcampaign or #VXXGame. But that’s simply too exhaustive now that more Contributors are signing up.
So, to help us in our search efforts and help newbies review trades under different categories, please try to use Hashtags in your posts. For Contributors, you will see common examples of hashtags in the window where you write your new post. In the right-hand column of the site, all members can see the “Most Used Hashtags” window for reference as well. Everyone can also use hashtags in the comments underneath posts.
So before posting, #Hashtag-It!
#Earnings #IronButterfly Sold to Open $DE Nov 25th 90/92.5/95 iron butterfly for 1.97. Max risk .53.
I don’t see a decent trade in GME, so unless anyone’s got a good idea I’ll be skipping it.
#ContangoETFs BTC $DUST Nov 25th 70 call for .05. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 11th
STO DUST Dec 9th 60 call for 3.50.
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll
Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 2220/2245 call spreads for 3.50.
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2150/2125 put spreads for 2.65, 1.5x position size.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2085/2060 for 1.40, with SPX at 2202. Not waiting for a pullback because I’m not expecting one this week.
AN UPSIDE WARNING FIRED ON MONDAY after the VIX closed below the 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days. This means a very high likelihood of a continued rally in the days and weeks to come.
We also established a new high in the SPX, 2198.70, and have set a new post-correction low in the VIX, 12.16.
Tuesday’s levels that would reverse course and end the Upside Warning are 15.53 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 18.24 (50% above Nov 21 low). #VIXIndicator
#Earnings $PANW has had an out-sized move down on earnings. Bought 100 shares at 140.85. Looking to unload with a move back above 150.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2200/2220 call spreads for 3.20. Sold for 4.00 on Nov 9th.
Sold to open SPX Nov 30th 2170/2145 put spreads for 2.50, 1.5x position size (#ReverseRoll)
The above stopped spread expires Wednesday but we could be up to 2210 by then. Reverse rolled back into some puts, one week further out. Also, bought some LONG call spreads, targeting a double or triple:
Bought to open $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 call spreads for 1.90.
#VXXGame Good idea, @fuzzballl
BTC UVXY Dec 16th 40 call for .04. Sold for 1.56 on Nov 3rd
BTC UVXY March 60 call for .38. Sold for 2.75 on Nov 3rd
SPX, new all-time high
#SPXcampaign Since signs are bullish with likely Upside Warning, sold the following ATM put spread as a roll from a stopped call spread from last week:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2190/2165 put spreads for 8.25, with SPX at 2190.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2260/2285 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2192.
#VIXIndicator If the VIX closes below 13.59 tonight, an Upside Warning is in effect. Here I am reposting some data I posted on July 14th.:
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
#SPXcampaign Long overdue on the chart update. I have rolled my way mostly out of the election week whipsaw and have been keeping barely ahead of the rally.
#VIXIndicator If we have another close below 13.59 on Monday, it will trigger an upside warning. If it happens, watch for new all-time highs as we surge higher.
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #ContangoETFs #ShortStrangles #ShortPuts #ShortCalls #CoveredCalls #VXXGame
— Expiring —
BBY 38 and 38.5 puts
DUST 55 call
DUST 35 puts
LOW 65/72 strangles
RGLD 82.5 covered call
UVXY 45 call
— Assignment —
DUST 50 call, taking short stock (only because I forgot to roll)
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
BTC $REGN Nov 18th 400 put for 2.50
STO $REGN Nov 25th 390 put for 3.80
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Oct 26th.
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Dec 15th 2065/2040 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2186.
#ContangoETFs BTC DUST Nov 18th 60 call for .25. Sold for 3.50 on Oct 4th. Not risking another big jump tomorrow.
#ContangoETFs Replacing some DUST calls I had to stop out of on Monday. Highest strikes:
STO DUST Dec 16th 90 calls for 1.30 (thanks @Ramie77)
STO DUST Jan 20th 80 call for 5.00
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 2255/2280 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2182.
Back on October 13th I suggested an in-the-money put spread that some of you followed (original post here: https://optionsbistro.wordpress.com/2016/10/13/overcoming-fear/).
The trade was the Nov 25th 2175/2150 put spread for 14.00, when SPX was at 2123. Since that day, SPX got to a low of 2083 and a high of 2184 (today). So it is not ITM at the moment. This makes the decision on whether to roll a bit tough. With the current bullish trend, it is likely to expire worthless. But if we breakdown and go below 2175 again, the value of the spread will shoot up quickly against you.
So today you have three options:
1. Close the trade and take a nice profit.
2. Roll the trade into the following week for even or slight credit. You will be able to move your strikes 10 points lower, to the Dec 2nd 2165/2140 spread. This is basically what we’d be doing if we were still ITM (although not as easily). You can also choose to roll it to a further week at lower strikes.
3. Stick with the trade for more upside and a cheaper exit next week, or expire worthless.
I will probably be taking option 3, but watching closely through tomorrow. If this breakout fails, I will probably be rolling it before the weekend.
Questions welcome, and let us know what you do with the trade! #SPXcampaign #FearTrade #ITMrolling
#SPXcampaign
Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2085/2060 put spreads for .10. Sold for 3.55 on Election Day.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 1975/1950 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Nov 9th.
#Earnings Sold to Open $BBY Nov 18th 38 puts for .84. Bullish trade. BBY was up 20% on last earnings; chart looks bullish. Last three years’ moves:
Aug. 23, 2016 BO 19.60%
May 24, 2016 BO -7.42%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 2.44%
Nov. 19, 2015 BO -2.10%
Aug. 25, 2015 BO 12.57%
May 21, 2015 BO 3.93%
March 3, 2015 BO 1.42%
Nov. 20, 2014 BO 6.97%
Aug. 26, 2014 BO -6.84%
May 22, 2014 BO 3.43%
Feb. 27, 2014 BO -0.96%
Nov. 19, 2013 BO -10.97%
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 2100/2075 put spreads for 1.45. This is another roll for the Nov 17th call spreads I had to close yesterday.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 2035/2010 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2175.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2180/2205 call spreads for 7.80. Sold for 9.50 on Nov 9th as a roll. Profit in this one, but because it was a roll I will need to roll it again. I will look to do so later today.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 9th 1875/1850 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.10 on Nov 3rd.
#VIXIndicator #Market If we close today at current VIX levels the Downside Warning will be canceled and we could be on our way to new highs. We had a spike up like this last Thursday too, but then it failed… two hours left…
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 1925/1900 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 2.10 on Oct 28th.
#Earnings #ShortStrangles STO $REGN Nov 25th 420 put for 5.00. Selling against my woefully ITM short call.
#Earnings STO $LOW Nov 18th 65/72 strangle for 1.03. Biggest UP move: 6.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.2%, Average move: 3.1%. These strikes are each 5.1% OTM.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 2025/2000 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.05 on Election Day.
Time for tech to bounce?
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 1945/1920 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Nov 1st.
#ContangoETFs Followed @optioniceman‘s idea…
STO DUST Nov 18th 35 puts for .25
STO DUST Nov 25th 35 puts for .60
#Earnings Sold to Close $DAL stock for 47.00. Originally assigned at 47.00 back in April. The remnant of a larger earnings trade that sat like a lump in my account as DAL dipped as low as 32.60. In the end, the trade wound up with a $64 profit. Too long for too little!
#ContangoETFs Got too heavy in short calls on DUST, and now with the relentless plunge of Gold I cannot continue to roll at this time. I am closing a few ITM or ATM calls with losses this morning. I will have to work to build back the losses at a later date when my margin issues relax.
I’m getting hit simultaneously with positins in FB and NFLX being overdone to the downside, while my SPX spreads are being pressured to the upside. All manageable now, but until more time passes and/or tech starts its rebound, I’ll have to take my lumps on these naked DUST calls until I have the powder to re-enter.
#Earnings #StrangleRoll After getting stretched to the upside, it is now the put side of tech trades in trouble. Clearly overdone move, in my view; and overreaction to Trump’s past comments about AMZN, FB, AAPL, etc.
BTC NFLX Dec 15th 115 put for 6.60 (sold for 2.10 avg, still have another)
STO NFLX March 90/135 strangle for 6.86
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 2250/2275 call spreads for 2160, with SPX at 2168.
–Expiring–
JAZZ 95/115 strangles
NFLX 135 call
PRGO 93 calls
REGN 310 and 410 puts
SPX 1925/1900 put spreads
SVXY 55/85 strangles
–Assigned–
NFLX 122 put, taking some stock
#Earnings BTC $DIS Nov 11th 95 calls for 2.75. Sold yesterday in the 92/95/98 IB for 2.02.
#ContangoETFs Started the day OTM but never looked back. I closed these rather than take the stock short. Will sell rolls next week.
BTC DUST Nov 11th 50 call for 6.40
BTC DUST Nov 11th 48 calls for 8.40
#ContangoETFs #Rolling
BTC DUST Nov 18th 55 call for 4.40
STO DUST Dec 16th 70 call for 5.00
Also followed @Ramie77 STO DUST Nov 25th 70 call for 1.40
#ContangoETFs #Rolling
BTC $DUST Nov 18th 50 call for 5.00. Sold for 1.55 on Monday.
STO $DUST Dec 16th 63 call for 5.25
Gold tanking, DUST flying.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2025/2000 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2161.
#Earnings Put in orders to buy stock around the expected move, so bought two batches, at 92.50 and 92.00. Will sell tonight if there’s a recovery. Otherwise hold it.
#Earnings STO $DIS Nov 11th 92/95/98 iron butterfly for 2.03
#Earnings #shortstrangles
STO $CMG Dec 16th 420 call for 6.00. Paired with a 350 put, as a roll-out from busted earnings trade last month.
#Earnings STO $NFLX Dec 16th 115 put for 3.15, adding to the position.
NFLX, wow! FB, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, wow!
#Earnings BTC $DISH Nov 11th 53/59 strangles for .25. Sold for 1.30 on Tuesday.
Also, BTC $PRGO Nov 11th 75 puts for .05. Sold yesterday in the 75/93 strangles for 1.40. Order in to close the call side.
NDX down strong… others following?
#Earnings This one was looking good until Hillary went and lost the election. Now Biotech soaring.
Last Thursday I sold the REGN Nov 11th 310/372.5 strangle for 6.40. All looked peachy until it started rocketing. So I’m rolling a strike higher and will sell puts against it. We’ll call it the #FuzzTrade
BTC REGN Nov 11th 372.5 call for 55.00
STO REGN Dec 2nd 375 call for 55.65
STO REGN Nov 11th 410 put for .85 (expires tomorrow)
STO REGN Nov 18th 400 put for 3.25
#SPXcampaign In the pre-market, the following spreads closed:
Bought to close $SPX Nov 17th 1990/1965 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on Oct 20th.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 2nd 1895/1870 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 last Thursday.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2245/2270 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2176.
#Earnings Strangles on JAZZ, DISH, PRGO all working.
#SPXcampaign #OptionsExpiration
–Expiring–
SPX Nov 9th 1990/1965 put spreads. Sold for 1.90 on Friday.
SPX Nov 9th 2025/2000 put spreads. Sold for 1.30 on Monday.
SPX Nov 9th 2100/2075 put spreads. Sold for 4.50 on Monday.
#SPXcampaign Couldn’t get a break again, fourth day own a row I’ve been hit with ATM stops. This is all due to my aggressive selling of short-term, near-the-money spreads… these are NOT the usual SPX campaign trades.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 9th 2165 calls for 3.90. Sold as the 2165/2180 call spreads on Monday for 1.75.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 11th 2165/2190 call spreads for 9.35. Sold for 1.70 on Nov 4th.
Working on rolls for both. Plan to sell aggressive call spreads.
#Earnings Sold to Open Nov 11th $PRGO 75/93 strangles for 1.40. Biggest UP move: 7.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.2%, Average move: 5.6%. These strikes are +10.2% and -11.1% OTM
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 1975/1950 put spreads for 1.40,m with SPX at 2130. Back to my normal spread selling, as several extra spreads will be expiring today.
#CoveredCalls #Earnings #LongStock Glad to see this stock position recovering, after being assigned shares then watching it dip to mid 60’s.
STO $RGLD Nov 18th 82.5 covered call for .75
#SPXcampaign I went to bed thinking I’d be rolling under water put spreads…. instead my close orders are filling.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 11th 1980/1955 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Oct 14th.
Bought to close $SPX Nov 17th 1960/1935 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Oct 17th
Looks like we’re in for a bumpy ride.
#SPXcampaign I included positions traded today as well. I have not yet connected all the rolls with arrows.
This is my third day straight of closing spreads close to expiry at the worst price of the day. It is quite frustrating, but part of trading. It means I will have to sell more roll-spreads to make up for the huge premium I paid to exit.
I have closed my Nov 9th 2150/2175, but will be leaving on the Nov 9th 2165/2180. One reason is that it is only a 15-point spread, which will mean even if it’s fully ITM it will be easy to roll to my usual 25-point width.
If Trump somehow pulls it out, OR if it is too close to call, we’ll go down… question is, how far and how fast? I want to be clear that I’m not commenting on my political leanings. It is just that the markets have made it clear: a Hillary win is bullish, Trump is bearish. And it seems very likely Clinton will win. If she does, I believe we will rally but I will be looking to fade it. If VIX drops below 13.59 (from the #VIXIndicator), I will look to be bullish.
#SPXcampaign The Comey letter on Sunday changed everything, so call spreads sold Friday are getting crushed. I’m rolling this one before it gets ATM, as I cannot risk an explosive rally tomorrow.
BTC $SPX Nov 9th 2150/2175 call spreads for 12.75. Sold for 2.15 on Friday.
STO $SPX Nov 23rd 2085/2060 put spreads for 3.55, 2x position size, as partial roll. I would like to sell the call side of this roll tomorrow.
Options Bistro 