One of the few pre-ER stocks that’s staying strong thru this downturn.
#preearnings

Sold LMT pre-ER long calls @ 94% loss and BWB for 38% loss. Still holding double calendar thru earnings to reduce losses.

#preearnings

Sold two BWB (broken-wing fly) for average 10% profit. Got out based on hitting target price on LITE. The flies don’t profit as much as the long calls but they have less risk too.

#preearnings

Sold BABA pre-ER positions for average profit of 31%. Based on possibility of China one-day bounce.

#preearnings

AAPL BMY DIS GE LITE VALE
Trade at your own risk.:-)

#preearnings

When a system doesn’t work, stop trading it. No more pre-ER this quarter for me. That means they’ll probably start working like a charm. I’ve been doing these systematically for two years. This is the first quarter where the losses are piling up.

Closed GPC long calls and straddle for a profit (held thru earnings)
Sold a double cal in HON to end up with a profit overall (unusual adjustment)
Full loss on VFC
Still holding AMZN, BABA, CAT, EOG, GOOGL, LITE, LMT, MSFT, ROKU, SHOP, SWK with limited risk. All losing except LITE at this point.

Will update the pre-ER spreadsheet with actual percent gains and losses after the close
#preearnings

Boom! Taking a moment for excessive celebration as this is the first pre-ER field goal of the season. lol.
Sold VALE Oct 26 16c @ .45 for target profit of 40%. Bot at avg price of .31

#preearnings

Adding opportunistically to BABA, EOG, LMT, SHOP, and VFC

#preearnings

Pre-ER. Bot GPC Oct19 40 delta strangle 97c/94.5p @ 2.65 x1. GTC order to close @ 3.40 for 40% profit.

#preearnings

This has not been my finest hour with pre-earnings trades. 100% loss in both C and JPM. Cutting max position size in half for the rest of October.

#preearnings

Added to CAT, LMT, MSFT, SWK
Opened first layer of GPC, VALE

#preearnings

VFC confirmed ER today so adding a small position for the 14/1 setup.
Bot VFC Oct26 95c @ 1.15 x2 (first of four possible layers)

#preearnings

Bot LMT Oct26 362.5 call @ 2.15. First of five possible layers.
#preearnings

Bot MSFT Oct 26 116c @ 1.67 x3 (first layer half size). This trade is based on a 100% win rate for the 21/1 setup. ER hasn’t been confirmed but the bloated vol in the Oct26 expiration is a good indication that they’ll report that week.

#preearnings

Bot CAT Oct26 165c @ 2.10 based on 21/1 setup. 1st of up to 5 layers

#preearnings

Tomorrow is entry day for a 100% winning pre-ER trade in MSFT. The backtest is based on entering 21 days before earnings and closing the day of earnings before the pm report.
http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20181003180959_8HR6GiEXLKbvvt3q

#preearnings

Bot C Oct12 74.5c @ .58 x4. Second layer on pullback.
Bot JPM Oct12 117c @ .59 x4. Second layer on pullback.

#preearnings

SWK is new to my pre-ER list but it has amazing stats for the last four quarters. I’ve run at least 20 setups on this ticker and all are winners. So with their confirmed earnings date of 10/25 am, I’m going to start building a position. This layer is tiny.

Bot SWK Oct26 155c @ 1.90 x1
#preearnings

Update: This list is based on my research and backtesting. Although I use CML tools, this list did not come from CML nor has it been vetted by them. Buy at your own risk which you already do.

Each quarter, I compile a list of pre-ER candidates based on CML backtests. Attached is the Q4 2018 list. Over the next few weeks, I will continue to modify the spreadsheet to add new ideas, custom setups and confirmed earnings dates. The suggested entry date is the date on which the backtest is based. The yellow highlight means it’s currently in entry week. You can start watching earlier for a good entry or add to a position after this date. This is a starting point for taking a long position in a stock before earnings. Green highlights indicate that the candidate has 100% win rates in more than one setup.

I include only setups and backtests with 100% win rate over at least four quarters, an average return per trade of 40% or more, stocks with weekly options, and medium to high options liquidity. There are many other pre-ER candidates in CML but my preference is to stick with the 100% winners as long as they provide a diverse selection.

Some interesting observations include:

• WYNN and SWK are the only stocks with a 100% win rate over more than 4 quarters
• CML has introduced a new pre-ER straddle that I like. It’s in the spreadsheet under the Custom column
• Many of our favorites have fallen off the 100% win rate list (BA, INTC, MA, PYPL and others)
• SWK emerges as the best candidate this quarter with 100% win rate across five setups

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RKD02IWjO9ZpAsJ7DqRojBkAnVTE1ZncFxUNHnUOZsE/edit?usp=sharing

#preearnings