Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
Rolled 9/4 3475/3500/3600/3625 iron condor out to 9/9 3455/3480/3570/3595 for .30 credit
Category Archives: Uncategorized
#earningsfive Yesterday STO 4 Sep…
#earningsfive
Yesterday STO 4 Sep Bups 112/107 for 1.50
Today, BTC for .10
Thanks Jeff for the data
#earningsFIVE
VXX I would have expected…
VXX
I would have expected more of a move here, could that indicate the 500 drop in /NQ isn’t that relevant? It is to me though.
Markets
Misleading headline of the day
“The Nasdaq Has Given Up All Of September’s Gains”
Interesting read…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/classic-feedback-loop-why-everyone-chasing-gamma-crash
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – Adding….
Sold TQQQ SEP 18 2020 120.0 Put @ 2.05
WFC Covered Calls
Sold WFC SEP 25 2020 $30 CALLS @ 0.11
The stock is bouncing around just above 25.
The premium is about equal to the new quarterly dividend, which is not a lot these days.
In my estimation banks are pretty Covid-proof so I’ll hold on for an eventual recovery.
It would be nice if they managed their business better though 😦
TRADES:
MS BTO STOCK @54.03 & 54.16 on the Point & Figure chart’s ascending triple top’s breakout, and double chart breakout buy signals. We’ll see.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 4, 2020 AC +2.65%
March 12, 2020 AC +7.05%
Dec. 12, 2019 AC -3.77%
Sept. 12, 2019 AC -3.41%
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
Avg (+ or -) 4.17%
Bias 0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 365.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 340.68 to 389.32 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 349.80 to 380.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 334.96 to 395.04
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 344.71
Open to requests for other symbols.
New VXX Diagonal
Sold 1 VXX Sep 04 2020 28 Call / Bought 1 VXX Sep 25 2020 50 Call @ 0.15 Credit
VIX SPY
Big ramp up is SPY plus a big move up in VIX/VXX
Today’s all-time-high in the S&P 500 was accompanied by the highest level ever for VIX at an all-time high stock print…
How long can this last?
CRWD
STO October 16, 90 puts at 1.30, stock is at 142 but, earnings are tonight.
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Booking and selling some more. These are replacing some stock that will get called away over the weekend at breakeven. Had been selling DITM calls against it but not very rollable now. Resetting with new short puts.
Bought to Close UVXY SEP 4 2020 21.0 Puts @ .12 (sold for .54)
Sold UVXY SEP 11 2020 22.0 Puts @ 1.16
CRWD earnings
#Earnings. Aggressive put spread: Sold to Open $CRWD Sept 4th 150/145 put spreads for 3.20.
SPX timing indicator
For all you signal traders, I hope you’ve been paying attention. Apparently I’m getting good at this. As soon as I put on a new SPX condor, the index immediately ran up about 25 points.
Let me know when you’re ready for a pullback and I’ll sell a put spread or something. Happy to help.
UVXY
#CoveredCalls – Picking up some upside…
Rolled UVXY SEP 11 2020 20.0 Calls to UVXY SEP 18 2020 21.0 Calls @ .15 credit
FIVE earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $FIVE Sept 4th 107/112-135/140 condors for 1.661 (avg price). Bullish lean based on past performance, and market’s direction.
WYNN put spread
Sold $WYNN 10/16 80/70 bull put spread @ 2.88. Short puts 31 delta.
SPX-Starting again
Was out of trading this for a long time but apparently I just can’t stay away now.
Channeling the short memory of a defensive back that got burned, and initiating a new 3 day trade:
Sold $SPX 9/4 3475/3500/3600/3625 iron condor @ 4.35. Short puts 15 delta, short calls 16 delta. SPX around 3558.
Throwing in the towel on SPX
With SPX going up again, bought to close 9/9 3450/3475//3540/3565 @ 16.76. Feel free to consider this your signal to sell the market.
Will reinitiate with something probably later today.
MSFT
Sold MSFT 1 x 3 x 2 SEP 25 2020: 230 / 225 / 220 PUT Unbalanced Butterfly @ 1.35 credit.
No risk to the upside. Downside breakeven point @ $222.
Adjustment plan when (if) MSFT goes lower, close out the 1 x 230 / 225 put spread for a credit, add a 2 x upside call credit spread to match the leftover 225 / 220 put spread, creating an Iron Condor.
DOCU Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out a couple weeks for a lower sale…
Sold DOCU SEP 18 2020 190.0 Put @ 3.30
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Still hedging a little…
Bought to Close UVXY SEP 4 2020 20.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for .72)
Sold UVXY SEP 11 2020 21.5 Puts @ 1.17
TSLA
#ShortStrangles – Stopped out at over 50 percent max. Based on pre-split prices…
Bought to Close TSLA SEP 4 2020 1750.0/3400.0 Strangle @ 5.55 (sold for 12.20)
#earningsCRWD STO 11 Sep BuPS…
#earningsCRWD
STO 11 Sep BuPS 115/120 for 1.63
Short delta .24
Reports tonight
Hoping for, and a participant in, continued irrational tech speculation.
VIX
/VX Futures, VIX and VXX all up again
Really afraid of the VIX move if the SPY were to actually go down
WDC
New diagonal call spread to go along with my covered calls @ 38 and my Put diagonal spread @ 37.
Bought WDC Oct 16 2020 47.5 Calls / Sold WDC Sep 04 2020 38.5 Calls @ 0.21 Credit.
If the stock stays up I will roll the covered calls and the diagonal calls out while the puts expire.
All the shorts expire with the stock ending the week between 37 and 38
#ShortDiagonalCalendar
SQQQ
Sold 1 SQQQ Sep 04 2020 19 Put @ 0.22 on the open when the stock got down to 19.55
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 2nd 3560/3580 call spreads for .95. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. Stop hit at the open.
Rolling SPX again
I was watching this all day and it hung around just under the short calls most of the day. On the punch up above the 3520 level, I decided to roll it again keeping short delta with about 15 points of room on the upside. 3 day weekend coming as well so there’s an extra day of decay in there.
Rolled $SPX 9/4 3410/3435//3520/3545 iron condor out to 9/9 3450/3475//3540/3565 for .27 credit.
LABU
#ShortPuts – First ones in this expiration…
Sold LABU SEP 25 2020 40.0 Puts @ 1.45
RH BUPS Closed
#bups
$RH BTC 9/4 297.50/312.50 BUPS at .30. STO 8/18 at 4.50
ADBE
BTC $ADBE Sep-04-2020 465/475 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO @1.09 on 8/27.
RKT Strangle
#earnings #shortstrangles
Earnings tomorrow
$RKT STO 9/18 28/37 strangle at 5.97. Call side is covered. Hoping it won’t pull a ZM on me. But then again, that would not be so bad.
AAPL
Apple’s Market Cap Surpasses The Entire Russell 2000 Due To “Option Insanity”
The convexity skew picture on big-name equities like Apple $AAPL has gone parabolically stupid. Let’s keep this simple and draw a conclusion.
Apple $AAPL Stock near $130
Jan $180 Strike Calls costs $4
Jan $80 Strike Puts costs $1
*Both options are $50 out of the money, approx data, BUT it is nearly 3x more expensive to buy upside risk in AAPL equity. What does this mean?Apple closed near $130, while the cost of speculative upside calls is weighted heavily against the buyer.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 8th 3495/3515-3525-3545 condors for 16.10, with SPX at 3519.
WBA Option Ladder
#FallingKnife at a new low of 36.50
Sold 1 WBA 10/02/2020 36.00 Put @ 1.20
Sold 1 WBA 10/16/2020 35.00 Put @ 1.15
SEDG scalping
#UnbalancedButterfly Original trade was STO SEDG 1 x 3 x 2 SEP 18 2020: 210 / 200 / 190 Unbalanced Put Butterfly @ $2.68 credit.
SEDG is currently @ $220. Looking to take off the 1 x 210 / 200 long put spread, and then layer on a Bear Call spread to create an Unbalanced Iron Condor (1 x 200 / 210 : 2 x 230 / 240).
STC SEDG 1 x SEP 28, $210 / $200 long Bull put spread @ $2.90
STO SEDG 1 x SEP 28, $240/ $230 Bear Call spread @ $2.90 (yes, same prices)
Total credit received so far ($2.68 + $2.90 + $2.90) is $8.48.
Original trade link: https://wp.me/p6Nxuc-jFO
LULU, SPCE.
BTC Sep-04-2020 290/300 #BuPS @0.06 Debit. Was STO on 8/6 @1.56.
STO Oct-02-2020 325/335 #BuPS @1.81 Credit.
Holding Sep-11 290/300 #BuPS, Sep-18-2020 310/320 #BuPS and Sep-25 320/330 #BuPS
Rolled SPCE 30 Sep-18-2020 30 #ShortPuts // Oct-16-2020 #ShortPuts @0.41 Credit. (slowly getting less bad)
HII WBA
Both within 1% of their YTD low
Both in the S&P500
Both profitable and pay dividends
Also GILD bears watching
#FallingKnife
ZM Earnings Trade BECS Side Closed / ZM BUPS / ZM BUPS Closed
ZM TSLA AAPL Valuation Anyone?
Every day brings in crazy milestones from the hot U.S. tech space, like Apple being worth more than the entire FTSE 100 or Tesla being worth more than any European blue chip.
Today’s fun is brought to you by Zoom, which is up an whopping 45%!
The surges has lifted the live-video platform brought to fame by COVID-19 lockdowns to a market-cap of about 133 billion dollars or 112 billion euros.
Only 10 companies in the pan-European STOXX 600 index are worth more:
DOCU Earnings
NFLX
#ShortStrangles – Rolling up the put side for additional premium. New strike still well outside the expected move and below the 50ma.
Rolled NFLX SEP 18 2020 440.0 Put to SEP 18 2020 475.0 Put @ 1.81 credit
New position: 475/640 @ 5.40
WORK Earnings / MRVL Strangle
#earnings #bups
$WORK STO 9/11 27.50/30.50 BUPS at .75
#shortstrangles
$MRVL STO 9/11 38/40.5 strangle at 1.20
VIX and SPY
Another new all time high in the SPY (ignoring pre/post markets) and /VX futures are still up, though not as much as yesterday.
VIX is down a bit now but opened at a new high for this move at 26.59
ZM
Another day, another tech stock rocketing higher after crushing earnings. Ho hum.
Huge earnings beats are becoming a weekly event, and there is no denying that the recent stock market action is producing some interesting results. With index inclusion decisions looming, trading should stay interesting.
Zoom Video Communications (ticker: ZM) stock is up 27% in premarket trading Tuesday after reporting second quarter numbers Monday evening. The company earned 92 cents a share. Analysts were looking for 45 cents in per-share earnings. It was a huge beat.
The stock is at $411 in premarket trading, bringing year-to-date gains to roughly 500%. Zoom’s market capitalization is now roughly $115 billion , making it worth more than IBM ( IBM ). Impressive.
TSLA
#ShortPuts – 1.5x the expected move and down closer to the 50ma.
Sold TSLA SEP 11 2020 350.0 Put @ 3.50
TSLA
Tesla Announces $5 Billion “At The Market” Stock Offering
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-announces-5-billion-market-stock-offering
In short, for those asking why TSLA picked an ATM, it was to avoid an institutional roadshow where buyers can perform due diligence or simply ask questions.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/beware-as-wall-street-goes-direct-to-consumer-11592389980
TQQQ Puts Closed
#shortputs
$TQQQ BTC 9/18 40 put at .05. STO at 1.72. Thank you @jsd501
TSLA
Crazy town again – today’s move equivalent to 278 points on the old stock.
On my watch list, only TSLA and /NQ futures, WDC and every VIX related stock index or future is up.
Everything else down.
Anther new high for S&P500 although it reversed into the red at the end.
Seven straight days with new all time highs
ZM Earnings IC
#earnings #ironcondor
$ZM STO 9/4 270/280/370/360 IC at 3.05
TSLA
#ShortStrangles – Rolling up the put side slightly…
Rolled TSLA SEP 4 2020 300.0 Puts to SEP 4 2020 350.0 Puts @ .93 credit (12.25 total now based on pre-split)
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Completely out of this now for the first time in quite awhile. Watching for a re-entry…
Bought to Close EWZ SEP 4 2020 28.5 Puts @ .17 (sold for .64)
#closing and #coveredcalls COF Aug….
#closing and #coveredcalls
COF Aug. 19 sold 57.50/75 #shortstrangles for 1.67, bought today for 1.22
CC sold Sept. 4, 21 covered call for .43
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Rolling this one up again for additional credit. Selling at the 20ma and the current expected move. We’ll call it a possible #TakeOneForTheTeam …..
Rolled NVDA SEP 18 2020 450.0 Put to SEP 18 2020 490.0 Put @ 4.70 credit (11.75 total now)
VIX & markets
In fact as the S&P hits all-time-highs, this is a level of VIX that has not been seen since those heady days of extreme speculation and retail day-trading muppetry. This is a very different regime of ‘walls of worry’ that we saw during the 2017/2018 all-time-highs…
This level of co-movement between VIX and stocks is highly unusual – and has typically not ended well for stocks. Except this time is even more extreme, as the correlation between stocks and vol is at its highest since the collapse of XIV and Volmageddon 2018…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/last-time-happened-was-day-dot-com-bubble-burst
BA
BA @ $171.90
BTO BA Dec 18 $160 / $190 Long Call Vertical @ $12.20 (position $11.90 ITM at kick-off)
STO BA Sep 18 $165/$160 Bull Put Spread @ $1.79 (half sale).
TRADES:
VMW BTO STOCK a teeny bit @147.08
CC STO 9/4/20 ITM 21.5 PUTS @.88
WKHS STO 9/4/20 19.0 CALLS @.56
WKHS STO 9/4/20 19.0 CALLS @1.00
OK, the site is working…
OK, the site is working for me now. No need to answer my query. Thank you
TQQQ
BTC September 4, 65 puts at .01 and that is all this week.
NFLX
#ShortStrangles – Selling at about 2x the expected move…
Sold NFLX SEP 18 2020 440.0/640.0 Strangle @ 3.60
NFLX
#ShortPuts – Staying small and short term…
Sold NFLX SEP 18 2020 450.0 Put @ 2.85
FSLY
#ShortPuts – A couple starters…
Sold FSLY SEP 18 2020 75.0 Put @ 2.20
Sold FSLY SEP 18 2020 70.0 Put @ 1.20
PFE
BTO PFE @ $37.73
STO Oct 02; $35 / $40 strangle @ $0.73
Happy to double down @ $35 and then sell calls.
ZM earnings analysis
#Earnings $ZM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
June 2, 2020 AC +7.58%
March 4, 2020 AC +7.02%
Dec. 5, 2019 AC -9.94%
Sept. 6, 2019 BO -7.85%
June 6, 2019 AC +18.40%
Avg (+ or -) 10.16%
Bias 3.04%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 305.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 267.52 to 342.48 (+/- 12.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 5 quarters: 274.02 to 335.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.4%): 248.88 to 361.12
Based on DOWN max only (-9.9%): 274.68
NOTE: 5-day results show reversals into the negative for the last two quarters!
Open to requests for other symbols.
VXX Calls
Sold 1 VXX Sep 04 2020 30.00 Call at $0.47
Sold 1 VXX Sep 04 2020 30.50 Call at $0.43
Sold 1 VXX Sep 04 2020 31.00 Call at $0.39
Sold 1 VXX Sep 04 2020 32.00 Call at $0.33
Holding Long VXX October and November calls as a hedge
VXX
New Diagonal Call spread
Bought Open VXX Oct 16 2020 65 Calls / Sold VXX Sep 04 2020 27.5 Calls @ 0.03 Credit.
It’s not about how much you make in the first week of the diagonal spread, it’s how much you can make with re-writes.
SPX 7
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 4th 3480/3500-3510/3530 condors for 15.90, with SPX at 3506.
TSLA
Tesla ‘Losing Ground’ In Europe’s Biggest EV Market As July Registrations Crash
“Tesla posted a 76% decline…”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-losing-ground-europes-biggest-ev-market-july-registrations-crash
Expiration
#optionsexpiration
$MRVL 36 put
$CLDR 12.50 put
$NIO 18.50 Put
$NVAX 117 call
Have a nice weekend all. Be safe. Storms, fires and politicians abound. Be careful.
SPY Rolling LEAP
#longcalls
$SPY BTC 1/212/2022 240 call and BTO 1/21/2022 330 call for 101.06 credit. If world going to end soon, I’ll need spending money. 😉
SPX trades and expirations
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 31st 3425/3445-3555/3575 condors for .95, IV 10.16%, SPX 3507, deltas -.07, +.06.
Expiring: Aug 28th 3400/3420-3550/3570 condors , sold yesterday for .90.
#Supercharger expiring: $SPX Aug 28th 3400/3425 call spreads for max credit of 20.00, bought yesterday for 18.80.
#Earnings Expired at full loss: $ANF 10.5 puts, bought Wednesday for .85.
Rolling SPX
I know I said I was only going to roll this once but I guess I can’t stay away from the roll game. Let’s see what happens with this. Extending the trade to 9/4.
Rolled 9/2 3375/3400/3505/3520 iron condor out to 9/4 3410/3435/3520/3545 for .15 credit. Short puts 20 delta short calls 42 delta.
Options Bistro 