#earnings #shortstrangles
$SWKS BTC 2/21 110/145 strangle at .15. STO 1/23 for 1.67. Thank you @jsd501
Recent Updates Page 218
BABA Earnings
#earnings #shortputs #becs
$BABA STO 2/14 212.50 put at 1.13
$BABA STO 2/14 235/240 BECS at .92
NTAP Earnings
#ShortPuts – Not much out there to do right now. A couple accounts with no positions at all completely in cash. I’ll take a small shot here.
Sold NTAP FEB 14 2020 57.5 Puts @ .79
#doublecalendarYELP I have not modeled…
I have not modeled it yet, but at first glance, YELP has a large IV drop coming.
Thoughts?
TAP dance
#Earnings . Bought to close $TAP Feb 14th 58 calls for .10. This will clear the way for a bigger profit if stock recovers. #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .17 and .20
FB
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 12th 3385 calls for .40. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit this morning.
Closing UNH
Bought to close $UNH 3/20 250P @ .94. Sold for 4.50 on 1/31.
Rolling BA
From my adjusted iron condor (to a 330/340/350 iron butterfly in 2/21), rolled to 3/20 335/345/350/360 iron condor @ .63 credit. Total premium for position now 6.94 against 10 point wide wings. Stock at 346.80.
TRADES:
OSTK STO 2/21/20 9.0 CALLS @.50
SPCE BTO STOCK @21.82 & 22.17
SPCE STO 2/21/20 24.0 CALLS @.93
PANW
#ShortPuts – One of the few red bars I’m seeing today. Selling pretty tight at the 50ma but it’s the week before earnings so should have great premium to roll or sell into if needed.
Sold PANW FEB 21 2020 237.5 Put @ 2.05
EXAS Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Not worth holding for 3 more days…
Bought to Close EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Puts @ .15 (sold for 1.05)
SHOP Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Thanks for playing. See you in 3 months!
Bought to Close SHOP FEB 14 2020 450.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 5.10)
GILD
#ShortPuts – Adding to a previous sale…
Sold GILD MAR 06 2020 65.0 Puts @ 1.30
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 1, 2019 BO -0.11%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Avg (+ or -) 2.75%
Bias 0.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 221.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.84 to 232.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 215.41 to 227.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 207.48 to 235.52
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 208.43
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
May 18, 2017 AC +0.38%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -0.87%
Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias -0.39%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.61 to 68.39
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.63 to 67.37
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 59.18 to 70.82
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 59.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
Electrified
Looks like $SHOP is trying to pull a $TSLA this morning.
#coveredcalls $OKTA BTC 2/14 134…
#coveredcalls
$OKTA BTC 2/14 134 and STO 2/21 137 call at .40 debit. Stock at 137.25
$GSX BTC 2/21 40 and STO 3/20 45 call at .65 debit. Stock then fell $4.50 to 36.23. Oh timing where art thou sting?
SHOP
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 3295/3315-3385/3405 condors for 1.05. IV 10.30%, SPX 3357, deltas -.08, +.07
TSLA
#ShortPuts – Profitable stop set on my previous sale. Adding another one 70 points outside the expected move…
Sold TSLA MAR 13 2020 550.0 Put @ 6.10
SHOP put spread
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP Feb 14th 465/460 put spreads for 1.40. Filled when stock hit 493.50, so short strike is 5.8% OTM. Stock has dropped more than that only twice on last 12 earnings.
TSLA closed
Closed final batch this morning for .65… Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles sold last Wednesday for 9.82.
Watching to sell another one, although premium has come in quite a bit. Need another large move or the excitement may be over.
TAP earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $TAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019 BO -3.09%
July 31, 2019 BO -5.14%
May 1, 2019 BO -7.54%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO -9.44%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%
Avg (+ or -) 5.65%
Bias -1.12%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.76 to 61.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 55.05 to 61.65
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 49.36 to 67.34
Based on UP max only (+9.9%): 64.15
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADBE
STO $ADBE Mar-21-2020 335/345 #BuPS @1.65 – Earnings on Mar 12th. Short put 21 Delta.
LK
On the move up this AM taking 50%….BTC LK 21 FEB 44/44.5/28 #jadelizard @.55….STO 1/30 @1.13..
LYFT earnings
Sold $LYFT 2/21 48/61 strangles @ 1.23. Earnings idea from TastyTrade. Strikes outside the expected move.
NFLX
BTC $NFLX Feb-14-2020 340/350 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO Feb-6-2020 @1.00
AMD
#ShortPuts – A few more…
Bought to Close AMD FEB 28 2020 42.0 Puts @ .06 (sold for .72)
WYNN
#ShortPuts #Earnings – This was originally an earnings play so booking it on the bounce. There’s gotta be some China risk in this one…
Bought to Close WYNN FEB 21 2020 123.0 Puts @ .98 (sold for 2.08)
ISRG
#ShortPuts – Third time this year so far so don’t mind bailing early…
Bought to Close ISRG FEB 14 2020 557.5 Put @ .35 (sold for 3.12)
SHOP Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – This stock has gone vertical and seems priced for perfection so this is kinda risky. Selling at the expected move. With very few positions on now, earnings is about the only action.
Sold SHOP FEB 14 2020 450.0 Put @ 5.10
TQQQ XBI
#ShortPuts – Cleaning up some scraps that are still weeks from expiration…
Bought to Close TQQQ FEB 28 2020 80.0 Put @ .22 (sold for 2.31)
Bought to Close XBI MAR 20 2020 79.0 Put @ .09 (sold for 1.04)
Bought to Close XBI MAR 20 2020 80.0 Put @ .11 (sold for 1.00)
AMAT analysis — Got anything…
AMAT analysis — Got anything on $AMAT for tomorrow, @Jeff?
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHOP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -3.81%
Aug. 1, 2019 BO +7.39%
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Avg (+ or -) 6.18%
Bias 2.19%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 497.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 451.53 to 543.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 466.75 to 528.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 43765 to 557.35
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 452.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
EXAS earnings analysis
#Earnings $EXAS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 AC -7.28%
July 30, 2019 AC -2.35%
April 30, 2019 AC -1.48%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +10.51%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +10.32%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -12.66% Biggest DOWN
April 26, 2018 AC +11.63%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -5.82%
Oct. 30, 2017 AC +9.76%
July 25, 2017 AC +6.21%
April 27, 2017 BO +26.63% Biggest UP
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +12.55%
Avg (+ or -) 9.77%
Bias 4.84%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 97.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.87 to 105.13
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 87.53 to 106.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.6%): 71.17 to 122.83
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 84.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPXpired
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Feb 10th 3245/3265-3360/3380 condors, sold Friday for 1.25.
More all-time highs. Who could have guessed?
Closing and re-establishing AMD
Taking profits on the short puts and establishing a new trade to continue selling premium on this (IV rank 41).
-Bought to close $AMD 3/20 42 puts @ .40 (sold for 1.20 on 1/29)
-Sold $AMD 3/20 46/60 strangle @ 1.71 with the stock now at 52.20. Delta neutral with both puts and calls at 19
TSLA closing
BTC $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 1.47. Sold for 9.82 last Wednesday. Holding one more per account until tomorrow or Wednesday, then I will look for another strangle.
When the stock peaked at 820 this morning, and the Feb 21st 1100 calls were going for 11.00. Then, when the stock bottomed near 750.00 a couple hours later, that option was under 4.50. So still, incredible swings in option volatility.
ROKU Earnings
#earnings #shortputs
$ROKU STO 2/14 120 put at 4.85
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Feb double dip on this one. Out for a second time…
Bought to Close SOXL FEB 21 2020 190.0 Put @ .40 (sold for 2.50)
DRIP highest strike in June
Sold 6/19 160 call @ 11.30
LABU
#ShortPuts – Lots of interesting looking earnings this week so glad to see some of these filling…
Bought to Close LABU FEB 14 2020 45.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 2.45)
EXAS Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Jumping in early for tomorrow…
Sold EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Puts @ 1.05
GILD short puts
Been looking for an opportunity to get back into this stock. Nice setup and still high IV (IVR 60). Sold 3/20 65 puts @ 1.59. The major moving averages converging above the strike price so if support doesn’t hold down there I’ll exit. Alternative trade 3/20 65/60 bull put spread for 1.30-1.35.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Taking this off early after the big bounce…
Bought to Close SPY MAR 20 2020 310.0 Put @ 1.43 (sold for 4.03)
XBI
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close XBI FEB 21 2020 85.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.05)
ULTA
#ShortPuts – Staying involved in this one. Selling prior to earnings…
Sold ULTA MAR 6 2020 277.5 Put @ 2.85
AVGO
#ShortPuts – This should be prior to earnings. Selling outside the expected move and well below all major moving averages. China is a risk though…
Sold AVGO MAR 06 2020 287.5 Put @ 2.21
UAA earnings analysis
#Earnings $UAA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. I chose $UAA over $UA due to higher daily volume.
Nov. 4, 2019 BO -18.92%
July 30, 2019 BO -12.24%
May 2, 2019 BO +3.53%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +6.88%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +27.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 BO +4.55%
May 1, 2018 BO +1.52%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO +17.35%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -23.70%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -4.52%
April 27, 2017 BO +9.94%
Jan. 31, 2017 BO -25.74% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 13.05%
Bias -1.14%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 20.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.22 to 23.18
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 18.00 to 23.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 14.97 to 26.43
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 15.37
NOTE: 5-day max moves are -28.47% and +30.29%
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU
BTC $LULU Feb-21-2020 212.5/222.5 #BuPS @0.12. Was STO Jan-27-2020 @1.40
DRIP
STO the March 184 call at 1.85
ROKU calls
#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 2/14 140 call at 6.79
Episode 1 – Billie Eilish, Rush, Grammys in review, Shakira vs. J.Lo
New Pick: Billie Eilish / Old Pick: Rush / Movie Picks: Oscar best picture / Grammy Picks – Blood Sweat & Tears vs. The Beatles vs. Milli Vanilli / Superbowl Pick: Shakira vs J.Lo / Bourbon Picks. Go to https://thepickcast.com/ for playlists and more info.
REGN TNA TSLA ULTA WYNN
#ShortPuts #Earnings – On the golf course all week but still managed a few…
REGN: Earnings…
Bought to Close REGN FEB 07 2020 355.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.80)
TNA: Booking it…
Bought to Close TNA FEB 07 2020 67.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.32)
TSLA: Back in on the big drop…
Sold TSLA MAR 06 2020 450.0 Put @ 4.00
ULTA: Still digging out…
Bought to Close ULTA FEB 07 2020 267.5 Put @ .04 (sold for 3.40)
WYNN: Earnings…out a couple weeks for some extra room.
Sold WYNN FEB 21 2020 123.0 Puts @ 2.08
Expirations
#optionsexpiration
$SPX 3280/3300/3370/3390
$CMG 815/825 BUPS Thank you @lesserweavil
$CMG 900/910 BECS Earnings jade lizard trade
$NUGT 34.5 call
$ROKU 132 call
$LK 33 put
$T 37.5 put
Have a nice weekend.
AMZN BUPS
#bups
$AMZN STO 3/20 1985/1995 at 2.85
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 10th 3245/3265-3360/3380 condors for 1.25. IV: 9.12%, SPX 3328, deltas: -.07, .08.
Expiring: Feb 7th 3280/3300-3370/3390 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
Selling long Feb 7th 3225 calls or letting them expire for a (hopeful) credit, after having covered the short 3300’s yesterday. Legging out worked against me this time.
Closing CTSH
#Earnings Sold to close $CTSH Feb07/Feb14 65 call calendars for .02. #DoubleCalendars bought for .28 on Wednesday. Long puts will be lottery ticket for next week.
Econ Calendar for week of 2/10/20
#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday morning.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
TSLA strangle
Bought to close part of my $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 3.467. Sold Wednesday for 9.825.
Probably will wait for Monday before closing more.
File Under What Was I thinking
#becs
$AMZN BTC 3/20 2050/2080 BECS at 17. STO On 2/3 for 13. Yuck!
ZM Roll
#coveredcalls
$ZM BTC 2/14 82.50 and STO 3/6 88 at .09 credit extra. Earnings on 3/4. Thesis is earnings run and stock currently at 88.13. Gain another 9 cents plus 5.50 if assigned. Probably too good to be true.
EWW strangle
Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade. Sold $EWW 3/20 45/48 strangle @ 1.20.
TSLA
Yesterday STO $TSLA Feb 7 Calls @10.50. Selling against existing March 21 2020 585 Long calls.
Today – Rolled above $TSLA 800 Feb 7 Call to Feb 14 800 @28.00.
Thanks @optioniceman
Oil futures have weeklies :)
Taking advantage after the drop.
STO the /CL next week 45.5/55 strangle for 0.23. Plan to close or roll by Monday or Tuesday. The theta decays is huge 285 a day on 5 contracts.
Have not had time to post but this is good news, too good not to share.
Working on dispersion trading. Income trading plus directional kicks when opportunity is there.
Will update after the live trading session at the end of the month.
Hope everyone is doing/trading well.
AMZN Roll Calls
#syntheticcoveredcalls
$AMZN BTC 2/7 2085 call and STO 2/14 2140 calls at 1.85 extra credit. Sold against long 2/21 1900 calls.
AMAT, ABBV
AMAT…BTC FEB 20 63 CALL @.05….STO 1/29 @.41…..Earnings on 2/12 selling at expected move…STO 14 FEB 66 CALL @.48….Cost basis with this sale at $56.83…#CoveredCalls #pietrade
ABBV….BTC on GTC order 20 MAR 75 PUT @.20….STO 1/31 @1.19….#shortputs
TRADES:
SYY BTO STOCK @76.80 Been accumulating, 50 shares at a time.
PINS BTO STOCK 26.23 Up on earnings
PINS STO 2/14/20 27.5 CALLS @.65
LULU
#shortcallspreads TSLA Sold Feb. 21,…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Sold Feb. 21, 825/835 call spread for 2.27, chippin away
SAVE Puts
#shortputs
$SAVE STO 2/21 42.5 puts at 1.10
WYNN put spread
With IV still elevated post earnings, sold $WYNN 3/20 120/110 bull put spread @ 2.43. Possibly early on this but strike is below the January lows and the 200 day moving average. If I’m wrong I will close this quickly.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator Forgot to note that yesterday the Downside Warning was canceled when $SPX hit all-time highs. $VIX hasn’t dropped a lot, however, so it may not mean all-clear ahead.
MRVL Puts
#shortputs
$MRVL STO 2/14 24 puts at .53.
Options Bistro 