#BearCallSpreads – Sold off hard to support. Book ’em and wait for the next rally…
Bought to Close DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .41 (sold for 1.45)
Recent Updates Page 227
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning is officially canceled as the SPX notched a new all-time high. However, this high was driven by a tweet that we humans understand, based on recent history, really doesn’t mean anything. The algos respond and drive us higher. If no trade deal is reached by Sunday, or there’s no agreement to delay the tariffs, we could re-enter a Downside Warning quickly and easily.
My opinion: I don’t think a trade deal will be reached until after the election. However, I do think the tariffs will be delayed. I don’t know how that will affect the markets, but Monday we could be anywhere.
LULU
#ShortPuts – Early on this one. Still holding the 217.5 for tomorrow…
Sold LULU DEC 27 2019 217.5 Put @ 2.80
WDC
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close WDC DEC 20 2019 45.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for .71)
CIEN Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Getting away to the upside so taking a small winner and moving on…
Bought to Close CIEN DEC 13 2019 33.5/37.0/38.0 Jade Lizards @ .81 (sold for 1.09)
Looked great until the conference call started…not sure what was said.
LULU Earnings
BTC LULU Dec13 215 Put @ 1.15. Opened yesterday afternoon at 2.28
#earnings #closing LULU Bought Jan….
KL Covered strangle Rolled / NUGT Puts Rolled / EWZ put Closed / LABU Calls Rolled / CMG BUPS Closed
#shortputs #coveredcalls
$KL BTC 12/20/40 put and STO 1/17/2020 40 put at added .80 credit.
$KL BTC 12/20/45 call and STO 1/17/2020 45 call at added ..65 credit.
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 12/20/ 35 puts and STO 12/27 34 puts at .75 debit. Spending .75 to get potential .25 “profit”. I have been rolling out and now down since 8/12. Current “profit” is $5200. If put to me tomorrow the profit would be reduced by $3640. Maybe I should just close out.
$EWZ BTC 12/20 40 put at .05. STO at .77. Thank you @fuzzballl
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 12/20 45 call and STO 1/3/2020 55 call at $7.90 debit. Basis now 57.04. Stock at 56.24. Close to throwing in the towel. Stock first bought on 3/5/2019. Bad trading. Should have gotten out of stock much earlier and took the loss. Now eight months of rolling and tracking and loss mitigated but the potential opportunity profits lost by capital tie up …duh!
#bups
$CMG BTC 12/20 690/700 BUPS at .05. Sold for 1.65. Thank you @ramie77 via @optioniceman inspiration.
SQ
#CoveredCalls – Late fill roll up and out a week…
Rolled SQ DEC 13 2019 64.5 Calls to DEC 20 2019 65.5 Calls @ even
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired today: $SPX Dec 11th 3075/3095-3160/3180 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.
IV and premium high this week due to Sunday’s tariff deadline. I have a 7-dte expiring Monday that has not changed in price despite two days passing and no movement in SPX.
LSCC
BTO January 17, 20 calls at .88 and , STO January 17, 17.5 puts at .91 cents
Rolling NUGT
BTC NUGT Jan 03 25.5 Puts (55% winner), STO Jan 17 25 put for .38cr
CIEN Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Taking a small shot. Breakeven near the expected move and recent lows with no upside risk.
Sold CIEN DEC 13 2019 33.5/37.0/38.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.09
TSLA
LK
STO January 17, 29 puts at 2.60
CIEN earnings analysis
#Earnings $CIEN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 BO -3.83%
June 6, 2019 BO +26.78% Biggest UP
March 5, 2019 BO -4.88%
Dec. 13, 2018 BO +8.61%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +12.44%
May 31, 2018 BO -4.19%
March 6, 2018 BO +10.05%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO -1.93%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -10.96% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 BO +15.80%
March 8, 2017 BO -8.40%
Dec. 8, 2016 BO +15.13%
Avg (+ or -) 10.25%
Bias 4.55%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 35.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 32.28 to 38.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 31.86 to 39.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.8%): 25.99 to 45.01
Based on DOWN max only (-11.0%): 31.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU #earnings Also from Yesterday…
LULU Earnings
#ShortPuts – Putting some risk on after taking some risk off. 🙂
Sold LULU DEC 13 2019 217.5 Put @ 3.10
Selling at the expected move and just above the 50ma….
ISRG NVDA SOXL
#ShortPuts – Taking some risk off in case this turns into tariff weekend…LOL
Bought to Close ISRG DEC 20 2019 530.0 Put @ .40 (sold for 3.80)
Bought to Close NVDA DEC 20 2019 190.0 Put @ .22 (sold for 2.60)
Bought to Close SOXL DEC 20 2019 165.0 Put @ .45 (sold for 3.00)
PTON
STO $PTON Dec 20 2019 32 Calls (Covered) @1.00
BTO $PTON Dec 20 2019 25.5 Protective Puts @0.3 (from yesterday)
My basis on the underlying is 24.38 (overall) if I’m doing my math right.
AEO closing
#Earnings BTC $AEO Dec 13th 15 calls for .05. Holding puts for a spike higher. Sold #LongStraddle for 1.35 yesterday.
#earnings LULU Sold Jan. 17,…
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Avg (+ or -) 11.64%
Bias 5.50%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 230.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.70 to 247.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 203.24 to 256.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 176.11 to 283.89
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 267.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
DRIP closed
#ContangoETFs . Just noticed I was filled yesterday:
BTC $DRIP Jan 17th 150 calls for .45. Sold for 4.50 on Dec 3rd.
VIX / SPX Correlation
The #VIX to SPX correlation is the highest it has been since we had the month-long decline in May. Today’s correlation is -.18. As a point of reference, the correlation hit the zero line a day or 2 before the onset of the May decline. Conversely, the correlation pretty much bounces between -.75 and the -1.00 floor during rallies. As with all indicators, it doesn’t have a perfect track record either. But I’m getting cautious and increasing my cash position.
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Starting to trim down a few…
Bought to Close EWZ DEC 20 2019 40.5 Puts @ .10 (sold for .93)
Bought to Close EWZ DEC 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .07 (sold for .74)
Off Topic…
#Bored – Pretty boring week. I’m mostly positioned for Dec monthly expiration which will return my accounts to close to 95 percent cash into year end…hoping for some January profit taking.
Now that I’m semi-retired I’ve picked up a new hobby. If anyone else is really bored check it out. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Getting a pretty good collection on the channel.
AEO straddle
#Earnings Sold to Open $AEO Dec 11th 15 #LongStraddle for 1.35. Needs over an 11% move before losses; avg move has been 6.6%.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 3075/3095-3160/3180 condors for 1.05. IV: 10.67%, SPX 3136.
#earnings #ironbutterfly AEO Sold Dec….
Sold Dec. 20, 13.50/15.50/15.50/17.50 for 1.33
Thanks for the data Jeff
AEO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AEO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 4, 2019 BO -11.61%
June 5, 2019 BO +0.10%
March 6, 2019 AC -0.37%
Dec. 11, 2018 AC +2.94%
Aug. 29, 2018 BO -6.52%
May 31, 2018 BO -1.81%
March 8, 2018 BO -9.43%
Dec. 6, 2017 BO +2.42%
Aug. 23, 2017 BO +7.76% Biggest UP
May 17, 2017 BO -14.73% Biggest DOWN
March 1, 2017 BO -9.52%
Nov. 30, 2016 BO -12.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.64%
Bias -4.43%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 15.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.90 to 16.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.28 to 16.32
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.7%): 13.05 to 17.55
Based on UP max only (+7.8%): 16.49
Open to requests for other symbols.
PLCE earnings analysis
#Earnings $PLCE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 21, 2019 BO -2.44%
May 15, 2019 BO -6.90%
March 5, 2019 BO +5.70%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -13.38% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -1.27%
May 17, 2018 BO -7.94%
March 20, 2018 BO -7.91%
Nov. 15, 2017 BO +5.92%
Aug. 9, 2017 BO -4.57%
May 18, 2017 BO -0.44%
March 8, 2017 BO +18.26% Biggest UP
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.24%
Avg (+ or -) 7.33%
Bias -0.14%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.31 to 77.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 64.41 to 74.59
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.3%): 56.81 to 82.19
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 60.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing ULTA
Bought to close $ULTA 12/20 275/285 bear call spread @ .17. Sold for 1.75 on 12/6.
#butterfly AMZN #tastytradefollow sold Jan.17,…
#butterfly AMZN
#tastytradefollow sold Jan.17, 1640/1660/1660/1670 put butterfly for 1.50
MDB
#Fuzzy VXX Bot Dec 17.5…
#Fuzzy VXX
Bot Dec 17.5 Fuzzy last week for tariff hedge, .18 net debit
Sold at the open for .20 net credit
Basically a scratch
Sue
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 16th 2985/3010-3200/3225 condors for 1.75, IV 14.25%, SPX 3142.
Expiring today:
Dec 9th 3095/3105-3175/3185 condors, sold Friday for .45
Dec 9th 3190/3215 call spreads, sold in a condor last Monday, put side was rolled to:
Dec 9th 3150/3175 call spreads, sold Tuesday for 1.60
BX ZM Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$BX BTC 12/20 54 calls and STO 12/27 55 calls at .40 debit but gained $1 if called away. Stock at 54.39 now
$ZM BTC 12/27 73 calls and STO 12/13 65 calls at .60 credit after stock dropped as result of guidance. Stock
at 66.04 now. Maybe I’ll roll tomorrow.
ULTA
STO March, 210 put at 4.70, I will average down on this one because i only have 100 shares from the earnings assignment devastation.
MDB earnings analysis
#Earnings $MDB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (8 quarters).
Sept. 4, 2019 AC -5.18% Biggest DOWN
June 5, 2019 AC -0.75%
March 13, 2019 AC +25.58% Biggest UP
Dec. 4, 2018 AC +8.37%
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +9.17%
June 6, 2018 AC -3.27%
March 13, 2018 AC +7.42%
Dec. 12, 2017 AC -5.68%
Avg (+ or -) 8.18%
Bias 4.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 120.31 to 145.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 122.12 to 143.88
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (25.6%): 98.98 to 167.02
Based on DOWN max only (-5.7%): 125.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 24, 2019 BO -4.41%
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.17%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1121.65 to 1233.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1116.08 to 1238.92
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1038.08 to 1316.92
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1256.86
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA TSLA
BTC $NVDA 180/190 Dec 20 #BuPS @0.22. Was STO 11.15 @1.65.
STO $TSLA 352.5/362.5 #BeCS @.70 #following @optioniceman
PTON
#optionsexpiration
OX $PTON 12/6/2019 28 #shortputsPuts – was STO @.40.
Replaced earlier this week with 12/13/2019 32p @.70. PTON @32.63.
RGEN
STO February 85 puts at 2.90
ULTA
BTC December 20, 210 put at .05
A TRADE:
STNE BTO STOCK 38.96 To cover some calls
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 3095/3105-3175/3185 condors for .45. 10-wide, doiuble sized position. IV: 7.01%, SPX 3149.
ULTA call spread
Sold $ULTA 12/20 275/285 bear call spread for 1.75 credit. Stock at 264.02 and it looks like it’s slowing its roll a bit from this morning’s craziness.
SPX stop-loss
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 6th 3145 calls for 2.60. Condors sold yesterday for .80
TRADES:
LK BTO STOCK @29.80 & 29.50
#calendar SPX #tastytradefollow Bought Dec….
#calendar SPX
#tastytradefollow Bought Dec. 31/Jan. 17 3120 put calendar for 14.40
ISRG
BTC $ISRG Dec 20 525/535 #BuPS @.20. Was STO 11/21 @1.49.
Another Downside bust
#VIXIndicator Well, that’s two Downside Warnings in a row that turned out to be only one-day warnings for a brief intraday low, then rocket back to the skies. I’m going to keep tracking them, but include a notice that they have not always been working. Meanwhile, I will research the history to determine if there are any concurrent indicators that can distinguish between accurate and inaccurate warnings.
For 2019, the Warning on 4/5 was good; 8/1 was okay; but 10/2 and 12/2 were head fakes.
UBER strangle
#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Jan 10th 25.5/31.5 strangles for .80
LULU
BTC Dec 20 2018 180/190 #BuPS @0.34. Sold 10/21 as 11.15 185/195 @1.39, rolled down to Dec 20 180/190 @.9. Overall 1.95 gain.
#shortcalls DKS Sold a Jan….
#shortcalls DKS
Sold a Jan. 17, 48 call for 1.00.
#rolling TSLA Rolled Dec. 20…
#rolling TSLA
Rolled Dec. 20 inverted 300/350 strangle to Jan. 3. I Have collected $5,046 in premium. This started as a 210/300 earnings strangle on Oct. 3.
ULTA
#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – Had I not gotten bearish this thing would be down 30 instead of up 30…LOL Spending my 5.00 I brought in yesterday on the roll of the covered call and sprinkling in a shorter term short put at the 50ma.
Rolled ULTA DEC 6 2019 230.0 Call to JAN 17 2020 240.0 Call @ 5.00 debit
Sold ULTA DEC 27 2019 242.5 Put @ 2.25
#earnings #closing FIVE Dec. 4,…
MRVL closed
#Earnings . BTC $MRVL Dec 6th 25 puts for .80. #LongStraddle sold for 1.65 on Tuesday. Closed for 1.00 total.
DRIP dropped
#ContangoETFs BTC $DRIP Dec 20th 115 calls for .80. Sold for 8.60 on July 23rd.
ULTA
STO March 280 covered call at 15.20
November Jobs Report
#Jobs — Blowout numbers
+266,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 187K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, down by 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, down by 0.1%
Wages up 0.3%, to 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, down by .01%
October revised up from 128K to 156K
September revised up from 180K to 193K
ULTA Earnings
#CoveredCalls #Earnings – This should almost guarantee blowout earnings. Rolling my covered call down into the money for additional downside protection…
Rolled ULTA DEC 6 2019 240.0 Call to DEC 6 2019 230.0 Call @ 4.91 credit (10.02 total now)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3055/3075-3145/3165 condors for .80. IV: 10.10%, SPX 3115.
STNE Rolled Put
#shortputs
$STNE BTC 12/6 40.50 put and STO 12/13 40 put at .20 debit.
BX Covered Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$BX BTC 12/13 53.50 calls and STO 12/20 54 calls at .01 credit. Stock currently at 53.52.
$SPX Campaign Call Side Closed
#spxcampaign
BTC 12/9 3180/3205 BECS at .05. STO at .41. Put side still open
Thank you @jeffcp66
SHOP
BTC December 250 puts at .05 and sold the February 250 puts at 3.00
SPX
STO Dec 6 IC 3150/3155 3075/3070 $0.35 cr
SPX Closed
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 12/9 3140/3165 BECS at 1.50 STO at 2.50 on 12/4.
TQQQ Long Leaps Closing Down
#longleaps
$TQQQ BTO 1/17/2020 66.67 calls on 11/12/2018.
Sold calls against and rolled 42 times the last eleven months.
Closed out 60% of position this morning, leaving me with 4 long calls bought at 8.20 and
current price of 11.04. I have stop in at 9.95.
The six closed leaps yielded a 64% gain over the eleven months. 13.32 proceeds per contract versus the 8.20 per contract purchase price.
Thank you @jeffcp66 for the trade and the inspiration to keep rolling. You will forever be given the attribution for this proverb – A Rolling LEAP Can Gather Dough!
#shortcalls CPRI Sold Jan. 17,…
#shortcalls CPRI
Sold Jan. 17, 40 call for 1.14
Take FIVE
#Earnings BTC $FIVE Dec 6th 115 puts for .05. The 115/113 spreads sold for .763 (avg price) yesterday. Holding long 113 puts, expiration lottery ticket.
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 AC -29.55% Biggest DOWN
May 30, 2019 AC +1.50%
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias -2.22%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 219.79 to 264.21
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 223.90 to 260.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.6%): 170.49 to 313.51
Based on UP max only (+8.3%): 262.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 