#shortcalls CPRI
Sold Jan. 17, 40 call for 1.14
Recent Updates Page 228
Take FIVE
#Earnings BTC $FIVE Dec 6th 115 puts for .05. The 115/113 spreads sold for .763 (avg price) yesterday. Holding long 113 puts, expiration lottery ticket.
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 AC -29.55% Biggest DOWN
May 30, 2019 AC +1.50%
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias -2.22%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 219.79 to 264.21
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 223.90 to 260.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.6%): 170.49 to 313.51
Based on UP max only (+8.3%): 262.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Fuzzy VXX Charlie McElligot at…
#Fuzzy VXX
Charlie McElligot at Nomura is issuing a lot of gamma red flag warnings for a vol shock. What the heck…a nice time to dust off a fuzzy in VXX.
Dec 20 Bot 17.5 call
Dec 20 Sold 17.5 put
Dec 20 Bot 15.5 put
Net price: .18 debit
I would guess vol stays steady here due to upcoming tariff increases on Dec 15, so I think not much decay on this–it’s a cheap way to get on some long gamma.
High FIVE
BTC $FIVE 100/110 Dec 06 #BuPS @0.05. STO yesterday @1.75.
Yes, I could have let it expire tomorrow, but I’d rather lock in the gain and get the margin back.
Thanks Jeff for Data!
SIG closed
#Earnings BTC $SIG Dec 6th 17 #LongStraddle for 1.75 (1.50 calls, .25 puts). Sold yesterday for 2.86.
ROKU Rolled
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 12/13 145 calls and STO 12/13 147 calls at 1.47 debit. Stock at 150.58. If called away I would gain .53 on the 1.47 “investment”. I will try the roller coaster a few more times before stock taken away, I think.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 3120 calls for .20. Condors sold yesterday for .80.
#shortputspread HD Sold Jan. 17,…
Sold Jan. 17, 195/205 for 1.45. I’m count on HD having bottomed after earnings at about 213.
RH Earnings
#IronFlies #Earnings – With over a 20 dollar move expected this has very little if any chance of working. Playing it as a lottery ticket out of boredom. Let’s see a 200 pin on this on Friday. 🙂 🙂
Only filled on one so far…
Sold RH DEC 6 2019 195/200/200/205 Iron Fly @ 4.80
Risk 20 to make 480 (now that’s a lottery ticket!)
SIG alert
#Earnings Sold to Open $SIG Dec 6th 17 #LongStraddle for 2.86. Stock must move over 16.7% to become a loser. Avg move has been 14.57%.
#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Dec….
SHOP put spread
Sold $SHOP 12/20 345/335 bull put spread @ 1.92. Will get out of it if today’s move doesn’t hold.
FIVE earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 28, 2019 AC +6.27%
June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 5.62%, robustly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 117.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.13 to 126.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.95 to 125.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 91.42 to 142.58
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 112.96
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
AMRN BTO STOCK @22.68
CLDR BTC 10.5 112/6/19 CALLS Earnings after market today.
SIG earnings analysis
#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 BO +26.88% Biggest UP
June 6, 2019 BO -1.23%
April 3, 2019 BO +0.54%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84%
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Avg (+ or -) 14.57%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.80 to 19.20
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.10 to 18.90
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 11.49 to 21.51
Based on UP max only (26.9%): 20.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 10, 2019 AC +5.07%
June 12, 2019 AC +15.82%
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Avg (+ or -) 18.68%
Bias 5.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 204.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 181.93 to 226.07
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 165.90 to 242.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 112.71 to 295.29
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 151.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
SEDG
BTO, January 17, 90/100 bull call spread at 3.50
MRVL straddle
#Earnings BTC $MRVL Dec 6th 25 calls for .20. #ShortStraddle sold yesterday for 1.65. Will close puts on the rebound.
NUGT Puts Closed
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 12/6 28 puts at .35. STO at 2.92 on 11/26
SPX 7-dte stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 9th 3025/3000 put spreads for 1.90, at the close. Condors sold yesterday for 1.75. Letting the 3190/3215 call side expire.
#ReverseRoll Sold $SPX Dec 9th 3150/3175 call spreads for 1.60. Believing there is more downside ahead, but will be wary of a big up day, which is always possible in volatile times.
#earnings #closing CRM Earlier today…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 4th 3010/3030-3120/3140 condors for .80, IV: 13.26%, SPX 3086
SEDG
STO February 21, 75 puts at 3.90
TRADES: Back from my hiatus. ;>)
LK STO 12/6/19 30.5 PUTS @.70
CLDR STO 12/6/19 10.5 CALLS @.51
MRVL earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $MRVL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 AC -0.95%
May 30, 2019 AC +0.49%
March 7, 2019 AC -2.55%
Dec. 4, 2018 AC +3.80%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC -0.05%
May 31, 2018 AC +2.92%
March 8, 2018 AC +0.08%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -4.55% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +7.50%
May 25, 2017 AC +4.30%
March 2, 2017 AC +1.51%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +10.77% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.29%
Bias 1.94%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 25.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.29 to 26.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 24.18 to 25.82
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.8%): 22.31 to 27.69
Based on DOWN max only (-4.6%): 23.86
Open to requests for other symbols.
TLT call spread
Fading today’s big move in bonds which is starting to lose steam. Sold $TLT 1/17/20 142/147 bear call spread @ 1.44. IV rank is 49.
UVXY
STO, January 17, 30 call at .75, starter position so my next one will be the 35 calls.
SHOP
#ShortPuts – Taking a little risk off early…
Bought to Close SHOP DEC 20 2019 280.0 Put @ .70 (sold for 3.90)
ROKU Rolled – Making Lemonade From Sand ;-)
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 12/6 167.50 calls and STO 12/13 145 calls at $5 added credit. Basis now at 151.50. Stock at 142.40.
Ever will the twain meet.
NUGT Rolled
#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 12/6 29 calls and STO 12/13 31 calls at added .20 credit. Stock at 29.43
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 12/13 36 puts and STO 12/20 351 puts at .65 debit, but would gain $1 if called away. Stock at 29.43
DRIP calls
#ContangoETFs At the highs this morning, Sold $DRIP Jan 17th 150 calls for 4.50.
HD put spread
Sold $HD 1/17 205/195 bull put spread @ 1.89.
#earnings CRM Sold Jan. 17,…
#earnings CRM
Sold Jan. 17, 140/180 strangle for 2.29.
Thanks for the data Jeff
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 22, 2019 AC +2.24%
June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Avg (+ or -) 2.80%
Bias 1.99%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 160.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 152.37 to 167.63
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 155.52 to 164.48
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 143.57 to 176.43
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 157.10
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing BBY Nov. 25,…
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator The $VIX close today was 14.91, which is over 25% higher than Wednesday’s close, triggering a Downside Warning. Based on past behavior, the chance for a further drop in the coming days or weeks is high. That said, the last one (on Oct 2nd) didn’t pan out, with only a slightly lower intraday low the next day, before cruising into record highs after that.
SPX Closed
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 2nd 3115/3095 put spreads for .25. Sold Friday for .50.
Expiring: Dec 2nd 3165/3185 call spreads, sold Friday for .50
UVXY
#ShortCalls #BearCallSpreads – Stopped out of a few for profits. Looking to add a little higher now…
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 13 2019 20.0 Calls @ .46 (sold for .72)
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 20 2019 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .24 (sold for .86)
UVXY Jan call spread
Sold $UVXY 1/17/20 20/25 bear call spread @ .59
#earnings #closing DE ADSK #shortstrangles…
#earnings #closing DE ADSK
#shortstrangles #doublecalendar
DE Nov. 26, sold a Dec. 20 160/195 strangle for 1.34, bought Nov. 29 for .80
ADSK Nov. 26 bought a Dec. 6/Dec. 13 170 double calendar for .48. Nov. 29 sold for 1.04
Thanks to Jeff for the data
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The intraday $VIX spike has canceled the Upside Warning, which had been in effect since Oct 16th.
#shortcalls DE Sold Dec. 20,…
#shortcalls DE
Sold Dec. 20, 172.50 call for 1.06
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 9th 3000/3025-3190/3215 condors for 1.70, IV 11.65%, Exp move: +/-43.12, SPX 3134.
Haven’t done a multi-dayer in a few weeks, and I’m going with .06-.08 delta range.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/2/19
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Unsurprisingly, I got the intraday move exactly backwards. Was planning to sell call spread when index went higher, but instead I’m stuck selling it lower. Sold call side for .50, so now my trade for Monday is:
Sold $SPX Dec 2nd 3095/3115-3165/3185 condors for 1.00.
Expiring: Nov 29th 3135/3115 put spreads, sold Wednesday for .60.
NYSE Tick
TICK is not working today on TOS. Anyone else see this? Nothing after end of day Wednesday.
ROKU Rolled Covered Call
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 11/29 165 call and STO 12/6 167.50 call at 2.62 credit
LK Rolled Puts
#shortputs
$LK BTC 11/29 31.50 puts and STO 12/6 31.50 puts at added .77 credit
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 2nd 3115/3095 put spreads for .50, IV 6.19%, SPX 3147.
Will sell call side on a move higher.
Gartman
He is going to stop publishing his letter at the end of this year.We need to find another leading indicator.
Something that might stir up the markets a little…
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/27/trump-signs-bill-backing-hong-kong-protesters-into-law-in-spite-of-beijings-objections.html
SPX 1 DTE /
Happy Turkey to all!!
Happy Turkey to all!!
Happy Thanksgiving
Much friendship and wonderful advice is on this site. A tribute to the founder @jeffcp66.
You are all appreciated very much.
SPX roll
#SPX 1-dte . Buying to close $SPX Nov 29th 3165/3185 call spreads for .80. Condors sold for .85 this morning, so (hopefully) the .05 profit will cover commissions. If it doesn’t fill, I will have to up my bid.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open Nov 29th 3135/3115 put spreads for .60.
#spycraft The low volume march…
The low volume march to infinity has triggered my adjustment level so I closed the CCS side of the 12/13 318/322 for a 0.83 loss. I am hoping for a pull back on Monday when people return but hoping has never made me any money.
Left the put side open, will close when it is down to 0.05 then loss will only be 0.20.
Following the new rules I opened the PCS side for 12/20 at the 304/301 strikes for 0.24 credit. Will stay one sided until there is a definitive change/reversal.
A rapid flush down I would back ratio.
Happy Thanksgiving Bistro’ers!
DIS
STO January 17, 145 puts at 2.11
ADSK closed
#Earnings Sold to close $ADSK Nov29/Dec06 170 #DoubleCalendar for .92. Bought for .65 yesterday.
Started the morning nicely, but looks like a runner.
DE
BTC the put side of the strangle at .75 cents. I will let the December 20, 195 call just expire.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Nov 29th 3090/3110-3165/3185 condor for .85, IV 6.42%, SPX 3144.
Trying something different: selling in the morning so I can grab some premium before it evaporates. I don’t expect SPX to move too much in the next day and a half of holiday trading.
NUGT Puts Keep Rolling / BA ROKU Closed Early / TSLA BECS
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 11/29 28 puts and STO 12/6 28 puts for added .35 credit.
#bups
$BA BTC 12/20 315/325 BUPS at .20. STO at 2.25 on 10/30
$ROKU BTC 12/20 105/115 BUPS at .20. STO at 2.80 on 11/7
#becs
$TSLA STO 12/20 360/370 BECS at 1.70
No SPX
Not enough premium so I did not sell #SPX1dte.
VMW
#Earning Reverse IC expiration 11/29/2019
buy 177.5 call sell 182.5 call at 0.75 filled
buy 155 put sell 152.5 put at 0.50 but not filled yet changed to
buy 155 put sell 150 put at 0.85 filled
#fallingknife DLTR down 16%
#fallingknife
DLTR down 16%
ADSK dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $ADSK Nov29/Dec06 170 #DoubleCalendar for .65. Had the order on for a couple hours… just filled on one. As has been the case with these trades, they can fill slowly as we near the bell.
Lower probability as ADSK has moved on earnings a fair amount. But most recent quarters has below average moves.
VMW reports tonight
#Earnings $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 22, 2019 AC -9.94%
May 30, 2019 AC -11.53% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2019 AC +3.71%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14% Biggest UP
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%
Avg (+ or -) 4.79%
Bias -0.49%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 167.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 156.28 to 177.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.00 to 175.00
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-11.5%): 147.74 to 186.26
Based on UP max only (+6.1%): 177.25
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings DE Sold Dec. 20,…
#earnings DE
Sold Dec. 20, 160/195 strangle for 1.34.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
HD closed
#Earnings Sold $HD stock for 220.50.
Nov22/Nov29 237.5 #DoubleCalendar bought for .82 on monday Nov 18th
#Assignment on stock for 237.50 on the 21st
Sold Nov 29th long puts for 18.20 on the 21st
Sold stock today for 220.50
Profit on trade: +0.38
Trades can work even when they initially fail… if you can carry the stock and hold it through dips. Not advised during a correction but it worked in this environment.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 16, 2019 BO +3.84%
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65%Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.56%
Bias 2.04%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.40 to 185.60
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 169.41 to 185.59
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 157.90 to 197.10
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 163.92
Open to requests for other symbols.
#shortputs #coveredcalls TRTN Bought to…
#shortputs #coveredcalls TRTN
Bought to close aDec. 20, 35 put for .25, sold Nov. 21 for .50
Bought a March 20, 40 covered call for 36.93. If I hold it that long will pick up 2 .50 dividends. I may collar this but the only put volume in the next 3 months is the one I bought back.
Current stock price is 38.18.
FLT
Breaking out so STO 2, January 290 puts at 5.70 and BTO 1 contract of the 310 call at 7.90
PANW
STO January 200 puts at 1.55
ISRG
BTC December 20 505 put at .45 cents, sold at 4.40
Options Bistro 