SPX crosses above 50% of pull back
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AN ADD:
RAD BTO STOCK @17.02 I mentioned the other day, that RAD, on the Point & Figure Chart gave a Buy signal, soooo when it came back to 17.0 today I added. My other RAD stock is covering some short calls expiring this Friday.
ABBV
Sold ABBV 17 APR 20 80 PUT @1.55…if assigned div would yield 6%
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Added in my little tastyworks account…
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.50
SPLK Earnings
#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Thanks @thomberg1201 for the idea.
Sold SPLK MAR 13 2020 130.0/172.5 Strangle @ 3.00
#shortputs #shortputs AAL AMD OXY…
#shortputs #shortstrangles AAL AMD OXY
AAL sold April 17, 15 put for 1.13
OXY sold April 17, 30 put for 1.47
AMD sold April 17, 40/57.50 strangle for 2.99
#earnings #shortstrangles SPLK Sold March…
UVXY
Soon to be #CoveredCalls – Time to begin the aggressive call selling since stock assignment looks pretty sure now. A little early on these. Will roll to next week if needed but want the downside protection.
Sold UVXY MAR 6 2020 21.5 Calls @ 2.60
Yesterday on the spike:
Sold UVXY MAR 13 2020 22.0 Call @ 5.30
There is still a chance UVXY could rally and the 26.5 short puts don’t get exercised. To protect the calls I’ve only rolled in half my puts. I’ll roll the other half Friday at the close if needed to get stock.
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 21, 2019 AC +10.76%
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83% Biggest DOWN
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Avg (+ or -) 8.55%
Bias 3.31%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.06 to 164.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.18 to 162.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 123.17 to 176.84
Based on UP max only (-7.8%): 138.26
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte At 12:58 Pacific Time, sold $SPX March 4th 2830/2850-3140/3160 condors for 2.05. IV: 47.73%, SPX 3000, deltas: -.07, +.05
TQQQ
BTC the March 20, 115 calls at .07 cents. Sold at 1.13
UVXY
#ShortPuts – I don’t see the volatility going away any time soon. I rolled these out too soon so bringing them back in to either get lucky getting rid of them or taking stock and aggressively selling calls against it.
Rolled UVXY JUN 19 2020 19.0 Puts to UVXY MAR 6 2020 26.5 Puts @ .30 debit
Sold UVXY MAR 6 2020 35.0 Calls @ .32
Covers the cost of the roll and preserves the original premium in the put sales.
Episode 2 – High Fidelity
High Fidelity: from page, to film, to Hulu / John Cusack Top 5 / Parasite picked / Rock’n’Roll Hall of Fame inductees / New music picks / Old music pick / New picks from an old chick — Go to https://thepickcast.com for playlists and more info.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding…
Sold UVXY JAN 15 2021 30.0/40.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.85
TQQQ
BTC March 6, 110 calls at .02 cents, sold at .85
SPCE
#ShortPuts – Adding a couple…
Sold SPCE MAR 20 2020 20.0 Puts @ 1.05
SPY
#ShortPuts – Let’s see if we re-test the lows next week…
Sold SPY MAR 20 2020 285.0 Put @ 3.05
#shortputs #closing DAL bought April…
#shortputs #closing DAL
bought April 20, 40 put for 1.13, sold February 28 for 2.12.
Thanks 330nick for the idea
TRADE:
TLRY STO 3/6/20 15.0 CALLS @.40
#earnings #closing TGT Bought March…
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 26, 2019 BO -15.24% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -1.93%
May 30, 2019 BO +3.13%
March 6, 2019 BO +5.11%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13% Biggest UP
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54%
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Avg (+ or -) 7.08%
Bias -3.16%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 83.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.44 to 89.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 77.12 to 88.88
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 70.10 to 95.90
Based on UP max only (+6.1%): 88.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA up again
Maybe some calls sales today.
Tale of two scales
Since last week has been called the worst week since 2008, I thought I would compare the charts from the two.
The first comparison is between the two weeks with the bars on each scaled to match SPX point moves (not percentage). 2008 is on the left, 2020 on the right:
The second resizes the 2020 week so that the scales match on a percentage basis. 2020 is on the left, 2008 on the right:
As you can see, the moves in 2008 were bigger on a percentage basis, while last week was bigger on a point basis.
In 2008, the first huge up day was nowhere near the bottom, which didn’t happen for another five months.
SPY
#CoveredCalls – One small roll still playing with the super short term expirations. Picking up 1.35 of upside for two more days.
Rolled SPY MAR 02 2020 290.0 Call to MAR 04 2020 291.0 Call @ .35 credit.
VIX is down 8, but…
VIX is down 8, but /VX is unchanged.
Is that because of the backwardation?
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX March 2nd 2600/2625-3100/3125 condors, sold Friday for 2.05.
#earnings #closing SQ Feb. 26,…
DRIP roll
With this thing now back out of the money but showing strength, I rolled 3/20 186 calls out to 4/17 200 calls @ 4.90 credit. Buys me some breathing room (another 14 points out of the money plus the premium) but the way this thing moves I think I’m going to need a multi-day rally in oil to get an acceptable score on the dismount.
TGT earnings analysis
#Earnings $TGT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 20, 2019 BO +14.05%
Aug. 21, 2019 BO +20.42% Biggest UP
May 22, 2019 BO +7.78%
March 5, 2019 BO +4.58%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -11.26%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +3.20%
May 23, 2018 BO -5.69%
March 6, 2018 BO -4.45%
Nov. 15, 2017 BO -9.86%
Aug. 16, 2017 BO +3.60%
May 17, 2017 BO +0.93%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 8.17%
Bias 0.93%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 107.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 99.01 to 115.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 98.72 to 116.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.4%): 85.55 to 129.45
Based on DOWN max only (-12.2%): 94.43
NOTE: Five-day MAX moves are +21.00% and -13.39%
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings TGT Sold March 20…
#earnings TGT
Sold March 20 95/120 strangle for 2.51.
#shortputspread DIS Sold April 17,…
#shortputspread DIS
Sold April 17, 100/110 put spread for 1.57.
KSS earnings analysis
#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -19.48% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33%
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%
May 11, 2017 BO -7.83%
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -2.08%
Avg (+ or -) 7.17%
Bias -5.51%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.63 to 41.37
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 35.28 to 40.72
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.5%): 30.60 to 45.40
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 40.78
NOTE: Five-day MAX moves are +4.81% and -19.52%
Open to requests for other symbols.
FB put spread
Sold $FB 4/17 180/170 bull put spread for 1.95 with the stock between 193-194. Short strike below Friday’s low, at 27 delta.
#earnings Jeff do you have…
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 10, 2019 BO +6.92% Biggest UP
Sept. 24, 2019 BO -4.41%
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74%
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Avg (+ or -) 5.76%
Bias -1.63%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1030.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 951.27 to 1108.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 970.71 to 1089.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 908.05 to 1151.95
Based on UP max only (+6.9%): 1101.28
NOTE: Five-day MAX moves are +7.60% and -9.93%
Open to requests for other symbols.
Whiz emergency Sunday brief
I know it’s a lot of bluster and some bullshit but he got this move right. If you want to skip that and go straight to his outlook start at 8:50 mark. Interesting take on what some worse case scenarios could be…
UVXY VIX Partial Closed
#longcalls
$UVXY STC 3/20 35 call at 2.40 BTO at .30 Thank you @jeff
#bucs
$VIX STC 3/18 17/22 BUCS at 4.10 BTO 1/10 at .81 Thank you @fuzzball
#bups
$VIX BTC 3/18 13/15 BUPS at .04 STO 1/10 at .89 Thank you @fuzzball
Tracking the Virus
https://bit.ly/3cedEdn
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 2nd 2600/2625-3100/3125 condors for 2.05. IV: 50%, SPX 2827, deltas: -.05, +.07. Width: 375
That’s the best premium I have gotten in 14 months of this strategy, and the shorts were -10.3% and +5.9% OTM, when the trade filled. But 3 minutes later at the close, that shifted to -11.1% and +4.9%.
SPX 57% Vol
#SPX1dte Monday’s expiration is off-the-charts volatility. I’m going to be able to sell a condor that has short puts at 2570 or lower, or 11.4% OTM, and still get excellent premium. Pulling the trigger before the close.
SPCE
Original trade:
#BullPutSpreads #Earnings – Selling slightly in the money. If I get lucky and the stock goes up it’ll be a nice winner. On the other hand, no matter how far it drops I’ll own stock about 1.70 below my basis which can be more than made up in one week of call selling with the extreme premium on this thing.
Sold SPCE FEB 28 2020 41.0/36.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 3.30
So…closing the long puts for the gains and letting the shorts get exercised. Non taxable account so selling the covered calls early using spreads. Yesterday bought puts to protect the position from anything crazy. Selling aggressively to reduce basis as quickly as possible during this high volatility.
Sold to Close SPCE FEB 28 2020 36.0 Puts @ 12.40
Sold SPCE MAR 6 2020 22.0/52.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 3.70
Bought 7x size SPCE JUL 17 2020 5.0 Puts @ .10
All said and done own the stock at 21.60 basis covered at 22 next week….whew!
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 28th 2850/2830 put spreads for .60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.45.
Not sure if I’ll be selling one tonight, but if I do, I am waiting until a minute before the close, or right after the close. After yesterday’s last-minute dive, I ain’t risking it.
Anyone else having issues with…
Anyone else having issues with the site? Used to once I was logged in, I was in for weeks. In the last few days it’s kicking me out and making me login every time I close the window for some reason.
DAL #shortput
STO DAL Apr17 40 put for 1.83 for an IRA. IVR is 93. If assigned at this level, the div. yield would be 4%.
SPY
#CoveredCalls – Added a few shares overnight, pre-market, and now to get up to 100 so I can play with some calls.
Bought stock gradually at 295.10 average. Selling Monday’s call at breakeven. If it gets taken out I’m fine with that. Should be an easy roll in this environment.
Sold SPY MAR 02 2020 290.0 Call @ 5.30
#coveredcalls GPRO Sold a March…
#coveredcalls GPRO
Sold a March 20, 4 call for .25. GPRO is up today, I have assigned shares from a long time ago.
TQQQ
STO April 17, 45 puts at 2.90
STO April 17, 40 puts at 2.05, scaling in small positions.
SPY
About to take out the 100 week moving average? Next one after that is the 200 week at 263.
Amazing…
Futures Looks that the difference…
Futures
Looks that the difference between futures and DOW is quite pronounced, futures are down less then the Dow. Is that an indication for anything?
2% gap open again
Following up to my posts on Monday and Tuesday, the open price of $SPX this morning was -2.08%. So the second time that’s happened this week, and since 2014.
VIX
The VIX is tagging the 3 standard dev. upper BB on its daily chart, which is typically where it needs to be for us to get a market bounce. Also there is an ongoing negative divergence with the 5,3,3 stochastic in 1 hour VIX chart. With this setup, most of the time the market bottom is signaled after the first indication of negative divergence. Rarely, it takes a 2nd or 3rd indication to signal a short term market bottom. Looks like we will need a 3rd wave. I hope the chart snippet of the 1 hour VIX chart will clarify my description.
Ending reading for T2108
9.35
The lowest since the Q4 2018 selloff, then before that, Feb 2018. Before that you have to go back to Jan 2016 to get readings under 10.
Fun stats for today
Largest Dow point-drop in history: -1,190.95 (-4.42%)
Largest S&P point-drop in history -137.63 (-4.42%) (exact same percentage as Dow)
Worst S&P day since August 2011 (percentage basis)
Fastest correction (down 10%) in entire history of stock market.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – New position in these strikes…
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 30.0/40.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.54
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte . Sold $SPX Feb 28th 2830/2850-3120/3140 condors for 1.45. IV: 41.97%, SPX 3013, deltas: -.06, .06.
Width: 270 points
#putratiospread AAL Sold April 17,…
#putratiospread AAL
Sold April 17, -20/-20/+22 ratio put spread for .83
TQQQ
STO April 17, 55/105 strangle at 4.45
#ironcondor QQQ Sold April 17,…
#ironcondor QQQ
Sold April 17, 175/185/225/235 for 3.10
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – In a little tastyworks account I rarely look at. Set it and forget it until UVXY gets back near lifetime lows.
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2021 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.40
Direxion
VIX spread closed
Sold to close $VIX March 17th 17/20 call spread for 2.21. Bought for .52 on Jan 15th. Max possible on this is 3.00, so I’ll take this now, as the risk of going to zero is bigger than the additional .79 I might gain.
TLT call spread
Sold $TLT 3/20 152/157 bear call spread @ 1.36 with TLT at 151.06
VXX long put spread
With the VIX so extended, taking a small position in the other direction. Bought $VXX 3/20 21/17 bear put spread for 1.80 debit.
UVXY adding
#VXXGame Earlier, sold $UVXY Apr 17th 19 call for 4.65. Adding to the position. Number of shorts in VXXGame is still about one-third number of longs.
#shortputs TRTN Sold April 17,…
#shortputs TRTN
Sold April 17, 30 put for .75
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Forgot I had these in. Filled at the open.
Sold UVXY APR 17 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.04 average
SPXL
Taking a small flyer, BTO March 20, 56/60 bull call spread at 2.00 for a small trade.
#contangoetfs #shortcallspreads UVXY Sold April…
#contangoetfs #shortcallspreads UVXY
Sold April 17, 25/35 for 1.68
T2108
Now at 11.34
SPY
#Stock – Instead of selling any more puts in this (or anything else) I’m spreading some dollars out into SPY stock. Buying a few shares every 5 point drop to get into a longer term average position.
Bought SPY stock @ 304.00
UVXY
BTC 25/35 bear call spread at 1.80 and sold at 1.10 so took a small loss.
ROKU
#ShortStrangles – Going inverted on my 120/130 strangle by 5 points but premium received is greater than that so no upside risk.
Rolled ROKU MAR 20 2020 130.0 Call to MAR 20 2020 115.0 Call @ 3.50 credit (10.75 total now)
DRIPped out
Unfortunately I’m going to have to dump out of $DRIP short calls. They are my only positions going against me badly, since I have long options hedging my $UVXY and $VXX shorts.
We are poised now to see the worst week in the market since the financial crisis. Even in best case scenarios with corona virus, it’s likely to scare the markets for a few more weeks. What this will do to $XOP is uncertain. But since yesterday’s close we are going to open 4.4% lower. This means DRIP must open (x3) 13.2% higher. So a .70 drop in XOP means at least a $21.00 rise in DRIP.
Frankly, most of my accounts can’t handle it, and I need the margin to sustain and place other positions. I will try to profit from DRIP’s eventual decline, but I’ll have to wait until it’s actually underway. Fortunately, I didn’t go nuts and only have 3 calls on two accounts, and 2 calls in a third account. I kept my smallest accounts out of it completely.
Other than a couple misadventures over the years, one in $KOLD and a couple in $NUGT, the #ContangoETFs strategy provides a pretty smooth income. But these outlier moves are too damaging, so I’m going to cease the naked calls and use diagonals or spreads, like many of have switched to in #VXXGame and many of you are already doing in DRIP.
Daily AT40 (T2108) is below…
Daily AT40 (T2108) is below 20%
Closing NUGT, SPXpire
#ContangoETFs . I am closing $NUGT at breakeven because I think chances are it will still go higher and I don’t want to get into another $DRIP situation right now.
BTC NUGT June 47 calls for 3.75. Sold for 3.80 on Dec 24.
BTC NUGT Sep 52 calls for 4.75. Sold for 4.80 on Feb 21.
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Feb 26th 2970/2990-3220/3240 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
