STO January 17, 35 puts at 1.05
Recent Updates Page 229
GNRC
STO January 17, 90 puts at 1.10
ADSK earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADSK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 27, 2019 AC -6.74%
May 23, 2019 AC -4.90%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -1.98%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +9.74%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +15.32% Biggest UP
May 24, 2018 AC -4.44%
March 6, 2018 AC +14.87%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -15.85% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +3.94%
May 18, 2017 AC +14.69%
March 2, 2017 AC -2.29%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC -3.52%
Avg (+ or -) 8.19%
Bias 1.57%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 156.50 to 183.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 156.08 to 183.92
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 143.06 to 196.95
Based on UP max only (+15.3%): 196.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
BBY closed
#Earnings Sold ro close $BBY Nov29/Dec06 74 #DoubleCalendar for .30. Bought yesterday for .54. My bad streak on earnings continues, but not painful today.
PANW
#ShortPuts – A little early on this. Selling just below the 50ma and 200ma support. Let’s see if it holds…
Sold PANW DEC 20 2019 220.0 Put @ 3.50
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Bought to Close UVXY DEC 6 2019 24.0 Calls @ .04 (sold for .70)
ANF closed
#Earnings Sold to close $ANF Nov 29th 16/16.5 strangles for .926. Bought yesterday for 1.99.
Didn’t get the move so worked aggressively to unload at the open when volatility still high, rather than wait to see if the stock will move enough to become profitable.
The move came in BBY, which is where I didn’t want it.
Holiday schedule
Stock market open full day Wednesday, closed Thursday, then half-day Friday (closes at 1pm ET).
#spycraft v 6.1 12/13 291/295…
#spycraft v 6.1 12/13 291/295 and 318/322 IC
Have not added any the last 2 weeks. I am trying a full cycle before adding additional spreads. But what I have so far has proven what almost always happens with these. They are challenged in 1 direction only, in this case the upside. I have a profit but negligible ($49 on a 5 lot vs. 315 at expiration). The short strike is 318 for the 12/13 expiration.
So this is the decision point. Do I close the short calls and leave the puts open? Do I back ratio? Do I butterfly and cap losses to the upside? Or do I just sit on my hands and see if we eventually stay in the range and close for near full profit.
Here is my thought process. We can certainly keep grinding higher but if I back ratio and it stalls or reverses I basically lock in a loss at that point. If I close I lose on the calls but still have the puts making a few extra $. If I butterfly same as the back ratio, basically lock in a loss to one side.
So since I have not breached the short strike I will let it sit and decay and hope for flat or a little pull back. Then might be able to close early for a small profit.
But additional rules to putting these on, I will start them only one sided, then add the other side only at a definitive reversal. In the indexes the credit is generally higher on the put side and father OTM as well. That is something that has been persistent since 1987 black Monday (or was it Friday?). So there is more room and time to adjust to the put side anyway. Plus the market goes down faster than up so at that point a back ratio would make sense and likely give you a nice directional pop to the account.
Also will probably be going shorter time frame, looks like 10-21 DTE may be ideal as opposed to 28-45 DTE. I know the TT research shows 45 DTE ideal and it seems to be for naked options. But with spreads the decay is soooooooo slow it gives the market too much time to move.
Will update if I do anything or if it expires. Then will try the ladder one sided and will post as I open/close.
Anyone else has any ideas feel free to share? I know these can work, the math and probabilities are there, just need to avoid the big losses or convert losing trades to winners or flat.
ULTA
#CoveredCalls – A couple more. One closed and one stopped out. Earnings next week…
Bought to Close ULTA NOV 29 2019 242.5 Call @ .15 (sold for 2.00)
Bought to Close ULTA NOV 29 2019 232.5 Call @ 2.00 (sold for 2.40)
NUGT closed
#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Jan 17th 40 call for .25. Sold for 2.10 on March 25th. Not sure if that long wait was worth it. Now flat in NUGT.
BBY dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $BBY Nov29/Dec06 74 #DoubleCalendar for .50. Partial fill so far, not raising my price.
FLT
STO January 290 put at 5.70,
This is an idea from SMM.
#earnings #doublecalendar BBY Sold a…
Sold a Dec. 6/Dec. 13 73.50 double calendar for .44
ANF earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -15.09%
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Avg (+ or -) 16.52%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.95 to 18.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.44 to 18.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 11.84 to 20.36
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 19.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
BBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -7.98%
May 23, 2019 BO -4.84%
Feb. 27, 2019 BO +14.11%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO +2.13%
Aug. 28, 2018 BO -5.00%
May 24, 2018 BO -6.64%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.94%
Nov. 16, 2017 BO -3.57%
Aug. 29, 2017 BO -11.92% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 BO +21.47% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 BO -4.50%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.69%
Avg (+ or -) 8.32%
Bias 0.91%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 74.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 68.87 to 79.13
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 67.85 to 80.15
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.5%): 58.11 to 89.89
Based on DOWN max only (-11.9%): 65.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 4, 2019 AC +5.76%
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Avg (+ or -) 8.07%
Bias 0.61%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 234.96 to 265.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 229.82 to 270.18
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 189.63 to 310.38
Based on UP max only (+17.2%): 293.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 25th 3130 calls for 1.85. Condors sold Friday for .85.
NOW
BTC $NOW 20-Dec 230/240 #BuPS @0.25. STO 8/15, with multiple adjustments. 5.53 loss.
CMG
BTC $CMG Nov 29 740/750 #BuPS @0.15. Was STO 11/22 @1.2.
Keeping an eye on Call side ($CMG Nov 29 795/805).
LABU
#CoveredCalls – Last 100 shares that I had been working with got called away early over the weekend at below my cost basis. Was hoping for a down move this morning to get back in but since nothing ever goes down anymore I’ll sell based on the breakout above the 200ma.
Stock called away at 35.50 (basis 46.50)
100 shares called away and selling two puts to possibly get the stock back. If not, keep selling the puts.
Sold LABU DEC 20 2019 47.5 Puts @ 2.20
ULTA
#CoveredCalls – This week’s double sales look safe so starting the earnings position a little early. I’ll adjust it down next week if needed.
Sold ULTA DEC 6 2019 240.0 Call @ 5.11
UVXY
#ShortPuts #ShortCalls #BearCallSpreads – Making some adjustments. Rolling short puts out and down and selling hard against them. If we get close to another reverse split I’ll roll ’em out to 2022 and sell against them for a couple years.
Shorter term:
Bought to Close UVXY NOV 29 2019 20.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .70)
Sold UVXY DEC 13 2019 17.0 Calls @ .67
Longer term:
Rolled UVXY DEC 20 2019 25.0 Puts to MAR 20 2020 23.0 Puts @ .11 debit
Rolled UVXY DEC 20 2019 23.0 Puts to MAR 20 2020 21.0 Puts @ .12 credit
Sold UVXY MAR 20 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.17 to finance the next big roll if needed.
Final VXX closed
#VXXgame Sold to close $VXX Jan 17th 20 puts for 4.00. Bought between Jan 22 and Aug 27 for avg price of 1.30. Sold four batches so far at 2.65, 3.00, 3.25, 3.50, and 4.00.
My research over the history of VXX and UVXY show that this trade usually works. Of course, the first year I had a robust position (last year), it failed as the market went straight down from September until Dec 24th. But glad it worked out this time.
On next pullback I will start buying VXX and UVXY 20 puts to sell next fall. A reverse split will really help this work better, but not sure if we’ll get low enough before a pullback comes.
Calendar bust
#Earnings Been striking out on recent #DoubleCalendar trades…
Paid .01 to close put calendar on $INTU, bought yesterday for 1.35. This one is a disappointment as it is more expensive than most of these trades, and these higher priced stocks rarely result in a full loss. The morning looked promising but it spent the whole day sinking. It does, however, have a better chance than most of producing some return on the long 272.5 long call lottery ticket next week.
$HD, sold the long puts yesterday, expecting some bounce, but it fell further. So holding the stock for next week.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3055/3075-3130/3150 condors for .85, IV: 5.90%, SPX: 3108.
Expiring: Nov 22nd 3060/3070-3130/3140, sold yesterday for .45.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/25/19
#GDP numbers on Wednesday morning
Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=25&month=11&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
PTON / SPLK
OX $PTON 11/22 27p #Shortputs
STO $PTON 11/29 27.5p @.35 #Shortputs Replacing above. Looking to add to long stock
OX $SPLK 11/22 105/115 #BuPS STO 11/21 @1.05 – Thanks for info/idea @Jeff and @Fuzzball #Earnings
#shortstrangles #shortstraddles ROST LB #tastytradefollow…
#shortstrangles #shortstraddles ROST LB
#tastytradefollow
ROST sold Jan. 17, 100/115 for 2.40
JWN sold Jan. 17, 32.50/40 for 2.19
LB sold Jan. 17, 17.50 straddle for 2.65
ROKU put spread
Sold $ROKU 12/20 145/135 bull put spread @ 2.45. Delta of short puts 28.
ROKU Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 11/22 162.5 calls at .29 STO at 2.10 and STO 11/29 165 calls for 2.49.
ZM Puts Rolled / PLAN Put / Closed TWTR Put / SPLK YES!
#shortputs
$ZM BTC 12/6 72 call and STO 12/27 73 call at .30 added credit. Rolled three times at 1.95 credit and gained $4.5
if called away. Stock upgraded by somebody with $90 target today.
$PLAN STO 12/20 50 put at 1.75. Part of Covered strangle with 55 call
$TWTR BTC 11/22 32 put at 2.10. STO at 2.81
#earnings
Expire today
$SPLK 115 put STO at 1.25. Thank you @fuzzballl
SQ
#CoveredCalls – An old busted earnings trade almost back to even…
Rolled SQ NOV 22 2019 63.5 Calls to DEC 13 2019 64.5 Calls @ even
SHOP
#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – Trading profitable stock for a short put. Gets the cash back into the sweep account to draw a tiny bit of interest (around 1.6% for now).
Stock will be called away @ 297.50 (basis 294.85)
Sold SHOP DEC 20 2019 280.0 Put @ 3.90 (selling below the 200ma and below recent lows)
SPLK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Another big up move on a Lizard. No harm no foul. Little dip right at the open got me out of the call spread for 1.75. Already up to 2.00 now.
Bought to Close SPLK NOV 22 2019 115.0/127.0/129.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.78 (sold for 2.16)
Charles Schwab in advanced talks to buy TD Ameritrade: source – Reuters
Charles Schwab Corp is in advanced talks to acquire TD Ameritrade Holding Corp , a person familiar with the matter said on Thursday, in a deal that could exceed $26 billion and combine the two largest U.S. discount brokerages.
— Read on www.reuters.com/article/us-td-ameritrade-m-a-charles-schwab-idUSKBN1XV16S
HD assignment
#Earnings I was assigned $HD shares at 237.50 last night. Today, I sold the Nov 29th long 237.5 puts for 18.20. Plan to sell the stock on next move higher… hopefully for about 220.00 which would make the trade almost break-even.
Original trade: $HD Nov22/Nov29 237.5 #DoubleCalendar for .82 on Monday.
Looks like the INTU trade has a better chance of working.
CMG
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3060/3070-3130/3140 condors for .45. Ten-wide, double-sized position.
IV: 8.80%, SPX 3106
#shortputs TRTN Sold a Dec….
#shortputs TRTN
Sold a Dec. 20, 35 put for .50.
ULTA
#CoveredCalls – Bought to Close ULTA NOV 22 2019 247.5 Call @ .05 (sold for 2.35)
CRM Short
Did anyone catch Benioff’s interview two nights ago w/ Cramer? I found it troubling. I’ve always been a Benioff fan, but I’m seeing that he’s maybe losing focus. He spotlighted a stupid “Einstein Doll” that is supposed to talk and answer questions “you can buy it on Amazon”….huh? The doll didn’t work, it was an awkward moment. He seems to be losing touch w/ any kind of shareholder focus. I put a short on yesterday by selling shares and buying a protective call. I sold shares at 163.25, the call was an expensive January 165, so I need a sharp move down to make money, but it was in the 140’s not too long ago. Earnings coming up. Curious if anyone else saw it, if it hit you differently.
Sue
#longcalls TWTR is squeezing here…
#longcalls TWTR is squeezing here and starting to climb out after a month long beating. Long Jan 30 Calls @ 1.69 as a spec position.
SPLK Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – I’ll take a shot just outside the expected move down below the 200ma and 50ma near recent lows.
Sold SPLK NOV 22 2019 115.0 Puts @ 1.25
#SueCollar new TGT I needed…
#SueCollar new TGT
I needed a new position in one of my accounts and went back to the well on TGT. The vols and spreads are bumping around big time this morning on TGT, I probably should have waited before locking this in. But I saw favorable vol spreads so grabbed it. Jan 3rd opened up on TGT, but the spreads and liquidity were really poor, so I went with a Dec 27/Dec 13 starting setup.
I’m spending a lot of time now looking at the volatilities on the chain for the setup, and comparing them to realized volatility. The most expensive part of this strategy is buying puts, if you can buy puts “cheap” relative to realized volatility it should help the overall success (that’s also why I’m now comparing put vol to the call vol being sold–trying to eek out a bit more edge). As you know, OTM puts have a higher volatility, and that vol drops as you approach ATM. It’s typically opposite on the call side of the chain (except for tickers with upside danger like Vix and Gold)–ITM calls have a higher vol than OTM calls. It dawned on me recently that tightening the vol spread between the short call/long put strikes would further tighten risk on these. It does in fact lower the delta even more, which is great risk control, but further restrains the upside in grind-or-melt up conditions. That’s the trade off. I’m looking to keep the vol spread now at 3 or less points. The put buy continues to be a balancing act though between volatility and price….since in normal market conditions it’s throw-away insurance. So I don’t want to overpay on price just to get a lower volatility.
If you use TOS, you’ll see the option chain has a different vol than the analyze tab. I keep wanting to ask the trade desk for an explanation on that, but I’ve chosen to use the analyze tab volatility for my record keeping.
TGT Entry: Starting P/L in this account for TGT is zero
BOT 300 shares @ 127.08
BOT 3 Dec 13 121 put @ .95, at the time of purchase vol was 22.37%, 90-day realized vol is 43.1%
SOLD 3 Dec 12 126 call @ 4.00, vol was 24.16%
This was a vol inversion that I grabbed, usually the put vol is higher than the call vol
You can see I’ve sold well in the money calls to get a higher volatility.
Max risk at the onset is $909.00
ISRG
#ShortPuts – Back in this one selling outside the expected move. Below the 50ma and right at the 200ma.
Sold ISRG DEC 20 2019 530.0 Put @ 3.80
INTU earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 22, 2019 AC +1.09%
May 23, 2019 AC +6.70%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Avg (+ or -) 3.51%
Bias 2.19%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 272.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 262.33 to 282.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 262.95 to 282.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 254.08 to 290.92
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 262.17
Open to requests for other symbols.
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Back in one of my favorites. Selling well below the 50ma and down near the 200ma. Just going 29 days out…
Sold SOXL DEC 20 2019 165.0 Put @ 3.00
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83% Biggest DOWN
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Avg (+ or -) 7.69%
Bias 2.44%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 127.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.04 to 136.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 117.24 to 136.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 104.28 to 149.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 117.06
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTES Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Booking now and not taking any chances…
Bought to Close NTES NOV 22 2019 267.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 3.20)
TGT Closed
#SueCollar TGT One of the…
#SueCollar TGT
One of the collars I had set up was on TGT, which of course had earnings today. The original stock purchase was at $111.84, and after a roll last week, was protected down to around $96. It’s really run away to the upside. There is plenty of premium in the position still, especially since the Dec13 short 96 puts have become very illiquid. It looks to me that the 300 share position will net out around $503 in profit (including the dividend) by the Dec 13 expiration, a hold of about 2 months. This would equate to roughly an 8% annualized return….right in my target. The ROR is huge given the risk controls in this strategy.
A couple comments on this:
1. TGT is an interesting hold for this strategy due to their dividend timing. Since the ex div is the day before earnings, it is really hard to lose shares to someone wanting to take the dividend—since the short calls retain such high premium the day before earnings.
2. This is a perfect example of having to stay focused on a low-risk/low-return strategy. If the loss of the put premium is too much to bear, it’s the wrong strategy for you (you might be saying “coulda woulda shoulda made $4600 just holding shares vs $503 on the collar”). I get it, it’s valid. But I really appreciate the controlled risk on these things, the easy sleep at night.
On a side note, since I’ve been training intensely on vol for a couple years at Option Pit, I decided there needs to be more vol strategy folded into the collars. I’m now trying to keep the vol spread at less than 3 points between the calls being sold and the puts being bought. To accomplish this the calls need to be sold ITM, vs ATM. ITM calls have a higher vol to counter the higher vol of OTM puts.
Let me know if there’s any interest in this going forward–I get if it’s too boring 🙂
Sue
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX Nov 20th 3095/3075 put spreads for 1.60. Condors sold yesterday for .95. Fortunately got a bounce from the lows, but not risking another plunge.
I will let call side expire.
#earnings #jadelizard M Sold Dec….
Sold Dec. 20, 15/15.50/16.50 for 1.15.
I’m long 105 shares from assignment a long time ago with a cost basis in the 30s. Will add a couple long puts to protect that horrid position.
SPX BuPS Stopped on breach…
SPX BuPS Stopped on breach of 3095. Ouch. I sure seem able to NOT pick ’em.
Trade again
I think these two tweets together sum up the ridiculousness of trading off trade-deal headlines.
M earnings analysis
#Earnings $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 14, 2019 BO -13.22%
May 15, 2019 BO -0.45%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%
Avg (+ or -) 8.03%
Bias -2.64%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 15.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.39 to 17.01
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.98 to 16.42
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.0%): 12.62 to 17.78
Based on UP max only (+11.0%): 16.87
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTES earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26%
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%
Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias -0.53%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 287.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 266.37 to 308.63
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.89 to 310.11
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 247.02 to 327.98
Based on DOWN max only (-11.0%): 255.99
Open to requests for other symbols.
#callratiospread ROKU #tastytradefollow Sold a…
#callratiospread ROKU
#tastytradefollow Sold a Dec. 20, +180/-195/-195 ratio spread for .26.
ULTA
#CoveredCalls – This week looks safe so throwing next week out there. Earnings the following week.
Sold ULTA NOV 29 2019 242.5 Call @ 2.00
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Adding one more…
Sold DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.60
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Adding at a slightly higher strike from my starter position…
Sold EWZ DEC 20 2019 40.5 Puts @ .93
Closing TGT
With earnings tomorrow morning, I took a small profit on the $TGT 12/20 105/100 bull put spread. Bought to close @ 1.19. Sold for 1.46 on 11/4.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 20th 3075/3095-3140/3160 condors for .95, IV: 7.44%, SPX 3124.
XBI
#ShortPuts – Not a single chance to add beyond the starter position. Almost straight up since the sale…
Bought to Close XBI DEC 20 2019 75.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 1.93)
EXAS
BTO January 17, 85/97.5 call spread at 4.30
STO January 17, 75 puts at 2.60
#earnings #closing QCOM Nov. 6…
TGT earnings analysis
#Earnings $TGT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 21, 2019 BO +20.42% Biggest UP
May 22, 2019 BO +7.78%
March 5, 2019 BO +4.58%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -11.26%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +3.20%
May 23, 2018 BO -5.69%
March 6, 2018 BO -4.45%
Nov. 15, 2017 BO -9.86%
Aug. 16, 2017 BO +3.60%
May 17, 2017 BO +0.93%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2016 BO +6.42%
Avg (+ or -) 7.53%
Bias 0.29%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 102.31 to 117.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 101.72 to 118.28
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.4%): 87.54 to 132.46
Based on UP max only (-12.2%): 96.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTES Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Earnings not until tomorrow night but with a little pullback today setting my position now. Selling well below the 50ma and close to the 200ma.
Sold NTES NOV 22 2019 267.5 Put @ 3.20
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Adding to previous sale…
Sold DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.40
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Easing back into this one with a small starter…
Sold DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.20
LK and SBUX
I am puting on another small arbitrage.
LK, BTO 28.50 cals @ 2.10 for December 20 and SBUX, BTO the 84 puts at 1.65 for about the same dollar amount. LK is the new coffee shop in China and the chart on SBUX has turned down with the 10,20,and 50 below the 150.
Closed CMG
Just catching up on trades. Filled on this closing order: Bought to close $CMG 12/20 700/690 bull put spread @ .79. Sold for 1.80 on 11/11.
Adding more VIX
#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX Feb 18th 19/22 call spreads for .60. Added to the Jan 21st 17/20 already holding.
FB
BTO December 20, 200/210 bull call spread at 3.30 and sold the December 27, 190 put at 2.86
Options Bistro 