#earnings ZM
Sold Sept. 20 #jadelizard for.3.38, 85/93.50/94
Bought Sept. 1370/80 long put spread for 1.20
Recent Updates Page 239
Low VIX today, Jobs Report tomorrow
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 6th 2910/2930-3015/3045 condors for .85 and .90. IV 12.58%, SPX 2980
#shortputs WORK Sold Sept. 20,…
#shortputs WORK
Sold Sept. 20, 29 put for .95
SPX 1dte
Options Trade expiration 9-6-19
SPX bull put credit, sell 2920 put, buy 2900 put, premium=0.35
SPX bull put credit, sell 2930 put, buy 2915 put, premium=0.45
AMZN bull put credit, sell 1800 put, buy 1795 put, premium=0.20-0.25
GOOGL bull put credit, sell 1185 put, buy 1180 put, premium=0.20
SPX spread stopping
#SPX1dte Today’s rally already blew past my stop for the call side of the $SPX Sep 11th 2825/2845-2995/3015 condor, sold yesterday for 2.20. I closed the put spread for .20 and looking to close the call side (at a loss) before the close.
Posted this as a comment…
#earnings LULU Sold Sept. 20,…
#earnings LULU
Sold Sept. 20, 170/187.50/190 jade lizard for 4.85
Bought Sept. 13, 155/167.50 for 1.90 for protection on the downside.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
NVDA
BTC $NVDA 140/150 #BuPS @0.12. Was STO 8/27 @1.37.
ROKU call spread
Coming off its all time high yesterday, down today in a strong market. Sold $ROKU 9/20 170/180 bear call spread @ 2.80.
#closing OXY Aug. 21 sold…
#closing OXY
Aug. 21 sold a #jadelizard for 1.38, bought today for .83
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
Avg (+ or -) 11.86%
Bias 3.97%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 185.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 167.54 to 202.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 163.05 to 206.95
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 141.65 to 228.35
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 215.17
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1dte stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Sept 4th 2935 calls for 2.50, a couple minutes before the close. Condors sold for 1.60 yesterday.
Also, after the bell: Sold $SPX Sept 11th 2825/2845-2995/3015 condors for 2.20.
Closing some pre-split DRIP
Back in May, before the 1:5 reverse split I sold some Sep 105 calls (which are now DRIP1 9/20 21 calls). Bought to close @ 1.50 (the lot that I sold for 2.20). Still sitting on some that I sold for 1.55. Another down move in the next couple days and I’ll take that off too.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
Avg (+ or -) 8.19%
Bias -0.47%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 200.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 184.58 to 215.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 183.62 to 216.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 151.70 to 248.30
Based on UP max only (+17.2%): 234.40
Open to requests for other symbols.
#longstock VET Bought 100 shares…
#longstock VET
Bought 100 shares of VET for 14.53, yielding 14%, beaten up oil stock.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288773-monthly-dividends-14-percent-yield-vermilion-energy-unique-opportunity?ifp=0
KHC
#ShortPuts – Losing interest in this one so getting out with tiny winner.
Bought to Close KHC SEP 06 2019 26.5 Puts @ .64 (sold for .70)
REGN ULTA
#CoveredCalls – Trading from the southeast corner of Lake Okeechobee. One of my stranger places for this. 🙂 🙂
REGN:
Bought to Close REGN SEP 06 2019 302.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 4.90)
Sold REGN SEP 20 2019 292.5 Call @ 4.90
ULTA: Doubling up on the sales with a stop on the last one.
Sold ULTA SEP 20 2019 250.0 Call @ 3.00
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 4th 2825/2845-2935/2955 condors for 1.60. IV: 15.90%, SPX 2899.
Expiring: Sept 3rd 2820/2840-2975/2995 condors, sold Friday for 1.60.
#shortputs TRTN Sold Sept.20, 30…
#shortputs TRTN
Sold Sept.20, 30 put for .50
#earnings #rolling SPLK August 21,…
OSTK
Expired (Friday) – $OSTK 17.5 8/30/2019 Calls, covered.
STO $OSTK 16.5 9/6/2019 calls (covered) @ 0.60. Basis now 15.85.
ULTA
STO September 20, 260 covered call at 2.10
STX TNA ULTA
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Was busy all day (and night) on Friday. Drove non-stop from St. Louis to Ft. Lauderdale thinking I might have to evacuate the motorhome. Things are looking better now but still watching closely. Did manage to get a few fills on Friday.
STX: Book ’em!
Bought to Close STX SEP 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for .80)
TNA: Book, re-sell, and roll
Bought to Close TNA AUG 30 2019 53.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for 2.95)
Sold TNA SEP 06 2019 52.5 Calls @ 1.76
Rolled TNA AUG 30 2019 51.5 Call to SEP 06 2019 52.5 Call @ .20 credit
ULTA: She’s ugly. Didn’t see a 5x expected move coming. Time to start digging out!
Sold ULTA SEP 13 2019 265.0 Call @ 2.80
$ULTA iron condor
With the stock down 30% and IV still high (IVR 58), selling some premium down here. Sold 9/20 210/220/260/270 iron condor @ 2.60 with the stock at 239.70. Put and call short strikes at 21 and 17 delta. Not expecting a huge bounce back–looking for the stock to flounder around in this 20 dollar range for a while and for premium to bleed out over the next week or so.
AMBA miss
#Earnings. Wrong about the trade, but right about it being low probability.
Closed call side of $AMBA Aug30/Sept06 46.5 #DoubleCalendar for .00 to avoid assignment. Bought yesterday for .369
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 3rd 2820/2840-2975/2995 condors for 1.60. IV: 13.48%, SPX: 2923
Expiring: Aug 30th 2845/2865-2955/2975 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
Econ Calendar for week of 9/2/19
#Jobs report is Friday, 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=2&month=9&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
Jeff, downloaded desktop app and…
Jeff, downloaded desktop app and now seems to be OK, Thanks
Test
Test, Wow it worked??
#closing TRTN Bought Sept. 20,…
#closing TRTN
Bought Sept. 20, 30 put for .45, sold for 90 on Aug. 26. You guys will have to recalculate the RoR on that.
Thanks always to Tabortrader for this ticker.
It’s ex-div on Sept. 4, .52 dividend.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte. Sold to Open Aug 30th $SPX 2845/2865-2955/2975 condors for 1.10. Was on the road, so stopped in time to place order just after market close.
Taking profits on DIS
Bought to close $DIS 9/20 130/120 bull put spread @ .40. Sold for 1.57 on 8/7.
#tastytradefollow GLD Sold Oct. 18,…
Sold Oct. 18, 128/138/149/159 #ironcondor for 1.86. GLD down a little to 144.
ULTA
#Earnings #JadeLizards – I only allow myself one of these high dollar stocks at a time in this account but with my ISRG lizard being blown out to the upside (465/495/500) it’s pretty safe so taking a shot with ULTA.
Sold ULTA AUG 30 2019 315.0/345.0/350.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.76
Put side at the expected move and just under the 200ma…
OLLI Another Fine Mess I am Getting Into?
AMBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 4, 2019 AC +0.07%
March 5, 2019 AC +3.74%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +18.48% Biggest UP
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC +13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +14.29%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%
Avg (+ or -) 10.13%
Bias -1.79%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 46.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 42.36 to 50.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 41.79 to 51.21
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 36.11 to 56.89
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 55.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 30, 2019 AC +1.50%
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
Avg (+ or -) 5.53%
Bias -0.26%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 115.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 311.92 to 358.08
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 310.30 to 346.62
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 285.37 to 371.55
Based on UP max only (+8.3%): 355.66
Open to requests for other symbols.
ANF closing
#Earnings. closed first batch of $ANF 16.5 puts for 2.00. Long Strangles bought yesterday for 2.50. Waiting to see if we might drop further.
#earnings #closing FIVE Bought 105/120/121…
Bought 105/120/121 #jadelizard 1.00, sold yesterday for 2.20.
I was considering a 100/140 strangle yesterday. There wasn’t much liquidity at those strikes and it would now take awhile to close with the big up move. Jade Lizard wins this one.
Thanks to fuzzball for starting me thinking about using these for earnings.
ANF
STC 16.5/17 strangle for a loss of 1.05 but, the Jade lizard on FIVE should cover that loss.
Good morning from Seattle
#Markets Opening was highest $TICK since Feb 2018. Is it over?
#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Sept….
#earnings #jadelizard FIVE
Sold Sept. 20, 105/120/121 for 2.20
Volatility
Could be coming in a bit. Maybe it will bleed some more option premium out before the 3 day weekend. Of course you have to allow for 3 days of tweets so you never know. The front end of the curve (http://vixcentral.com/) is surprisingly back in contango although the rest of the curve is still a mess. Watching closely, obviously 🙂
Shopify call spread
$SHOP looking like it’s peaked at least in the short term after a nice runup. Printing a red candle today. Sold 9/20 420/430 bear call spread @ 2.36 with the stock around 392.
#earnings #closing TIF ADSK bought…
bought ADSK, Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 1.00, sold yesterday for 2.44
bought TIF, Sept. 20, 75/84/85 #jadelizard .95, sold yesterday for 1.57.
SPLK still refusing to cooperate from earnings the other day grrr
As always, thanks to Jeff for the data that guides the trade decisions.
SPX 5-dte
#SPX1dte. Sold $SPX 2760/2785-2950/2975 condors for 3.00, IV: 16.78%, SPX 2884
UVXY call spread
Sold 10/18 45/55 bear call spreads @ 1.27
ANF long strangle
#earnings. Bought to open $ANF Aug 30th 16.5/17 long strangles for 2.50.
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30%
Avg (+ or -) 16.96%
Bias 2.56%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.99 to 19.21
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.79 to 19.41
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 12.21 to 20.99
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 20.57
Open to requests for other symbols.
FIVE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight (added late, so I missed it on the calendar). Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias 5.00%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 115.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 105.84 to 124.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 107.58 to 122.42
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 89.86 to 140.14
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 111.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte closed early
#SPX1dte. BTC $SPX Aug 30th 2745/2765-2935/2955 condors for .85. Sold Monday for 3.00.
Today’s 2780/2800-2920/2940 condors look good to expire, sold yesterday for 1.00.
TIF closing
#Earnings. Closed first batch for 1.00. $TIF Aug30/Sep06 85 #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .48.
DRIP roll
With oil continuing to be so weak and the inverse ETF not coming in ($DRIP currently at 119), I rolled my 9/20 115 call up and out to 10/18 130 call @ 1.21 credit. Up 15 points on the strike and out of the money by around 10 points.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 28th 2780/2800-2920/2940 condors for 1.00. IV 17.96%, SPX 2871.
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Another one…
Bought to Close WYNN AUG 30 2019 112.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.20)
Sold WYNN SEP 13 2019 108.0 Call @ 2.50
Collected the 1.00 divvy today also…
A TRADE:
OSTK STO 8/30/19 16.5 PUTS @.80
VXX added
#VXXGame. Bought $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.00, adding to my position. Avg price now 1.302, started on Jan 22nd, 2019.
TRADES:
OSTK BTO STOCK @16.93
OSTK STO 8/30/19 17.0 CALLS @.80
#earnings #jadelizard TIF Sold Sept….
#earnings #jadelizard TIF #shortstrangles ADSK
TIF sold Sept. 20, 75/84/85 for 1.58.
ADSK sold Sept. 20, 125/175 strangle for 2.44
Thanks for the data Jeff.
TRADES:
PLAN BTO STOCK @54.99 & 56.40
OSTK STO 8/30/19 19.0 CALLS @.50
TIF earnings analysis
#Earnings $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 4, 2019 BO +2.59%
March 22, 2019 BO +3.14%
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.31%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 1.15%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.66 to 91.34
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 79.99 to 90.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 65.21 to 104.79
Based on DOWN max only (-11.8%): 74.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADSK earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADSK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 23, 2019 AC -4.90%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -1.98%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +9.74%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +15.32% Biggest UP
May 24, 2018 AC -4.44%
March 6, 2018 AC +14.87%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -15.85% Buggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +3.94%
May 18, 2017 AC +14.69%
March 2, 2017 AC -2.29%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC -3.52%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC +8.11%
Avg (+ or -) 8.30%
Bias 2.81%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 137.13 to 162.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.54 to 162.46
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 126.23 to 173.78
Based on UP max only (+15.3%): 172.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 2745/2765-2935/2955 condors for 3.00. IV 21.3%, SPX 2867.
Annualized returns?
How the heck are they calculated on a put sale? Since I’m really bored today I tried to put this in writing. I’m not the greatest math guy out there so absolutely looking for corrections and errors here.
This assumes 100 percent cash secured required like in a typical tax deferred retirement account.
————————————————————————————–
Calculating Annualized Returns On A Put Sale
(Strike Price x 100) – Premium Received = Margin Required
then:
Premium Received / Margin Required = Actual Return
then:
365 / Days in Position = Possible Trades Per year
then:
Possible Trades Per Year x Actual Return = Annualized Return
EWZ example:
3600 – 105 = 3495 (margin required)
then:
105 / 3495 = .0300429 (return for 53 day trade)
then:
365 / 53 = 6.8867924 (possible trades per year)
then:
.0300429 x 6.8867924 = .2068992 (annualized return)
20.7 annualized rounded
#earnings #closing CRM August 22,…
SPX
BTC $SPX 2940/2950 8/30 #BeCS @.90. Basis was $2.00 after a couple of rolls. Glad to have the buying power back.
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Starter position…
Sold EWZ OCT 18 2019 36.0 Put @ 1.05
20.7% annualized if held to expiration…
#ironcondor AAPL Sold Oct. 18,…
#ironcondor AAPL
Sold Oct. 18, 180/190/220/230 for 3.76
#earnings MOMO Jeff do you…
#earnings MOMO
Jeff do you have MOMO info? Thank you
HD – Close
BTC $HD 1.925 Puts @0.4 – was the put side of a #jadelizard #earnings trade which was STO @1.84 on 8/19/2019.
SPX 1-dte remove risk
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2755 put for .05. Don’t trust downside… just a tweet or Chinese government statement away from 100-pt drop!
2735/2755-2915/2935 condors sold for 1.30 on Friday.
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Another round…
Bought to Close WYNN AUG 30 2019 115.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.54)
Sold WYNN SEP 13 2019 110.0 Call @ 2.49
#shortputs TRTN Sold Sept. 20,…
#shortputs TRTN
Sold Sept. 20, 30 put for .90
SPX
Rolled 8/23/2019 $SPX 2935/2945 #BuCS for 8/30 same strikes +@0.60. Jumped too soon, but wasn’t sure where things were going this morning, and didn’t want to be caught ITM. Have been kicking this can down the road for a while. $2.00 basis after today’s roll, and mark closed at $1.075. Could/should have waited until after lunch, and then just let it expire.
Sold today & Expiring $SPX 8/23/2019 2880/2895 #BuCS @1.10.
Hoping for a quiet news weekend and some recovery next week. Not holding my breath though.
Options Bistro 