#Earnings Visa seems a better candidate than AAPL for the neutral play. It has not moved much recently, but did have some bigger moves a couple years ago. I’ll play for another small move.
STO $V Oct 28th 81/83/85 iron butterfly for 1.55. Max loss .45.
Here are the 5-DAY moves over last three years:
Thu 07/21/2016 AC -0.10%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC -4.60%
Thu 01/28/2016 BO -3.63%
Mon 11/02/2015 BO 0.94%
Thu 07/23/2015 AC 4.50%
Thu 04/30/2015 AC 3.93%
Thu 01/29/2015 AC 7.25%
Wed 10/29/2014 AC 16.33%
Thu 07/24/2014 AC -5.40%
Thu 04/24/2014 AC -0.33%
Thu 01/30/2014 BO 2.39%
Wed 10/30/2013 AC -2.72%

#Earnings Was considering a tight condor, but APPL’s average 5-day move has been 6% over the last three years. Not sure if I want to play it, as farther OTM strikes not too rich in premium. Other thoughts?
Tue 07/26/2016 AC 7.79%
Tue 04/26/2016 AC -10.16%
Tue 01/26/2016 AC -2.65%
Tue 10/27/2015 AC 4.32%
Tue 07/21/2015 AC -4.78%
Mon 04/27/2015 AC -2.78%
Tue 01/27/2015 AC 7.34%
Mon 10/20/2014 AC 5.47%
Tue 07/22/2014 AC 3.11%
Wed 04/23/2014 AC 13.21%
Mon 01/27/2014 AC -9.06%
Mon 10/28/2013 AC -1.86%

#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX Jan 20th 2017 105.71 put for 2.82.
Have orders in for several other puts but this is the only one that filled before the bounce.

#Earnings Although it would ave been best to close the Oct 21st 115 calls under $4 on Tues or Wed, at least I closed most of them this morning under $8. Closed all but one then was away from the computer when it shot to the moon. Closed the last one for 10.50. Avg price on closing all: 8.35.

Now working on the rolls.

#Earnings STO NFLX Oct 28th 120 put for 1.20. Working on rolling 115 calls today. Considering Dec 120/125 strangle for starters

#Earnings STO NFLX Oct 28th 130 calls for .50

#Earnings Working around my short Oct 21st 115 calls… I did not sell puts, as I should have yesterday and today. On today’s surge I am adding calls: STO $NFLX Oct 28th 129 calls for .52.

Will get on the ball and add puts when I can.

#Earnings Eneded up with two 650 puts (2.15) and two long 600 puts (.25), so put spreads for 1.90.

#Earnings Sold to Open $ISRG 650 put for 2.15. Biggest UP move: 17.7% , Biggest DOWN move: -11.5% , Average move: 6.3% . This trade is 8.6% OTM. I will probably add to this, and also buy 600 puts for disaster protection. -11.5% done move was in April 2014 and the lat time ISRG moved down big.

#Earnings For the Iron Butterfly, your max loss is small if the Stock moves up or down too much for your trade to work. With expiration on Friday, we have 4 days for price to settle back to 170 giving us max profit. Right now, the trade is closable for breakeven. It is okay to do that, but in my view isn’t the point… you accepted the small max risk and should be okay taking that loss on Friday is we don’t return to 170. IB’s are thread-the-needle type trades that require patience.

I am waiting and watching for a cheaper exit between now and Friday’s close.

#Earnings After a four straight quarters of down moves, NFLX resumes its huge moves UP on earnings. At least it is easier to manage ITM 115 calls than it was ITM 700 calls.

#Earnings Not a big mover on earnings: Biggest UP move: 3.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.6%, Average move: 1.6%.

Going for neutral iron butterfly: STO $GS Oct 21st 167.5/170/172.5 IB for 2.05. Max risk = .45.

#Earnings Over last three years, over five days after earnings, Biggest UP move: 25.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -19.9%, Average move: 12.7%. Seems to be an upside bias to earnings premiums. Looking to sell the 85 put for .53, 14 points OTM, and the 115 call for .75, 16 points OTM. The farther out call is selling for more than the closer put.

These strikes are 14.1% and 16.2% OTM respectively.

STO $NFLX Oct 21st 85/115 strangles for 1.27.

#Earnings BTC $AZO Oct 21st 800 call for .20. Sold for 2.76 on 9/21. Now flat in AZO; all earnings trades closed yesterday and today.

#Earnings Bought to close $AZO Oct 21st 690 put for .20. Sold for 3.07 on 9/21. Now just waiting for the 800 call to close.

#Earnings Bought to close $AZO 680/690/800/810 iron condors for .20. Sold for 2.00 on Sept 21st.

I have an additional naked strangle at the same short strikes. I have orders in to close each option at .20; thought those orders would fill before the condor.

#Earnings BTC NKE Sept 30th 55 calls for .10. Now need a rally back to 55 to close the puts.

#Earnings For the earnings 53/55/57 iron butterfly, the best outcome would be to get the down flush today, followed by buying into Friday. You may consider closing the short 55 call today, currently going for .25. This will increase your risk by .25 but allow an easier exit should we rally into Friday.

I will look for a deeper flush and consider closing the 55 call if I can get closer to .10.

#Earnings volatility but looking decent for our neutral trades.

#Earnings The small move is a thing of beauty. With 30 days to expiry, I have orders in to close naked options at .20, and the iron condors at .40. Will close earlier if margin becomes an issue, or if price starts moving dramatically.

#Earnings STO $AZO Oct 21st 690/800 strangle for 5.85

#Earnings I call this a “classic” because it is naked selling standard Iceman taught many of us, with my classic earnings trade analysis. There are 31 days until Oct monthly expiration. Over the last 12 reports, AZO’s moves over 34 days: Biggest UP move: 7.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.3%, Average move: 3.9%. (Also note that its maximum swings between 1 & 34 days never exceeded these percentages)

If we give room for its largest move of 7.1%, the 690/800 strangle is at least 7.3% OTM on each side. You can sell that strangle for about 6.00. Of course, you have to have the margin power, and you have to be ready in case we get an outlier move.

The safer bet… a 10-wide condor at same short strikes is about 1.75-2.00.

#Earnings Closed half of my $AVGO Sept 2nd 177.5 puts for 4.50 before the close, so a 2.20 loss (from 177.5/172.5 put spread sold yesterday for 2.30). Then I saw something shiny and didn’t close the other half on time, so I will be assigned some shares.

#Earnings AVGO: Going for a Sept 2nd 177.5/172.5 put spread for 2.30. Will need some intraday down movement for the fill.
AMBA: Trying the old fashion naked strangle: Sept 2nd 65/79 are outside it’s max historical moves. Asking .95, no fill yet.

#Earnings CRM on deck after the close… fairly bullish moves over last three years. Share your trade ideas!
Average move: 6.4%
May 18, 2016 AC 4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC 11.03%
Nov. 18, 2015 AC 4.25%
Aug. 20, 2015 AC 1.96%
May 20, 2015 AC 3.91%
Feb. 25, 2015 AC 11.72%
Nov. 19, 2014 AC -4.45%
Aug. 21, 2014 AC 7.34%
May 20, 2014 AC -5.10%
Feb. 27, 2014 AC -5.81%
Nov. 18, 2013 AC -4.99%
Aug. 29, 2013 AC 12.55%

#Earnings Thanks to Bobbie for helping find the strikes….
Sold to Open $PANW Sept 2nd 122/127/155/160 iron condor for 1.25. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 10.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -12.4%, Average move: 6.1%. My short strikes are 11% and 8.6% OTM respectively. Definitely more risk to upside, can try the 157.5/162.50 as an alternative.

#Earnings If the indices and gold look boring again, maybe we can find something in $PANW earnings. It’s average move has been about 6%, although last quarter it had an outlier -12% move DOWN. Considering a condor with shorts at 135 and 148, giving me 1.83, risking 3.17. Breakevens about 6% up or down.

Any other thoughts?

#Earnings Sold to Open $LOW Aug 19th 79.5/81.5/83.5 iron butterfly for 1.48. Max risk .52. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 6.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.2%, Average move: 3.0%. Price needs to be at less than a 2% move in either direction by Friday’s close to profit.