PNC (slightly) bearish condor

#Earnings Sold $PNC Apr 12th 124/127-128/131 #IronCondor for 2.00.

Risking 1.00 to make 2.00. Sightly bearish due to its recent history.

PNC earnings analysis

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Comparing 1-point-wide, 3-point-wing #IronCondor trades, PNC comes out with a much better R/R than does $JPM. PNC has a slightly lower average move, but weighted toward downside.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%

Avg (+ or -) 1.16%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 128.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 124.74 to 132.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.01 to 129.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 121.33 to 135.67
Based on UP max only (+0.7%): 129.43

Open to requests for other symbols.

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
April 14, 2016 BO +0.93%

Avg (+ or -) 1.97%
Bias 1.41%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.79 to 59.21
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 55.88 to 58.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 54.29 to 59.71
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 56.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#ironcondor, #pietrades

#ironcondor TSLA Sold May 17,…

#ironcondor TSLA

Sold May 17, 215/220/320/325 for 1.83.

#earnings AVGO Sold April 18,…

#earnings AVGO

Sold April 18, 230/240/300/310 #ironcondor for 1.85, surprised to be filled. Break evens are outside past 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff.

CRM condor

#Earnings Sold to Open $CRM March 8th 150/152.5-175/177.5 #IronCondor for 1.15. I put the order in earlier and didn’t expect it to drop this much. But still looking okay based on historical moves (analysis posted Friday.)

Biggest UP move: 11.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.4%, Average move: 3.7%. This is trade is +11.5% and -2.9% OTM.

AZO closed

#Earnings #IronCondor Bougtht to close $AZO March 1st 940/945 call spreads for .35. Leaving put spread to expire or shorts to close for .05. Condor sold for 2.30 on Monday.

#ironcondor AMZN #shortputspread NVDA AMZN…

#ironcondor AMZN #shortputspread NVDA

AMZN Following Mike at TastyTrade, sold April 18, 1480/1500/1800/1810 for 4.83
NVDA Trading Fuzzball’s fav-sold March 15, 140/145 for .57 (not selling naked 140 puts until I’m out of assigned positions in AAPL and WYNN).

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings Sold to close $UAA Feb 15th 21 calls for .16. This was a sad one; bought the #LongStraddle for 2.50… the swings this week afforded opportunities to cut the loss to less than half, but my orders barely missed getting filled again and again. So although I did sell a few for 1.60, the stock ended the week right at my strike… not good for a long straddle!

#CoveredCalls #Assignment $PVTL stock called away via 18 and 19 calls. This was a September earnings trade, was assigned at 22.50 and through multiple rounds of covered calls I’m exiting at about break-even.

#DoubleCalendar Taking assignment of $NTAP stock, cost basis 64.79.

#IronCondor Closed $DECK short 145 calls for 1.30. Was able to exit some at .50 and .20, so overall this trade will be a small winner or a small loser across my accounts. Condor sold for .86 on Jan 31st.

Earnings trades, CMI, SNAP, DECK partially closed

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close partial $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 dbl cal for 1.20. Waiting for price to move closer to my strike to close more. Bought yesterday for .65

#LongStraddle Sold to close partial $SNAP Feb 8th 7 calls for 1.75. Watching for a move higher. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.03.

#IronCondor Bought to close partial $DECK Feb 15th 105/110/145/150 condors for .50. Sold Thursday for .86.

EW closed, and remaining earnings trades

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 dbl cals for 3.25 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.57.

#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.

DECK condor

#Earnoings #IronCondor Sold to Open $DECK Feb 1st 105/110/145/150 iron condors for .85

AMZN condor

#Earnings #IronCondor Sold to Open $AMZN Feb 1st 1590/1600-1870/1880 iron condors for 2.00.

#earnings #ironcondor BA Sold Feb….

#earnings #ironcondor BA

Sold Feb. 15, 335/340/390/395 IC for 1.31

BA earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $BA Feb 1st 345/350/380/385 #IronCondor for 1.78. About 3.8% on downside and 4.5% on upside.

#shortstock MO #ironcondor HD MO…

#shortstock MO #ironcondor HD

MO Jan. 14, sold short 100 shares of MO at 48.29, bought to cover today for 46.79.
HD Jan. 8 sold 155/160/190/195 IC for 1.02, bought today for .51
DENN up today arrgghh

#ironcondor HD Modified TastTrade idea,…

#ironcondor HD

Modified TastyTrade idea, sold Feb. 15, 155/160/190/195 for 1.02

#ironcondor DIA Sold Feb. 15,…

#ironcondor DIA #shortstrangles SQ
DIA Sold Feb. 15, 215/220/250/255 for 1.36
SQ sold Feb. 15, 45/75 strangle for 1.48

#ironcondor SPX sell BeCS Jan…

#ironcondor
SPX sell BeCS Jan 02 2530/2540 for 1.25cr this morning, expiring worthless it appears
buy BePS 2510/2500 Jan 02 for $4.00, sold hour later for $6.50

Off to a good start after nice finish last month.

#earnings #ironcondor ADBE Sold Dec….

#earnings #ironcondor ADBE

Sold Dec. 21 225/230/265/270 for 1.29, right around the max moves, thanks Jeff.

#earnings #ironcondor COST sold Dec….

#earnings #ironcondor COST

sold Dec. 21, 210/215/240/245 for 1.05, right at the max moves, thanks for the data Jeff.

#earnings #closing #ironcondor NVDA Nov….

#earnings #closing #ironcondor NVDA
Nov. 15, sold 125/135/255/265 for 1.02. NVDA went as low as 133, now back to 160. Closed today for .62.

#ironcondor CRM TastyTrade idea, sold…

#ironcondor CRM

TastyTrade idea, sold Jan. 18, 105/115/155/165 for 1.57.

#ironcondor SPX sold today’s 2690/2700…

#ironcondor
SPX sold today’s 2690/2700 calls and 2640/2630 puts for 0.90cr. So far so good as prices remains mid-range 2650 to 2670. My second attempt at IC trade.

TSLA condor

#IronCondor Sold to open $TSLA Nov 23rd 340/350/380/390 condors for 2.94. Expire Friday. This is a bullish placement… I actually meant to make it dead center but screwed up the put strikes. It does seem headed higher in honey-badger fashion.

#ironcondor BA TastyTrade idea, sold…

#ironcondor BA

TastyTrade idea, sold Dec. 21 300/305/370/375 for 1.36

#earnings NVDA AMAT NVDA sold…

#earnings NVDA AMAT
NVDA sold Dec. 21, 125/135/255/265 #ironcondor for 1.02
AMAT sold Dec. 21, 29/39 #shortstrangles for 1.01
Thanks for the data Jeff

#ironcondor AMZN TastyTrade idea, sold…

#ironcondor AMZN

TastyTrade idea, sold Dec. 21 1605/1610/1935/1940 for 1.97.

#ironcondor AMZN Closed yesterday’s IC…

#ironcondor AMZN

Closed yesterday’s IC for 1.10. sold yesterday for 2.03.

AAPL #ironcondor Couldn’t get filled…

AAPL #ironcondor

Couldn’t get filled on TWLO strangles yesterday, so it goes.

AAPL sold Dec. 21, 180/190/230/240 for 1.52.

FB and ANTM closed

#Earnings
Sold $FB Nov 2nd 145 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.65.
BTC $ANTM Nov 2nd 277.5/282.5 call spreads for .20. #IronCondor sold yesterday for 1.10. Leaving 247.5/242.5 put side to expire or close cheaply, since it’s pretty far OTM.

#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN October…

#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN
October 25, sold Nov. 16 IC for 1.75, bought today for 1.26.

#earnings #ironcondor AMZN Following the…

#earnings #ironcondor AMZN
Following the AMZN condors, sold Nov. 16, 1450/1460/2010/2220 for 1.75, thanks all

GOOGL condor

#Earnings #ironcondor
Sold to open $GOOGL Oct 26th 980/1000/1175/1195 condors for 3.00
Biggest UP move: 5.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.4% , Average move: 3.5%.
Stock is up to 1110, so my strikes are +5.9 and -9.9% OTM.

AMZN condor

#Earnings #IronCondor
Sold to open $AMZN Oct 26th 1575/1600/1950/1975 condors for 3.75.
IV is jacked up on most, so it allows for wide strangles and condors. Biggest UP move: 13.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 4.7%. My trade is +11.4% on the upside and -8.3% on the downside. It is a bullish positioning because of the historical ranges, but even if we drop I don’t think we can get to 1600.

#earnings #closing NFLX Oct. 16…

#earnings #closing NFLX

Oct. 16 sold 265/270/400/405 #ironcondor for 1.01, bought today for 56.
Oct. 15, followed Ramie and sold a 410/420 #shortcallspreads for 1.26, bought today for .25.

#earnings #ironcondor NFLX Sold Nov….

#earnings #ironcondor NFLX
Sold Nov. 16, 265/270/400/405 for 1.01, it was either that or the short straddle for $4,375 heh heh

#spxcampaign #ironcondor Afternoon all. Popping…

#spxcampaign #ironcondor Afternoon all. Popping in here to check up on the day. All three of the call sides of my IC’s were closed. SPX Oct 15th 2985/3005 and SPX Oct 17th 3020/3000 @ .20. AMZN Oct 19th 2160/2180 @ .30. These offset some of the losses from the Put sides taken yesterday.

#spxcampaign #ironcondor Sold to open…

#spxcampaign #ironcondor Sold to open Oct 15th 2850 / 2830 BuPS for 1.10 when SPX was at 2920 Stop loss on the IC is 3.65 with profit set at .20

AMZN Afternoon all. #ironcondor Legged…

AMZN Afternoon all. #ironcondor Legged into an Oct 19th Iron Condor with AMZN @ 2010+/-
1860/1840 BuPS @ 1.33 and 2160/2180 BeCS @ 1.23. Profit targets either side is .30 with a stop loss at 4.10.

#ironcondor #closing TSLA bought Oct….

#ironcondor #closing TSLA
bought Oct. 19 255/260/340/345 for 1.33, sold Sept. 25 for 1.57, small victory.

#ironcondor TSLA Sold Oct. 19…

#ironcondor TSLA
Sold Oct. 19 255/260/340/345 for 1.57, TSLA is at 300.

#ironcondor #closing AMZN September 18,…

#ironcondor #closing AMZN

September 18, sold October 19, 1795/1800/2050/2055 for 2.04, bought today for 1.66.

#ironcondor BABA TastyTrade idea sold…

#ironcondor BABA

TastyTrade idea sold Oct. 19, 150/155/175/180 for 2.33, BABA is just under 165.

#ironcondor TSLA Short strikes from…

#ironcondor TSLA
Short strikes from TastyTrade idea, sold Oct. 19, 210/220/355/365 for 1.63, TSLA is around 290.

#ironcondor CMG August 15, sold…

#ironcondor CMG
August 15, sold a Sept. 21, 485/490/550/555 for 2.22. On August 27, CMG started this week long decline (again-so much for the 3 day rule), down another 8.50 today to 4.75, decided to cut and run, get back in if 475 is actual support. Bought put spread for 3.00.

#earnings #ironcondor DE Sold Sept….

#earnings #ironcondor DE
Sold Sept. 21, 120/125/150/155 for 1.18, Deere is at 137

#ironcondor TSLA sold Sept. 21…

#ironcondor TSLA #shortputspread #closing ANET

Sold Sept. 21 295/300/375/380 for 2.00, followed Beef at TT
ANET Yesterday sold Sept. 21, 230/240 put spread for 1.39, bought this morning for .85.

#ironcondor #shortstrangles CMG AA Follwed…

#ironcondor #shortstrangles CMG AA
Follwed a couple trades from TT
AA sold Sept. 21 37/45 strangle for 1.40
CMG sold 485/490/550/555 for 2.22 CMG up big today

#earnings #ironcondor HD Sold Sept….

#earnings #ironcondor HD
Sold Sept. 21 170/180/210/220 for 1.17

#ironcondor TSLA Sold Sept. 21…

#ironcondor TSLA #shortputs #rolling AAOI
TSLA Sold Sept. 21 235/245/420/430 for 1.27
AAOI Rolled Aug. 17, 40 put sold yesterday to September 18 for 1.76.

#dividends #shortcallspreads #rolling #earnings AAPL…

#dividends #shortcallspreads #rolling #earnings AAPL
I sold a Sept. 170/175/205/210 #ironcondor for AAPL earnings. AAPL is ex-div tomorrow, not certain someone would exercise the 205, but rolled it to Oct. 210/220 for .92

#earnings #ironcondor AAPL sold September…

#earnings #ironcondor AAPL
sold September 21, 170/175/205/210 for 1.42

DE put spread

Sold $DE Aug 10 135/130 BuPS @ .90. Using the weekly expiration before expected earnings on 8/17. Delta of the short strike is 27. Spread is below recent support from June/July.

#ironcondor

#ironcondor DE #coveredcallcampaign PBR Idea…

#ironcondor DE #coveredcallcampaign PBR
Idea from TT August 17, 125/130/150/155 for 2.07, DE is at 141, earnings Aug. 17
PBR Closed July 20, 10 covered call for 9.57, bought June 8 for 8.90

#earnings #ironcondor COST bought June…

#earnings #ironcondor COST
bought June 15 180/185/210/215 for .30, sold yesterday for .77.

COST earning

#Earnings Sold to Open $COST June 1st 195 puts for 1.55. Biggest UP move: 3.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.0%, Average move: 2.8%. This trade is -1.8% OTM. This is a bullish trade. I’ll probably convert to a long position if my puts go ITM.

#ironcondor

#ironcondor AMZN Sold June 15…

#ironcondor AMZN
Sold June 15 1495/1500/1710/1720 for 2.51, around 100 points either direction.

#ironcondor XOM Idea from TastyTrade…

#ironcondor XOM

Idea from TastyTrade sold June 8, 75/77/83/85 for .64

#jadelizard #ironcondor CELG Tastytrade idea…

#jadelizard #ironcondor CELG
Tastytrade idea July 20, 70/90/90/95 for 6.96 (modified from 60) , profitable above 82.82

#jadelizard #ironcondor FB A little…

#jadelizard #ironcondor FB

A little more enticing than long term short puts on cable companies, followed Fauzia at Tastytrade , June 15, 170/175/175/195 for 7.35

#ironcondor ADBE Tastytrade follow, June…

#ironcondor ADBE

Tastytrade follow, June 18, 180/190/240/250 for 2.67

#ironcondor COST Sold May 18,…

#ironcondor COST

Sold May 18, 160/170/200/210 for 1.17, stock around 185

#earnings #ironcondor FDX March 20…

#earnings #ironcondor FDX

March 20 sold a 225/230/270/275 April 20 earnings iron condor for 1.10. It went as low as 228 during these crazy days, decided to exit today for .70.

#ironcondor AMZN March 28, sold…

#ironcondor AMZN
March 28, sold April 20 IC for 2.00, closed today for .84. IV is still really high but I’m taking the gain.

Expiration /Rolled LABU CC / AMZN IC / Close Early BIDU BECS / FB BUPS

#optionsexpiration
$SPX 2500/2525 BUPS Thank you @jeffcp66

#shortcalls
$LABU BTC 3/29 90 calls STO 4/13 87 calls for 2.14 credit
#ironcondor
$AMZN STO 1180/1190/1610/1600 IC for 1.95 Thank you @thomberg1201
#shortputs
$FB STO 4/20 135/145 BUPS at 1.85

Closed Early
$BIDU 4/20 290/280 BECS at .15 STO at 2.05

#ironcondor AMZN 100% IV rank,…

#ironcondor AMZN

100% IV rank, down another 70 today sold April 20, 1180/1190/1600/1610 for 2.00

#ironcondor DIA followed Fauzia at…

#ironcondor DIA

followed Fauzia at TT May 18, 254/264/217/227 for 2.50

FB update

Hi everyone! The FB #PutRatioJadeLizard from yesterday was closed today for 33% profit. My target was 50% but, as you know, when a underlying hits the right-side slope of a Jade Lizard risk graph the accrued profits start dropping off. But I opened a new #IronCondor on it. Because the alternate sides have different strike widths I skewed the contract amounts.
Apr 20 150/155/182.5/185 5×7 IC (5 on put side, 7 on call side), net credit 5.83, BE 153.80/183.30

I plan to layer in a lot of SPY Put Ratio Jade Lizards whenever there’s a 20DTE on the chain.
Today: Apr 11 +273p/-272p x2 @2.37cr, -275/277 CCS @ .69 cr

A long time ago I wrote about waiting for a 3-of-5 bar 1-standard deviation up move before trusting a rally. It’s looking like that might be a good rally indicator, only because we can’t seem to barely get a 1-SD up move at all. In SPX we now have 16 straight bars I think with a 20-day 1SD up move rolling total of 1. I’ve only found 3 times in history going back to 1987 where we’ve gone this long with so few 1SD up moves. It speaks to the choppy nature of markets, and to not get faked out on rallies until a solid string of 1SD up moves unfolds. I’m watching it every day, will obviously keep posting about it.

Sue

#pietrades

#ironcondor GOOGL Followed Beef at…

#ironcondor GOOGL
Followed Beef at TT April 20, 1030/1035/1160/1165 for 1.95

#ironcondor SPY Sold May 18,…

#ironcondor SPY

Sold May 18, 244/250/283/289 for 1.32

#earnings #ironcondor OST Closed yesterday’s…

#earnings #ironcondor COST

Closed yesterday’s March 16 earnings IC for about .50, sold for about 1.50,(for 2) the way it is supposed to, and always should work. Thanks Jeff

#spxcampaign $SPX STO 3/2 2635/2660…

#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 3/2 2635/2660 BUPS at 5.70 then $SPX BTC 3/2 2635/2660 BUPS at 3.30

#ironcondor
$AAPL STO 4/20 150/160/195/185 at 2.75

#longcalls
$WYNN BTO 1/18/2019 165/175 BUCS at 4.25

SPX Campaign / Closed Early SPX WUBA OLED CRM WYNN / Rolled DVN

#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 2/23 2665/2690 BUPS @ 4.75 and @ 6.70
$SPX STO 3/16 2475/2500 BUPS @ 1.40
$SPX STO 3/16 2875/2850 BUPS @ 1.80 Thank you for all @jeffcp66

#ironcondor
$BIDU STO 3/16 210/220/270/270 IC for 2.50

Closed Early I’m a little gun shy
$SPX BTC 2/21 2675/2700 BUPS @ 5.00 STO 2/13 @ 16.80 Thank you again kind sir @jeffcp66
$WUBA STC 2/16 75/85 BUCS @ 3.73 BTO 1/5 @ 5.00 Several days ago it was nearly 100% loss. Today only 26% loss. Of course before that which should not be named happened there was significant profit. Will probably open another BUCS in this name in hopes of earnings run. Earnings 2/26.
$OLED BTC 2/16 BUPS @ 7.00 STO @ 2.55 Made up some ground recently on $AAPL resurgence.
$CRM STC 2/16 105/115 BUCS @ 6.72. BTO at 3.50 Happy 😉
$WYNN BTC 2/16 150/160 BUPS @ .20 (GTC order) STO 1/30 at 2.84

Rolled
$DVN Rolled 2/16 41 put to 3/9 41 put for even.

#earnings #shortputspread DE Sold March…

#earnings #ironcondor DE
Sold March 16, 140/150/180/190 for 1.70